Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ImThour]

Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days

Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days

Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days

[1714986512]

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[1714986512]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hisslyness]

Wrong, just plain wrong mate!. You are NOT applying the Elliot wave theory properly.

You are moving the chart to fit your narrative.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5379463.20

That threads discusses and explains the theory better, and actually puts us on the last leg up!

I understand your point, thanks for sharing the thread. I am learning Elliot Wave and tried to implement it on the chart.
Cheers!

I have been following Elliot wave theory since OP first posted back in 2017/18

One thing I have learnt, it is about price trajectory/movement and NOT time.

[ImThour]

I have been following Elliot wave theory since OP first posted back in 2017/18

One thing I have learnt, it is about price trajectory/movement and NOT time.

So I am sure you are making alot of profit since that time? and you knew the crash from ATH to 34k before hand?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[hisslyness]

I have been following Elliot wave theory since OP first posted back in 2017/18

One thing I have learnt, it is about price trajectory/movement and NOT time.

So I am sure you are making alot of profit since that time? and you knew the crash from ATH to 34k before hand?

No, no, I am not a trader. My Bitcoin accumulation was from mining back in 2013-2018… not interested in selling small amounts to buy back later, I am not a trader and therefore it will be the quickest way to loose it!

You need to have a different mindset to be a trader. You want big profits from Bitcoin, easy, buy now and hold for the next 10 years!

Remember, EWT, It doesn’t tell you exact pricing, just price movements, but doing what JJG says and setting buy ladders down really helps DCA…

The last two dips I was able to hit close to the bottom, but my buy ladder was a space of 2k, I was off by about $400.00

Again this is just for the sake of #BTFD and adding to my LN node without exposing my offline wallet…

[hisslyness]

Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days

Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days

Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days

Are you sure we have hit the peak of this bull run?

[OutOfMemory]

Halving 1:
8300% Up after First Halving - Took 335 Days
80% Down in 426 days

Halving 2:
2300% Up after Second Halving - Took 487 Days
75% Down in 396 days

Halving 3:
570% Up after Third Halving - Took 487 Days
Prediction: 70% Down in 426 days

Are you sure we have hit the peak of this bull run?

There are much more hodlers this cycle, at least if you trust onchain data analysis.
So i doubt a retrace in the 70% ranges. I am also not so sure that we have hit this cycles peak yet.

[ivomm]

There is something that bothers me for some time. If someone knows the answers, it would be nice to share them. It is about the derivate markets. It is clear that the cash settled futures contract divert money from acutal invesment in Bitcoin, thus creating an artificial paper liquidity. My quiestion is whether what is happening on the derivate exchanges can lead to a pump/dump of the spot exchanges? It is supposed that derivate exchanges follow the spot exchanges with their index price, not vice  versa, but is this the reality? I have the gut feeling that the spot exchange traders look at the derivate exchanges and if they see a dump there, they also sell. Which is illogical especially for the cash settled contracts. Because nobody can transfer a paper bitcoin and sell it on a spot exchange. But the daily traders have proved many times they have no clue about... anything, even basic math. Also, I wonder if Binance has a physical futures contracts like bakkt,  because a lot of derivate trade is going on there lately and it seems to has an impact on the spot price.

Can paper derivatives effect the underlying? Yes. Can it get to the point where the tail's wagging the dog? Possible, and therere examples in history when that happened, but i don't believe that it's happening with BTC.

Just a hypothetical, lets image you have 100.000 cash settled futures contracts which you got at an average price of $40.000/BTC, they expire today and lets say they use exchange's XYZ spot as a reference rate.
Imagine that current spot on XYZ is $37.500.
1-You don't do anything, Futures settle at $37,5k, you loose $2.500 per contract so you're down $250MM total. That sucks!

2-You look at XYZ and notice that the ask side of the book is pretty thin, you estimate that there will only be BTC5.000 for sale between $37,5k and $42,5k. You transfer $200MM to XYZ and buy everything in sight until $42.5k.
=You're successful and price closes at $42,5k. You're up $2,5k per contract or $250M from futures, but you bought BTC5k for $200MM, so you end up with $50MM and BTC5k profit.
=You're not successful and market actually moves against you and settles at $35k. You lost $500MM on futures, and paid $200M for BTC5k which are now only worth $175MM. -525MM REKT

And it works the other way around. If you sold futures, and then try to short the spot to bring it down so you're more profitable.

Problem is you need to corner the market to be able to pull this off, and there are always bigger whales. Futures platforms are not that dumb too, so theyre using weighted averages across multiple exchanges as a reference rate https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/cryptocurrency-indices/cf-bitcoin-reference-rate.html

There are hedge fund market makers and then there are youtube daily traders that cant do basic math. Don't confuse the two.

BAKKT is not even on a map anymore, do they even still offer BTC futures? Binance is currently the biggest dog and believe they're BTC settled. https://analytics.skew.com/dashboard/bitcoin-futures

Edit: fillippone popped in right on time, he has a whole thread on futures https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5188060

Thanks for the explanations! I found the answer for Binance:
https://www.binance.com/en/blog/margin/what-you-should-know-about-crypto-margin-trading-vs-futures-trading-421499824684902310
It seems that margin trades with leverage are like cash settled futures but they involve real bitcoins. Thus the margin trading can affect directly the spot price, even whithout delibarate manipulations. So, what happened in the last year is that many thought the bull run will continue and opened all kinds of leverage margin longs. Each time someone bought and the price rose 1-2% the highest leverage longs hurried to close the positions realizing some profit depending on the leverage. That would bring the price at the previous level, and in some cases lower. Which in turn would trigger a margin call and liquidations of the high leverage longs that weren't closed. And so on, the long squeeze happened many times with some days of ~$1bil long losses. At the peaks before the crashes longs were above $3bil. Now, the longs are at the lowest level at $1.5bil and the shorts are climbing up. Obviously many think that we are in a bear market and expect another crash. This may lead to the opposite - a short squeeze. For the Binance longs/shorts I follow the free https://blockchainwhispers.com/bitmex-position-calculator#, although it does not tell which part is margin and which is futures cash contracts.

[LFC_Bitcoin]

Elliot Wave Theory on BTC at Weekly Time Frame

Dude there’s more chance of me bedding Margot Robbie than bitcoin going anywhere near below $10,000 in our lifetime.

Sub $1,000?
You must be high on crack.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

Elliot Wave Theory on BTC at Weekly Time Frame

Dude there’s more chance of me bedding Margot Robbie than bitcoin going anywhere near below $10,000 in our lifetime.

Sub $1,000?
You must be high on crack.

I am not sure (Idiocracy meme here) if the EW Theory is appliciable to Bitcoin anyway, because of the halvenings and adoption rate.
As for conventional assets, well, would suit a lot better, imo.

[cAPSLOCK]

Elliot Wave Theory on BTC at Weekly Time Frame

That's some highly refined doom right there.  If Proudhon did EW?

So, there is this thing I have always seen that has puzzled me about systems like EW, or S2F, or what's the other one with springs etc? 

For them to be always right they have to be able to overcome fundamentals, and macro forces.

Seems to me they are like a ship in a bottle.  Pretty to look at, and obviously a ship! But destined to never sail the seas.  Take this hypothetical situation.  Pandemics, wars, countries adopting Bitcoin, all FIAT currencies being destroyed before our eyes.  The markets teetering on the edge of collapse.

Really... if that chart comes true under THAT set of circumstances a LOT of people are going to die. 

Not because of the fact that Bitcoin crashed back down to $800.  But that the world got to a place where fundamentally that made any sense at all.

See what I am saying?

I say consider all theories.  And this one, to come true...  Oof.

[xhomerx10]

By the way, I sent the above image to someone via text in real life, and at the time of sending the pic, I pretty much said:  "You need to be more like me," and the person told me that I needed to explain the picture MOAR better because the picture does not make sense, and I refused to explain the picture.  I said that the picture is self-explanatory.. and should be studied more closely in order to understand it.  

One of the problems of peeps in real life.. sometimes, and in that regard, I guess I am a meanie in real life, too.. because I refuse to explain more than what is already shown in the picture.

 That is kinda mean Mr. JJG.  You've gotten your friends, acquaintances and enemies alike used to a certain standard of communication and then you pull the rug out from under them with a simple picture?  A picture may paint a thousand words but it can't hold a candle to you, sir.  I suggest you apologize to that "someone" and strive to maintain excellence in all further communications.  Pfft... a picture. 

[cAPSLOCK]

Dude there’s more chance of me bedding Margot Robbie than bitcoin going anywhere near below $10,000 in our lifetime.

Sub $1,000?
You must be high on crack.

Had to google Margot Robbie since I do not know celebrities.

Woof.  OK.  I would be willing for Bitcoin to go back down to 800 for you... It would have to come back up really fast.  And I am also going to sell my house for the dip.

[ImThour]

Dude there’s more chance of me bedding Margot Robbie than bitcoin going anywhere near below $10,000 in our lifetime.

Sub $1,000?
You must be high on crack.

I already admitted after that post that the chart is completely wrong.

I understand your point, thanks for sharing the thread. I am learning Elliot Wave and tried to implement it on the chart.
Cheers!

Thanks for your input, I don't do drugs lmao.

[cAPSLOCK]

Dude there’s more chance of me bedding Margot Robbie than bitcoin going anywhere near below $10,000 in our lifetime.

Sub $1,000?
You must be high on crack.

I already admitted after that post that the chart is completely wrong.

I understand your point, thanks for sharing the thread. I am learning Elliot Wave and tried to implement it on the chart.
Cheers!

Thanks for your input, I don't do drugs lmao.

Dont take our scoffing too hard. Lol.  I mean, that looks like the 5 up 3 down bullmarket plus correction EW graph all right.  I just think it would take something catastrophic to make it go like that.

The scary bit is we seem to be experiencing a good deal of catastrophe... ;/ 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

I know OT but fuck it made me laugh what an absolute shit show ETH and it's leaders are

https://twitter.com/ethdotorg/status/1485644472880877572



"We've removed all uses of 'Eth2' terminology on http://ethereum.org"

Now no one can say Eth 2.0 will never come, because they don't even call it that anymore. Genius!

It's like watching a Rube Goldberg machine being built in real time.