I will repeat just for the sake of clarity - and currently we have 1) stock to flow, 2) four-year fractal and 3) exponential s-curve adoption based on network effects and Metcalfe principles..
Sure I think these are the most valid, but regardless of bull & bear market. That's also why I'm willing to let positions drop in half or further when I'm wrong, based on the fundamentals.
By now, you likely realize that I have many times asserted that I hardly take any extra or different measures in regards to managing my BTC portfolio in regards to my various assignments of probabilities to BTC price directions.. so largely I feel that my approach in regards to my BTC portfolio management is a kind of 50/50 in regards to the BTC price could go up or it could go down, and I hardly give any shits in terms that my orders are largely going to get filled either way.. and if the price stays flat, no orders are getting filled.
Sure, sometimes on the margins I might sell slightly fewer BTC in the midst of what I consider to be noman's land or to spread out my orders further within such zone.. yet I consider even those small measures that I take to be hardly even comprehensible or describable on a conscious level..
and maybe I can give
an example to attempt to illustrate my point... If you remember on about October 20, BinanceUS had a quickie flashcrash from about $67k down to $8,200, and by the time that I discovered that quickie mistake flashcrash, the BTC price had stabilized back at about $62,500. I had buy orders on that exchange (but ONLY down to $42k), so all my buy orders were filled in that ONE exchange flash crash, and since after that point, I did not have any more fiat on that exchange, I decided that I would ONLY reset my BTC buy orders on that particular exchange after selling what I had originally bought through that accidental buying - and in essence I ended up my reseting of my sell orders in $1k increments between $64k and $79k.. which is largely my idea of where noman's land had been located at the time that I set those particular sell orders.....so I was influenced by my assessment of where noman's land was located, but not in very large ways.. just in marginal ways that would have caused me the way in which I would allow that situation to ride in a way that I could attempt to maintain some semblance of emotional (and financial) neutrality in terms of not caring which way the BTC price ended up going... and as we know, the subsequent BTC price action did not end up passing all the way through noman's land without any significant resistance as expected and instead we ONLY got a rise up to $69k and we ended up getting a correction down to $42k (so far) which was the same place that so many of my accidental buy orders had already filled, so largely ONLY my extra sell orders between $64k and $69k (and not the ones between $70k and $79k) had been filled in order to give me some of the money back to work with in order to reset my buy orders on that exchange down to $42k .. and so largely I had been left with working with less money on that exchange (maybe about half).. and also since the BTC price already had gone down to $42k on its own (subsequent to the mistake), the amount of my gain from the accidental October 21 crashening on that one exchange ended up playing out to have been less profitable (maybe partially of my own compromising making) since all my buy orders down to $42k would have still ended up getting filled, but just at a later date... so currently my extra sell orders on that exchange still exist up to $79k - even though my reassessment of noman's land has caused the noman's top to have become a top of $92k rather than $80k.. so in some sense I could reconsider my placement of those BTC sell orders in terms of my reassessment of where noman's land is at, but so far, I have not really felt that my reassessment of a higher noman's level is materially significant enough for me to make any additional changes in where my BTC sell orders are already set on that exchange.
I like to trade from time to time, but otherwise am a patient person. As long as you don't sell Bitcoin at a loss, then you don't lose fiat value as far as I'm concerned.
Not investing or trading with more than you can afford to lose is obviously also a good start as well...
There is quite a bit of discretion involved in terms of where the comfort zones are going to lie in terms of how much value to be allocating in each of the assets and whether you feel more comfortable sleeping in dollars or BTC. From my perspective, higher levels of comfort are likely to come from having deeper levels of assessment of your particulars and then attempting to set buy/sell orders in accordance with those assessments, so sometimes guys devolve into gambling behaviors because they have failed/refused to make adequate assessments of their various particulars so then they may well end up overplaying in various regards and then realizing after the price moves against them that they should have taken a different (perhaps more balanced?) direction with their allocations.
I guess I mean mid-term bear market was what made the covid crash possible, whereas the technicals are very different right now.
Yes.. I quibble with a lot of folks about this kind of terminology in terms of do we call corrections or short term to medium term momentum as bear markets.. and I am not going to do it.. .
Probably best ignored then.
Who put you as an expert in regards to my determinations when to comment or not?
The truth is, it's only after the fact when things become clearer.
If you are prepared for either direction, then why should you give any shits regarding the extent to which things became clearer, unless you are either having regrets about how you had previously balanced your orders or if you might feel that you need to learn from the situation...
For sure, a bigger price move like that might end up causing needs for BIGGER adjustments.. and for sure, it may well challenge a lot of folks in terms of how well that they had prepared themselves financially and psychologically for such extremes.
To me the March crash looked like end of bull market, even if temporarily, after it didn't look like it so much.
For me, it did not look like the end of the bullmarket, and sure if it had persisted and not sprung back after a month or two, then we may have well ended up in a bear market... I have already acknowledged my way of assessing as a kind of lagging indicator, and so I have already struck balances with my finances and psychology in terms of accepting that I might end up buying all the way down and then find out that there is more down.. that is one of the risks of having lagging indicator aspects to my perspective of BTC market matters.
Sure from time to time, we may well be in correction mode that can be described in a variety of ways, but I doubt that it is very helpful at all to be describing the overall dynamics of bitcoin as bouncing between bull and bear and bull and all of that, unless it is attempted to be captured within already existing data that has so far followed four year cycles..
Of course I couldn't agree more, definitions of bull & bear markets are effectively short-term concepts compared to the longer-term concepts of Bitcoin's cycles.
Ok... then why we arguing?
Let's say for example, it's 2018 again, and I keep saying that we are in a bull market through the whole year, and sure my statements become weaker and weaker through the year when it appears that we are not going to be bouncing back, so by the time November 2018 comes, and the BTC price halvens from $6k-ish to $3,500-ish, then at that point, I finally concede that the bull market appears to be over and it appears that the facts now show that we had been in a bear market all along, but I had just not realized that we were in a bear market that whole time until the nail in the coffin comes around mid-November 2018.
Of course, some others had been proclaiming a bear market all along and maybe as early as February 2018 when the BTC price had done a quickie crash down to $6k.. and personally, I still think that the whole matter is a big so what even though it does have decently high potential to have had materially changed the financial and/or psychological situations of individuals in terms of whether they had adequately prepared themselves for either price direction in terms of their own individual particulars... including how much bitcoin they may have already stacked prior to entering that timeframe.
Another example is if you are going to tell me that you were right and I was wrong because I had a delayed acceptance of when the bear market had begun, I am going to tell you to fuck off in part based on no one really knowing with any certainty that the bull market was actually over, until at some later point we could more clearly make that determination..and people are going to determine that at different times and make their preparations based on their determination (are we in a bear or a bull market) at different times (thresholds).,,, and so sometimes the financial and psychological balancing is going to come out differently based on such determinations and personally, I am not going to attempt to second-guess myself and say this was more clear at x point or at x plus 1 month or whatever, unless there might be something there that I feel that would have been more helpful for me to manage my finances/psychology better in the event that I personally conclude that improvements might have been in order... and the kinds of improvements that would have been good for either price direction rather than just seeing that the BTC price went down for the whole of 2018 and then acting as if that were actually knowable when I surely will continue to argue that it was not knowable until either after the fact or based on some particular superior knowledge that non-normies might have had...,.
and surely of course, we may well not continue to follow such 4-year cycles, but personally, I am not going to prematurely assume them to be dead, pronounce them as dead or even use terminology that bounces back and forth between bear and bull markets that ends up downplaying actual BTC price dynamics that I believe to continue to exist.
Me neither, until I see a valid contradiction in Bitcoin's price and it's cycles, which has yet to be seen.
I had stated this a number of times that it seems that bitcoin has been in a bull market from about April 2019 and known to be in a bullmarket as of about May 2019.. we have not bounced out of such bull market even if there were several pretty decently large corrections along the way, including in late 2019 and then again March 2020..
I can see value in each side of the theory really.
I don't see much value in your supposed perspective of being above and beyond it all and being able to supposedly see both sides.
Far from it. I don't consider myself to be above and beyond, that's probably a misinterpretation of what I meant... no offence taken either.
I have my own beliefs - for example - what happened in 2020 with the covid crash. But for me this doesn't nullify the relevance of other theories, as I prefer to remain open-minded.
Well, we might appreciate that it is not ONLY about being open minded, but appreciating that guys may well have differing balances in regards to both their attempt to play upside while balancing risk. There are a certain number of guys who are not willing to take certain risks in order to gamble getting additional profits when those additional profits may or may not play out.. and they are willing to live with a lesser upside and to perhaps be better able to sleep at night.
One kind of strange thing when I look at myself in retrospect, I do realize that in late 2014, I had already determined that I had personally established enough of a stake in BTC to be financially and psychologically comfortable - yet for at least 2 years, I persisted with a kind of ongoing accumulation of BTC and even kinds of concerns that I did not have enough BTC (even though I had already assessed in late 2014 that I did have enough).. so there is some strangeness in a lot of that..especially looking back retrospectively in terms of attempting to assess myself.. and I am not an objective standard, even though there are ways to attempt to assess my situation as an everyman situation, but the better way of attempting to assess my situation is from my own internal perspective.. including whether i have regrets and surely by the time we get into early 2017 I start to go even further down the acceptance layers in terms of feeling that I have enough BTC and surely some of the profits levels and cushions start to be helpful in that when BTC prices are largely moving from $1k to $2k and then $3k later in the year... so then there becomes less and less psychological feelings that I need to get more BTC, when I had already established in late 2014 that I did not need more and then I had the whole time of 2015 and 2016 to really confirm that I did not need anymore and that was a process of largely continuing to accumulate BTC during that time and not really wanting to give any up.. but I think by the time 2017 came, I became more accepting that it was not really going to hurt my situation to give up some BTC here and there... and it seems to me that on a personal level I have been largely been able to maintain that stance since 2017 even though for sure we know that the BTC price has gone up and down since then, it went up 10x to 20x in late 2017 and then it came back down to only being 2x to 4x up and then surely 3-4 years later we are in a seemingly much more solid territory of potential superfluidity for those of us (am I referring to royal?) who might have already assessed their situations to be largely good and acceptable at earlier points in time.
Maybe this is where the assessment that making it through a whole BTC cycle is helpful and making it through a couple of cycles should be superfluously helpful, even though for sure we can understand that it could take some guys/gals a few cycles before they really sort matters out in terms of both their finances and their psychology in regards to how they end up balancing their BTC holdings within that.
Prior to the crash, I considered bear market was over, but in hindsight I felt I'd overlooked a key variable that had yet to confirm a "full blown" bull market I believe, as was lagging.
That sounds like flip-flopping to me.. and sure of course I am not saying that you should not be trying to attempt to learn from your mistakes or even to learn what you believe might be all of the relevant and meaningful variables that might be at play for this particular asset class.
Namely, that the 21 Week MA was crossing below the 50 Week MA, after a bull-cross the year before.
Yes.. a difference between you and me... I hardly give too many shits about those shorter moving averages.. and so recently I have largely been focusing on the 208-week moving average and the 104 week moving averages.. and sure we can get some additional information from some of the shorter timeline ones, but I hardly even want to use those as factors that might influence much if anything that I am going to do or how I am going to attempt to manage my BTC portfolio.
At the time it looked like nothing more than key support, that at the time I was heavily buying, but in reality dropping down to $8.5K wasn't what caused this type of "death cross", it was based on the over-extension of price from the 2019 move, that drew down the shorter-term MA below the 50 Week. Indicating a further correction was likely, or consolidation at minimum, which is exactly what happened.
Still does not matter to me. I doubt that any of those squigglies would be able to anticipate the confluence of events that contributed to a kind of extreme nature of the March 2020 liquidity event... I personally just see it as a need to be prepared for unexpected extremes that are not likely to happen rather than considering it as an event that was foreseeable, even if retrospectively you are able to identify some possible ways that it was foretold or that it had higher chances to occur than you had previously assigned...
Let's say for example, you had assigned less than 4% chance to such occurrence, but you should have assigned 10% to such an occurrence, doesn't it still become a BIG ASS so what, even if the actual phenomena ended uo playing out as 100%?.. Your mistake was between 4% and 10% and the mere fact that it became 100% should not have really changed much of anything in any meaningful way since you should not have had too much of a different approach anyhow between something that was 10% rather than 4% odds.. In other words, I would argue that it is mostly a waste of time to be kicking yourself over something like that and also it does not make a real big difference in your preparations to have a 10% rather than 4% assessment (except on the margins)... and the fact that it actually happened.. should not change matters very much either, except to perhaps show that in the future a lot of those less than 4% events have now become 10% events.. because the actual happening of such march 2020 event has shown some changes in the factors/variables that we need to consider in the future.
I'm by no means trying to claim that dropping to sub $4K was inevitable, but by means of very simple long-term moving averages, a further decline was expected, or at least the most probable outcome.
This is exactly what happened...
That's bullshit. The March 2020 event was an outlier.. and whether it was less than 1%, less than 4%, around 10%, or maybe some other higher number still does not cause it to be some high probability event merely because it ended up happening.
But whatever, you believe whatever you want in regards to how you are going to assess these kinds of potential set-ups in the future.
Yes there was a liquidation of longs, so we can easily blame this, but there was also a reason for this over-leverage - due to a rapid increase in Bitcoin's price during what I believe was still a bear market, based on shorts liquidations. I'm not even suggesting this was a good sell signal either, as the bull signal (the bullish cross later) arrived at $11.6K, significantly higher than the $8.5K sell signal. Even buying the re-test of the 21 Week MA, which is what I did with the last of my capital, was around $10K. Notably again higher by 20% than the delayed(?) sell signal of $8K.
There was more going on in the world than what was shown in those charts.. including macro connections that ended up putting a lot of cascading desires for getting into dollars.. and also the 100x leveraging on BitMex at that particular time had brought a bit further (more extreme) quick and far moves than might have been realizable in advance.. and I am not even going to attempt to characterize some other macro factors because I hardly even consider any of that to be very relevant to any kind of longer term investor in bitcoin including that I don't fuck around with selling and buying in ways that you do.,. so no fucking way am I playing around with my holdings in that way, so you are talking about matters that are of little to no priority to me.
My practice had just sold all the way to the $11k-ish top and then started buying back at about $10k-ish and then bought all the way down to $3,850-ish and then I personally started to wonder if I had enough money to keep buying if the bottom was not in yet.. so sure I can recall being a bit nervous about whether the bottom was in at $3,850.. yet, I cannot recall taking any kinds of large actions to prepare myself for more down.. maybe I adjusted my sales amounts a wee bit higher between $5k and $7k.. just to make sure that I had some extra cash, but really I cannot recall doing anything material and substantial like I ended up having to do in November/December 2018 because I had some cashflow issues at that time, and I believe that I ended up having to sell a few percentages more than anticipated between $4k and $6k just to make sure that I did not run out of cash if the BTC prices ended up going lower than $3k.. adn furthermore I had a lot of expenses coming in at that time based on some decisions that I had made in late 2017/early 2018.
Sometimes it's less about sell signals, and more about "remaining cautious" signals. Kind of like recently with price getting rejection at new ATH, then building resistance at $60K. It didn't suggest to sell, but that better discounts were likely. Fortunately I didn't make this mistake again.
Ok... fair enough that sometimes the signals might be ambiguous in terms of how to read them and how to possibly react or maybe how much to react.
You could argue that the rejection from $9.8K was the first sell signal, but I find with a rising 50 Week MA is a weak argument and only applicable to the short-term of buying the dip again, await discount. The point is there was sufficient data to remain cautious at these $8K levels before price dropped in half, at least if you were buying the dip, which I promptly ignored based on the belief the bear market was over. In hindsight, it's one of the few times I wish I had bothered to listen to the likes of Tone Vays who remained confident that based on the MA movements, price had yet to confirm a bull market, and thus a further drop was most likely.
A lot of that seems irrelevant to me because I am not going to play around with any of that anyhow..
In hindsight it also seems relatively obvious. Price only moved 4x based on liquidation of shorts, then drops 75% based on liquidation of longs. Some pretty simplistic balance being met it seems.
Does not seem obvious to me, even in hindsight.
It's not like he was wrong and got it right eventually, it's that he was patiently waiting to be proven wrong, but instead price failed to hold above the 21 Week MA and thus dropped considerably. Then price failed to move above this MA and dropped even further. He was waiting for confirmation that the bear market was over basically, and with his conservative outlook it wasn't by any means. Call it nonsense if you like, sure.
Yes.. I call it nonsense because I am neither going to attempt to play those or really to materially or meaningfully change any of my strategies based on those kinds of potential moves.. so even if it is not exactly nonsense, it is almost completely unactionable as far as I am concerned.. and you can play those kinds of indicators all that you want and proclaim them to be wonderful until you are blue in the face, but your actions and/or assessments regarding those kinds of indicators are not going to change the way that I manage my BTC or the ways that I suggest others reasonably and prudently attempt to manage their own BTC.
But he had a good reason for calling for a re-test of the 200 Week MA, like in 2015, based on a specific theory related to long-term MA movements and an over-extension of price. - not blind hopium. He was convinced the 4 year cycle would play out, that a similar double bottom pattern would occur 2 years after the top, which is more of less exactly what happened based on Bitcoin's regular cycle.
Still seems like a pretty big SO WHAT to me.
He was ready and willing to acknowledge being wrong if price held the 21 Week MA back in 2019, which is didn't, as well as break back above it, which it didn't. His conviction of scepticism therefore understandably remained stronger. So fair play really, he stuck to the cycle theory and it worked out for him. So I'm more open-minded these days to alternative theories to my mine basically!
Yes.. account for those matters however you like. Does not seem to make much if any difference to either what I did or what I anticipate doing in the future or what I anticipate suggesting for others (if they were to ask?).
A 75% drop in a bull market ($14K to $3.5K) doesn't sound bullish to me, but each to their own.
Yes... that's how it works sometimes... In this particular case, we did have a rise from $4,200 to $13,880 from April to June 2019 that started out the being in a bull market assessment, and then a drop down to $3,850 (about 72% down from the top and about 50% down in a day or two) in the liquidation crash of March 2020.... and yep.. we should be able to still assess that we were in a bull market the whole time, whether you want to call it something else or assess it as something else or not..
Indeed, that is sometimes how price movements go - but imo - for good reason. Over-leveraged shorts get's rekt™, then over-leveraged longs get's rekt™. Like a seesaw until a trend confirmation.
Seems that if you do not fuck around with leverage then you do not get rekt.. so maybe there is a lesson in there that goes more towards not fucking around with trying to figure out how to use leverage when bitcoin has had such a very strong profitable potential for so many normies, even normies who do not hardly know what the fuck that they are doing, so long as they do not get involved in attempting to use leverage. So, from my perspective, there is no "equal opportunity" reckening.. because the fact of the matter remains that bitcoin has brought so many opportunities to so many normies including normies who do not know what the fuck they are doing and normies who hardly have any capital, and one of the most important actions that they can take is to just get the fuck started, and surely some of the normies get lured into modes that they might be able to magnify or quicken their results by playing around with attempting to time this that or another thing, and I have continued to say fuck that including some of your assessments of what to do or what might have been done and blah blah blah.. because sure some of these ideas can be helpful to some folks who are trying to balance some kind of reasonable and prudent trading.. yet from my perspective the vast and overwhelming majority of normies have had opportunities right in front of them to screw up in a lot of ways and still get richie.. so long as they do not use leverage in any kind of substantial and meaningful way.
I believe that your attempt to call it something else is going to lead you to worse results in terms of knowing where we are at, how we got here or where we might be going.. .. but hey do whatever you like..
That's ok, I don't mind you calling it nonsense. But this exact type of theory and thinking is why I was over-exposed by $8K, as opposed to $5.5K. So I'll definitely do me at this point
Obviously I didn't lose any money, has had long-term price conviction and ultimately was accumulating for the long-term, but even so...
