Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[cAPSLOCK]

A little bit of light on a dim Monday.  I feel exactly zero sympathy for this asshole.  I feel a little bit for his family.  But I watched him personally cheer on the lawsuits coming out of the project he supported.

What he built was so CLOSE to a good idea but based on such a bad idea there was no saving it.

I saw many people saying it didn't matter if CSW was a fraudulent asshole, what was important was the fundamentals. No, the character of people is important. Steer clear of such people as much as you possibly can.

*I* may have said something that could be interpreted that way.  It's be hard to steer clear of myself.  But there is a great deal of nuance there if I did.

The sad ruined frog-person who founded Twetch blamed his failure on Calvin and Craig by saying "The tech works, but brand is everything".

And I think he is missing the elephant in the room.  Because there is no doubt that those two are a major negative for BSV.  I believe both of them to be different sorts of frauds.  But the fundamental issue is running TWITTER on an immutable database that aims to add more than a whole hard drive per day will end up being run by a centralized group of people, and then those people can conspire to wreck a business like Twetch.  I have watched this drama unfold.  And I do not know all the details.  But it is certain that this guy is on the outs with C&C, and they were pushing him out of the "BSV community".

But ultimately I think storing a bunch of shitposts on an immutable database is a HUGE ASS fundamental error.  And blaming your failure on a couple d-bags is missing the point.  It has nothing to do with brand... it is missing the point of what a blochain is for and ignoring that 16 nodes is not decentralized anymore.  C&C aim to get a court order to take Satoshi's coins... lol.  The chain has to be centralized to even do that.

[cAPSLOCK]

Relief rally? Or trap before the next bigger dump?

Exactly!

[dragonvslinux]

Probably nothing.



https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1485677497971019777

[UnDerDoG81]

Probably nothing.



https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1485677497971019777

Saw that today on Twitter but I can not read what that means. It gone up in the past and dumped. It gone up in the past and pumped.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dragonvslinux]

Probably nothing.



https://twitter.com/woonomic/status/1485677497971019777

Saw that today on Twitter but I can not read what that means. It gone up in the past and dumped. It gone up in the past and pumped.

Good point, maybe it's not clear. When it rises when price is near the highs, it's not much of a sign, as price can then dump afterwards (as well as whales), such as early 2021. When price is at lows and whales accumulating, then it often leads to price increase however, such as during Summer last year. Whales have been accumulating more since $55K correction down to $33K would be the relevant point here.

Whales dumping otherwise doesn't mean so much, they usually consistently sell & buy while price is rising, like from April 2020 to around March 2021, simply as old whales sell and new whales buys it seems. Or whales generally going in and out of positions quite regularly. Over all, since whales reached a low in March 2021, they have been consistently accumulating for nearly a year now. This is generally a good sign.

[AverageGlabella]

I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850. I am in a weird place now because I know it is the right decision and I have confidence in my decision but I am shaking all over the place. I have kept some emergency fund in my personal bank and if any other unexpected costs arise I will be prepared to take out what is required again from my Bitcoin fund.

The process of buying this amount was not easy I had to call my bank because the transaction was blocked then I had to wait 20-30 minutes for the bank to answer me. After that the customer service guy tried to lecture me about how cryptocurrency is very risky to invest in. I told him I had been around number of years but he said he had to go through all of it. I then had to confirm that I wanted to send this amount knowing the risk. They wanted me to come into the local bank and confirm some details but I told them because of the snowy conditions that would not be possible. He then allowed me to go through verification and send the amount. This probably took me over 2 hours to complete because I was put on hold many times. But do you know what the biggest eye opener of this experience was? with Bitcoin I would not need to go through this waste of time confirming my details because now I am my own bank. I do not need permission to spend my money even if it is for a risky investment. I am both relieved and scared. I have a lot of faith and I think I have bought at the best possible time and before completing the purchase I was 99% sure this was the right thing to do but the nerves have kicked in and I think I am probably about 60% sure now.

