High highs and higher lows? 12 months of consolidation at higher levels? Probably nothing... apart from the structure of an uptrend of course. Just saying.
I don't think this price level is the real test, but simply where price is expected to bounce from whether we are to go lower or make new ATH in the long-term.
The real test will be around $50K, whether at the Weekly MAs price continues higher or get's rejected and makes the first macro lower high.
For reference sake, like this in 2018. Even if around 6 months too late, the long-term bearish MA crossover & rejection did eventually confirm the downtrend:
Failing to reach $50K in the mid-term, or failing to reclaim $40K, would be a very bearish sign however. This should go without saying.
Ie the longer price spends at support levels, and the more re-tests that occur, the weaker the support and bulls will become.
Am otherwise seeing some similarities of price strength with 2019, with 3D RSI now oversold similar to the March Covid crash:
Based on the Daily RSI, price can certainly go lower (-20%) now that it's strength as reached a new oversold low. Same with the Weekly RSI that just turned bearish for the first time since March 2020.
While I'm anticipating a bounce from these mid $30K levels (since $46K broke) it will still be way too early to tell if the continuation of the uptrend will be immediate, or further consolidation is needed.
I otherwise consider that while price is in a
bullish structure, the long-term uptrend ended after 12 months of consolidation and once $46K broke. Now to see if we can return to an uptrend.
Bottoms up?
Also thinking the
shorter-term bear trend is nearing an end, or likely already over, after reaching the average trading price from the past year and accumulation zone at $34K.
Unless investors from the past 12 months are going to start selling at break even, in fear of $20K-$25K, traders are long gone with weak hands already flushed out.
Poll
