Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[d_eddie]

new from M. Saylor:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kx8goIcXa2Y

Meh. Looks like low quality clickbait.

Just some Saylor sayloring. The guy's good, I'm not disputing that, but it's more of the same with some ALL CAPS TITLE WITH AN INCREDIBLE REVELATION AT THE END!!! WATCH 1 HOUR OF STUFF BECAUSE IT'S ME AND SAYLOR! HE WILL REVEAL HIS PRICE PREDICTION AT THE END!!!! CLICK CLICK CLICK

And near the end, Saylor says... guess what?

"It's going up forever."

Uh, allright, thanks, some of us had forgotten that bit.

Uh, well, actually no one did 

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[lightfoot]

Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.

Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.

Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts.

Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-)

[lightfoot]

Not when but IF. This war rhetoric and rumors are beneficial to both sides whereas real war most probably won't be the case.  

Pretty much. Besides due to global warming the ground is not freezing properly in Ukraine meaning that the Ruskies will have to enjoy trying to move in mud. That could be a mess.

[philipma1957]

BTC traders need to be correct 501 out of 1,000 times.

Unfortunately, this is the common misconception with trading, that you have to be right 51% of the time. Complete nonsense.

I'll try and break this down as simply as possible;

1:1 risk reward, requires being right 51% of the time to be profitable
2:1 risk reward, requires being right 34% of the time..
3:1 risk reward, requires being right 26% of the time..
etc.

It's never about being right half the time, it's exclusively about the risk:reward ratio. Different traders have different success and and different risk rewards ratios.
The most profitable traders are arguably those that are only right 25-30% of the time, because they successfully target high risk reward (4:1 or 5:1).

This is why I make low cost high risk high reward mining part of my mining ⛏ plans.

[Lucius]

I don't think Putin is that stupid. And Russia's current Military capability is nothing like those of the Soviet Union. And the Soviet Unions Military might was grossly overstated as well.

Are you sure that Russia is not strong enough to conquer Ukraine in less than 14 days, even with the alleged military aid that Ukraine receives from some countries? 

The Russian Armed Forces are one of the world's largest military forces, with around a million active-duty personnel, which is the world's fifth-largest, and at least 2 million reserve personnel. It is mandatory for all male citizens aged 18–27 to be drafted for a year of service in the Armed Forces.

On the other hand, the EU as a whole has less than 2 million people in active military forces, which means that the EU would not have a good time if Putin decided to repeat what the Russians did during WW2 - the question of coming to Berlin would not be questionable at all, it would only be a matter of time.


Source

[Tash]

I don't think Putin is that stupid. And Russia's current Military capability is nothing like those of the Soviet Union. And the Soviet Unions Military might was grossly overstated as well.

Are you sure that Russia is not strong enough to conquer Ukraine in less than 14 days, even with the alleged military aid that Ukraine receives from some countries?  

The Russian Armed Forces are one of the world's largest military forces, with around a million active-duty personnel, which is the world's fifth-largest, and at least 2 million reserve personnel. It is mandatory for all male citizens aged 18–27 to be drafted for a year of service in the Armed Forces.

On the other hand, the EU as a whole has less than 2 million people in active military forces, which means that the EU would not have a good time if Putin decided to repeat what the Russians did during WW2 - the question of coming to Berlin would not be questionable at all, it would only be a matter of time.

[img height=50 height=300]https://i.imgur.com/ufo3qYU.png[/img]
Source

People still fantasise about some war, If no-one fights there is no war. Hitler made it mandatory to fight, same as politicians now, if people use some brain, that's it all done, war is won, sleep in the warm bed instead some wet, cold ditch some place far away and later built some railroad in a remote place freezing place

When cats and dogs are smarter than some people
https://youtu.be/akE2Sgg8hI8?t=14
.

[Copetech]

I don't think Putin is that stupid. And Russia's current Military capability is nothing like those of the Soviet Union. And the Soviet Unions Military might was grossly overstated as well.

Are you sure that Russia is not strong enough to conquer Ukraine in less than 14 days, even with the alleged military aid that Ukraine receives from some countries? 

