cAPSLOCK
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Merit: 5142
Whimsical Pants
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March 31, 2014, 01:13:50 AM |
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Good morning China...
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ChrisML
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March 31, 2014, 01:18:55 AM |
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It's only $7,- of price pump. Lets just wait till it surpasses that magical $666 line.  |
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tvbcof
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Activity: 4606
Merit: 1276
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March 31, 2014, 01:19:38 AM |
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I agree with your overall sentiment.. you are correct; however, each of us get into an investment at a different stage, and based on such, we may engage in slightly different behaviors and investment strategies.
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True about the different times. I did pay attention to the price fairly keenly when I was in buying mode. I only started buying at $16-ish because I was doing something else when the 2011 spike happened and the price had dropped from around the $20 level by the time I got exchanges figured out and funded. So, I was kind of lucky in a way. I got a little frustrated and decided to put more in fiat terms at risk the deeper I got into the red. I had one more 'double down' planned if we got well below $2.00 but we never did. I told myself that the $2.00 was a 'second chance' for us newbies. In the end it looks like I was right though it was more incidental than a result of some special insight. From the get-go I planed my exit to be magnitude based rather than time based. Get back my initial outlay if/when I hit 10x and get back some fun-money if/when 100x. We did hit those targets which was fun so I cannot say I didn't spend the years watching the charts. Again, though, I was careful to never get into a situation where I was forced into taking a particular action so I was more relaxed than I might have been. |
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PoolMinor
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Activity: 1843
Merit: 1338
XXXVII Fnord is toast without bread
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March 31, 2014, 01:20:07 AM |
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More info from the above link later in the video, the real "scoop" on China's legalities regarding Bitcoin. http://youtu.be/2M12zzwNkCo?t=38m14s |
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JayJuanGee
Legendary
 Online
Activity: 3766
Merit: 10451
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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March 31, 2014, 01:21:29 AM |
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you are thinking that whales are selling to drop the price so they can buy?
that is taking a huge gamble where already many longs have been squeezed, and selling is something nobody wants to do right now, especially whales.
the smart money is off the exchanges buying bitcoins from local bitcoins and such.
there are mostly smaller players left on these exchanges, and they are not worth the effort and risk for the whales to try and fool.
I don't think 'the whales' have used exchanges for about 2 years now except in unusual cases. There are much better venues for trading in quantity (so a little birdie told me.) More than one or two whales makes a crowd on a public exchange. The step on one another's toes generally, and eat one another's lunch when manipulation operations are attempted. As for 'the smart money' dinking around with local bitcoins it seems laughable to me. Possibly there are agents working generally on their behalf trying to scrape up BTC wherever they can find it but these would be autonomous actors who have nothing better to do than to run around to various Starbucks and stuff money into envelopes and such. I'm all fine and dandy with your assessment that whales are NOT being obvious on exchanges.. ... however, if you read my post above, I am suggesting that prices are gotten from exchanges.. so exchange prices are manipulated... It may NOT be for the purposes of directly obtaining coins, but it does seem to be for the purpose of manipulating price.
Are any of you suggesting that BTC price comes from anywhere other than from the exchanges? |
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JayJuanGee
Legendary
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Activity: 3766
Merit: 10451
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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March 31, 2014, 01:24:16 AM |
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...then we are going to head for our upward trajectory into the $500s this week, $600s by the weekend and $700 by the end of April, maybe even $800 by the end of April..... Of course, continued and ongoing speculation that is based on NOT much more than overall sense of a need for an uptrend and that we are continuing to get increased rather than decreased adoption....
