Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[savetherainforest]

Well sh!t.... the Binance KYC kicked in. Time to go to Kazakstan to get a sim card to transfer funds to my other account.... or Mongolia??

For now... I traded everything into BTC/LTC/DGB ... and SHIB'a cuz why not??... F^ck Ethereum, since they are on the same ecosystem.      

Time to use all them DEX-es now.

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[Gachapin]

gm hodlers

BTC is now the only POW coin in the top 10.

....apart from that meth-mother, who gave birth to nearly all scam tokens. (But it will leave POW and get even more scammy, centralized and controllable, soon)

I could well be ignorant and wrong. But I have a philosophical problem with POS:

Once someone has a big stake in a POS network, he will automatically have the same stake ('mining share') in any fork to come.
So it's hard to split away from his influence by forking.  The staker in power will always stay in power. No "democratic" choice.

With POW, a miner does not get to keep the same mining share in both forks after a split. He has to decide which fork to mine, to what extend.
He is restricted by limited energy (thermodynamically sound as Saylor would say).

So in that way POW produces competition ..in the network itself (between forks), and also between different POW coins.

POW connects physical scarcity (energy) with digital scarcity, and transforms one value into the other. For me that's the main selling point of it.

And I can clearly see which POW coin beats all the others ....BTC


 

[shahzadafzal]

Bitcoins spent well.
 

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rk9rhe/i_sold_9_bitcoin_over_the_past_3_months/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Daily Driver: PAID IN FULL?

I don’t know does it even mean?

Well yeah.. does not seem like a bad use of coins, overall... and sure there are a lot of discretionary aspects in terms of figuring out at what point to shave off around 26% of your coins (9/35).... in order to satisfy various fiat obligations and maybe even to diversify some of your value into profits (and he is not even seeming to completely be referring to consumption or luxury goods) is that you LFC?   hahahahaha  

Another aspect is merely being in profits gives quite a few options.. because let's just say cryptorich13 was not so fortunate to get all of his coins or even at the average (median) of the difference between $1,200 and $4k... and so even if we might suggest some kind of average price per BTC at about $3k per BTC, the options come into play with 18.3x in profits ($55k/$3k).  

Anyhow, 35 BTC acquired in 2017 is not even a bad time horizon in terms of letting at least a whole cycle of BTC price performance play out, and sure, he might never be able to get those 9 BTC back or anything close to that if he just stays in a kind of DCA or buying on dips mode.. perhaps?  perhaps?  Anyhow, we can estimate that he had spent around $105k ($3k x 35 BTC) to purchase those 35 BTC, and he had cashed out around $495k. ($55k x 9 BTC).. and even at today's prices, he still has around $1.2 million in value ($46k x 26 BTC).  

Yes, some people will get worked up about the guy's choice to shave off 9 BTC all at once, maybe even yours truly, because I am a bit concerned about shaving off 25% all at once, but I would not have been so much concerned about shaving off 5% here and 5% there and maybe even getting to the same result of shaving off 9 BTC at some point (25%).

As far as getting back the coins.. maybe he will be able to and maybe he won't.  I doubt that it hurts to monitor his ongoing portfolio value and maybe just to keep it in more of a preservation and accumulation mode in the coming years, or maybe just a minimum shaving of value mode.. again, with around 18.3x of profits (currently only 15.3x in profits), the guy continues to have varying degrees of profitable options in terms of BTC portfolio management.... and the main questions likely revolve around how much profits, loss of opportunity costs or principle preservation...

So maybe for me, instead of engaging in a kind of lump sum behavior of shaving off 25% all at once, more likely I would have considered a kind of sensible capital preservation liquidation methodology under some kind of formula that I might accept.. and sure, maybe we could have ended up at similar kinds of shavings.. though ballparkedly I am thinking that I probably would not have shaved more than 12%.. which would have been around half of the amount that the guy did.. and that would have been to use the spot price and then to say that I am able to shave off 4% per year.. which then gets me to 12% if i am frontloading the amount based on concerns about the BTC price over the next 3 years to be returning to that particular price...

