Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Arriemoller]

And of course that didn't work either.

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[Arriemoller]

And now it does, wtf, I'm logging out now.

[a1 Hashrate LLC2022]

Sweden to join NATO along with Finland Putin sure knows how to help Russia (not)

He is helping oil people. OPEC is going to increase its oil production and why not at the current price per barrel.

hmm $120 a barrel and OPEC will raise 400,000 Barrels a day or  48 million a day this is about $17,520,000,000 a year

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Arriemoller]

Sweden to join NATO along with Finland Putin sure knows how to help Russia (not)

He is helping oil people. OPEC is going to increase its oil production and why not at the current price per barrel.

hmm $120 a barrel and OPEC will raise 400,000 Barrels a day or  48 million a day this is about $17,520,000,000 a year

Is there a point to your incohesive ramblings?

[machasm]

A british man, by the way.

I have often thought that Satoshi may well be British or at least resided in the UK because of the clue left in the mining of the first block stating that the "Bank of england was on the brink of another bailout" since this appeared as a headline in a UK newspaper as I am sure you all know.

[death_wish]

bitcoin loves Sweden (and hates Russia, as do every normal person in the world).

Bitcoin loves Russia, and Sweden, and the Ukraine, and America, and everyone else.

That’s not some sort of hippie singing-Kumbaya nonsense.  It is the hardheaded practical wisdom of an absolutely neutral monetary system—something that you will appreciate when the shoe is on the other foot.

Russia is welcome to use Bitcoin!  It also means that Putin can’t stop anyone anywhere from using Bitcoin.  That is a package deal:  You can’t get one without the other.

I defend my enemies’ right to use Bitcoin, and I even encourage them to use Bitcoin.  For if they use Bitcoin, their self-interest then compels them to protect my Bitcoin.  The more I hate someone, the more I want that person to use Bitcoin.  It should go without saying, I also want my friends to use Bitcoin; and the more I love someone, the more I want that person to use Bitcoin.  As such, nothing that I say about Bitcoin implies anything either way (or any which way) about my own political alignments.

[JayJuanGee]

Still range bound between $29,000 & $32,000. Meh, still feels a lot better than $7,600 which is what we were at on 6th June in 2018. If it follows the same path we should bottom at approx $21,000 early in 2023 & then go sideways for a significant period around $25,000 before a slow climb upwards as we enter 2024 which is halvening year. Absolute moon in 2025, something like $250,000.

I still advocate that everything under $30,000 will look like a genius buy within 2 years. Keep stacking those sats, boys.

This is not financial advice.

Maybe you are delusional, LFC.. ?    .#nohomo

Didn't the Dude shake you until some sense came into you in your last meeting?  Like the airplane scene? or you just choose not to talk about it?

I am going to use your same year.. 2018.. and of course, we can use other reference points, but I am working with your framework.

What I'm trying to say is that on June 6, 2018 the 200-week moving average was $2,361 (you can see the historical 200-week moving average numbers here), and that is less than 1/3 of then BTC price (as you pointed it out as $7,600-ish).  Even when we got the beginning of the BTC price crash in mid-November 2018 the BTC price was just starting to go below $6k, but the 200-week moving average had moved just above $3k. 

Yes, we know that particular crashening brought the BTC price down to $3,124 but then largely the BTC price lingered mostly sub $4k until about late March 2019.
The 200-week moving average slowly moved up through that whole time by about $3-ish per day, so by the time we got to late March, the 200-week moving average was $3,440 - but the BTC price was $4,100.. so through that whole time, the BTC price did not really get below the 200-week moving average, even though the BTC price was close to touching it for a decent period of time.

As I type this post, the 200-week moving average is quite close to $22,200, and it is moving up more than $25 per day.  In the next 120 days, we will be in early October, so the 200-week moving average is going to be about $3k higher than it is now, which is above $25k. 

I just have a difficult time appreciating how you are even projecting out similar comparatives - even if we go with some kind of 4-year fractional theory method  as you seem to be outlining.  In some senses, you are suggesting that the BTC price is going to end up going 16% below the 200-week moving average which seems more like a black swan theory rather than employing any kind of realistic fractional theory.

By the way, I am not even proclaiming that the 200-week moving average cannot be breached to the downside.. yet your comparison of 2018 really did not accomplish such... You can see from my already provided link that in 2015, we did get quite a bit of breaches below the 200-week moving average which started at about $190 in January 2015 and ended 2015 at about $260.  So in 2015 we did spend quite a bit of time lingering right around the 200-week moving average and even a decent amount below it.  Even in March 2020, we had a spike below the 200-week moving average that lasted a couple of weeks, and the 200-week moving average was at about $5,500 at that time.