I mean this in the most sincere way, take the money you are "speculating" with and buy yourself something you enjoy, or go on a trip. dude look at the price action. by a fair chance, this guy might be picking an absolute bottom, and you would advise him to spend his capital on holiday. I think CoinDox thought that he was registering for the skiing in the Alps forum, and accidentally registered here. So maybe we can excuse him for his being in the wrong forum?  |
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KFR
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March 31, 2014, 01:31:38 AM |
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CCMF. Party insiders at Weigo-Xiuxiu Nau have confirmed that they are expecting to see a huge upswing in both price and volume this week. Once again thanks to Proudhon for the tip.  |
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serpiente12
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Activity: 85
Merit: 10
If you dont like something change it
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March 31, 2014, 01:34:41 AM |
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CCMF. Party insiders at Weigo-Xiuxiu Nau have confirmed that they are expecting to see a huge upswing in both price and volume this week. Once again thanks to Proudhon for the tip. Probably not , gonna take a good hit tomorrow and gonna be unstable to the 14-15 of april when the PBOC closes shop on btc accounts, then its gonna start to leve off properly |
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serpiente12
Member
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Activity: 85
Merit: 10
If you dont like something change it
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March 31, 2014, 01:41:10 AM |
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...then we are going to head for our upward trajectory into the $500s this week, $600s by the weekend and $700 by the end of April, maybe even $800 by the end of April..... Of course, continued and ongoing speculation that is based on NOT much more than overall sense of a need for an uptrend and that we are continuing to get increased rather than decreased adoption....
I mean this in the most sincere way, take the money you are "speculating" with and buy yourself something you enjoy, or go on a trip. dude look at the price action. by a fair chance, this guy might be picking an absolute bottom, and you would advise him to spend his capital on holiday. haha LOL I think CoinDox thought that he was registering for the skiing in the Alps forum, and accidentally registered here. So maybe we can excuse him for his being in the wrong forum? |
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tvbcof
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Activity: 4606
Merit: 1276
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March 31, 2014, 01:44:42 AM |
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I'm all fine and dandy with your assessment that whales are NOT being obvious on exchanges.. ... however, if you read my post above, I am suggesting that prices are gotten from exchanges.. so exchange prices are manipulated... It may NOT be for the purposes of directly obtaining coins, but it does seem to be for the purpose of manipulating price.
Are any of you suggesting that BTC price comes from anywhere other than from the exchanges?
The spot price comes from the markets in total through various types of arbitrage. People who have visibility into other more opaque markets probably do dabble on the exchanges for fun and profit so the exchanges are an actual reflection of the total market. But they have enough lag such those who have only public exposure (a majority of participants by body count) end up getting skewered over time. When the tide is rising it is not noticed so much. When the tide is going out is when the impacts are felt most significantly. |
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JayJuanGee
Legendary
Online
Activity: 3766
Merit: 10451
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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March 31, 2014, 01:46:31 AM |
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I agree with your overall sentiment.. you are correct; however, each of us get into an investment at a different stage, and based on such, we may engage in slightly different behaviors and investment strategies.