[philipma1957]

I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850. I am in a weird place now because I know it is the right decision and I have confidence in my decision but I am shaking all over the place. I have kept some emergency fund in my personal bank and if any other unexpected costs arise I will be prepared to take out what is required again from my Bitcoin fund.

The process of buying this amount was not easy I had to call my bank because the transaction was blocked then I had to wait 20-30 minutes for the bank to answer me. After that the customer service guy tried to lecture me about how cryptocurrency is very risky to invest in. I told him I had been around number of years but he said he had to go through all of it. I then had to confirm that I wanted to send this amount knowing the risk. They wanted me to come into the local bank and confirm some details but I told them because of the snowy conditions that would not be possible. He then allowed me to go through verification and send the amount. This probably took me over 2 hours to complete because I was put on hold many times. But do you know what the biggest eye opener of this experience was? with Bitcoin I would not need to go through this waste of time confirming my details because now I am my own bank. I do not need permission to spend my money even if it is for a risky investment. I am both relieved and scared. I have a lot of faith and I think I have bought at the best possible time and before completing the purchase I was 99% sure this was the right thing to do but the nerves have kicked in and I think I am probably about 60% sure now.

Brave nice 👍

[RejectedBanana]

When moon?

[PoolMinor]

[dragonvslinux]

When moon?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wBg1lBKtyg

[bitmover]

I do not need permission to spend my money even if it is for a risky investment.

This is why I will always have a huge % of my portfolio in bitcoin.

Bitcoin is the only money/asset/currency/whateverthatis that is truly mine. No politican,  no judge, no law, no woman, no dictator,  nobody can transfer without my consent (or my keys).

 do not have to pay comissions or ask for authorization to transfer it. If I die my heir can take it freely.

This is why I will always have it. This is why it is valuable to só many peopIe

Bitcoin already changed the world.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[fillippone]

Long time I have been hearing from Roger actually and much longer from that Jihan character

Both forked themselves into irrelevancy

Roger pretty much disappeared from everywhere...
Bitcoin talk: Not Active
Twitter: Dead
Reddit: disappeared
But it is very active non.. Drumroll..

Instagram!


Not a nice view, tbh.

[BTCaesar]

Relief rally? Or trap before the next bigger dump?

Exactly!

PumP b4 DumP

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[marcus_of_augustus]

I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850. I am in a weird place now because I know it is the right decision and I have confidence in my decision but I am shaking all over the place. I have kept some emergency fund in my personal bank and if any other unexpected costs arise I will be prepared to take out what is required again from my Bitcoin fund.

...

... respect. Welcome to the All-In Club.

... relax,  leave the old world behind as much as you can.

[julian071]

I think I just made the biggest decision of my life. I have converted nearly all my savings in fiat that I have amounted over my life time and invested all of it into Bitcoin @ around $36,850. I am in a weird place now because I know it is the right decision and I have confidence in my decision but I am shaking all over the place. I have kept some emergency fund in my personal bank and if any other unexpected costs arise I will be prepared to take out what is required again from my Bitcoin fund.

The process of buying this amount was not easy I had to call my bank because the transaction was blocked then I had to wait 20-30 minutes for the bank to answer me. After that the customer service guy tried to lecture me about how cryptocurrency is very risky to invest in. I told him I had been around number of years but he said he had to go through all of it. I then had to confirm that I wanted to send this amount knowing the risk. They wanted me to come into the local bank and confirm some details but I told them because of the snowy conditions that would not be possible. He then allowed me to go through verification and send the amount. This probably took me over 2 hours to complete because I was put on hold many times. But do you know what the biggest eye opener of this experience was? with Bitcoin I would not need to go through this waste of time confirming my details because now I am my own bank. I do not need permission to spend my money even if it is for a risky investment. I am both relieved and scared. I have a lot of faith and I think I have bought at the best possible time and before completing the purchase I was 99% sure this was the right thing to do but the nerves have kicked in and I think I am probably about 60% sure now.

Wow man, that sure is exciting! But you need to relax and just think about the long term. Yes you might have just bought at this years bottom (I believe so personally) but shit might happen and there might be a 6 month bear market. But just be patient.