The Russian Armed Forces are one of the world's largest military forces, with around a million active-duty personnel, which is the world's fifth-largest, and at least 2 million reserve personnel. It is mandatory for all male citizens aged 18–27 to be drafted for a year of service in the Armed Forces.

On the other hand, the EU as a whole has less than 2 million people in active military forces, which means that the EU would not have a good time if Putin decided to repeat what the Russians did during WW2 - the question of coming to Berlin would not be questionable at all, it would only be a matter of time.


Source

Don't forget the apparent alliances forming with Iran & China. Game theory this... simultaneously Russia moves on Ukraine as China takes back Taiwan and Iran launches into taking over large swaths of Iraq & Syria to create a direct front against Isreal.
Shuffle & regroup a bit, and these 3 forces could unite their territories to drastically reshape the world map & power structures.
For years Russia has been hesitant to rush headlong into Ukraine for fear of damaging the oil pipeline. But now that the Biden administration has wilfully abandoned the sanction/blockade against the Nordstream pipeline Russia has no fear of breaking things to reclaim former dominance.

It's getting a bit dicey, and with Biden administration's apparent compromised past with China, Iran, & Russian sympathies in Ukraine... I'm just not convinced that the world can depend on the US as an ally in this episode. Also have my concerns about Germany's position. WWIII is a possibility, but I'm somewhat concerned that it may just be a massive powershift with no real resistance.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[becoin]

Don't forget the apparent alliances forming with Iran & China. Game theory this... simultaneously Russia moves on Ukraine as China takes back Taiwan and Iran launches into taking over large swaths of Iraq & Syria to create a direct front against Isreal.

The single reason for war hysteria switching to wartime propaganda mode is the need for war. Anglo-Saxon world is bankrupt. They need war to write off the mountains of non-performing debt. However, if there is a war it won't be the one they need! At the end they will have to pay back everything they owe to the rest of the world. Germany and France must be very careful not to side with the warmongers!

[Torque]

Don't forget the apparent alliances forming with Iran & China. Game theory this... simultaneously Russia moves on Ukraine as China takes back Taiwan and Iran launches into taking over large swaths of Iraq & Syria to create a direct front against Isreal.

The single reason for war hysteria switching to wartime propaganda mode is the need for war. Anglo-Saxon world is bankrupt. They need war to write off the mountains of non-performing debt. However, if there is a war it won't be the one they need! At the end they will have to pay back everything they owe to the rest of the world. Germany and France must be very careful not to side with the warmongers!

Correct. TPTB NEED a hot war right now.

Oil, for better or worse, is still the lifeblood of the world's economy. It's also the lifeblood of the global military-industrial complex. Which has been sitting idle for years now, since Afghanistan and Syria have wound down.

And rn that oil is not being consumed at the level they want. Worldwide consumer demand has fallen off a cliff. Supply-side inflation means less goods being shipped. They have too much oil buildup. The TPTB need it to be consumed more to support the current price levels, and to justify more production.

War has always been about money and profits, and attempting to spur economic growth.

[BobLawblaw]

The FUD about Ukraine is misleading as well, NATO has already "invaded" Ukraine long ago

Source on this?

I'm following the developments quite closely, and know that NATO isn't touching Ukraine with a 10-ft pole over angering Russia.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[goldkingcoiner]

So what we are seeing is the result of the Russian crypto ban fud + Kazachstan internet shutdown + WW3 scares + interest rate fud.

Thats a lot of FUD for one month. If China invades Taiwan and Ukraine gets invaded then I am seeing really nice buying prices for this year. 10k would be nice.

The FUD about Ukraine is misleading as well, NATO has already "invaded" Ukraine long ago, the question is what Russia will do about it as NATO move closer to their borders and continues to provoke?

100k is coming, one way or another. The question is not if, but when.

Agreed.

Putin is a very smart man. He won't be provoked into starting a war that the US so desperately wants.

[d_eddie]

Other side and up is good as well, but if down then I prefer it when sleeping, full up my orders and be at the same high or higher as when I went sleeping 

+1 Best stacker feeling. I know what you're talking about.

IOW: Use dips to sleep better, not to lose sleep.

@jbreher, if you hear a ping: I meant to loose sleep.

[JayJuanGee]

Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.

Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.

Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts.

Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-)

Another part of the question would be if Somac has actually made it to such a level, and how much of a cushion does he have.. will he still sufficiently be at that status, even if BTC prices were in the $20ks for a decent amount of time. 

Surely, if he believes that it is even in the realm of possibilities to stay sub $20k for any period of time, that should be taken into account too.

If he feels that he has reached fuck you status at $20k, and is inclined to pull the fuck you lever, but he considers that there is a 5% or greater chance that BTC prices might go below $20k - but would not last for more than a year at most, then a year's worth of cashflow could be kept separate to prepare for such an outlier.....

Of course, in this example that I am attempting to outline, there would need to be a lot of confidence that below $20k would not be sustainable for more than a year (like almost a kind of absolutism confidence - which would be difficult to achieve without really knowing the future), and yeah, none of this is easy because if reality were to end up playing way worse than expected, we realize that our calculation of downside probabilities was too rosey... so then, maybe the threshold in order to retire now would be to have had achieved fuck you status at $10k.. and have the kind of confidence that serveria has stated to have regarding the $9k price threshold not being reached....

It seems to me that there are some BTC price points that we can place a high level of confidence (surely not non-zero, but still) that they will never be reached again..  and some people would be willing to do that with $20k, and some might be o.k. with that being $10k, and others might consider lower numbers... and for sure, there is some truth that even if we are accounting for outrageous scenarios that go below our numbers, we should not be planning the core of our life around such outrageous and hardly any chance Armageddon scenarios.. (even if we do not completely ignore such.. we still act in the more probable scenarios arena... while having some preparations in the outrageous hardly likely scenarios).

[cAPSLOCK]

Well, sucks to see that we hven't really bounced, at least it looks like we have found at the very least a short term support. I have a feeling we'll see a bounce next week though, as the Big banks have released reports showing what a massive mistake the Fed is making and they are absolutely right, take a look at it here. https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/here-comes-pivot-jpm-sees-sharp-slowdown-economy-no-further-hawish-developments-fed

Yeah.  That's the thing bothering me.  This is not exactly the V shaped bounce we would want...

At this point while I’m only an UP guy … I wouldn’t be bothered with a flash dip until 23k as max deep….

Got a ladder untill there

Though I wish up, long term I would be better of with the flash dip…

A shining example of the best position one could be in.  And it is not a simple place to find peace.  I feel certain that your poker experience has enabled you to detach (some) emotion in these circumstances.  It has for me.  That and being beaten to a bloody pulp by bitcoin's bear markets having been here for every last one of them. lol.

[cAPSLOCK]

The FUD about Ukraine is misleading as well, NATO has already "invaded" Ukraine long ago, the question is what Russia will do about it as NATO move closer to their borders and continues to provoke?

Well, you have made your position and allegiances clear.  I remember during the (second? I think?) gulf war.  I used to go to an auto shop run by Kurds.  Their position on the war and the US involvement in it was extremely unique amongst folks from the middle east.

Everyone has their allegiances.

I would love all the conflict to END.  But that is not in the cards.

Strategic trade routes, and places with particular natural resources are being fought for actively, and it's getting hotter each day.

The prelude to this great war is pretty close to over... the overture is winding up, and the big curtains are about to be drawn back.  At the very least it will be an interesting show... hopefully we all live to see the end of it.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

The FUD about Ukraine is misleading as well, NATO has already "invaded" Ukraine long ago, the question is what Russia will do about it as NATO move closer to their borders and continues to provoke?

At the very least it will be an interesting show... hopefully we all live to see the end of it.

the 'end of it' could be more than we bargained for.
i don't like the whole setup.

[cAPSLOCK]

Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.

Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.

Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts.

Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-)

sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD.  wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%.