Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Richy_T]

While I agree with the comprehensive conclusion of TA ("chaotic mess"), shouldn't this news be bullish (if it's for real)?

Germany's largest savings bank planning to allow customers to buy/sell and HODL #Bitcoin

All the news right now should be bullish but  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[serveria.com]

{various predictions]

BTW as for cycle predictions hah with holy covid there is no cycle.

It seems that several times we have seen these kinds of errors that seem so inclined to suggest that cycles are gone.. when they are not even gone, yet... in other words, ongoing premature assertions regarding the death of the cycle..

I'll believe it when either I see it or I see actual evidence beyond bald assertions..

This is so true. Good point. Let's wait and see. It ain't over until it's over. 

[Richy_T]

My brother from a different mother.

The threaded view is too chaotic for my tastes.  A good old flat forum style with the sensible use of quotes like this one, is my fav.

Yes. Threaded forums also suffer from all topics eventually sliding from prominence meaning old threads get retrod again and again. A good usenet thread could last for years.

I actually have some thoughts on a usenet 2.0 with cryptography and better decentralization. I should really start putting pen to paper on it.

[philipma1957]

{various predictions]

BTW as for cycle predictions hah with holy covid there is no cycle.

It seems that several times we have seen these kinds of errors that seem so inclined to suggest that cycles are gone.. when they are not even gone, yet... in other words, ongoing premature assertions regarding the death of the cycle..

I'll believe it when either I see it or I see actual evidence beyond bald assertions..

     Holy covid-19 has radically altered the entire worlds economy it has altered this cycle
  so much that in effect there is no true predictablitly.

BTW most efforts to predict are and will be futile.

It not that no cycle is a fact it is that the cycle is twisted and stretched by factors larger and bigger then a standard model of cycles.

or not. As you say.

[Richy_T]

It's odd but sensible.  One can post signs, but that is messy and liable to loss and damage while painting the top of a fence post purple is cheap and will last years if not decades.  It's only drawback is you better know what it means.

Is there a way you are supposed to paint it so people know which side of the line they're on?

[Hueristic]

The world is full of Kings and Queens
Who blind your eyes and steal your dreams

#Hold

[JayJuanGee]

Yeah, this spring/summer dump to $29k for example. Let alone covid flash crash! Like real black swan events that would mindrust the shit out of you and your stash!  

I sold 25% of my stash between $65,000 down to $53,800.
You might wonder why I typed it that way round, it’s because I started selling at $60,000 to $65,000 & clearly expected to see $100,000 plus this year. It hasn’t & doesn’t look like it will happen now. Any way, when we started dumping from there I panicked a bit & sold more, the last batch as low as $53,800 on the day they announced a new bull shit covid variant.

I was kicking myself for panicking a bit. It’s not looking too dumb now  

I took significant, life changing (to an extent) fiat out & now I don’t regret it at all. If we go much, much lower I will hoover up cheap coins. If we don’t then whatever, I am set for life now. Totally chilled until the next halvening & beyond.

Can't say that I am not disappointed a wee bit..

But for sure you know you better than we do.. and each of us should do what we believe to be the best for our particular circumstances and so that we can sleep well at night too...

If it wasn’t cause of PlanB hopium a lot of people where saying we where in a Bearmarket mid this year at 30 K

NO one saw a pump for this year and PlanB was written off

Same thing happening now, price is low and everyone says Bear to quick imho
This time PlanB isn’t on point anymore, but I expected him to fall of the rails sooner or later with the S2F chart… it still is an interesting model, but nothing follows an exact model….

Please don’t say bear to fast you guys frighten the n00bs, and the OG’s

Weird enough




Uughh Uughh …. If it isn’t for the cash, don’t mind to much, funds are safu.
BTC saving is ultimate KEY.

There is something wrong with your little rendition, dude...

For sure you can proclaim that PlanB was wrong about November and even likely December in his bottom models.. but those models were a bit stupid in the first place.

As far as the stock to flow and the following of 4 year cycles, I doubt that you can proclaim those to be wrong until maybe 3rd quarter of 2022.. or some outrageous deviation from the mean price predicted therein that would last for a long time.

One thing about models is that they are not off.

They can be one or two standard deviations off of the mean and still end up being correct.. so surely I doubt that we are really very far off of the mean.. perhaps 1 sgtandard deviation at most... maybe we are getting a bit further off, but seems way too premature to assess that model as even being close to dead.


Furthermore, it seems to me that the model could still be correct even if the curve or the mean has to be shifted down..


So regarding PlanB's assertion that the average price for BTC should be $100k for the whole period after the halvening (which was in May 2020).. but the average price ends up being somewhere between $60k and $80k, so I doubt that the model needs to be thrown out, but instead the average needs to be shifted down to reflect the actual facts and perhaps some other adjustments need to be made to the model..

In other words, I am just saying that even if the model is not perfect, it is likely either not completely broken or even salvageable in some kind of meaningful and significant way.  

And, personally, I hardly give any shits about whether the model is correct or not, but I do believe it remains some kind of best model still available rather than some of the various random "out of my ass" spinnenings that we see popping out of various places that seem to not even be in touch with hardly any kind of meaningful reality, such as facts and logic.

Me, I wasn't that lucky unfortunately so I'll just stay here for a while. I have raised all my sell orders from ~50k to 80k a while ago (some WOers clairvoyant granny's prediction remember?  ).

I hope that you are not referring to yours truly.. because that does kind of resemble my noman's land numbers... which surely were probably moving the 50/50 to 60/40 which is a high level of certainty.. but still nothing close to any kind of certainty.

(or did i give higher numbers .. I can hardly imagine giving higher numbers than 60/40 unless it was just a very narrow question like about the bottom being in.. but not to $80k, no?.... when I talk about tops I might sometimes suggest that resistance is lessened..but beyond 60/40.. that would be pretty damned rare for me. I can dig out some of my earlier in the year numbers which likely started around July/August when we got out of the $30ks and we passed above $46k) which I would assert NOT to have been in any kind of really high levels.. sometimes I recall making higher proclamations that the bottom was in.. but not necessarily about the top.. except to say that noman's land existed, ands the underlying rationale of noman's land is that there is a lot of UPpity momentum. and less likely to have BIG corrections during that time, but still does not mean that corrections have disappeared completely from the radar.. so moving from 50/50 to something like 60/40 would be a pretty BIG-ASS move.. even though it is way far from guaranteed.. 40% is not a nothing)...

.hahahahahahaha .... makes me want to say something like this...... wait for it::::


"sorry for all the losses that I might have caused... .


















NOT

..........


I did not cause nuttin."

[Richy_T]

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.

Too many people looking at inflation and thinking "I'd better keep hold of my filthy fiat as I'm not going to be able to buy as much with it" rather than "I'd better buy something worth holding with my filthy fiat before the government makes it worthless", I suspect.

[Toxic2040]

Nothings changed. It's only going to get better long term...this is known. Steady as she goes.

#dyor

short fib
4h


zooming out a little with a medium fib extension...looks ok   especially considering where the year started in the mid to upper $20k's
D

#stronghands

[jojo69]

Who's buying this fucking shit? "The Bored Ape Yacht Club"
What the fuck is this bollocks, seriously?

I wouldn't give them 3 cents.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-59638565

Utter pish.

[philipma1957]

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.

Too many people looking at inflation and thinking "I'd better keep hold of my filthy fiat as I'm not going to be able to buy as much with it" rather than "I'd better buy something worth holding with my filthy fiat before the government makes it worthless", I suspect.

yep which is why you need to develop a fiat to btc ratio that makes sense for you.

I am older so we are set up as below

The wife is 100% fiat.

I am 80% BTC .

And each year I am gaining on the wife with my btc. net value as compared to her fiat + house net value.