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True about the different times. I did pay attention to the price fairly keenly when I was in buying mode. I only started buying at $16-ish because I was doing something else when the 2011 spike happened and the price had dropped from around the $20 level by the time I got exchanges figured out and funded. So, I was kind of lucky in a way. I got a little frustrated and decided to put more in fiat terms at risk the deeper I got into the red. I had one more 'double down' planned if we got well below $2.00 but we never did. I told myself that the $2.00 was a 'second chance' for us newbies. In the end it looks like I was right though it was more incidental than a result of some special insight. From the get-go I planed my exit to be magnitude based rather than time based. Get back my initial outlay if/when I hit 10x and get back some fun-money if/when 100x. We did hit those targets which was fun so I cannot say I didn't spend the years watching the charts. Again, though, I was careful to never get into a situation where I was forced into taking a particular action so I was more relaxed than I might have been. Yes... Certainly, neither of us seem to be asserting any omniscience, here. However, I think that your description plays into my theory quite a bit, that an investor can rest much more assured when s/he is in the black rather than being in the red. The more in the black or the less in the red, the more assured s/he can rest. Since BTC prices have been downtrending since I began to invest, I had been engaging in a buing strategy that continuously caused me to have to monitor BTC prices b/c I have been continuing to attempt to buy during dips.. and then BTC prices get lower and get lower.. (and I make some mistakes, here and there) and anyhow, I started with $1,500 invested at $1,200 per BTC (which was only 1.24BTC). My anticipated BTC investment budget was to invest $30k between late November 2013 and June-ish 2014 and to attempt to study the matter as I was engaging in a hybrid form of dollar cost averaging. I could have invested most of that 30K on the front end in 11/13, but I already realized that BTC had been on an amazing bull run.. and front loading was likely NOT going to be a good idea.. but I wanted to get some skin in the BTC game and to get started in case the prices went up even more (which was and remains possible that prices could go up rather than down - even at ATH prices). Anyhow, currently, I already have about 30K invested in at an average of $662.. which is about 45.5 BTC.... My next buy point was going to be $430-ish.. if BTC prices would have gone there within the next 24 hours.. but maybe we are NOT going to go there any time soon... who knows?... Anyhow, in the last few hours my amount in the red went from negative 35% to negative 28%... and if we had gone to below $400, my BTC portfolio would have been about negative 41% (absent additional buys). For me, it feels much better to be at negative 28% (even without having more BTC in the portfolio) than it would be to be at negative 41% with some additional BTC in my portfolio. That is just my current thinking b/c I am about two months ahead of my anticipated investment amounts. I will feel even better as the price increases or my average buy-in price comes down. I may NOT buy as much absent dips, and when there are dips, I feel that i need to buy, especially when my portfolio is lingering in the red. |
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_javi_
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March 31, 2014, 01:49:23 AM |
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i see chineses buying like mad.. check Huobi  getting ready for another dumpity dump?? |
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chessnut
Legendary
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Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
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March 31, 2014, 01:52:39 AM |
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this is the best day Ive had for ages, the rally is moving effortlessly, like a knife through butter. I think ol' Bitcoin is back!
and big orders chasing the price action! it's on baby!
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JorgeStolfi
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March 31, 2014, 01:52:48 AM |
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Daily volumes of BTC trade to/from USD and other national currencies (in kBTC):
! Sun ! Mon ! Tue ! Wed ! Thu ! Fri ! Sat ! Sun !
EXCHANGE ! 03/23 ! 03/24 ! 03/25 ! 03/26 ! 03/27 ! 03/28 ! 03/29 ! 03/30 ! Currencies considered
BSTP Bitstamp | 6.10 | 13.67 | 8.11 | 10.31 | 49.21 | 34.96 | 7.45 | 31.44 | USD(w,c)
BFNX Bitfinex | 4.83 | 9.28 | 4.90 | 7.65 | 41.02 | 35.99 | 4.64 | 26.15 | USD(w,c)
BTCE BTC-e | 2.43 | 6.35 | 4.99 | 3.49 | 20.81 | 17.79 | 4.03 | 23.58 | EUR,RUB,USD(w)(1)
LAKE LakeBTC | 4.01 | 3.48 | 3.79 | 3.61 | 3.62 | 3.84 | 4.16 | 3.82 | USD(c)
SUBSUBTOTAL | 17.37 | 32.78 | 21.79 | 25.06 | 114.66 | 92.58 | 20.28 | 84.99 |
KRAK Kraken | 0.29 | 0.88 | 0.70 | 0.80 | 2.23 | 1.27 | 0.45 | 1.41 | EUR,USD(c)(2)
BTDE Bitcoin.DE | 0.18 | 0.48 | 0.28 | 0.32 | 0.98 | 0.48 | 0.23 | 0.84 | EUR(w,c)
HITB HitBTC | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.38 | 0.39 | 0.11 | 0.72 | USD(c)
CVIX CaVirtEx | 0.08 | 0.34 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.63 | 0.35 | 0.07 | 0.59 | CAD(w,c)
BCUX Bitcurex | 0.08 | 0.23 | 0.12 | 0.20 | 0.64 | 0.50 | 0.14 | 0.58 | EUR,PLN(c)
LBTC LocalBitcoins | 0.37 | 1.04 | 1.14 | 0.99 | 1.10 | 1.13 | 0.68 | 0.51 | (c)(3)
ANEX AsiaNexgen | 0.52 | 0.78 | 0.44 | 0.82 | 1.01 | 0.92 | 0.50 | 0.28 | HKD(c)
BCTR BitcoinCentral | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.31 | 0.15 | 0.07 | 0.22 | EUR(c)
CPBX CampBX | 0.05 | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.23 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 0.16 | USD(w,c)
JUST Justcoin | 0.01 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 0.03 | 0.10 | EUR,NOK,USD(c)
BMKS BTCMarkets | . | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.13 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.06 | AUD(c)
BMPL BitMarket.PL | . | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.06 | PLN(c)
MCBT MercadoBitcoin | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.18 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.04 | BRL(c)
BT2C Bit2C | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.03 | ILS(c)
BTNZ BitNZ | . | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.03 | NZD(c)
BITX BitX | . | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | . | 0.02 | ZAR(c)
FYSE FYB-SE | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | SEK(c)
FYSG FYB-SG | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | . | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.02 | SGD(c)
ROCK RockTrading | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | EUR(c)
BCID Bitcoin.CO.ID | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | IDR(c)
SUBSUBTOTAL | 1.72 | 4.25 | 3.19 | 3.69 | 8.32 | 5.76 | 2.48 | 5.72 |
SUBTOTAL | 19.09 | 37.03 | 24.98 | 28.75 | 122.98 | 98.34 | 22.76 | 90.71 |
HUBI Huobi | 18.00 | 73.60 | 56.50 | 91.50 | 213.00 | 185.00 | 33.10 | 92.10 | CNY(w)
OKCO OKCoin | 35.90 | 82.30 | 92.60 | 104.00 | 283.00 | 251.00 | 69.60 | 86.80 | CNY(w)
BTCC BTC-China | 1.57 | 4.84 | 2.28 | 2.90 | 13.64 | 8.88 | 1.51 | 4.91 | CNY(w,c)
BTER Bter | 0.28 | 0.47 | 0.32 | 0.39 | 0.77 | 0.47 | 0.33 | 0.39 | CNY(w)
SUBTOTAL | 55.75 | 161.21 | 151.70 | 198.79 | 510.41 | 445.35 | 104.54 | 184.20 |
TOTAL | 74.84 | 198.24 | 176.68 | 227.54 | 633.39 | 543.69 | 127.30 | 274.91 |
NOTES: (1) The USD volumes for BTC-e obtained from Bitcoincharts are consistently smaller than those obtained through Bitcoinwisdom. Using the latter. (2) Bitcoinwisdom lists only BTC/EUR for Kraken, not BTC/USD. (3) Bitcoincharts lists Localbitcoins with many currencies, most of which appear to have negligible volume. This line counts only AUD,BRL,CAD,CHF,CZK,DKK,EUR,GBP,RUB,SEK,THB,USD. All numbers were collected by hand or copy-paste from the sites http://bitcoinwisdom.com (w) and http://bitcoincharts.com (c). Beware of possible errors. For each exchange, the numbers include only the trade volume to/from the currencies listed in the rightmost column. Trade between BTC and other cryptocoins, such as LiteCoin, is NOT included. Dates on the header line are UTC. Specifically, "01/15" means "from 01/15 00:00:00 UTC to 01/15 23:59:59 UTC". (Beware that the same period may span part of day 01/14 or part of day 01/16 in your local time zone.) WARNING: There are at least five additional large exchanges in China that are not on this table because they are not covered by Bitcoinwisdom: FxBTC, ChBTC, BTCTrade, BTC100, and BTC38. Together they may have as much volume as Huobi or OKCoin. |
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chessnut
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Activity: 924
Merit: 1001
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March 31, 2014, 01:55:19 AM |
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Now is a good time to go onto Bitbet and bet 'No' the price of BTC will not go under $400 before June. good dds too!