Good if you feel that you have found a balance with seemingly complicated assessments..
- and I could give less than two shits if you want to proclaim "technically" blah blah blah -
You mean like technically
"in a bull market from about April 2019 and known to be in a bullmarket as of about May 2019" which is what you claimed ? Sounds like a technicality to me
You are the one that used the word "technically" because you seemed to have been wanting to place bitcoin into some kind of traditional market definition of what is a bull market or what is a bear market.. and I already asserted what my assessment was.. whether that fits into some alternative technicality or not, I have already sufficiently explained it.. so no need to attempt to play gotcha.. because I already sufficiently explained what I meant. .whether you agree or not..
Personally I find that it's always been possible to place Bitcoin into traditional definitions of bull & bear markets, even more so to current price and increased exposure within these markets. Traditional markets are based on speculation, psychology and financial instruments to support that. I don't see Bitcoin being much different. Yes there are halving events, stock to flow, log growth etc, but I don't find it invalidates basic interpretations of bull vs bear, which with MAs and such naturally follow these theories. In fact, after the halving last year, the supply shock coincided
perfectly with traditional concepts of a bull market and a 4 four cycle, it didn't negate it. Shortly after, the long-term downtrend and lower high trajectory of $20K and $14K was broken. Long-term MAs turned completely bullish. Total coincidence, I think not.
Even if you seem to be describing similar kinds of facts that are relevant to me, from time to time, we still end up coming to different conclusions about where we are at. which has implications regarding where we might be going.
it largely seems to me that those kinds of assessments are way too likely to cause people to misunderstand what the fuck is going on, including but not limited to a kind of exponential s-curve adoption that has not really stopped in it's Uppity since April 2019...
I'd argue considering price to still be in the bear market during the covid drop would have been quite helpful, instead of thinking that a bull market had just ended. Then more people would have been confident enough to buy the 200 Week MA, knowing it was simply the second re-test of long-term support, exactly like in 2015 (even if price structure was different), rater than thinking a bear market had started that would take a(another) year to cover. There are people who prefer the complexity of bull to bear bull or whatever, than the simplistically of bear market over, even if that's what happened. To each their own I say.
I don't see how your explanation helps... but I do see people involved in bitcoin price analysis flip flopping around a lot in terms of where they assert that we are at.. which seems confusing to me, and I point out such confusion when I see such confusion taking place... and just to repeat myself, I have been asserting that we have been in a bull market since about May 2019 (that had started in about April 2019).. and I don't see any subsequent BTC price movements that would have knocked us out of having had been in a bull market since then.. so yeah at any time we could attempt to reassess the situation and to change the assessment, but until then, we are still in a bull market and have been in a bull market even though there were various decently sized corrections along the way.. as you have noticed and noted.
I guess this comes down to basing the bull vs bear market within 4 year cycle, that of a double bottom after 2 years, which traditional indicators such as MAs conveniently supported.
Sure, you can call it a double bottom if you like or maybe you want to call it elliot waves? We still seem to be coming to differing assessments regarding to categorize where we had been at various points... which leads us to different conclusions regarding where we might be going.. and seems to me that sometimes the various attempts to treat bitcoin as some kind of normal market with normal definitions will get you and some others into trouble.. and sure your level of getting into trouble is going to vary and your personal ways of accounting for various perceived risks is going to vary too..
Fortunately he accepts how wrong he was about buying $4K and selling $5K (lol), instead of selling >$10K (as a trader of course). Then he would have 2x more BTC than currently, given that he did manage to put his hodl stack back in at $4.5K. But the fact he sold a lot of that stack between $6K-8K means he wasn't really getting much of a good deal out of the price swings either.
Yes.. differences of opinions and approaches to portfolio management.
Yes indeed. A lot of based on "sleeping better at night" it seems. That of being out of the market for a year or two and buying back around slightly lower.
Not everyone is going to sleep better to be in dollars, so don't be proclaiming that there is some objectively preferable way to be when it is not true, even if one selected action might have ended up with greater results on that one way of framing the whole matter and failure/refusal to account for a lot of individual particulars that would not have caused any kind of "better" sleeping to have had potentially been overallocated in dollars during that time.