[xhomerx10]

and let the purple posts every 100 ft serve as the traditional Texas warning to officially "Fuck around and find out"

I find that you are doing purple fence posts to be so delightfully appropriate.  Your color... and one the locals most likely know to respect.  I guess the tradition goes back.

My moms side of the family were country folk.  I used to visit my grandfather in rural NC and we would take a couple cane poles for fishing.  We fished in a creek on his property, but that was on the edge of his neighbors property.  My grandfather, a man of few words pointed out a post with a purple top and asked me if I knew what it meant.  Nope, I said.  And he told me, it's a friendly way to warn people "if you go on that land they'll shoot ya" (the way my grandfather said it was more like "shoochee" lol).

Is this a US thing or a local Texas thing, I have never heard of it before.

 Not in my area.  We use red markings with a minimum of 10cm diameter to denote private property boundaries.
We use purple to attract the Emerald Ash Borer beetle into sticky traps.  They are a huge problem here having already killed millions of Ash trees.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Toxic2040]

filthy fiat user..your offers are insulting..cheeseburgers are for tuesdays

[Biodom]

Well, it does not look like anything good is happening.
Contrast this with early in the year when almost everybody were salivating at the prospect of selling a bunch at 100K-300K...since EVERYBODY knew that that's were we would be in December.

Too many people looking at inflation and thinking "I'd better keep hold of my filthy fiat as I'm not going to be able to buy as much with it" rather than "I'd better buy something worth holding with my filthy fiat before the government makes it worthless", I suspect.

yep which is why you need to develop a fiat to btc ratio that makes sense for you.

I am older so we are set up as below

The wife is 100% fiat.

I am 80% BTC .

And each year I am gaining on the wife with my btc. net value as compared to her fiat + house net value.

my wife is 100% stocks, and I am mostly bitcoin plus a 60/40 high growth stocks/cash (short term bonds) in "regular" portfolio.
That said, her portfolio slightly outperformed btc since four years ago exactly.
You can check yourself: QQQ is up 2.488X (392.26/157.65) since Dec 13 2017, while bitcoin is 2.346X (46522/19835).
Four years is a pretty long time, presumably a whole cycle, so spare me bias complains and talk about picking up bottoms as almost nobody can do that.
Hopefully, it would be much better going forward and if not, I might still hodl as I don't understand most stocks valuation, currently.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

Who's buying this fucking shit? "The Bored Ape Yacht Club"

Initially those speculating on the fastest growing asset class of 2021, that of digital art & collectables. Mainly from these physical markets, so not crytpo natives it seems. Turns out they weren't wrong either, as price rose from around 0.1 ETH to 50 ETH within 3 months. Even stranger is that this collection has maintained it's value for the past 4 months as many high rollers continue to buy into this society for status and access rights, while others naturally cash out huge profits. Turns out the NFT bubble in March was only the beginning, as others correctly speculated as such. It's absolutely insane really, never seen anything like it.

What the fuck is this bollocks, seriously?

Yes, people are quite serious about this collection. In summary it's an NFT, gives artwork rights to holders, access to exclusive physical events, some online access, as well as generally Metaverse compatible.

I wouldn't give them 3 cents.

I wouldn't either, also worth noting that you wouldn't be able to directly as the floor price is currently around $200K. There are index funds that poorly track the price and currently severely undervalued (by around 50%+) so I wouldn't trust their liquidity pools either. More importantly, they've already had their 500x growth against Ethereum, so unless you are corporate marketing like Adidas, film/music industry, etc, not worth it.

The developers eventually signed a deal with U2 and Madonna's manager to use the collection in music and artwork, though not sure how the copyright is going to work for that, as very experimental stuff. The collection otherwise almost "flipped" CryptoPunks as the most valuable collection  back in August, and look set to do so in the near future, given it's a society with actual use cases, as opposed to an OG collection with none.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-59638565

Goes to show how costly human error can be I guess, an important lesson in life. Exhausted traders made mistakes. Bought for 1 ETH, worth at least 53 floor price, sold for 0.75 lol.

