Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[AlcoHoDL]

To AverageGlabella - the only regret anybody has on this forum is that they did not buy more Bitcoin at (insert any date here)

So very true. That's my only regret too. Had I invested what I could have invested at the time I bought my first BTC (2015), I would now own about an order of magnitude (10x) more coins than I currently own.

This is a lesson for all Bitcoin noobs that read this: don't hesitate, invest a generous amount. Don't make the same mistake many of us did...

I have my cold wallet stash which I add to periodically and use Bitcoin as my savings and deposit account adding spare fiat when available and only taking some out when absolutely needed. Loans are still cheap and the first call for unexpected day to day outgoings.

The highlighted part is the most important for a HoDLer. Never sell any amount of BTC, unless you will immediately use the fiat to pay for something you absolutely need. Few understand this. Selling your precious BTC just to fill a bank account with fiat is a stupid move in the long term. You may feel you have "locked in some profits" in the short term, especially when there's a dip (like now), but when Bitcoin reaches and exceeds 6 digits and beyond, you will realise the stupid mistake you've made.

[1714258236]

1714258236

[1714258236]

1714258236

[1714258236]

1714258236

[goldkingcoiner]

Well, it finally happened. I am Corona positive.

This is almost as much of a bummer as BTC not reaching 100k last year.

[cAPSLOCK]

Well then.  Here we are again...

Two things of note, to me.

1.  We are knocking on the top of this trough as long as you ignore the crazy woowoo candle that happened on Stamp (I guess some leveraged positions swept)

2.  The price is rising enthusiastically but the volume is NOTHING compared to the drop.  This says to me AGAIN that the DROP was participated in by retail investors.  But it is most likely that the recovery has been happening over the counter.  This means OTC desks are where the buying is, and there is at least more retail involved in the selling.  Par for the course.

[cAPSLOCK]

Aren't we already at moon?

Yup.  We have gone to the moon, and come back a couple times now...  base is under construction.  Next expedition is to Mars or Venus, I will guess.  And we will probably launch that journey from the moon.  Wonder when?

[OutOfMemory]

Well, it finally happened. I am Corona positive.

This is almost as much of a bummer as BTC not reaching 100k last year.

Search for some advice from the Covid Thread.
Get yourself some nasal spray containing more than 1,2% of carrageenan extract. Use it also for the throat.
It reduces viral load quite efficiently, saves your immune system a lot of (hard) work.
Stay hydrated. I mean 4 liters per day, like half a glass in about 15 minutes throughout the day.
Wish you the best!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[El duderino_]

Aren't we already at moon?

Yup.  We have gone to the moon, and come back a couple times now...  base is under construction.  Next expedition is to Mars or Venus, I will guess.  And we will probably launch that journey from the moon.  Wonder when?

Curious if we have seen the bottom or not....

exciting period imo

[dragonvslinux]

Two things of note, to me.

2.  The price is rising enthusiastically but the volume is NOTHING compared to the drop.  This says to me AGAIN that the DROP was participated in by retail investors.  But it is most likely that the recovery has been happening over the counter.  This means OTC desks are where the buying is, and there is at least more retail involved in the selling.  Par for the course.

Are you sure about that? Looking at the CB 3 day chart (as well as BLX index), the ~10% rebound actually had slightly more volume than the ~15% drop, as well as the highest 3D green candle since May 2021 



I'm not one to look at the 3D chart very often, but I'm aware that instiutions quite like it as a split between the Daily and Weekly charts, especially for mid-week analysis. The yellow line is otherwise the 200 MA, that's rising bullish, on this time-frame things looks fine - pretty good even ironically. Looks to me more like retail selling / short liquidations followed by institutional buying into strong liquidity, just as they like it.

But hey, this is just my opinion. I remain bullish at these levels, but I'm also very biased as price remains in a bullish structure of higher highs and higher lows within a macro sized bull flag of consolidation.

Yesterday I saw a video on Tiktok from this Pablo guy (thinks he is Bitcoin Jesus). He is saying that Michael Saylor bought almost all of his Bitcoin in leverage, that he is only the CEO of Microstrategy and that if the others want, they can panic sell all Bitcoins without MS agreeing to it and that he lost trillions in the dot com bubble. I was always suspicious about Michael Saylor, but then again, I never trust rich people.

I have no clue about all this and wonder what you all think about this? Will MS be the new MtGox who will cause the next Bitcoin crash at some point?

Yes.. UnDerDoG81..you seem quite intent upon selling your BTC at the bottom..   and looking for reasons to do so.

Lol. A possible mindrust in the making here 

[JayJuanGee]

So when I say 'moon', I'm interested in what price we stabilize at.

Do stability exist? Can a currency realize stabilize?

Even EURUSD pair is quite crazy sometimes.

Even BTC stabilize, USD will never be stable. Crazy events in the world will make the price go up and down.