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JayJuanGee
Legendary
Online
Activity: 3766
Merit: 10451
Self-Custody is a right. Say no to"Non-custodial"
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March 31, 2014, 01:55:56 AM |
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I'm all fine and dandy with your assessment that whales are NOT being obvious on exchanges.. ... however, if you read my post above, I am suggesting that prices are gotten from exchanges.. so exchange prices are manipulated... It may NOT be for the purposes of directly obtaining coins, but it does seem to be for the purpose of manipulating price.
Are any of you suggesting that BTC price comes from anywhere other than from the exchanges?
The spot price comes from the markets in total through various types of arbitrage. People who have visibility into other more opaque markets probably do dabble on the exchanges for fun and profit so the exchanges are an actual reflection of the total market. But they have enough lag such those who have only public exposure (a majority of participants by body count) end up getting skewered over time. When the tide is rising it is not noticed so much. When the tide is going out is when the impacts are felt most significantly. In my post above here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg5993520#msg5993520I am describing why I think that exchanges set prices and that whale manipulation of prices is taking place on exchanges and that there is an incentive to manipulate prices - even if the big purchases are taking place outside of exchanges. |
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MinermanNC
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Activity: 2198
Merit: 1000
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March 31, 2014, 01:57:23 AM |
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Mini rally anyone! |
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fotosonics
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March 31, 2014, 02:07:46 AM |
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It's only $7,- of price pump. Lets just wait till it surpasses that magical $666 line. Yes. Tired of all the hasty abuse of train images. People do that each time there's a small jump, ignorant that each time they're making noise it's for a much lower price than the last time they made noise. And no sooner does someone yell "CCMF" than the price begins to dive again, deeper than the previous low. Kids these days. |
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tvbcof
Legendary
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Activity: 4606
Merit: 1276
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March 31, 2014, 02:08:04 AM |
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I'm all fine and dandy with your assessment that whales are NOT being obvious on exchanges.. ... however, if you read my post above, I am suggesting that prices are gotten from exchanges.. so exchange prices are manipulated... It may NOT be for the purposes of directly obtaining coins, but it does seem to be for the purpose of manipulating price.
Are any of you suggesting that BTC price comes from anywhere other than from the exchanges?
The spot price comes from the markets in total through various types of arbitrage. People who have visibility into other more opaque markets probably do dabble on the exchanges for fun and profit so the exchanges are an actual reflection of the total market. But they have enough lag such those who have only public exposure (a majority of participants by body count) end up getting skewered over time. When the tide is rising it is not noticed so much. When the tide is going out is when the impacts are felt most significantly. In my post above here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg5993520#msg5993520I am describing why I think that exchanges set prices and that whale manipulation of prices is taking place on exchanges and that there is an incentive to manipulate prices - even if the big purchases are taking place outside of exchanges. Oh, I've always taken it as a near certainty that the exchanges themselves are completely corrupt in terms of spot price. I also expect that they do favors for their insider friends. Some exchanges may not, but I assume it anyway. Bitcoin exchanges really are the 'free market' in that they are unencumbered by any form of regulation or ethics. Most of them are (demonstrably) just waiting for the best opportunity to have a 'hack' and walk away with people's money. I had a relatively high degree of confidence in Tradehill-I back in the day, but I still bent over backwards to limit my exposure. If you are good at reading the tea leaves, this innate corruption in the Bitcoin ecosystem (Libertarian utopia that it is) might be able to be read and played upon. In a similar way I figure there is probably some truth to the assertions that the gold and silver markets are artificially depressed with paper instruments. That's awesome as long as I'm a buyer (only physical in my case) and I've yet to need to switch sides and need to sell. |
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