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Question: May 31 Bitcoin Price
<$6,000 - 13 (10.7%)
$6,000-$6,500 - 1 (0.8%)
$6,500-$7,000 - 9 (7.4%)
$7,000-$7,500 - 7 (5.8%)
$7,500-$8,000 - 8 (6.6%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 5 (4.1%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 11 (9.1%)
$9,000-$9,500 - 10 (8.3%)
$9,500-$10,000 - 13 (10.7%)
$10,000-$10,500 - 14 (11.6%)
$10,500-$11,000 - 2 (1.7%)
$11,000-$11,500 - 4 (3.3%)
$11,500-$12,000 - 1 (0.8%)
$12,000+ - 23 (19%)
Total Voters: 121

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 20275946 times)
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billyjoeallen
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April 01, 2014, 08:55:43 AM

damn that was crazy. half of my standing short orders got hit. i was down at one point and thought the bulls had gotten one by me but now im up 4%.

I'm curious as to where you are going to close those shorts on the way down. This is what some people don't understand. Bears actually help to prevent crashes when they take their profits and close short positions. It's bulls with leverage getting margin calls that really make it tank.
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windjc
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April 01, 2014, 08:56:11 AM

So you are saying we are no longer in a bear market? Can I quote you on this?

yes, no longer in a bear market. I am not therefore saying we are in a bull market, because we need a higher low before we can say that. but according to that chart, we have a higher high, and that does not happen in a bear market.

So I guess all those higher lows we have had since 1163 were just mirages? Like the one that took us 710. That didn't happen, right?

If you want to argue like that, then 1200 never happened either, did it?

your chart says sideway for the next 3 days at least, and that a higher low means bull market.

sorry if you are short. there is nobody left to bail you out, not even fearful noobs.

My chart?
magicmexican
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April 01, 2014, 08:56:19 AM

BUY OR NOT BUY?HuhHuhHuhHuh   Grin Grin Grin Grin Grin



use this to help your decision.

thanks for the chart. have you noticed that the prior 3D candlestick high has been broken through like a knife through butter.

That is a higher high, watch out for the higher low, because technically this is no longer a down trend!

So you are saying we are no longer in a bear market? Can I quote you on this?

Kinda funny that he posted that chart implying its obviously wrong to buy, but to me it actually looks like a pretty good entry point
600watt
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April 01, 2014, 08:57:11 AM

i will never learn it.

when it was in 600 territory i considered selling* but didn´t, since i believed it will go up. when it came down to 435 i started to panic. i did not sell, but promised myself: next time it is 600 territory i will sell FOR SURE, because this 400 territory is a pain when you have no fiat to buy.

but when there is the smallest move upwards (like curently) all my desire to sell is gone. i just cannot do it. having sold and then see the price go up seems to be an even harder pain then panicing about total loss.



*when i talk about selling i mean 10 - 20 % of my stash
chessnut
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April 01, 2014, 08:57:19 AM





im in a good position, thats what Im in.
arepo
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April 01, 2014, 08:59:15 AM

So you are saying we are no longer in a bear market? Can I quote you on this?

yes, no longer in a bear market. I am not therefore saying we are in a bull market, because we need a higher low before we can say that. but according to that chart, we have a higher high, and that does not happen in a bear market.

do timescales mean nothing to you? we made a higher high on the 1-day scale. not saying that this bullish price action is not significant, but since we've been making lower highs for the past 4 months, i'm pretty sure your statement is premature.
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April 01, 2014, 08:59:24 AM

i will never learn it.

when it was in 600 territory i considered selling* but didn´t, since i believed it will go up. when it came down to 435 i started to panic. i did not sell, but promised myself: next time it is 600 territory i will sell FOR SURE, because this 400 territory is a pain when you have no fiat to buy.

but when there is the smallest move upwards (like curently) all my desire to sell is gone. i just cannot do it. having sold and then see the price go up seems to be an even harder pain then panicing about total loss.



*when i talk about selling i mean 10 - 20 % of my stash

Selling on the possible recovery is asking to get trapped, sell either when its really high and is for sure going to be a correction, or when there are fresh negative news and market is tanking way above previous bottoms
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1PwXK9TpmmaaqaZz2eqcLkPU2C1Fcva39G


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April 01, 2014, 09:00:43 AM


Explanation
windjc
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April 01, 2014, 09:02:11 AM

That is an ugly shooting star candle on the 4hr chart.
TERA
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April 01, 2014, 09:02:35 AM

damn that was crazy. half of my standing short orders got hit. i was down at one point and thought the bulls had gotten one by me but now im up 4%.

I'm curious as to where you are going to close those shorts on the way down. This is what some people don't understand. Bears actually help to prevent crashes when they take their profits and close short positions. It's bulls with leverage getting margin calls that really make it tank.
I already chickened out and closed at 490 to take the 4% profit that was on the table Sad . I will reopen new ones based on 15m, 1h, and 4h charts.
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April 01, 2014, 09:02:46 AM


do timescales mean nothing to you? we made a higher high on the 1-day scale. not saying that this bullish price action is not significant, but since we've been making lower highs for the past 4 months, i'm pretty sure your statement is premature.

If this wasnt playing out exactly to my expectations, I might agree with you. never mind the chart, its the sentiment and fundamentals that are crying out reversal right now.

and on a large time scale, we have been diverging for many days.

windjc
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April 01, 2014, 09:03:14 AM

People who sold at the bottom, when will you learn. Bears who sold at $450ish when will you buy back ?

So we've hit a bottom and now we are in a bull market again? $435 was the low that we will never see again?

438 actually.

Depends which market you look at.

You probably do not want to be quibbling over a few bucks when this baby blows out of the pennant to the upside, a couple of weeks early too ...

You are the one who is quibbling. Go look in the mirror. I'll keep an eye on the pennant.
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April 01, 2014, 09:03:57 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!
windjc
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April 01, 2014, 09:05:29 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

What was the gameplan? I missed it.
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April 01, 2014, 09:06:54 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

chessnut
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April 01, 2014, 09:07:14 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

What was the gameplan? I missed it.

buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance.
windjc
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April 01, 2014, 09:07:54 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

What was the gameplan? I missed it.

buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance.

There are some things different about this wedge.
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April 01, 2014, 09:08:40 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

What was the gameplan? I missed it.

buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance.

There are some things different about this wedge.

namely......??
 
and yet you call it a wedge?
arepo
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April 01, 2014, 09:09:13 AM


do timescales mean nothing to you? we made a higher high on the 1-day scale. not saying that this bullish price action is not significant, but since we've been making lower highs for the past 4 months, i'm pretty sure your statement is premature.

If this wasnt playing out exactly to my expectations, I might agree with you. never mind the chart, its the sentiment and fundamentals that are crying out reversal right now.

and on a large time scale, we have been diverging for many days.

longer time-scale indicators point to a downtrend that is gaining momentum. there is some divergence on the shorter time frames, but that is what bulltraps in a bear market look like.

take a look at the daily-scale CMF and MACD:


http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg150zigDailyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gCMFzi2gMACDzvzl

only today's data point is diverging, and today's candle is still premature. so, again, we've got countertrend action, but only on the daily scale, sub-daily if we consider a possible retracement in the next 12 or so hours. i would close that long soon, if i were you. you've already made some nice profit on it.
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April 01, 2014, 09:11:22 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

What was the gameplan? I missed it.

buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance.
This is not like the other rallies at all:

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