I guess you would have preferred a reply with "yeh totes dumb stuff rite", but instead I thought I'd try reply with some factual information since you asked  

[JayJuanGee]

Merited a long post…. For effort and writing work….

Everyone earns something while working 

Sometimes a bit more work than initially intended...

It's not like a bot is coming up with all of the ideas contained therein.

no, you are at least two bots that switch back and forth as one or the other gets updated software and tested off line.

Yeah.. but... we have been on a pretty BIG back and forth roll recently, no? 

And would you not conclude that we are kind of antagonistic to one another in a few substantive kinds of ways in respect to the value of trading and the extent to which it is important to talk about trading strategies, no?

You cannot believe that we just invent our level of antagonism, merely for attention or whatever other benefits that we might get out engaging in the back and forths, no?

Another thing is that of course if one of us is typing, the other cannot respond until the other is done, no?

@jjg...still ways to go before you learn how 'normal' humans typically talk to each other.

For sure there is a lot of strangeness in your above chosen words, and need I get into any details about your own strangeness - beyond just pointing it out?

To whatever you say, i would respond...let's wait and see.

You already likely realize that you have a tendency to throw out a bunch of somewhat arbitrary frameworks, and why do we need to wait and see to identify how detached from reality they seem to be.  Why would it matter if some kind of bullshit that you throw out there ends up playing out exactly like you described that it would?  From what I can see about your approach, the mere playing out of your proposed scenario would not cause the current rationale for the framework or the factual foundations to become more solid, even though of course, you could attempt to credit ur lil selfie as some kind of a sorcerer that has graduated beyond wannabe status.

I understand that you are somewhat limited in what you can 'predict' and therefore, react unfavorably when someone does that "unusual' thing.

I doubt that I am limited in what I "can" predict.  I just choose not to make bold ass predictions that seem to be too damned specific and seem to aspire towards sorcery status.  On the other hand, I do have some tendencies to attempt to outline probability frameworks from time to time and also to challenge some folks, such as uie pooie.. when you seem to be throwing out various kinds of nonsense that even you likely do not believe to be true, but you just want to put some kind of seemingly leadership framework out there... it would be funny if it weren't sometimes a bit too misleading and sometimes failing and refusing to account for more convincing frameworks or even sometimes you end up misquoting facts in order to try to spin your framework as being more likely than it deserves.

It's a weakness..you should "fight" it.

It's great that you have deemed yourself as some kind of expert in terms of recognizing various weaknesses that I have.

However, I see no value in various stepwise buy, sell scenarios, which are boring as heck, so it is that.

My approach is too boring for you?  That's strange.  You seem to agree with aspects of what I do which is mostly HODL.. but surely you seem to be opposed to some aspects of what I do because you seem to NOT understand or accept certain angles based on your own lack of sufficient aggressiveness in your investing strategies in the past - and so in that regard, you seem to be having some difficulties relating to certain angles.. even though on several occasions I have attempted to 'splain such dynamics to you... and then instead of attempting to actually grapple with some of the angles you assert that I am misstating personal facts or some other nonsense baloney that likely helps you to NOT grapple with how seemingly boring can actually become exciting especially when it allows you to not have to worry about managing richie status or having a sufficient richie status cushion in order to NOT have to be regretful in regards to failing/refusing to be sufficiently aggressive in the past.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[naim027]

https://twitter.com/MayorConger/status/1469897847852175362?t=T1wLlTB2TLN4ZNit1b5ybA&s=19

Miami’s Bitcoin-loving mayor, Francis Suarez, told a reporter at Real Vision’s Takeover event in Las Vegas on Friday that he’s planning to take some of his 401K retirement in his favorite cryptocurrency.

The news comes a month after his reelection. Back then, the 41-year-old mayor announced he’d take his next paycheck in Bitcoin.

Source: https://decrypt.co/88098/miamis-mayor-wants-some-of-his-401k-in-bitcoin