No problem preparing for worser-case scenarios, and I am likely not going to be removing my buy orders in the lower $20ks and in the $19k area in the coming months, but those seem to be more likely within a kind of black swan scenario rather than any kind of base case scenario (which you seem to be outlining when you are emphasizing a kind of fractional theory comparison) and not even talking about black swans.  Of course, the whole damned-world seems to be filled with black swans these days - so maybe in some sense, you and other folks, are just building black swans into their perceptions of the "new normal?"   I am not going to do it. even though I am not unprepared both psychologically and financially for those more extreme scenarios, but I am not going to refer to them as any kind of meaningful base case outline of what is a kind of normal expectation of what is going to happen.

[death_wish]

We don’t need a telephone game, when it is embedded in Block 0 where you can check it:

I have often thought that Satoshi may well be British or at least resided in the UK because of the clue left in the mining of the first block stating that the "Bank of england was on the brink of another bailout" since this appeared as a headline in a UK newspaper as I am sure you all know.

“The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”, as I am sure you all know.

Of course, that means Satoshi is British!  Because it’s not as if an honorable old cypherpunk could ever intentionally sow disinfo to divert future rumours.  Wait a moment, does “Satoshi Nakamoto” sound like a British name to you?  He is obviously Japanese.  He used a British newspaper headline as a misdirection to stop you from searching for him in Japan.

Plot twist:  Satoshi really is my dog!  He did plant plenty of disinfo to make people believe that he was human.  Woof!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[OutOfMemory]

We don’t need a telephone game, when it is embedded in Block 0 where you can check it:

I have often thought that Satoshi may well be British or at least resided in the UK because of the clue left in the mining of the first block stating that the "Bank of england was on the brink of another bailout" since this appeared as a headline in a UK newspaper as I am sure you all know.

“The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”, as I am sure you all know.

Of course, that means Satoshi is British!  Because it’s not as if an honorable old cypherpunk could ever intentionally sow disinfo to divert future rumours.  Wait a moment, does “Satoshi Nakamoto” sound like a British name to you?  He is obviously Japanese.  He used a British newspaper headline as a misdirection to stop you from searching for him in Japan.

Plot twist:  Satoshi really is my dog!  He did plant plenty of disinfo to make people believe that he was human.  Woof!

 

EDIT:
Either this is some kind of irony (which i didn't get), or you missed the fact that SN could be british, pretending to be Japanese/Asian for the same reason you gave...

[shahzadafzal]

OT:

If you blended all 7.88 billion ppl on Earth into a fine goo (density of a human=985 kg/m3, average human body mass=62 kg), you would end up with a sphere of human goo just under 1 km wide. This is a visualization of how that would look like in Central Park.

© reddit/kiwi2703

and weight of that human goo ball will be 332bn kg ~ 732bn lbs



https://twitter.com/_astroerika/status/1533178823335940096?s=21

[fillippone]

We don’t need a telephone game, when it is embedded in Block 0 where you can check it:

I have often thought that Satoshi may well be British or at least resided in the UK because of the clue left in the mining of the first block stating that the "Bank of england was on the brink of another bailout" since this appeared as a headline in a UK newspaper as I am sure you all know.

“The Times 03/Jan/2009 Chancellor on brink of second bailout for banks”, as I am sure you all know.

Of course, that means Satoshi is British!  Because it’s not as if an honorable old cypherpunk could ever intentionally sow disinfo to divert future rumours.  Wait a moment, does “Satoshi Nakamoto” sound like a British name to you?  He is obviously Japanese.  He used a British newspaper headline as a misdirection to stop you from searching for him in Japan.

Plot twist:  Satoshi really is my dog!  He did plant plenty of disinfo to make people believe that he was human.  Woof!

 

EDIT:
Either this is some kind of irony (which i didn't get), or you missed the fact that SN could be british, pretending to be Japanese/Asian for the same reason you gave...

At least we know he wasn't italian:




Thisi is a fake image, sorry guys.

[Biodom]

Sen. Lummis is about to introduce her bill (on Tuesday, I believe).

https://www.scribd.com/document/576008331/Lummis-Bill-Draft

Thanks.  Is there a non-scribd link where a PDF or similar can be downloaded?

The bill text that you linked is incorrect.  It has been explicitly disclaimed by Senator Lummis.  Please be more cautious.

https://nitter.net/SenLummis/status/1530281115247951872

I am working diligently with @sengillibrand to finalize bill text of our comprehensive digital asset legislation.

Any language circulating online is an incredibly outdated version from March 1. Stay tuned for our release of the actual bill on June 7th!

May 27, 2022 · 8:13 PM UTC · Twitter for iPhone

I found that tweet when searching for this about a week ago.  It was linked in a correction to an article by The Block.  The said article also linked to the exact same Scribd page—I didn’t notice earlier that it is the exact same link.

Here’s a full draft of Senator Cynthia Lummis' landmark crypto bill

by Kollen Post

[...]

In the months since the bill’s initial announcement, the senator’s staff has kept the actual text of the draft under wraps, using software that prohibits sharing and printing of the document. Various members of the crypto industry, lobby and Congressional staffers have expressed frustration about the limited access to the bill, which has changed frequently.

[...]

[Highlight of the following: https://archive.ph/TQcog#selection-785.0-815.10]

Following the publication of this story, Lummis said in a tweet that "any language circulating online is an incredibly outdated version from March 1," adding: "Stay tuned for our release of the actual bill on June 7th!"

According to a source with knowledge of the behind-the-scenes process, staffers have continued to update the bill’s contents.

Editor's Note: This story has been updated to reflect that, according to a post-publication comment from the Lummis team, the draft is dated March 1. Also adds a tweet from Lummis.

Lummis Bill Draft by Mike McSweeney on Scribd

Since The Block failed to fact-check this adequately before publication, I will make a mental note to be more skeptical of their articles (and of the byline “journalist”) in the future.


This is not only of interest to Americans.  Just as political pressure on mining in the E.U. affects American Bitcoiners, and just as 1990s-era U.S. export regulations on cryptography affected everyone in the world, I think that major American legislative activity about Bitcoin and cryptocurrency is of more general interest.

With all due respect to Senator Lummis, I’ll just say for now—this could be for better, or for worse.  If the bill released June 7 is anything like that early draft, I think it is overall much for the worse (despite a few improvements to the situation).  However, Senator Lummis obviously did not want to be held to whatever that text said.  Perhaps there may have been some major improvements.

Ah, back and forth.
1. Some publication posted the link, that is all that it is. Not sure about the concerns about "incorrect" and "be careful".
2. pretty sure 99% of it will be there, especially $600 cut out and mining income only after you sell. 1% possible change might be some minutia.

Contrary to what you hope for, I expect no major improvements.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Biodom]

OT:

If you blended all 7.88 billion ppl on Earth into a fine goo (density of a human=985 kg/m3, average human body mass=62 kg), you would end up with a sphere of human goo just under 1 km wide. This is a visualization of how that would look like in Central Park.

© reddit/kiwi2703

and weight of that human goo ball will be 332bn kg ~ 732bn lbs



https://twitter.com/_astroerika/status/1533178823335940096?s=21

Interesting, but totally GROSS.
I guess, it would be an AI perspective on humanity: it's worth the amount of organic matter (carbon, oxygen and hydrogen are otherwise plentiful in the universe)

[death_wish]

... Satoshi ...

Plot twist:  Satoshi really is my dog!  He did plant plenty of disinfo to make people believe that he was human.  Woof!

At least we know he wasn't italian:




Thisi is a fake image, sorry guys.

lulz.  Obviously fake:  Satoshi was not the type who omits periods at the ends of sentences.  Though I wouldn’t be surprised if he paid 100k BTC for a pineapple pizza with a black-bread crust baked with beer.  (Does such a thing exist?)

Anyway, thanks for the public demonstration of one reason why I lambaste idiots who unnecessarily and inappropriately (ab)use screenshots:  Screenshots are easy to fake.  They have some appropriate, unavoidable uses—but showing the content of public webpages is not one of them.

QUOTE THE TEXT, AND LINK TO THE SOURCE.  IF YOU WANT TO SAVE SOMETHING THAT MAY DISAPPEAR, TAKE AN ARCHIVAL SNAPSHOT.  STOP POSTING SCREENSHOTS OF THINGS THAT YOU CAN QUOTE AND LINK!


Another reason is accessibility.  But who cares about the visually impaired?  LOL, blind people.  They are so sad, it’s funny to watch them struggle to interpret online content they cannot see.  Hah-hah!

Well, that’s not my opinion; but it is the opinion of everyone who post screenshots of text that they could quote and link.  Do the screenshotters also purposely trip cripples, kick puppies, and throw rocks at the elderly just for jollies?


P.S., OutOfMemory, yes, you missed my point.

[shahzadafzal]

At least we know he wasn't italian:

Adding to discussion I remember this article I’m sure it was shared here WO

The Strange Story of Satoshi Nakamoto’s Spelling Choices

Breakdown of Satoshi’s spelling.


Satoshi’s spelling by day of week.


Satoshi’s spelling choices (words grouped by common stem).


Full article
https://ungeared.com/the-strange-story-of-satoshi-nakamotos-spelling-choices-part-1/

[Freeveto]

GRAYSCALE............

11,000 Investors have shared there opinion with the SEC on proposal to convert GBTC to a Spot Bitcoin ETF.
https://twitter.com/Grayscale/status/1533854285104041985?t=XJo1JyCjlmG7oyO1hSDq3w&s=19



As we have one more month to go until SEC takes a decision on Grayscale spot Bitcoin ETF proposal.
From my perspective , whatever outcome or  decisions that may be taken by SEC, it is likely going to
have a significant impact on BTC and thus drive the entire market either ways.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation