Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days
Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days
Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days
Are you sure we have hit the peak of this bull run?
There are much more hodlers this cycle, at least if you trust onchain data analysis.
So i doubt a retrace in the 70% ranges. I am also not so sure that we have hit this cycles peak yet.
Framing the top for this cycle as a certainty is likely to lead to problematic conclusions.... especially when at best maybe you could argue greater than 50% odds that the top is in, and I personally do not believe that it is greater than 50% odds that the top is in, even though I do understand that others could come to such a conclusion.. and perhaps even somewhat reasonable persons... hahahahahaha
On about December 16, the last time that I really went through an attempt at measuring whether the top was in, I got around 45% odds (and sure there is a bit of SOMA in that), and maybe I would be willing to tweak my numbers a wee bit since then.. but from my ongoing attempt to understand what is going on, there does not seem to be enough information to tip us over a 50% reading that the top is in... ..and maybe the most persuasive part would be that we are spending so much time in a kind of 45%-50% correction zone.. which causes it to become harder to believe that BTC prices are going to just double to get us back to our November 9 ATH.. It just feels like fantasy thinking, even though many of us know that BTC is quite capable of such - especially once the UPpity momentum gets going, it becomes harder to keep honey badger down in those kinds of circumstances of previous seemingly outrageous suppression....
So, yeah, maybe at best a reasonable person might come up with reasons to assign slightly higher than 50% odds to the top already being in.. but nothing close to treating it as a certainty seems reasonable.. at least not based on current data and logic in front of those of us who can see it.
Sane reasoning there, J.
I am a poker player, so i always try to expect the unexpected, even if against the odds.
We might be speaking past each other a bit because it seems that I am somewhat focused on suggesting that whatever drop in BTC price that we have had so far, maybe nearly 53%, if we are referring to $32,951 as our low of the correction, so far. When focusing on whether the top is in, I am still considering that the odds have not really changed that much.. maybe they came down a few percentage points... from 55% to nearly 50%, and maybe we could even go a bit greater than that... So I was not even attempting to address the variety of other scenarios.. just focusing on whether the top is in or not.
So, if you are assigning different odds or you are focusing on some other question, then we might be getting into a kind of preparing for something that is low odds.
Also, the guy who assigns near certainty to the top already being in seems to be engaging in risky gambling scenario to me, even though s/he might end up being correct that is at best in the 50/50 arena.
Since Bitcoin didn't do this (tumbling because of bans and politics) before, this cycle, could as well be longer than those in the past. The odds that Bitcoin will persist are above 99,9% though, just because it's great and fits that narrow gap which fiat can't close, as it is.
Well you seem to be raising two questions here. One question relates to the top not being in, and so therefore, the cycle dragging out longer.. which surely seems like a reasonable outcome, and the other more extreme you are asserting that bitcoin is not going to go to zero... Yeah.. of course, that is more or less a given and not really being discussed.. but if you want to talk about a more realistic scenario, then we might talk about whether lows are going to go further than $32,951, or whether we will get back into the $20ks and will we break below $28,600, will we reach the lower $20ks and will we break below $20k.. those would be more urgent questions rather than something that you are assigning 99.9% odds of not happening... Why go to such extremes when it is hardly even an immediate question in front of us?
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I think the first simple indicator we need to see to determine a top is in is a simple lower low. Which depending on your interpretation would be somewhere between 29313 and 30k.
O.k.. fair enough that the end of this cycle could be determined by a lower low.. I doubt that would be enough to convince me, but staying below the 104-week moving average for a significant amount of time., such as one to two weeks would likely convince me that the cycle has good chances of being over... currently the 104-week moving average is around $31k.
I think, unfortunately this is DEFINITELY a non-zero chance scenario. :/
Sure, bitcoin prices can move 10% to 20% pretty quickly in either direction.. and surely it is helpful to be at least 20% above any price that you are in fear of reaching... and if any of us is contemplating whether a bottom is in, then it is nice to get at least 20% to 40% above that feared "bottom price" before becoming too smug about any assertions that the bottom is "in"
In fact... if we do not see a turnaround from where we are it's a fair certainty.
I don't know about that. Of course, it is nice if we are able to get some kind of clear bounce off of a bottom, but sometimes there is a gradual rise from the bottom before a distance is made to cause some certainties about the bottom being in. For sure, I am not anywhere close to asserting that this bottom is in or close to being in when the best that we have gotten, so far, is a bounce up to $39k - which is merely an 18% bounce from the bottom and hardly even enough to have confidence that the bottom is in..
Maybe these days we are going to need to look at the $46k to $50k price range before starting to feel some confidence about the bottom being in..so yeah.. we are not even close to that.. so maybe there is a need to flesh out some ideas about how far the down might go.. how long it might stay down and whether any of those down scenarios might negate the possibility of even getting into some kind of price (such as within the $46k to $50k range currently), in which we might be able to develop some confidence that the bottom is in..
I feel like this is the type of thing John Madden (RIP) would say. "For this team to win they are going to need to get the ball down the field, and score!".
Well in this case, for Bitcoin not to go further down, it needs to start going up!
Fair enough.
Seems to me there are fundamentals that support the go-up scenario... and there are certain events, and some technical reasons we should be prepared for downity as you like to put it.
Either way I will be fine, though I admit, a third push to a new ATH would be a nifty new thing to happen "this cycle".
For sure this cycle is having several differences that seem inevitable etched in already, whether we end up going down from here or up from here.. and yeah, I really doubt that we will go sideways for very long.. but who knows..?
I suppose that if we were to make some kind of a SOMA prediction for the next 3 months (end of April), maybe we could say something like from here $36k--- the odds of finishing the 3 months above $46k would be something like 38%, the odds for going finishing below $30k would be something like 33% and the odds for sideways (finishing within the range) would be something like 30%... I suppose that we could come up with all kinds of timelines about where we might finish at the end of the timeline or what might be the highest/lowest price during that timeline. I am not saying that I know, but each of us may well come up with different probability assignments, depending upon how the question is framed and also maybe how strongly we might be influenced by recent BTC price dynamics, too.
Poll
