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Question: July 21 Closing Price:
<$5,000 - 16 (11.8%)
$5,000-$5,500 - 6 (4.4%)
$5,500-$6,000 - 13 (9.6%)
$6,000-$6,500 - 23 (16.9%)
$6,500-$7,000 - 22 (16.2%)
$7,000-$7,500 - 15 (11%)
$7,500-$8,000 - 15 (11%)
$8,000-$8,500 - 4 (2.9%)
$8,500-$9,000 - 3 (2.2%)
>$9,000 - 19 (14%)
Total Voters: 136

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 20333235 times)
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chessnut
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April 01, 2014, 09:15:09 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

What was the gameplan? I missed it.

buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance.
This is not like the other rallies at all:



... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!
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600watt
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April 01, 2014, 09:15:33 AM

i will never learn it.

when it was in 600 territory i considered selling* but didn´t, since i believed it will go up. when it came down to 435 i started to panic. i did not sell, but promised myself: next time it is 600 territory i will sell FOR SURE, because this 400 territory is a pain when you have no fiat to buy.

but when there is the smallest move upwards (like curently) all my desire to sell is gone. i just cannot do it. having sold and then see the price go up seems to be an even harder pain then panicing about total loss.



*when i talk about selling i mean 10 - 20 % of my stash

Selling on the possible recovery is asking to get trapped, sell either when its really high and is for sure going to be a correction, or when there are fresh negative news and market is tanking way above previous bottoms


sounds good. please send a pm the next time i should sell  Smiley
TERA
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April 01, 2014, 09:17:54 AM

People, four months ago, this was exactly the game plan!! and some of you are letting it go by, or making a loss!

What was the gameplan? I missed it.

buy on the dip to cerca 500. this playing out as a wedge, just like five other bubbles have done, with uncanny resemblance.
This is not like the other rallies at all:



... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!
That's not going to fix that the EMA has been breached twice and is now sloping downwards.
chessnut
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April 01, 2014, 09:19:05 AM

That's not going to fix that the EMA has been breached twice and is now sloping downwards.

Lagging indicators.... they change with the market.
atleticofa
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April 01, 2014, 09:20:49 AM

Dranwing lines´n stuff.

NEW DOWNWARDS CHANNEL CONFIRMED



Hahaha don't make me laugh
fonzie
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April 01, 2014, 09:23:39 AM

Bitcoin market right now is a pingpong between short and long squeeze. If there ain´t
millions of fresh money comin in we will go down to 150$ as planned.
arepo
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this statement is false


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April 01, 2014, 09:26:54 AM

Fundamentals win, although I say chart is bullish.

... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!

this is not at all how technical analysis works...
magicmexican
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April 01, 2014, 09:27:29 AM

confirmed going to 0$, short now and rebuy at -10$
JorgeStolfi
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April 01, 2014, 09:29:24 AM

Idle exercise:

The Market now assigns some probability P to the bank blockade rumor being true.

If the rumor is false, the price should go up again to the pre-rumor level, ~580 USD (Bitstamp).

If the rumor is true, the price should go down to some value X, less than 480.

The current price should be the Market's expected price in the near future (even if the Market is not conscious of these computations, and plays it "by ear"). That is,

  P*X + (1-P)*580 = 480    <==>
  P*(580 - X) = 580-480 = 100   <==>
  P = 100/(580-X)   <==>

Since X < 480, we have P < 100/(580 - 480) = 1, not informative.

Since X > 0, we have P > 100/580 = 0.17.

Therefore the Market thinks that there is at least 17% probability that the bank block is true.
strawbs
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April 01, 2014, 09:29:30 AM

Fundamentals win, although I say chart is bullish.

... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!

this is not at all how technical analysis works...

Technical analysis is not at all how bitcoin works...
Zule
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April 01, 2014, 09:29:42 AM

we will go down to 150$ as planned.
People need to realitycheck their positions, while its not too late.
TERA
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April 01, 2014, 09:31:54 AM

Fundamentals win, although I say chart is bullish.

... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!

this is not at all how technical analysis works...

Technical analysis is not at all how bitcoin works...
People say bitcoin doesn't follow TA but bitcoin actually follows TA more than any other asset, due to the predictable fixed supply and relatively static fundamentals.
chessnut
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April 01, 2014, 09:32:24 AM

Fundamentals win, although I say chart is bullish.

... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!

this is not at all how technical analysis works...

actually my point was that this analysis is highly ambiguous.
chessnut
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April 01, 2014, 09:33:37 AM

confirmed going to 0$, short now and rebuy at -10$

 Cheesy
JorgeStolfi
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April 01, 2014, 09:34:33 AM

Do people really believe that by analyzing the past prices one can tell whether the PBoC rumor is true or false?
strawbs
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April 01, 2014, 09:35:24 AM

Fundamentals win, although I say chart is bullish.

... Just move that yellow circle a bit to the right..... and hey presto!

this is not at all how technical analysis works...

Technical analysis is not at all how bitcoin works...
People say bitcoin doesn't follow TA but bitcoin actually follows TA more than any other asset, due to the predictable fixed supply and relatively static fundamentals.

Is that an April fool's joke?
chessnut
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April 01, 2014, 09:36:28 AM

Do people really believe that by analyzing the past prices one can tell whether the PBoC rumor is true or false?


well we had some real news just yesterday to confirm third party bans. It's old news, ask Risto.

There was a lil' flash panic, and then the bulls took over.

No more noobs to sell!
TERA
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April 01, 2014, 09:37:00 AM

Do people really believe that by analyzing the past prices one can tell whether the PBoC rumor is true or false?

When money flow from china/banks stop, it will cause changes in supply and demand which TA is excellent at detecting.
chessnut
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April 01, 2014, 09:38:34 AM

Do people really believe that by analyzing the past prices one can tell whether the PBoC rumor is true or false?

When money flow from china/banks stop, it will cause changes in supply and demand which TA is excellent at detecting.

but that has not in fact happened yet. lets talk on the 15th April.
spooderman
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April 01, 2014, 09:39:20 AM

I hope today we make it past 520 (blaze it)

A happy April if so!
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