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Question: Dec. 15 Closing Price:
<$3,000 - 46 (24.6%)
$3,000-$3,200 - 14 (7.5%)
$3,200-$3,400 - 12 (6.4%)
$3,400-$3,600 - 6 (3.2%)
$3,600-$3,800 - 8 (4.3%)
$3,800-$4,000 - 10 (5.3%)
$4,000-$4,200 - 10 (5.3%)
$4,200-$4,400 - 4 (2.1%)
$4,400-$4,600 - 4 (2.1%)
$4,600-$4,800 - 3 (1.6%)
$4,800-$5,000 - 9 (4.8%)
>$5,000 - 61 (32.6%)
Total Voters: 187

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 20858999 times)
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windjc
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April 01, 2014, 09:05:29 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

What was the gameplan? I missed it.
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April 01, 2014, 09:06:54 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

chessnut
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April 01, 2014, 09:07:14 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

What was the gameplan? I missed it.

buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance.
windjc
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April 01, 2014, 09:07:54 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

What was the gameplan? I missed it.

buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance.

There are some things different about this wedge.
chessnut
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April 01, 2014, 09:08:40 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

What was the gameplan? I missed it.

buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance.

There are some things different about this wedge.

namely......??
 
and yet you call it a wedge?
arepo
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this statement is false


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April 01, 2014, 09:09:13 AM


do timescales mean nothing to you? we made a higher high on the 1-day scale. not saying that this bullish price action is not significant, but since we've been making lower highs for the past 4 months, i'm pretty sure your statement is premature.

If this wasnt playing out exactly to my expectations, I might agree with you. never mind the chart, its the sentiment and fundamentals that are crying out reversal right now.

and on a large time scale, we have been diverging for many days.

longer time-scale indicators point to a downtrend that is gaining momentum. there is some divergence on the shorter time frames, but that is what bulltraps in a bear market look like.

take a look at the daily-scale CMF and MACD:


http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg150zigDailyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gCMFzi2gMACDzvzl

only today's data point is diverging, and today's candle is still premature. so, again, we've got countertrend action, but only on the daily scale, sub-daily if we consider a possible retracement in the next 12 or so hours. i would close that long soon, if i were you. you've already made some nice profit on it.
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April 01, 2014, 09:11:22 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

What was the gameplan? I missed it.

buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance.
This is not like the other rallies at all:

chessnut
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April 01, 2014, 09:13:21 AM


do timescales mean nothing to you? we made a higher high on the 1-day scale. not saying that this bullish price action is not significant, but since we've been making lower highs for the past 4 months, i'm pretty sure your statement is premature.

If this wasnt playing out exactly to my expectations, I might agree with you. never mind the chart, its the sentiment and fundamentals that are crying out reversal right now.

and on a large time scale, we have been diverging for many days.

longer time-scale indicators point to a downtrend that is gaining momentum. there is some divergence on the shorter time frames, but that is what bulltraps in a bear market look like.

take a look at the daily-scale CMF and MACD:


http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitstampUSD#rg150zigDailyztgSzm1g10zm2g25zxzi1gCMFzi2gMACDzvzl

only today's data point is diverging, and today's candle is still premature. so, again, we've got countertrend action, but only on the daily scale, sub-daily if we consider a possible retracement in the next 12 or so hours. i would close that long soon, if i were you. you've already made some nice profit on it.

Fundamentals win, although I say chart is bullish. the bears have too much to lose, and they will. there is evidently too much buying pressure, not even the very confirmation of your worst fears can bring this market down as seen yesterday.

THE NOOBS HAVE SOLD!!
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April 01, 2014, 09:13:51 AM

April fools rally? "To the moon.. nah, just kidding! Got ya!"
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April 01, 2014, 09:14:47 AM

Dranwing lines´n stuff.

NEW DOWNWARDS CHANNEL CONFIRMED

TERA
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April 01, 2014, 09:14:56 AM

damn what a dumb move closing that short with peanuts for profit.
chessnut
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April 01, 2014, 09:15:09 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

What was the gameplan? I missed it.

buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance.
This is not like the other rallies at all:



... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!
600watt
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April 01, 2014, 09:15:33 AM

i will never learn it.

when it was in 600 territory i considered selling* but didn´t, since i believed it will go up. when it came down to 435 i started to panic. i did not sell, but promised myself: next time it is 600 territory i will sell FOR SURE, because this 400 territory is a pain when you have no fiat to buy.

but when there is the smallest move upwards (like curently) all my desire to sell is gone. i just cannot do it. having sold and then see the price go up seems to be an even harder pain then panicing about total loss.



*when i talk about selling i mean 10 - 20 % of my stash

Selling on the possible recovery is asking to get trapped, sell either when its really high and is for sure going to be a correction, or when there are fresh negative news and market is tanking way above previous bottoms


sounds good. please send a pm the next time i should sell  Smiley
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April 01, 2014, 09:17:54 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

What was the gameplan? I missed it.

buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance.
This is not like the other rallies at all:



... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!
That's not going to fix that the EMA has been breached twice and is now sloping downwards.
chessnut
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April 01, 2014, 09:19:05 AM

That's not going to fix that the EMA has been breached twice and is now sloping downwards.

Lagging indicators.... they change with the market.
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April 01, 2014, 09:20:49 AM

Dranwing lines´n stuff.

NEW DOWNWARDS CHANNEL CONFIRMED



Hahaha don't make me laugh
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April 01, 2014, 09:23:39 AM

Bitcoin market right now is a pingpong between short and long squeeze. If there ain´t
millions of fresh money comin in we will go down to 150$ as planned.
arepo
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this statement is false


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April 01, 2014, 09:26:54 AM

Fundamentals win, although I say chart is bullish.

... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!

this is not at all how technical analysis works...
magicmexican
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April 01, 2014, 09:27:29 AM

confirmed going to 0$, short now and rebuy at -10$
JorgeStolfi
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April 01, 2014, 09:29:24 AM

Idle exercise:

The Market now assigns some probability P to the bank blockade rumor being true.

If the rumor is false, the price should go up again to the pre-rumor level, ~580 USD (Bitstamp).

If the rumor is true, the price should go down to some value X, less than 480.

The current price should be the Market's expected price in the near future (even if the Market is not conscious of these computations, and plays it "by ear"). That is,

  P*X + (1-P)*580 = 480    <==>
  P*(580 - X) = 580-480 = 100   <==>
  P = 100/(580-X)   <==>

Since X < 480, we have P < 100/(580 - 480) = 1, not informative.

Since X > 0, we have P > 100/580 = 0.17.

Therefore the Market thinks that there is at least 17% probability that the bank block is true.
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