I doubt that the lesson would be that "we should try to better time the market," even though for sure people are going to get their own various lessons in regards to how they might consider managing their BTC portfolio in regards to future UPs and DOWNs in the price, which is seeming close to inevitable that there are going to be UPs and DOWNs but I doubt that anyone really has much of a clue about where the top or the bottom might be.. except just to assert it as some kind of probability that might not even be something reliable enough to trade upon.
For sure, even Tone Vays acknowledges that hodling and DCA is a great approach, not to be argued with, which is his main approach like many. But like many others, he also trades with a small %. His main argument for why his videos aren't based on hodling and how to dca is that he wouldn't have 100K+ followers if all he did is taught people how to not sell bitcoin and how to buy it regularly.
Yes.. we know that you have a big ass hardon for Tone.. so what? Can we move away from such topic at some point?
No smart trader is ever trying to time to the top of bottom however, that only happens with dumb luck. It's a common misconception about selling tops and buying bottoms, smart traders know to buy & sell trend changes based on confirmation, not catching falling knives or selling into buying pressure. At least, I've seen many get this right, based on waiting for confirmation, rather than dumb luck.
Again.. good for you... It seems that I have made a lot of emphasis in terms of BTC portfolio management to not give too many shits about the relevance and applicability of trading to the vast majority of normies including your truly.. but you want to go on and on and on about it as if it were the best thing since sliced bread.
although for some reason I do not recall seeing as much of his technical analysis after the April to June 2019 3.5x Uptrend.. and so I do recall him admitting that he did not see that coming....
Probably cos lots of people unsubscribed when he took profits around $6K-8K on the way up, in the meantime the $1K hyperwave guy was buying it
For sure, ended up being a way to reck a lot of folks who were trying to time the top in that little run that did not really seem to want to stop, until it did.
Exactly.
so he was kind of proven wrong there, but still persisted with some of his failure/refusal to appreciation BTC fundamentals -and attempts to save face technical analysis...
I'll correct you there, he was completely wrong in 2019. He only managed to regain face in 2020 when he was still waiting for sub $5K while everyone laughed at him, and then it eventually happened.
In other words, you seem to have been watching his particulars way more than me.
Yeh I have. He notices or acknowledges a lot of things many others don't.
And so what?
I can watch any program on TV and find out all kinds of very interesting things that I had not known previously, but still does not make it a good use of my time if I am just learning random events that are neither of interest to me nor actionable by me. Yeah, of course, there can be some entertainment value, but still does not mean that I even want to spend my time in certain kinds of ways that I have already concluded to NOT be very good uses of my time or areas of interest.. even if once in a while I might learn something that is interesting to me, but why spend 10 hours on something and learn one thing potentially interesting when I might spend 1 hour in some other area of interest and end up learning 10 things in that same hour.. which means that I could have had around 100x better bang for the buck, no?
While also overlooking what many others are often aware of. So I find a lot of value in his price-based minority opinions.
After all, if I only listened to others who shared the same opinion as me, I'd have nothing to learn or consider.
Selling at $17.5K and buying at $4.5K is some good accumulation overall I'd say.
Who knows? Sure objectively and retrospectively there is no way to really dispute that selling around 4x higher and buying lower is a good thing if you are able to know with some level of certainty.. but none of us knows with any level of certainty, even if the odds might seem to be high at certain times.. just like in the case of the 3.5x BTC price run-up in April 2019... .. hardly any normie would have been able to know that the BTC price was going to go up 3.5x in 3 months.. so there were quite a few reckt traders and even shorters...
For sure, the markets are designed so that the majority lose and a small minority win, while the exchanges always turn a proftit based on a % of trading revenue. No arguments there.
So in the end, there are trade offs, and some people do not want to fuck around in those kinds of ways of managing their portfolio in terms of trying to time price moves up and down.. even if there might be some kinds of relatively prudent ways to attempt to lessen some of the volatility in your BTC holdings through such actions.. but even then there could be some balancing in which guys may well be more than willing to take some losses (or failures to gain more) and to just formulate models in order to mostly hold and accumulate BTC ..
