Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Davyd05]

squeezing for all it's worth.... the question is...will i give up my stake in bitcoin?
Nope. it is worth so much more. I am the patient
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuLy9shJNYc
.

Buy on fear. Always. Bought as much as I could

So you've been buying non stop the last few months? How much did you lose?

its only temporarily at a loss .. unless you wuss out and realize the loss and sodl

There is no guarantee it will go back up again.

there is none but I highly doubt less people are going to find out about it than more at this point.

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[T.Stuart]

hundreds of thousands since the top. but I am 100% bitcoin for a long time. Since the beginning I am still up. Glad to see the point of entry is getting affordable lately for newcomers.

Does anyone else get the impression that overall, investors in Bitcoin put more into Bitcoin vs their entire portfolio than those invested elsewhere? Ie that the "all eggs in one basket" attitude is more prevalent in Bitcoin.

If so what effect does this have on price?

[JayJuanGee]

. Lots of money was lost there, putting people permanently out of the game. Gox was one of the major, if not the major propellant upwards. With that money out of the game and not supporting the high price anymore, the price is set to go a lot lower than 500.

Permanently out of the game means dead.  I don't think they died.
Gox victims have a lot of btc to buy if they hope to recover. 

Yeah, that's how people think..."hhmmm...I lost a load of money on BTC...I have no money left...I'd better work harder to buy MORE BTC".

C'mon...

Hey.... that is what i have been doing.. more or less...  It is called dollar cost averaging and I do NOT believe that i am crazy.. b/c it is an investment strategy.. have you heard of it?  It is a pretty solid investment strategy when predicting that an asset is going to go back up in value.  I began investing in BTC at $1200.  And, BTC prices have been declining ever since.  I have been buying BTC when the prices gets lower.

Yes, you are probably behaving rationally under your assumptions, to a high degree -- whether you are correct or incorrect about your price trajectory assumptions is another question.  But I think  creekbore's point remains:  Mass psychology is somewhat less rational, more brutish and reactive.  "Once burned, twice shy" is an apt aphorism describing his inferred assumptions about market behaviour.

Personally, I believe that you are giving Creekbore too much benefit of the doubt.   But to each his own....  To me, Creekbore seems to be engaging in broad generalizations that may have some truth to them, but largely he seems to be denigrating others for being stupider than he is. 

Damned with faint praise (I think).
Anyway, I don't claim to be smarter (or more stupid) than the next man.

But the fact is lots of people lost money (cash or coins) on Gox...the fallout from that has been huge not just in publicity but word of mouth also.  I'd suggest most of the money lost on Gox was not 'cultist coins' but Mr Average spending some investment money via what they'd read/seen in the media.  They've lost that money now and they won't be coming back for a long time I suspect.  Public confidence in a market/investment drops...it takes time to rebuild...time is the one thing 'new' BTCers don't have....everyone wants to double their money in a week.  Those who say through 2012 know different.

If you have a different hypothesis, I'd love to read it.

I am not denigrating those people (indeed I fully understand their attitude).  What I have trouble with is the idea they are going to rapidly reinvest in BTC (and lets recall most here castigated these people for using Gox in the first place).

I have NO meaningful assessment to broadly categorize conduct b/c I am of the sense that there is going to be considerable variance regarding how people behave and how much knowledge they have and whether they act on their knowledge.  Some people are really dumb and/or act on their emotions, and some people are lucky or unlucky.

 Many people chose NOT to invest in Gox after about mid-2013 b/c there seemed to be fishy practices at GOX, and others took their money out of GOX.. .and still others purposefully went to Gox for various reasons, including some who wanted to go and to get into GOX during the last week of its being opened for business b/c they though that it woudl be a great opportunity to pick up some BTC around $100.  As we found out in retrospect, those who either knowingly or unknowingly took risks with GOX are likely going to have lost a certain percentage (possibly) all of their GOX BTC portfolio.

NO matter what happens with GOX investors, there will be variation with what these many investors do in the future.  Some will jump back into BTC, and others will be scared off of BTC.  Probably you recognize some of this variance in how investors will respond... but you make your statements in such a way to fail to account for such variations... which end up coming across as denigrations on a broad level... which may have some truth to it, but does NOT apply to everyone in the category.. and may NOT even apply to many in the category b/c the category or the referent has been left vague.

[fotosonics]

This is just freaky.

Critical mass of FUD. Critical mass of weekend awareness levels. Critical mass of fear.

All that and more intersecting, as the clock runs out on Chinese reactions and volume.

Freaky, dark world it is now for bitcoin hodlers like myself. Slow, murky, foreboding descent.

[chessnut]

There is no guarantee it will go back up again.

You missed the news: when the descending triangle breaks the third ascending Elliot Wave confirming the exponential trend line corresponding to Mynott's adoption curve then all the institutional money (which has been placed off the exchanges in 'dark orders' with illuminati miners) will enter the market guaranteeing the price to climb to USD$100K.

Or something like that.

no, no, wrong creekbore.

see me after class.

[fonzie]

There is no guarantee it will go back up again.

You missed the news: when the descending triangle breaks the third ascending Elliot Wave confirming the exponential trend line corresponding to Mynott's adoption curve then all the institutional money (which has been placed off the exchanges in 'dark orders' with illuminati miners) will enter the market guaranteeing the price to climb to USD$100K.

Or something like that.

 

Billie Jean said after the second ellbow of the S-Curve adoption hits in  it will rush up to 80 000 000$/BTC almost within minutes. There will be no time left for panic buyin.!

[N12]

Who remembers?