Another thing is my last couple of years (developed) desire to use the 208-week moving average for the calculation of BTC portfolio value rather than spot price, and when I use the 208-week moving average as my calculating amount, I authorize myself up to 12% per year based on that 208-week MA price (so long as the spot price is at least quite a bit above that 12% higher than the 208-week moving average), even though I would still have some reservations in shaving off 3 years worth of my allocated amount, but I still believe that would get me to similar results in terms of what is going on now in the BTC price as compared with the 208-week moving average... so the current 208-week moving average is about $18.3k, so if I multiply that price by my hypothetical 35 BTC, then that gives me a portfolio value of $640,500, so I had already speculated that I would have been able to shave off 12% per year (which would be around $77k), so then the question would be whether to front load that shaving off (and limit myself from future shavings) or not and to be able to withdraw up to $231k ($77k x 3 years), and at the price of $55k that would have allowed me to cash out 4.2 BTC if I felt that there were a need to front load my cashing out. By the way, $55k is a spot price that is more than 3x higher than the 208-week moving average, so I should not be worried about my 12% shavings based on the spot price being way the hell higher than my measuring stick of the 208-week MA.

Back to the question of authorizing myself to cash out 3 years worth of BTC liquidation, there would have to be some level of confidence in my own short to medium views of the BTC price that the BTC may well not return to $55k for 3 years, which surely seems like a stretch to imagine that kind of scenario (even if such a scenario would be possible) - especially since we had already had a 56% price correction down to $28.6k in May/June/July.  And, we just recently had a December 3 - 39% correction down to $41,967.. and of course, with a posturing (presumably more than a couple of weeks after cryptorich13 having had sold) cryptorich13 had actually sold at $55k before our December 3 dip down to $41,967... so sometimes there can be some seeming gloating when guys assert that they sold at a price that is higher than our current seemingly stagnant price.  

For me the amount of BTC that I would authorize myself to sell would have to have some kind of connection to how strongly I believe that I might get stuck out of being able to sell BTC at any such chosen sell price, so in this case that would be $55k, and so in that regard, if there seems to be expectations that such non-return of BTC to the spot price of $55k could last for 1 or 2 years, then I would authorize my sale based on that period of time, so accordingly, I would not have been able to sell up to 4.2BTC because that would have been a calculation for 3 years, and I cannot bring myself to conclude that we are not returning to $55k or higher in the next 3 years. In other words, based on my view of the probably likely longest period of a correction that does not return to $55k, I would have ONLY been able to authorized myself a maximum of 1-2 years of selling, and that would have been to be able to sell the value of between $77k and $154k (which would have been 1.4 BTC to 2.8 BTC).. so that is where I stand in terms of my considerations of shaving authorizations based on recent BTC price actions.  

Even after having asserted that I would have not shaven off so much BTC as cryptorich13 had done, and also asserted that I am not against the idea of shaving even decent amounts of BTC from time to time, I can still accept that these choices about how much to shave and when are discretionary matters and still a more aggressive strategy like cryptorich13 could end out playing out better than what I would consider to be my own more conservative BTC portfolio management approach.

wow you did all the math bravo...!!! it should be posted to r/theydidthemath/

well yes many of us agree he could have saved fairly good amount of BTC here if he had played smartly for example like someone pointed out in below tweet about this 2-4 bad investments.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[aesma]

Yeah I was going to say the same thing, he has high income, he could easily continue paying off debt from the income, and finance the shiny car too.

[Gachapin]

gm hodlers

Just Perfect…

Well on a side note I don’t own any LTC… but I do think LTC should be in list of 2021, better than many other shits, not sure what exactly happened to it.

Not owning LTC is quite simply a good thing, because it's now ranked 18th place and continues to decline. LTCBTC is a total shitshow.
This is why it's not shown there in 2021, the list is only Top 10 from each year, last year was 5th. It's now just another "gone coin".
Clever list that's for sure, so many fallen shitcoins there, the memories lol. Now back to Bitcoin...

Speaking of which. What the fuck is the green leaf logo that has disappeared?
Green leaf Coin?
Each coin represents when someone wipes their ass with a green leaf instead of toilet paper?
Only 8 billion issued?

Wasn't that green leaf the Bitfinex token? Like people were given that instead of their coins.    ....So Finex wouldn't go bust ?  

Ah.. the good old times of exchange "hacks"

Edit
Oh.. Peercoin... thanks @dragonvslinux

Edit 2
..and @HeRetiK

[HeRetiK]

gm hodlers

Just Perfect…

Well on a side note I don’t own any LTC… but I do think LTC should be in list of 2021, better than many other shits, not sure what exactly happened to it.