Indeed, most people shouldn't fuck around unless they spend 1,000 or 10,000 hours studying statistical analysis and find a reliable manner to implement their strategies based on adequate risk reward management. Unless people have studied mathematics in depth, I also wouldn't bother even trying, as a basic grasp won't get you far given the competition you're up against (the rest of the market).
Are you considering that you are in a trading thread here? As if normies in this thread want to get into trading details? or are you considering yourself to be providing more basic overviews that are good for the presumptive normies in this thread? I will concede that members who participate in this thread are higher on the spectrum of knowledgeable about BTC, yet you are likely going to to have some difficulties convincing me that pushing for better understanding of the various nuances (getting into the weeds) of trading is really helpful in this thread.
So sure, if you want to model or aspire to a trading approach that depends on trying to predict bottoms and/or tops (or close to bottoms and tops) to manage your BTC stash, then that is your choice...
Would definitely never recommend this, as it's the no.1 mistakes that all newbies make - they want to sell tops and buy bottoms, or close to. *slaps face*. It's not how it works, at all.
I doubt that very many normies either have such aspirations or even should want to engage in such attempts if they do not want to enter into trading as a kind of profession or serious hobby and for sure in that regard DCA tends to be a better strategy (and maybe supplemented by lump sum investing, buying on dips and just HODLing through the various ups and downs rather than trying to sell BTC in order to attempt to buy more BTC at a lower price).
For sure, DCA, as well as dip buying, even lump sums, then hodling is a much better strategy for most to stick to. There's a good reason why I hodl most of my stash, as I only want to risk 5-15% at a time with trading, as well as only when I actually want to trade. Fortunately, I think most sensible investors these days have no interest in trying to trade, due to the amount of morbid stories of newbies leverage trading and getting completely REKT™. It's probably a good thing that so many noobs get liquidated to be honest, as it encourages newer investors to not risk doing this. They benefit well from learning from this.
In summary, too many stories of
"made money then gambled it all in a 10x long". Which to a normal person sounds like; so you were making money but then got greedy and wanted to make even more money then lost if all? Did you not consider the risk of what you were doing? What was wrong with the original investment that was doing well? etc etc. There's a good reason most people shouldn't trade...
Of course, there does seem to be a bit of a tendency for even relatively prudent folks to start to gamble when they are presented with options or tools that might not have traditionally been available to them with so much ease as can be found once starting to get involved in bitcoin. So, if there are some normies who might consider various ways to get involved in bitcoin and storing it, and one or more of their ways of "getting involved" in bitcoin may well offer them options to trade or even to look into other supposedly "related matters," and yeah those kinds of offerings could well end up leading to unnecessary experimentations.
On that note; not your keys, not your Bitcoin either.
There have likely been quite a few of us who historically ended up keeping way more coins in certain locations that were not really good risk management locations. So, sometimes it can take a while to learn about various ways to securely store coins, even for some of us who might be striving to spend more time studying the space. Many of us probably have stories of not really realizing that some of our previous storage locations for what we thought to be kinds of "dust," ended up being way more value than we would have considered prudent to maintain in some of those locations..
You can imagine that someone might think that it is acceptable to keep less than $10k in various less secure locations, but if the value starts getting above $10k they might start to worry that they are keeping too much value in x, y or z location.. so even someone who bought something like $5k coins in 2015 might have lost track of the value of those 20 BTC. and we can see at various points in time that $5k (20BTC) ended up being $400k in December 2017 and then nearly $1.4 million at various points this year.. and variations of that kind of value could have ended up getting away from some normies who had not been giving too much thought to how much their BTC holdings might have appreciated at various points in time.. and so maybe their perceptions of value get really messed up too when it finally sinks in regarding the various place that they might have been holding their BTC and perhaps even if they have to consider some other kinds of solutions (that might involve some need to learn some complicated things about self-custody and some folks do not feel competent enough to learn some of the seemingly more complicated things as compared with keeping their value with a "bank" and someone to help them if they might have some issues in the future...including death.. so some people reasonably can be hesitant in terms of NOT knowing what to do or how to balance these kinds of value matters.
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