[JayJuanGee]

Down we go everyone
Time to figure out how to buy at this low price

I am NOT sure whether I am trying to figure out how.. but instead when.  I would prefer to buy once at the lowest price... but If I were to know for sure that the price is going low by at lease $20 or $30, then I would sell and buy back.. but I am TOO chickenshit for that.  I will probably buy a little once the price goes below $470, if it does.. and if it goes below $450 buy again... I had been doubting that the price would go below $450, but NOW we are getting closer and closer to such... so the odds for such a downfall seem to be getting greater and greater

[fonzie]

I´m not sure if we can hold triple digits this year after all the money from Gox and China is gone
Still only 9 Mio bid depth left on Stamp. If chineses coins will hit the market say good night.
I´ll have to catch my plane so at least i say goodbye for today. See you soon @ 200$

[windjc]

Hidden buy order at 476 on Bitfinex.  Pretty big, its absorbed a pounding the last hour and is holding fast.

[JayJuanGee]

They officially denied a rumor a week earlier. I'm sure they think they have better things to do than deny every rumor that comes along. They had time to confirm on Frday also and they didn't do that.

Maybe but note that that this 'rumour' was in Chinese news, and also that rumour-spreading online is illegal in China. You wouldn't expect them to deny every online rumour by Tom Dick & Harry but when it's published in the news there is much more reason to consider making a statement, no?

I expect they will likely make a statement one way or the other this Monday or Tuesday. The market is down because of uncertainty. A confirmation may even paradoxically cause the market to go up once the uncertainty is removed. It took a while, but that's what happened when Silk Road got busted.

Just keep in mind that these rumors have been going around for four months. Gox rumors turned out to be true, so this might also. It's a real possibility, just less likely than the market has priced in, in my opinion.

I keep wondering about what incentive the chinese have to clarify this.. They really like the uncertainty and snatching up MOAR coins.. .. maybe the rumor will float for a week or two and as the 15th gets closer chinese officials may feel a need to clarify the situation at that point.. or a week or so before the 15th?

[KFR]

Who remembers?

Well the shuttle only gets us to LEO.

We need a bigger rocket to get to da moon.

[JayJuanGee]

A weekend dip to 480 by Saturday night, not even seriously testing $466 resistance. We are on the way back up. An official denial of the rumor by the PBoC (should that happen) should take us to $540 in the short run, close to $600 eventually provided no new disasters surface. 

I estimate this China ban is 90% priced in since rumors started four months ago, so even if it turns out to be true, the down side is much smaller than the potential upside if again it proves to be false. This is a good time to buy a small amount, IMHO.

Probability the story is fake or just plain wrong I estimate to be 51%, based on no confirmations yet by anybody, despite a market plunge and four days of looking.

Once again, I was too early. We were all expecting this test of support, so my gut was right and my second guess was wrong. There may even be a test of $400 support if $466 doesn't hold.

Now we get to see who's smarter than me and waited to buy.

So my finger has been on the buy trigger for about the last hour and a half while the price has been floating between $470 and 480.. but the price seems to be inching downward.. ... I am remaining a bit anxious and usually I can relax a bit.. once I have bought.. but according to you... maybe buy at $467 and then maybe again at $402.. if it gets there...

[fonzie]

Last post for today.

ANYONE REMEMBER THIS

It´s happenin!





PS: CHINA BANS BITCOIN!!!!!!!!

 

[ShroomsKit]

There is no guarantee it will go back up again.

You missed the news: when the descending triangle breaks the third ascending Elliot Wave confirming the exponential trend line corresponding to Mynott's adoption curve then all the institutional money (which has been placed off the exchanges in 'dark orders' with illuminati miners) will enter the market guaranteeing the price to climb to USD$100K.

Or something like that.

No clue how i missed that.

[JayJuanGee]

squeezing for all it's worth.... the question is...will i give up my stake in bitcoin?
Nope. it is worth so much more. I am the patient
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CuLy9shJNYc
.

Buy on fear. Always. Bought as much as I could

So you've been buying non stop the last few months? How much did you lose?

my strategy too.. has been buying BTC as the price goes down.. and hoping that I am buying at the lowest, but the price keeps going down..  been buying BTC since late November.  Have NOT lost anything yet, b/c my BTC portfolio is increasing...   How about you shroomskit?  what is your stake?  what are you invested in?  you making any money or taking any risks?  you making any bets?

[T.Stuart]

Last post for today.

ANYONE REMEMBER THIS

It´s happenin!


PS: CHINA BANS BITCOIN!!!!!!!!

 

Thought you had a plane to catch?

[ShroomsKit]

A weekend dip to 480 by Saturday night, not even seriously testing $466 resistance. We are on the way back up. An official denial of the rumor by the PBoC (should that happen) should take us to $540 in the short run, close to $600 eventually provided no new disasters surface.  

I estimate this China ban is 90% priced in since rumors started four months ago, so even if it turns out to be true, the down side is much smaller than the potential upside if again it proves to be false. This is a good time to buy a small amount, IMHO.

Probability the story is fake or just plain wrong I estimate to be 51%, based on no confirmations yet by anybody, despite a market plunge and four days of looking.

Once again, I was too early. We were all expecting this test of support, so my gut was right and my second guess was wrong. There may even be a test of $400 support if $466 doesn't hold.

Now we get to see who's smarter than me and waited to buy.

So my finger has been on the buy trigger for about the last hour and a half while the price has been floating between $470 and 480.. but the price seems to be inching downward.. ... I am remaining a bit anxious and usually I can relax a bit.. once I have bought.. but according to you... maybe buy at $467 and then maybe again at $402.. if it gets there...

I don't know shit but my feeling says we're going down WAY more. Simply because there is no reason to stop going down. Whales push us down, sheep panic sell, bears cry about cheap coins. Whatever the price is it must always go lower because lower is cheaper.

[magicmexican]

dat volume

[chessnut]

dat volume

yeah I think this selling is getting absorbed pretty smartly.