Yeah, this spring/summer dump to $29k for example. Let alone covid flash crash! Like real black swan events that would
mindrust the shit out of you and your stash!
I sold 25% of my stash between $65,000 down to $53,800.
You might wonder why I typed it that way round, it’s because I started selling at $60,000 to $65,000 & clearly expected to see $100,000 plus this year. It hasn’t & doesn’t look like it will happen now. Any way, when we started dumping from there I panicked a bit & sold more, the last batch as low as $53,800 on the day they announced a new bull shit covid variant.
I was kicking myself for panicking a bit. It’s not looking too dumb now
I took significant, life changing (to an extent) fiat out & now I don’t regret it at all. If we go much, much lower I will hoover up cheap coins. If we don’t then whatever, I am set for life now. Totally chilled until the next halvening & beyond.
Can't say that I am not disappointed a wee bit..
But for sure you know you better than we do.. and each of us should do what we believe to be the best for our particular circumstances and so that we can sleep well at night too...
If it wasn’t cause of PlanB hopium a lot of people where saying we where in a Bearmarket mid this year at 30 K
NO one saw a pump for this year and PlanB was written off
Same thing happening now, price is low and everyone says Bear to quick imho
This time PlanB isn’t on point anymore, but I expected him to fall of the rails sooner or later with the S2F chart… it still is an interesting model, but nothing follows an exact model….
Please don’t say bear to fast you guys frighten the n00bs, and the OG’s
Weird enough
Uughh Uughh …. If it isn’t for the cash, don’t mind to much, funds are safu.
BTC saving is ultimate KEY.
There is something wrong with your little rendition, dude...
For sure you can proclaim that PlanB was wrong about November and even likely December in his bottom models.. but those models were a bit stupid in the first place.
As far as the stock to flow and the following of 4 year cycles, I doubt that you can proclaim those to be wrong until maybe 3rd quarter of 2022.. or some outrageous deviation from the mean price predicted therein that would last for a long time.
One thing about models is that they are not off.
They can be one or two standard deviations off of the mean and still end up being correct.. so surely I doubt that we are really very far off of the mean.. perhaps 1 sgtandard deviation at most... maybe we are getting a bit further off, but seems way too premature to assess that model as even being close to dead.
Furthermore, it seems to me that the model could still be correct even if the curve or the mean has to be shifted down..
So regarding PlanB's assertion that the average price for BTC should be $100k for the whole period after the halvening (which was in May 2020).. but the average price ends up being somewhere between $60k and $80k, so I doubt that the model needs to be thrown out, but instead the average needs to be shifted down to reflect the actual facts and perhaps some other adjustments need to be made to the model..
In other words, I am just saying that even if the model is not perfect, it is likely either not completely broken or even salvageable in some kind of meaningful and significant way.
And, personally, I hardly give any shits about whether the model is correct or not, but I do believe it remains some kind of best model still available rather than some of the various random "out of my ass" spinnenings that we see popping out of various places that seem to not even be in touch with hardly any kind of meaningful reality, such as facts and logic.
Me, I wasn't that lucky unfortunately so I'll just stay here for a while. I have raised all my sell orders from ~50k to 80k a while ago (some WOers clairvoyant granny's prediction remember?
).
I hope that you are not referring to yours truly.. because that does kind of resemble my noman's land numbers... which surely were probably moving the 50/50 to 60/40 which is a high level of certainty.. but still nothing close to any kind of certainty.
(or did i give higher numbers .. I can hardly imagine giving higher numbers than 60/40 unless it was just a very narrow question like about the bottom being in.. but not to $80k, no?.... when I talk about tops I might sometimes suggest that resistance is lessened..but beyond 60/40.. that would be pretty damned rare for me. I can dig out some of my earlier in the year numbers which likely started around July/August when we got out of the $30ks and we passed above $46k) which I would assert NOT to have been in any kind of really high levels.. sometimes I recall making higher proclamations that the bottom was in.. but not necessarily about the top.. except to say that noman's land existed, ands the underlying rationale of noman's land is that there is a lot of UPpity momentum. and less likely to have BIG corrections during that time, but still does not mean that corrections have disappeared completely from the radar.. so moving from 50/50 to something like 60/40 would be a pretty BIG-ASS move.. even though it is way far from guaranteed.. 40% is not a nothing)...
.hahahahahahaha .... makes me want to say something like this...... wait for it::::
"sorry for all the losses that I might have caused... .
NOT
..........
I did not cause nuttin."
Poll