In the end, BTC will either go to zero or it will be a great success. If the latter, you will be rich. Absolutely rich.

Also, sad to hear about your buying experience. That also depends on your country and on the bank. For me personally things are very different. I live in the NL and I have a crypto friendly bank. I lent money from them twice, once a commercial loan in 2014 and then a second mortgage in 2020 to buy BTC, and both times they agreed it was a good idea. I have never had any troubles whatsoever sending or receiving money from exchanges. I don't know what amounts we are talking about here, but in my case car-amounts, not house-amounts.

[PoolMinor]

Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.

Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.

Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts.

Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-)

sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD.  wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%.  

Part of the fallacy would be to presume an 85% correction without a sufficiently large blow off top.  It's hard to put $69k as such a sufficiently large blow off top, especially since we already had a 56% correction from almost the same number in May/June/July.... ...

But, hey, peeps can conjecture what they will in terms of how likely anything close to an 85% correction would be at this time, and surely an 85% correction from $69k does conveniently put us in the $10k range, and maybe that's part of the reason that there is so much hopium of some DOWNity projecting folks that BTC actually has any kind of a chance to get to those $10k-ish levels.. good luck with those numbers folks, you are going to really need it if you are putting any of your money down that far..

For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting?  are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200  



I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...?



sucks to be me....  

The most simplest explanation is we won't have a blow off top.....Miner's revenue is the chart that needs to be observed.

Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around. China ban actually set the progression of mining revenue back about 6 months.

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/miners-revenue

[Biodom]

Well, I was going to retire on my holdings and I still could easily enough, but, that would mean I wouldn't be DCA anymore. If this is a bear market, I don't want to miss the opportunity to stack more sats. I'm still young enough so why not.

Hm. One problem with waiting is that each day of your life is another day gone forever that no amount of $$$ or BTC can ever bring back.

Another is that once you decide to do it there's a fair bit of prep work you need to do before launching into retirement or whatnot. Tax thoughts, personal thoughts, what you might want to do thoughts.

Might be good to just cash out enough for a few months, quit, and see how you like it. Worst case you get a better job. :-)

sO TRUE... ALTHOUGH IT'S QUALITY BLACK TAR HOPIUM AND TIMES ARE HARD.  wE IDTIO mAXI NGU-ERS HAVE TO COPE AS HARD AS WE CAN AS WE GO DOWN 85%.  

Part of the fallacy would be to presume an 85% correction without a sufficiently large blow off top.  It's hard to put $69k as such a sufficiently large blow off top, especially since we already had a 56% correction from almost the same number in May/June/July.... ...

But, hey, peeps can conjecture what they will in terms of how likely anything close to an 85% correction would be at this time, and surely an 85% correction from $69k does conveniently put us in the $10k range, and maybe that's part of the reason that there is so much hopium of some DOWNity projecting folks that BTC actually has any kind of a chance to get to those $10k-ish levels.. good luck with those numbers folks, you are going to really need it if you are putting any of your money down that far..

For sure Raja_MBZ has closer odds with his hope for the BTC price to reach the 200-week moving average.. which still seems that he is going to have a bit of longshot troubles with that .. at least in our current correction (absent some kind of black swan or something.. which how many black swans can we be getting?  are black swans more likely these days or something?).... but at least the 200-week moving average is a wee bit closer than $10k-ish.... it's currently at: $19,200  



I am thinking that the 200-week moving average will more than double (probably 3x) before it is actually met again.. .. but hey.. maybe I am filled with my own levels of unrealistic hopium...?



sucks to be me....  

The most simplest explanation is we won't have a blow off top.....Miner's revenue is the chart that needs to be observed.

Might seem counter-intuitive but it is mining difficulty that drives price not the other way around. China ban actually set the progression of mining revenue back about 6 months.

https://www.blockchain.com/charts/miners-revenue

maybe i am misunderstanding what you are saying, but there is plenty of evidence during 2014-2015 when difficulty was steadily rising and the price dropping until a couple of adjustment periods where difficulty started decreasing and miners started bowing out; then the price turned around and started gaining or at least not decreasing.