March 2020 was also technically still in a bear market, at least with a lower macro high and a 50% drop already. So although a rare liquidity event, it's not something to wait patiently for in a bull market.
I agree with quite a bit of what you said in your post, but the technical definition of a bear market in terms of bitcoin can go fuck itself, as far as I am concerned.
That's fair enough, given in the
long long-term, Bitcoin has never been in a bear market you could argue. It's never
really broken below the 200 Week MA.
Fuck that.
I am not saying that either.
We have known about bitcoin cycles for as long as I have been into bitcoin, so it's not like I am saying anything new. We can attempt to recognize the cycles and attempt to analyze in accordance with various bitcoin dynamics or we can be loosey goosey about it and say that bitcoin is in a bull run forever or we can attempt some variations.. so there should be hardly any need for me to reassert some of the underlying price frameworks that I continue to attempt to assess bitcoin's price dynamics within... but I will repeat just for the sake of clarity - and currently we have 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles.. and yes there are some vaguenesses in interpretation even within those frameworks.. yet I have also repeatedly argued that models that strive to denigrate those ones or fail to account for them or spin their own models are likely going to be lacking.. and for sure, none of us are going to necessarily agree upon where such balancing of proper attribution or weighting should be.
I guess I mean mid-term bear market was what made the covid crash possible, whereas the technicals are very different right now.
Yes.. I quibble with a lot of folks about this kind of terminology in terms of do we call corrections or short term to medium term momentum as bear markets.. and I am not going to do it.. .
Sure from time to time, we may well be in correction mode that can be described in a variety of ways, but I doubt that it is very helpful at all to be describing the overall dynamics of bitcoin as bouncing between bull and bear and bull and all of that, unless it is attempted to be captured within already existing data that has so far followed four year cycles.. and surely of course, we may well not continue to follow such 4-year cycles, but personally, I am not going to prematurely assume them to be dead, pronounce them as dead or even use terminology that bounces back and forth between bear and bull markets that ends up downplaying actual BTC price dynamics that I believe to continue to exist.
I had stated this a number of times that it seems that bitcoin has been in a bull market from about April 2019 and known to be in a bullmarket as of about May 2019.. we have not bounced out of such bull market even if there were several pretty decently large corrections along the way, including in late 2019 and then again March 2020..
The discussion is totally subjective really. You can consider it part of the bull market, or a mini-bear within the bull market, or simply that the bear market never ended.
You can call it totally subjective all that you want. That's your opinion.
I can see value in each side of the theory really.
I don't see much value in your supposed perspective of being above and beyond it all and being able to supposedly see both sides.
A 75% drop in a bull market ($14K to $3.5K) doesn't sound bullish to me, but each to their own.
Yes... that's how it works sometimes... In this particular case, we did have a rise from $4,200 to $13,880 from April to June 2019 that started out the being in a bull market assessment, and then a drop down to $3,850 (about 72% down from the top and about 50% down in a day or two) in the liquidation crash of March 2020.... and yep.. we should be able to still assess that we were in a bull market the whole time, whether you want to call it something else or assess it as something else or not.. I believe that your attempt to call it something else is going to lead you to worse results in terms of knowing where we are at, how we got here or where we might be going.. .. but hey do whatever you like.l and yhou are not going to get me to stop from calling your assertions as nonsense if you want to assess that we moved from a bull 2017 to a bear in 2018 to a bull in early 2019 to a bear in late 2019 to a bull at some other arbitrary nonsense place and then to a bear again during the March 2020 liquidation event and some other various other back and forth nonsense since then.. ..
- and I could give less than two shits if you want to proclaim "technically" blah blah blah -
You mean like technically
"in a bull market from about April 2019 and known to be in a bullmarket as of about May 2019" which is what you claimed ? Sounds like a technicality to me
You are the one that used the word "technically" because you seemed to have been wanting to place bitcoin into some kind of traditional market definition of what is a bull market or what is a bear market.. and I already asserted what my assessment was.. whether that fits into some alternative technicality or not, I have already sufficiently explained it.. so no need to attempt to play gotcha.. because I already sufficiently explained what I meant. .whether you agree or not..
it largely seems to me that those kinds of assessments are way too likely to cause people to misunderstand what the fuck is going on, including but not limited to a kind of exponential s-curve adoption that has not really stopped in it's Uppity since April 2019...
I'd argue considering price to still be in the bear market during the covid drop would have been quite helpful, instead of thinking that a bull market had just ended. Then more people would have been confident enough to buy the 200 Week MA, knowing it was simply the second re-test of long-term support, exactly like in 2015 (even if price structure was different), rater than thinking a bear market had started that would take a(another) year to cover. There are people who prefer the complexity of bull to bear bull or whatever, than the simplistically of bear market over, even if that's what happened. To each their own I say.
I don't see how your explanation helps... but I do see people involved in bitcoin price analysis flip flopping around a lot in terms of where they assert that we are at.. which seems confusing to me, and I point out such confusion when I see such confusion taking place... and just to repeat myself, I have been asserting that we have been in a bull market since about May 2019 (that had started in about April 2019).. and I don't see any subsequent BTC price movements that would have knocked us out of having had been in a bull market since then.. so yeah at any time we could attempt to reassess the situation and to change the assessment, but until then, we are still in a bull market and have been in a bull market even though there were various decently sized corrections along the way.. as you have noticed and noted.
also within a four year fractal that is described by PlanB's stock to flow model, which also has not been negated inspite of some of the corrections that have happened since April 2019.
True, but this doesn't confirm the bear market ended in 2019 either, but that the bear market itself didn't negative stock to flow, similar to previous cycles.
