Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[chessnut]

for the last 3 days, the market has been pressured upwards in risk off situations.

over the weekend, when there was no chance of a PBOC announcement, the market was stable and lifted. furthermore, news of law enforcement on chinese exchanges failed to carve new lows on western based exchanges.

- there is lots of buying pressure.

today the market is nervously creeping up despite yesterdays fiasco.

If by the end of the chinese day there are no more announcements, the chances grow slimmer that there will be one before April 15th.

This said, I believe we should expect a rally in the next 48 hours, perhaps entering the low 500s.

[JayJuanGee]

I gauge each individual by what they post, not what someone else posts about them (although I do use what someone says about others to gauge their own character).

Just what I need, another person judging me on shallow evidence.

creekbore has been stalking me for a while, and he's made this personal. If I lose my patience the last thing Im worried about is looking like a jerk.

trolls gonna troll, we're all just speculating on an internet forum when it comes down to it.

And a quasi-anonymous forum at that.

[JayJuanGee]

Bitcoinity has Gonzo as the background.

IIRC it's Beaker.

I think you are right.  It's been a long time since I saw the Muppets..

+2 beaker

2800 on huobi, the first pump begins soon? debating.. it should imo but there is still a bit of uncertainty out there. Plus all the shorts that would have to close eventually

YEAH>>>> maybe a rally... but it seems really unlikely that we are going to get to any kind of $540-ish type numbers... and I think that we are getting pretty close to 48 hours for the poll... so it turns out the poll is NOT true about the $540 b/c we did NOT even break $490, to my recollection... so we have been lingering in this sub-$490 limbo land for a couple of days... with lows into the $430s... who would have thunk?

[ShroomsKit]

Some bullish thoughts:
If we enter the double digits range it´s probaby to late to sell, i can ´t see us stayin in single digits/lower double digits for more than a few days.
But hey after all, it´s the honey badger isn´t it?
 

Keep talking, I'd like to get a few more at cheaper prices

Who the fuck knows what is going to happen?  But I cannot see the BTC prices getting too much cheaper... unless there is some aazing new negative developments...

All it takes is a rumour on twitter or one fake article to drop another 100 bucks. But no amount of good news will make it go up. So guess which way we will be going.

[JorgeStolfi]

Chinese Slumber Method prediction for Tuesday April 1

Just to make a fool of myself:

Prediction valid for: Tuuesday 2014-04-01, 19:00--19:59 UTC (not before, not after)
Huobi's predicted price: 2759 CNY.
Bitstamp's predicted price: 455 USD.


Plot legend

The last Slumber Point was quite good (S = 0.0018, W = 0.936) but the previous one was very bad (S = 0.0140, W = 0.020).  Therefore the only reasonable trendline is the constant function, namely "the next Slumber Price will be the same as the last one".

The Bitstamp prediction, as usual, is the Huobi prediction divided by the currency conversion factor R, which was assumed to be 6.10 CNY/USD (it was 6.06, 6.02, 6.08 at the last three Slumber Times, skipping the Mar/30 one).

NOTE: Today is April Fools day.  Every day is Greater Fools day.

[David M]

You have got to check out Bitcoinity...

MtGox is back!  The "MtGox" market links take you here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QTXyXuqfBLA



Beaker going crazy...

[chessnut]

All it takes is a rumour on twitter or one fake article to drop another 100 bucks. But no amount of good news will make it go up. So guess which way we will be going.

the effect of news changes in cycles. the market is obviously more vulnerable to bad news when people are very bullish (long), but that time has passed because the panic selling has been exhausted.

yesterday chinese law was enforced on a chinese exchange, confirming the worst, but here we are, rallying, 466 and climbing.

I think you will see from now on, the good news will start to take a positive effect on the market.

[spooderman]

i expect one more flash crash down and then proper bull market back. bids in the 300s placed!

[DieJohnny]

All it takes is a rumour on twitter or one fake article to drop another 100 bucks. But no amount of good news will make it go up. So guess which way we will be going.

This basically sums up my sentiment. The general public has nothing but bitcoin bad taste in their mouth.

A lot of time has to pass for some amnesia to set in and start to bring in new blood.

While I do not equate bitcoin to a ponzi scheme in any technical way, I do think it likely follows typical trends for MLM and networking companies in general. You have waves of people that buy in, then periods of retraction until a new wave of buyers follows. I think we are in retraction now, eventually we will turn up again but not yet, we are still headed down.

The great difference between MLMs, ponzis, and bitcoin is that bitcoin is eternal and free flowing in its membership. If you lose your belief system, then you can get out at any time you want. Bitcoins will still be around in a year and in 10 years, they are not going to disappear (at least not all of them). We are seeing people lose faith and leave the blockchain, this will continue down, down, down, until the speculative opportunity is much higher than the risk of holding them. I pick the absolute bottom at around Gox's bottom. I am picking the bottom I will be able to identify and buy during a regular business day around 250.

[spooderman]

All it takes is a rumour on twitter or one fake article to drop another 100 bucks. But no amount of good news will make it go up. So guess which way we will be going.

the effect of news changes in cycles. the market is obviously more vulnerable to bad news when people are very bullish (long), but that time has passed because the panic selling has been exhausted.

yesterday chinese law was enforced on a chinese exchange, confirming the worst, but here we are, rallying, 466 and climbing.

I think you will see from now on, the good news will start to take a positive effect on the market.

would you mind telling me what the chinese law is now?

[TERA]

Nice little wall at 350-450 has formed. This might give us another 1-4 weeks before 400 is broken, and maybe even a bulltrap to 550 or so where the next shorting opportunity will be.

[chessnut]

would you mind telling me what the chinese law is now?

The regulation was passed three months ago..... ban on third party exchanges. traders will not be able to send yuan to exchanges in china. that is in effect a ban.

[aminorex]

would you mind telling me what the chinese law is now?

The regulation was passed three months ago..... ban on third party exchanges. traders will not be able to send yuan to exchanges in china. that is in effect a ban.

Not really.  Anyone (say with a few million in donations from clients of a state owned enterprise)  can buy bitcoin whenever they want.  They just have to pay cash.

[JorgeStolfi]

This Chinese thread seems to say that bank deposit (?) at OKCoin was still working today (Apr/01) around 09:00 local time.

[chessnut]

would you mind telling me what the chinese law is now?

The regulation was passed three months ago..... ban on third party exchanges. traders will not be able to send yuan to exchanges in china. that is in effect a ban.

Not really.  Anyone (say with a few million in donations from clients of a state owned enterprise)  can buy bitcoin whenever they want.  They just have to pay cash.

yes. good news.

[arepo]

...here we are, rallying, 466 and climbing.

this is consolidation, not a rally... you should take off those bull-colored glasses

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ShroomsKit]

Nice little wall at 350-450 has formed. This might give us another 1-4 weeks before 400 is broken, and maybe even a bulltrap to 550 or so where the next shorting opportunity will be.

Didn't you say you would stop posting once you got your cheap coins. Wasn't that around 600 or so? Considering how low we are i'm pretty sure you got all the cheap coins you could afford already. Right?

[seleme]

I feel some mini rally is coming unless we get some China bad news confirmation.

Sellers look bit exhausted and only that news could change the things.

[Walsoraj]

I feel some mini rally is coming unless we get some China bad news confirmation.

Sellers look bit exhausted and only that news could change the things.

Pre-confirmed.