Not owning LTC is quite simply a good thing, because it's now ranked 18th place and continues to decline. LTCBTC is a total shitshow.
This is why it's not shown there in 2021, the list is only Top 10 from each year, last year was 5th. It's now just another "gone coin".
Clever list that's for sure, so many fallen shitcoins there, the memories lol. Now back to Bitcoin...

Speaking of which. What the fuck is the green leaf logo that has disappeared?
Green leaf Coin?
Each coin represents when someone wipes their ass with a green leaf instead of toilet paper?
Only 8 billion issued?

Wasn't that green leaf the Bitfinex token? Like people were given that instead of their coins.    ....So Finex wouldn't go bust ?

Ah.. the good old times of exchange "hacks"

That's Peercoin, IIRC the first alt to use PoS. Pretty much dropped off the face of the earth soon afterwards though.

[BitcoinBunny]

Well I don't earn $140,000 as most IT jobs pay pretty poorly all across Europe from what I can gather, certainly compared to salaries in that industry in the US.

If I did I'd only be DCA-ing more into BTC than I'm doing already rather than paying any cheap fiat loans off.

The fact he had credit card debt at that salary is astonishing I think regardless of whether affording cheap loan is better than selling BTC.
Maybe he didn't earn as much before but he was looking at working less hours.

Crazy situation to be in regardless.

15-25% APR per annum on buying crap you probably don't need?

Fuck that.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[naim027]

Related?  

[AlcoHoDL]

Yeah I was going to say the same thing, he has high income, he could easily continue paying off debt from the income, and finance the shiny car too.

Maybe it was a psychological thing for him. He wanted to really be debt-free. I can understand that, and I'm like that too. I never owed anyone anything. Always pay in full, no installments, even if they are interest-free. If I cannot pay in full, I don't buy it. The only exception I could accept would be a home loan/mortgage.

[hisslyness]

Yeah I was going to say the same thing, he has high income, he could easily continue paying off debt from the income, and finance the shiny car too.

Maybe it was a psychological thing for him. He wanted to really be debt-free. I can understand that, and I'm like that too. I never owed anyone anything. Always pay in full, no installments, even if they are interest-free. If I cannot pay in full, I don't buy it. The only exception I could accept would be a home loan/mortgage.

AlcoHoDL, 100% agree!.. i think it is the psychological feeling of not having to worry about the next pay-cycle that needs to pay for this or that. Not having to budget and check your balance each time you shop or head out for the evening is a wonderful feeling.

I understand why he bought most of the stuff out right, Hell, I've done the same. Not having to worry about about weekly repayments for this or or that.

Besides, what most people are not seeing in his post, which i believe is the most important point, not being forced to have to work. He is now choosing to go to work, which until you experience it, you won't know what i mean.

[Torque]

*Banks who won't give you a loan because they don't recognize BTC as collateral have entered the chat*

_{(yes, this actually happened to me)}

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[suchmoon]

Yeah I was going to say the same thing, he has high income, he could easily continue paying off debt from the income, and finance the shiny car too.

I stopped reading at Hellcat. Obviously not a real bitcoiner. Hellcat is like NFT of cars.

[El duderino_]

*Banks who won't give you a loan because they don't recognize BTC as collateral have entered the chat*

_{(yes, this actually happened to me)}

I could gotten a loan t a certain bank…. Providing I HODL x more amount in BTC… but I didn’t wanna show to much of my private cold storage holding

They keeping most anyway without knowing lol…. Cold storage is in there vault ….

That’s just a small thing a bank can help with, I still prefer keeping it over there for safety etc

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Richy_T]

Peercoin! Now ranked #820 Down roughly 99.8% against BTC since 2013  

I think I have some if anyone wants some. Spent a few days mining on one of those multipool sites.

[Richy_T]

Bitcoins spent well.
 

https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/rk9rhe/i_sold_9_bitcoin_over_the_past_3_months/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

Daily Driver: PAID IN FULL?

I don’t know does it even mean?

Wait, I missed that bit...

400k @2.75%?

So they're paying interest?

So they sold off a bunch of bitcoin and are still in debt? WTF indeed.