You can assess the situation however you like and call it whatever you like in order to come to your assessment of what had happen, where we were at or where we might have been going.. and I can disagree as I have already done.
Though I do admire Tone Vays for waiting from $5K to $14K before buying at $4.5K. Most of the bulls had turned to bears by then, but he had finally turned bullish and bought the dip!
I recall that at some point Vays did flip to bullish at some point... but he was calling for a need to revisit lower $1ks (which would have been the high from 2013)
He largely got taken out of context for this one to be fair, he said the lowest price could
realistically go would be $1K, but otherwise considered $2K/$3K to be sufficient, even $4K. His main argument was that $6K would break and lead to lower lows, much less the $1K target. which he was 100% correct about in fairness. That was "hyperwave theory" that has now been disproved, fortunately.
Yes, I heard about some of that hyperwave theory analysis, even while it was being argued.
but his whole dominance in technicalities did also seem to fail/refuse to acknowledge and account for various bitcoin fundamentals..
This is completely true. While Will Woo was accumulating the lows based on on-chain data (which you could argue is based on fundamentals), he saw the technicals as remaining bearish and being too open-minded to the idea of $1K. Not to mention completely overlook how the liquidation of shorts could cause a rise not just to $5K, but $10K, even $15K.
Yes.. credible folks say all kinds of things and we can each assign our various probabilities to these various assessments.
Fortunately he accepts how wrong he was about buying $4K and selling $5K (lol), instead of selling >$10K (as a trader of course). Then he would have 2x more BTC than currently, given that he did manage to put his hodl stack back in at $4.5K. But the fact he sold a lot of that stack between $6K-8K means he wasn't really getting much of a good deal out of the price swings either.
Yes.. differences of opinions and approaches to portfolio management.
Again he's another good lesson to learn for newbies; don't be like Tone became a common consideration. He's pretty good at timing bull markets and the end of them, after declaring the end at $17.5K due to the rejection of a lower high, as well as 2014, but clearly awful timing end of bear markets. I think a lot of his reputation was initially based on being right about the end of the bull, so people assumed he'd be right about the end of the bear.
It seems like a big so what to me, and yeah surely some people want to play big in their various trades and other people do not... some people want to hold and just ride it down even if they see that a pretty BIG correction might be coming.
I doubt that the lesson would be that "we should try to better time the market," even though for sure people are going to get their own various lessons in regards to how they might consider managing their BTC portfolio in regards to future UPs and DOWNs in the price, which is seeming close to inevitable that there are going to be UPs and DOWNs but I doubt that anyone really has much of a clue about where the top or the bottom might be.. except just to assert it as some kind of probability that might not even be something reliable enough to trade upon.
although for some reason I do not recall seeing as much of his technical analysis after the April to June 2019 3.5x Uptrend.. and so I do recall him admitting that he did not see that coming....
Probably cos lots of people unsubscribed when he took profits around $6K-8K on the way up, in the meantime the $1K hyperwave guy was buying it
For sure, ended up being a way to reck a lot of folks who were trying to time the top in that little run that did not really seem to want to stop, until it did.
so he was kind of proven wrong there, but still persisted with some of his failure/refusal to appreciation BTC fundamentals -and attempts to save face technical analysis...
I'll correct you there, he was completely wrong in 2019. He only managed to regain face in 2020 when he was still waiting for sub $5K while everyone laughed at him, and then it eventually happened.
You seem to be agreeing with me more than I deserve, but still I would describe that saving face situation as luck, if that was how it ended up playing out.
In other words, you seem to have been watching his particulars way more than me.
You could generally argue that he got lucky with that, but whether luck or skill he was right after all.
Of course, there is going to be some combination of luck and skills with any BTC trading or even trying to play a more conservative approach that trades the BIGGER BTC price swings or even some kinds of BTC accumulation focused strategies. Sometimes, earlier executions or set ups are going to put a guy/gal into a situation in which s/he ends up in a position to take advantage of the earlier set up.. so yeah, any kind of BIGGER trade could allow for such set up in order to be able to take advantage of some kind of BTC price action at a later date (which may have been something like Vays's ability to buy back at about $4.5k-ish what he had sold at $17.5k-ish).
Selling at $17.5K and buying at $4.5K is some good accumulation overall I'd say.
Who knows? Sure objectively and retrospectively there is no way to really dispute that selling around 4x higher and buying lower is a good thing if you are able to know with some level of certainty.. but none of us knows with any level of certainty, even if the odds might seem to be high at certain times.. just like in the case of the 3.5x BTC price run-up in April 2019... .. hardly any normie would have been able to know that the BTC price was going to go up 3.5x in 3 months.. so there were quite a few reckt traders and even shorters...
So in the end, there are trade offs, and some people do not want to fuck around in those kinds of ways of managing their portfolio in terms of trying to time price moves up and down.. even if there might be some kinds of relatively prudent ways to attempt to lessen some of the volatility in your BTC holdings through such actions.. but even then there could be some balancing in which guys may well be more than willing to take some losses (or failures to gain more) and to just formulate models in order to mostly hold and accumulate BTC ..
So sure, if you want to model or aspire to a trading approach that depends on trying to predict bottoms and/or tops (or close to bottoms and tops) to manage your BTC stash, then that is your choice... I doubt that very many normies either have such aspirations or even should want to engage in such attempts if they do not want to enter into trading as a kind of profession or serious hobby and for sure in that regard DCA tends to be a better strategy (and maybe supplemented by lump sum investing, buying on dips and just HODLing through the various ups and downs rather than trying to sell BTC in order to attempt to buy more BTC at a lower price).
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