The life of btc holders will always have huge up and downs. Volatility will become smaller, but we will see at least some 20% up and down in a year for sure, just like gold and other assets and currencies.

I will speculate that you are correct that there is likely NOT going to be a lot of stability in BTC until price gets to some place higher than 10x of gold, and sure it may need to get quite a bit higher than that.. but somewhere in the territory of 10x of gold to 1,000x of gold bitcoin is going to become quite a bit more stable... so that seems to be a ways off.. at least 6 years minimum.. but more likely greater than 12 years...and a lot can happen between now and 12 years from now in order to inform the thinking on this matter and also the extent to which progress is being made passed the 10x of gold and towards the 1,000x of gold arena... 10x of gold is $5 million per coin.

10 years ago i found bitcoin, and vowed i would ride this pig either into the ground or right to the moon. its allowed me to retire early already.

you and BJA too..   What a coincidence.

its a pretty good ride.

Not for BJA.. I think that he gave up around $500-ish.

err.. whats a "BJA" ?

i just knoooow ill regret this

You should not regret this kind of a thing.

I cannot quote from the post because the thread is closed:....

but here is a link to the June 4, 2011 post:
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12156.msg169810#msg169810

Here is the relevant BJA quote contained therein:

>>>>>
"I don't care about the busts. I am riding this pig wherever it takes me. If it tanks, I'll have a helluva story to tell. I'm sick of half measures. I'm swinging for the fences and If I strike out, so be it.  I won't be some mediocre drone living a life of quiet desperation. I believe in bitcoin and I'm going for broke, knowing the risks. "
<<<<<<<<<<<

[jojo69]

This is almost as much of a bummer as BTC not reaching 100k last year.

[Farmer Bill]

Yesterday I saw a video on Tiktok from this Pablo guy (thinks he is Bitcoin Jesus). He is saying that Michael Saylor bought almost all of his Bitcoin in leverage, that he is only the CEO of Microstrategy and that if the others want, they can panic sell all Bitcoins without MS agreeing to it and that he lost trillions in the dot com bubble. I was always suspicious about Michael Saylor, but then again, I never trust rich people.

I have no clue about all this and wonder what you all think about this? Will MS be the new MtGox who will cause the next Bitcoin crash at some point?

A man on the internet (ie a random fuckwit) said "any old shit"     so it must be true.

As Jay said just sell all your coins now you don't need an excuse

But it wont make you any less stressed out as your fiat will have devalued 30% over next 4 years while you will never afford to buy those bitcoin back.

DYOR on MSTR the NASDAQ listed company.

[Hueristic]

Well, it finally happened. I am Corona positive.

Isolate and as others have stated stay hydrated and keep those sinuses flushed.



Shaking off the last of it the last few days, almost got rid of the lung fluid.

Was down for a few days and a couple nights without sleep do to breathing issues.

This new variant was similar to the flu for me (I'm vaxxed with pfizer).

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

Hmm, i don't even believe in any "miner costs control price" dynamics. It can only have a tiny fraction of influence on the price, i'm not that dumb
Seems like the good ol' misunderstanding, but i am not too surprised, because i picked out a wee aspect of a complex system, where one output parameter results in the property "price".
But the initial thought was quite simple and might have mislead you in believing that i look at the market in a simple way. Well, sometimes i do, when i try to explain bitcoin to noobs (rarely) but that's a whole different story. To be honest, my understanding of market details and their dependencies is very limited, but every now and then some new understandings click into place, and your detailed posts about the matter also contribute to this more often than not.

It seems that we are all guilty of this to some degree... I mean for sure a considerable amount of analysis likely needs to be done in order to really discuss the various influences upon BTC price and how those influences might both be traded off and even manipulated in the short term. Frequently, simplified explanations will end up playing out, whether we are talking with a newbie on the street (and trying to build up to what we might be trying to describe), or even if we might be dealing with someone who is more sophisticated but is coming to the opposite conclusion.  For sure people involved in bitcoin mining have some decent knowledge about bitcoin technicalities, but if start to make proclamations about the price based on an incomplete set of facts or logic, one possible retort back might be to use the same superficial information and just assert that they are full of shit.. without really backing up the claim regarding why they are full of shit.. because sometimes none of us have time to be getting into detailed backing up of counter-claims when the first claim was poorly backed up in the first place.

Ain't nobody got time for that.

To AverageGlabella - the only regret anybody has on this forum is that they did not buy more Bitcoin at (insert any date here)

So very true. That's my only regret too. Had I invested what I could have invested at the time I bought my first BTC (2015), I would now own about an order of magnitude (10x) more coins than I currently own.

This is a lesson for all Bitcoin noobs that read this: don't hesitate, invest a generous amount. Don't make the same mistake many of us did...

These days, I like to label such actions as being sufficiently aggressive within your means... so the better that you understand your situation, the more you will understand how aggressive you can be without transgressing too far into a kind of gambling (rather than investing) mode.

In the good ole days, maybe $10 per week might be aggressive.  These days gotta at least start at $100 per week (absent some real cashflow lim limitation issues).

Also, I moved my recommendation for the allocation range for getting started from between 1% and 10% up to between 1% and 25%... of course, the more you study the matter, the higher you might be able to go within the range or even might be able to graduate to levels above the range.

I have my cold wallet stash which I add to periodically and use Bitcoin as my savings and deposit account adding spare fiat when available and only taking some out when absolutely needed. Loans are still cheap and the first call for unexpected day to day outgoings.

The highlighted part is the most important for a HoDLer. Never sell any amount of BTC, unless you will immediately use the fiat to pay for something you absolutely need. Few understand this. Selling your precious BTC just to fill a bank account with fiat is a stupid move in the long term. You may feel you have "locked in some profits" in the short term, especially when there's a dip (like now), but when Bitcoin reaches and exceeds 6 digits and beyond, you will realise the stupid mistake you've made.

Lot's of truth there.. You can also consider the spend and replace method.. which allows you to sell to get what you need... and then to attempt to replace what you sold within a reasonably expedited fashion.. and surely it may take a long time to do the replacement, especially if the amount was high.. and maybe you will never be able to completely replace what you spent, especially if the BTC price ends up moving up in the meantime.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[d_eddie]

AFP News Agency
@AFP
#BREAKING IMF urges El Salvador to remove Bitcoin as legal tender
7:59 PM · Jan 25, 2022·TweetDeck

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/1486051087736094729


EDIT: IMF seriously legitimating our lil fiend. This is big^TM.

[Richy_T]

I do gather that you, richie, are inclined to follow the price follows hashrate nonsense,

Let me stop you right there. That is by no means the case and I don't believe I have ever stated anything that could even be construed as such.

As far as I'm concerned, we're in a process where Bitcoin is trying to find where its price matches its value (and I believe we are quite a long way yet) via the market discovery process. Along the way that will be moderated by a variety of mechanisms which I won't go into here but a little logic shows that this can only be accomplished via a volatile process (how volatile it needs to be is an interesting question but the actuality is that it has been violently volatile). This process seems to be fairly well divorced from the hashrate.

Now, the mechanism for hashrate seems to be "If Bitcoin is profitable, buy more equipment". That does potentially link hashrate and price (but not in the direction that the opinion you incorrectly ascribe to me would suggest). However, as Bitcoin as near as dammit always been profitable, the restricting factor has been equipment availability which has lead to a total divorce between the two concepts. I will say that on at least one occasion, miners have surprised me by being willing to be patient for future profits rather than following pragmatism but they surely had good reason and that doesn't really affect things much.

[Richy_T]

Well, it finally happened. I am Corona positive.

This is almost as much of a bummer as BTC not reaching 100k last year.

Take two of these and call me in the morning.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

I do gather that you, richie, are inclined to follow the price follows hashrate nonsense,

Let me stop you right there. That is by no means the case and I don't believe I have ever stated anything that could even be construed as such.

As far as I'm concerned, we're in a process where Bitcoin is trying to find where its price matches its value (and I believe we are quite a long way yet) via the market discovery process. Along the way that will be moderated by a variety of mechanisms which I won't go into here but a little logic shows that this can only be accomplished via a volatile process (how volatile it needs to be is an interesting question but the actuality is that it has been violently volatile). This process seems to be fairly well divorced from the hashrate.

Now, the mechanism for hashrate seems to be "If Bitcoin is profitable, buy more equipment". That does potentially link hashrate and price (but not in the direction that the opinion you incorrectly ascribe to me would suggest). However, as Bitcoin as near as dammit always been profitable, the restricting factor has been equipment availability which has lead to a total divorce between the two concepts. I will say that on at least one occasion, miners have surprised me by being willing to be patient for future profits rather than following pragmatism but they surely had good reason and that doesn't really affect things much.

Well I am glad that you stated your position more specifically, and surely I am not proclaiming that any of us will be able to articulate the many ways that bitcoin price moves in one direction or another whether we are talking about short-term or long term, but those fairly simplified assertions that BTC price is lead by hashrate seem quite wanting in terms of their explanations and I am glad to hear that are not falling in that camp.  

For sure, even if we might be asserting that BTC price does not necessarily follow hashrate or mining costs, for sure, for whatever reasons, there are going to be short-term correlations, and for sure a decently large numbers of miners are motivated by either current price or their speculations about future price, whether short-term, long-term or speculating about various aspects of operating their business that might also have some relationships to BTC price movements.. and for sure uncertainties too.. that are not just about BTC price, directly - such as energy costs or like you mentioned, cost and availability of some kinds of equipment or parts - or maybe another somewhat unrelated cost that you mentioned a while back.. the cost of wood to build a shed.. for example..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation