Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chessnut]

Wait so this is now the rumor about a rumor?

yep, crazy huh.

BUY BUY BUY!

the reaction to this rumour will expose the credibility of the first.

[chessnut]

I agree that sell volume was not as strong on the last push down, but buy volume was enemic.

I guess you think the worst is past us. No more issues from here. $436 is the new perma-low.

buy volume = sell volume, not so?

everyone seems to think the bottom will be much lower, so I am assured that it will not be much lower. the amount of people who are ready on the trigger to close their shorts and fill their bags with bitcoin on leverage at sub 400 is massive.

[JayJuanGee]

Still does not feel like a bottom. 

We haven't seen high volume on anything yet.  This one is slow and painful.

bottoms come when sellers are exhausted (no volume left), volume comes soon before a bottom, but not at the bottom.

So we only see bottoms, like the ones in the pictures, during high volume?   

And, accordingly, I would take it that the volume is high during the bottom, and then there is a switch in direction and the volume stays high until it tapers out for consolidation or thereafter volume stays up for some time before it goes up and tapers out at a higher amount?

there is usually a last wave of divergance at the bottom, where volume is low, and price hits new extremes. Im not sure which pictures you are talking about.

We had huge volume down to 511, and a bit more down to 465. I believe that is the best volume we will see, and that was the capitulation.

A little incongruent b/c i was making a serious post, but I was also referring to the pictures of the girls and/or the duck buttoms.

Surely, I get a little nervous when I hear people suggesting that it has got to be like this b/c that is the usual pattern, but with such a manipulated market (which the BTC market seems to be), seems that any one or two fairy godmother whales can come into the mix and mess up the pattern... so even though people think that we are needing to test or retest the $436 bottom, we may never return to $436 in spite of maybe the lack of volume or whatever b/c we have some fairy godmother whales coming in and then we are floating in the $500s and then maybe $600s and then maybe other whales start to say, "oh shit, i better get in"  ... so then the regular pattern is messed up.....

So I suppose we could be talking about patterns, absent fairy godmother whales, b/c the fairy godmother whales are going to mess up any kind of pattern that may be the usual... .... but bitcoin seems to NOT be the usual b/c it does seem to be fairly easy to manipulate with just a few million dollars....... I recognize that manipulation also depends upon volume.. so seems to be easier to manipulate during times when there is less volume.... but the attempts to manipulate may draw other whales if the manipulator(s) is(are) NOT subtle about it.

[JayJuanGee]

Somebody wake up China, its getting late here and I want to be around for liftoff.

http://www.timeanddate.com/worldclock/sunearth.html

wakey wakey rise and shine!

the chinese are just eating some chiwawa for breakfast and then they will read in the paper that the ban was fake and they will buy 

why do you think the ban is fake?

.... I never said I think it's fake, I dont know.

but there is now a rumour out that it's fake from a 'reputable' news agency.

Wait so this is now the rumor about a rumor?

WTF? this is the speculation thread... we trade on rumors... and trading on rumors of rumors is even MOAR better!!!!!!

[CoinDox]

WTF? this is the speculation thread... we trade on rumors... and trading on rumors of rumors is even MOAR better!!!!!!

Margin ALL the rumors!

[chessnut]

So I suppose we could be talking about patterns, absent fairy godmother whales, b/c the fairy godmother whales are going to mess up any kind of pattern that may be the usual... .... but bitcoin seems to NOT be the usual b/c it does seem to be fairly easy to manipulate with just a few million dollars....... I recognize that manipulation also depends upon volume.. so seems to be easier to manipulate during times when there is less volume.... but the attempts to manipulate may draw other whales if the manipulator(s) is(are) NOT subtle about it.

you are thinking that whales are selling to drop the price so they can buy?

that is taking a huge gamble where already many longs have been squeezed, and selling is something nobody wants to do right now, especially whales.

the smart money is off the exchanges buying bitcoins from local bitcoins and such.

there are mostly smaller players left on these exchanges, and they are not worth the effort and risk for the whales to try and fool.

[JayJuanGee]

I agree that sell volume was not as strong on the last push down, but buy volume was enemic.

I guess you think the worst is past us. No more issues from here. $436 is the new perma-low.

buy volume = sell volume, not so?

everyone seems to think the bottom will be much lower, so I am assured that it will not be much lower. the amount of people who are ready on the trigger to close their shorts and fill their bags with bitcoin on leverage at sub 400 is massive.

WE are gonna see sub $400......?

OM f'ng G  !!!!!

I hope NOT... at this point I would NOT be surprised by anything, but i am thinking outside chance we may get to at little below $430 .. and then we are going to head for our upward trajectory into the $500s this week, $600s by the weekend and $700 by the end of April, maybe even $800 by the end of April..... Of course, continued and ongoing speculation that is based on NOT much more than overall sense of a need for an uptrend and that we are continuing to get increased rather than decreased adoption....

NOW.. if the china ban rumor ends up being true.. then this could put a cog in my speculation..  At this point, I am "speculating" that the chances for the china rumor to be true is fairly unlikely... maybe less than 5% chance that material aspect of it is true.

[chessnut]

If we can break the 475 lvl approximately this exponential slide will be broken, and that will likely stall this very weak drop.

[chessnut]

NOW.. if the china ban rumor ends up being true.. then this could put a cog in my speculation..  At this point, I am "speculating" that the chances for the china rumor to be true is fairly unlikely... maybe less than 5% chance that material aspect of it is true.

I think a lot of people have forgoten the game plan.

ever have a vision in the market, only to see it happen before your eyes, yet somehow you impaled yourself on the market like a ship on a rock?

of coarse this is 'serious', as in high risk, but just like everything else bad that has happened to bitcoin, it will probably be forgotten within a week, if not sooner.

if you want to get ahead, you need to stick your neck out.

I am betting that the china news will be inaccurate, or be fake, and the reaction will be huge.

[tvbcof]

WE are gonna see sub $400......?

OM f'ng G  !!!!!

I hope NOT... at this point I would NOT be surprised by anything, but i am thinking outside chance...

There are only two times that the price ever meant anything to me.  Namely, when I bought and when I sold.  Between those two it makes zero difference whether the price dipped to near zero or when to to some ungodly high value.  Zero.

I got myself into this mode of thinking from a nearly a decade of dicking around with precious metals before I ever heard of Bitcoin.  It served me well.

[JayJuanGee]

So I suppose we could be talking about patterns, absent fairy godmother whales, b/c the fairy godmother whales are going to mess up any kind of pattern that may be the usual... .... but bitcoin seems to NOT be the usual b/c it does seem to be fairly easy to manipulate with just a few million dollars....... I recognize that manipulation also depends upon volume.. so seems to be easier to manipulate during times when there is less volume.... but the attempts to manipulate may draw other whales if the manipulator(s) is(are) NOT subtle about it.

you are thinking that whales are selling to drop the price so they can buy?

that is taking a huge gamble where already many longs have been squeezed, and selling is something nobody wants to do right now, especially whales.

the smart money is off the exchanges buying bitcoins from local bitcoins and such.

there are mostly smaller players left on these exchanges, and they are not worth the effort and risk for the whales to try and fool.

YOU may be correct about the dynamics that you describe, and I may be speculating beyond any reasonable semblance of knowledge that I have about how BTC price is being affected by trade; however, whether we like it or NOT, it seems to me that BTC prices are affected by exchange activities.  It also seems to me that there may have been quite a bit of removal of money and BTC from exchanges b/c of the GOX collapse issue.  Therefore, if there is less money on the exchanges, it takes less money to manipulate the BTC prices on exchanges and whales may want to engage in tactics to NOT show that they are manipulating BTC prices.. but still seems to me that there is a very, very, very large incentive to manipulate for some institutional investors, wealthy individuals (and even governments).

If there are invisible walls that do NOT let the prices go up.. then it may NOT cost very much to keep up those invisible walls.

Accordingly, maybe it is the paranoia in me, but I believe manipulation is taking place on exchanges, even though I may NOT be able to clearly articulate the mechanics of how it is done.. or how much profits and or losses take place through such manipulations.....

For example, if an institutional investor can manipulate prices, and it costs that institutional investor, let's say for argument sake 1 million to manipulate BTC prices downward.. but the institutional investor is able to acquire, 20,000 BTC for average of $500 per BTC rather than average of $650, then that institutional investor has just saved $2 million.  $3million saved from purchase of coins at lower price at $1million cost to manipulate the market downward = $2 million profits overall.    Surely the numbers work out differently with different quantities of BTC purchases.  If an institutional investor wants to acquire 200,000 BTC, then multiply that by 10, and you get $30million savings and the institutional investor may be willing to take large losses on exchanges to keep the prices down and to save and to get 200,000 BTC at $500 average rather than $650 average. 

In this regard, if, as you suggest, smart money is coming into BTC sphere through these various outside channels, they are likely using the exchange price to figure out how much they are going to be paying per BTC, no?  So, even if they are NOT making their big purchases through the exchange directly, they are figuring out the price they will pay, based on some agreed to average which likely a reflection of the exchange prices.

[JorgeStolfi]

If you haven't seen it already, Bobby Lee discussing fake trade data:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2M12zzwNkCo&t=12m35s

Yeah, sure.  Amazing what some fake volume can do to the price, neh? 

Mr. Lee of course needs to disqualify the other exchanges because BTC-China shrunk to near nothing when it switched to vouchers, and did not recover even after they reinstated bank deposit/withdrawals.

I would like to see the evidence for that "10 to 20 times" multiplication of volume.  Of course, without trading fees there will be many strange behaviors by robots that one will not see in the "greedy" exchanges.  By coincidence, "10 to 20 times" is about the ratio of volumes between Huobi or OKCoin and BTC-China.  Even if only  50% of the volume at the other Chinese exchanges were real, BTC-China would still be insignificant in the Chinese market.

On the other hand, on Jan/30 BTC-China reported  41,000 BTC of trade in less than 3 hours, due to a runaway robot, at a time when their daily volume was around 5,000 BTC.  They did not remove that fake volume from the chart API; as a result, they were listed as the largest exchange in the world by sites like bitcoincharts  (which to this day does not carry any other Chinese exchanges).

After interviewing the CEOs of Huobi and OKCoin, Coindesk reluctantly admitted that China may account for 60% of all trade volume in the world.  That may have been right when MtGOX was active, and if one counted only those two exchanges in China.  If the PBoC rumor is false, perhaps Coindesk will one day update that number to the factual 90-95%... (If the PBoC rumor is true, it may become 0%, of course.)

As for the "phantom walls", I have seen many complaints here about such things occurring on the Western exchanges.  They can be set up and taken down by trading robots; they may be sleazy tricks to manipulate the price, but why blame them on the exchanges?

For all I know, the mainland Chinese exchanges were responsible for the October-November price rally, which brought in all the venture capital etc.  The least that bitcoiners could do in retribution is to admit that they exist...

[JayJuanGee]

...then we are going to head for our upward trajectory into the $500s this week, $600s by the weekend and $700 by the end of April, maybe even $800 by the end of April..... Of course, continued and ongoing speculation that is based on NOT much more than overall sense of a need for an uptrend and that we are continuing to get increased rather than decreased adoption....

I mean this in the most sincere way, take the money you are "speculating" with and buy yourself something you enjoy, or go on a trip.

Excuse me about your supposed sincerity.. what the fuck are you talking about?    You are talking about a different category of spending.

People engage in various kinds of investments and speculations in order to be able to live well in the future and to have financial security and various kinds of things like that...  sometimes the bets pay off and sometimes they do NOT ..  whether people invest in real estate, business ventures, the stock market, fiat currency, gold or bitcoin, we are speculating as a vehicle.. to later be able to later spend.. some people hedge and diversify and others invest balls to the walls.

When you are talking about consumption, you are referring to a different category of spending, and to me it sounds as if you are provoking incitement, being argumentative and possibly patronizing us as if you supposedly know better about something...

Are you invested in BTC?  Are you engaging in thoughts about it, or you just come to this thread to say I told you so, during a downtrend?  In essence, your comment is NOT productive, contributory or even insightful.. it seems to be just a means to say I told you so.. so if you do NOT believe in BTC investing or making some kind of meaningful contribution, then go to engage in your own consumption activities and leave us in this thread to ponder BTC investment and/or speculation possibilities.

[tvbcof]

you are thinking that whales are selling to drop the price so they can buy?

that is taking a huge gamble where already many longs have been squeezed, and selling is something nobody wants to do right now, especially whales.

the smart money is off the exchanges buying bitcoins from local bitcoins and such.

there are mostly smaller players left on these exchanges, and they are not worth the effort and risk for the whales to try and fool.

I don't think 'the whales' have used exchanges for about 2 years now except in unusual cases.  There are much better venues for trading in quantity (so a little birdie told me.)  More than one or two whales makes a crowd on a public exchange.  The step on one another's toes generally, and eat one another's lunch when manipulation operations are attempted.

As for 'the smart money' dinking around with local bitcoins it seems laughable to me.  Possibly there are agents working generally on their behalf trying to scrape up BTC wherever they can find it but these would be autonomous actors who have nothing better to do than to run around to various Starbucks and stuff money into envelopes and such.

[chessnut]

As for 'the smart money' dinking around with local bitcoins it seems laughable to me.  Possibly there are agents working generally on their behalf trying to scrape up BTC wherever they can find it but these would be autonomous actors who have nothing better to do than to run around to various Starbucks and stuff money into envelopes and such.

would you laugh at the Winkelvii?

[gentlemand]

They got 100,000 coins off localbitcoins? If that is the case then I like their folksy style.

[chessnut]

...then we are going to head for our upward trajectory into the $500s this week, $600s by the weekend and $700 by the end of April, maybe even $800 by the end of April..... Of course, continued and ongoing speculation that is based on NOT much more than overall sense of a need for an uptrend and that we are continuing to get increased rather than decreased adoption....

I mean this in the most sincere way, take the money you are "speculating" with and buy yourself something you enjoy, or go on a trip.

dude look at the price action.

by a fair chance, this guy might be picking an absolute bottom, and you would advise him to spend his capital on holiday.

[JayJuanGee]

WE are gonna see sub $400......?

OM f'ng G  !!!!!

I hope NOT... at this point I would NOT be surprised by anything, but i am thinking outside chance...

There are only two times that the price ever meant anything to me.  Namely, when I bought and when I sold.  Between those two it makes zero difference whether the price dipped to near zero or when to to some ungodly high value.  Zero.

I got myself into this mode of thinking from a nearly a decade of dicking around with precious metals before I ever heard of Bitcoin.  It served me well.

I was exaggerating a bit, as you may have been able to tell. 

I agree with your overall sentiment.. you are correct; however, each of us get into an investment at a different stage, and based on such, we may engage in slightly different behaviors and investment strategies.

 I happened to have gotten into BTC at $1200, so I have been constantly buying to bring down my average BTC buy in price (currently I am at about $662) and in order to hopefully someday get back into the black... so current BTC price trends remain somewhat worrisome to me, based on my starting point and ongoing working and monitoring of BTC prices to continue to buy on the dips and to be able to be in a position to be able to get to a position of being in the black and to be able to be comfortable that I could sell at any point and be profitable (NOT there yet and getting further from there when the price goes down to such extremes.. especially, if such considerable dips cause concerns about whether the price will ever return to a place that I would be in the black). 

Certainly, I do NOT plan to sell any of my BTC until some time far into the future (unless some emergency or something).. but I would feel much better, if I could bring down my average BTC price and to rest in a position of being in the black rather than resting in the red... if you know what I am talking about... and the lower the average BTC buy in price, the easier it is to get to and to stay in some place of comfort and near being in the black.

[surfer43]

CCMF!

End of weekend pump.  

[billyjoeallen]

http://orymh.bandcamp.com/track/the-bitcoin-rally-song

W00t! 

Bears are in retreat. We have an actual rally going on. now all we need is some volume to give this thing momentum.