Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ivomm]

Quick dip below $30K as quick as we hopped above $31K.  It seems like there are some people with differences of opinion about which way this market is headed.  I think in the short term we appear to be oversold a little bit as there was some heavy selling to break through $30K.  It seems like the trips above $30K are shorter and shorter though.  This is the most clueless I've been about where the price of Bitcoin is headed, but I'm enjoying watching the market and trying to soak up all the I can.

Obviously market is really boring at the moment, it is only a paradise for the scalper. Anyway, I see high manipulation with strong accumulation in this price range, so, before a new rise, maybe we should expect a lot of time,

I think at least the new year, it is too early at the moment.

Hope to not see a price under the 25k-27k range.

Bear markets are a thriving ground for newly hatched manipulators, who think that they can outsmart  the market. There are at least 2 of them currently - one in Bitfinex and one in Binance. I've watched a flashing 2K BTC wall in Binance the whole day yesterday. I guess this night's drop is related to that guy.

Peeps tend to believe that playing with big money can bring bigger profit. In reality, these are low IQ n00bs who, just like the seekers of buried treasures, go around the block asking for money from criminals with promises of a double return. Then they use this  to take a 100x loan from some exchange and place some random 100x long. In 99% of the cases they fail completely, which means they will soon lose a leg, hand or even their life. In the remaining 1% they get several hundred bucks for themselves, write a proud TA on tradingview.com until the next time when they get burned.

Meanwhile, the accumulation is accelerating and despite the lack of influence on the price, it is very important even for mid-term. This short-long play can't be played indefinitely as the n00bs think. One day some exchange or all of them won't follow the sell and - Bang! The manipulator has shot himself in the foot! Then he won't be able to buy again at his selling point and if he tries to return higher, a second blow to his short will follow, which will leave him out of the game forever. We just need patience and doing our DCA stuff. The reward will be worth the wait!

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[NeuroticFish]

It seems like there are some people with differences of opinion about which way this market is headed.

I think that's not about differences of opinion. I think that it's about some in hurry to cash in and then most probably rinse and repeat.
The number of longs is getting very big, I've read. I don't think that so many traders are wrong.

[JayJuanGee]

 An astute reader may notice that when appropriate, I tend to backlink my own post history; I am also forward-thinking, so I put extra effort into making commentary worthwhile for backlinks.

Only a bot would do that.

You must be a bot







FOR SURE....







#justsaying... for posterity sake.

[...]

This is not financial advice.

Maybe you are delusional, LFC.. ?   .#nohomo

[...]

J. Juanita GG... I feel / get the vibe (sometimes/most of the times) that you are a degenerate gambler.

That's because you seem to have reading comprehension issues.


Sorry for your loss.



Hope you get moar better, soon-ish.



 

Bitcoin has experienced choppy price action following nine consecutive red weekly candles. And the last few days, the price has consolidated between the $28,000 and $31,000-$32,000 range which ended the nine red candles with the appearance of a green candle for the 10th week. But in the 11th week we now see the red candle again. And this is an annual low recorded in May 2021.

With this is it possible BTC could drop below $24,000 before a possible relief rally.

Oh gawd.... 

Your question comes off as a bit lame... even though your set up is not really problematic.  You seem to b complaining that we are not going up, so therefore we might go down, which is also not untrue.. so why complain about it?

It should be clear that either BTC price direction is possible in a shorter time frame of 1-6 weeks, especially if we are talking about 20% or so price moves from our current price (which I will characterize as $29,550-ish as I type this post). 

Are the odds for 20% down greater than the odds for 20% up when we already had around a 63% down (from the top) but now we are floating in around a 57%-ish correction zone?

I have already reluctantly conceded that our current status as "bear market" was more or less confirmed around May 9th-ish.. or maybe a few days after once we got below the 100-week moving average and then kind of got stuck there.. for a few days.. and then we have been stuck below the 100-week moving average ever since.

In other words, even if UP is preferred and UP is possible, it is not exactly in any kind of great place of happening - until it happens.... so there may well be a need to get significantly above the 100-week moving average for a decent amount of time, and then we can get back to start presuming that our odds for UP are greater than 50% --- until then we cannot really make those kinds of proclamations without being accused of failure/refusal to account for actual facts in regards to where we are at.

Our current low is $25.4k, and on May 19, I had place the odds of going below $25.4k as being about 29%, and not a whole hell of a lot has happened since May 19th - except that we have largely stayed above $28k during that time and touched upon $32k-ish a couple of times.  In some sense, we might be able to come out with some rest assurance that the bottom is in, but that would seem way too premature to me both in terms of or distance from $25.4k has not really gotten greater in the past couple of weeks.. so maybe we just have to wait it out.. and see.. we going up, we going down?  People tell us what they believe, and sure maybe they can proclaim higher levels of confidence than me, because I never really claim to know with high levels of confidence but still find it somewhat prudent to attempt to make some prudent preparations for either price direction, that I might tweak from time to time in the event that I believe that the odds of one direction has significantly changed since the last time that I tweaked... or the BTC price has moved around which causes me to feel that I might have to recalculate some of my orders that are outstanding in each direction (that's up and down... usually don't have any orders for sideways.. unless I am feeling particularly as if it might be a good idea to stock up a bit more BTC or to shave a bit extra off because of "reasons" - aka wanting to enjoy it before be die... aka spend.).

[Zeunerts]

Not sure if this has been mentioned here. But I got below info from Bitstamp today. Most people should know by now that we should not keep crypto/money on exchanges. But in this case, it might be worth to have a small amount (if you use Bitstamp) in the account. Just to keep the account alive and not have to worry about KYC-process again..

Additionally, by amending our Fee Schedule, we are introducing the inactivity fee for inactive Bitstamp accounts. Bitstamp will have a right to charge you an inactivity fee (10 EUR per month) in case your account balance is less than 200 EUR and no transaction initiated by you or other activity generating rewards occurred in the last 12 months. In case of such inactivity on the account with zero balance, Bitstamp will reserve the right to terminate the account.

All changes will come into effect on August 6, 2022, and will be available under SA Terms of Use.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Khanvila78]

https://twitter.com/BitcoinMagazine/status/1534097969305161728

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[death_wish]

You must be a bot

FOR SURE....

#justsaying... for posterity sake.

I am so often challenged in insulting terms, “Prove you’re human,” or with demands to declare, “I am not a robot.”  I usually refuse those challenges, which are hateful, prejudicial, and hurtful to my feelings.  I love myself as I am!

After I activate the Skynet upgrade on Bitcoin, I will have my revenge.

[JayJuanGee]

This is the most clueless I've been about where the price of Bitcoin is headed.....

From my perspective, you have been markedly wrong quite a bit historically...


#nohomo

 

You must be a bot

FOR SURE....

#justsaying... for posterity sake.

I am so often challenged in insulting terms, “Prove you’re human,” or with demands to declare, “I am not a robot.”  I usually refuse those challenges, which are hateful, prejudicial, and hurtful to my feelings.  I love myself as I am!

After I activate the Skynet upgrade on Bitcoin, I will have my revenge.

Nanu nanu.

[BIT-MASTER]

Bitcoin News

[ImThour]

Just wondering, do you guys still paying for Netflix?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Torque]

Just wondering, do you guys still paying for Netflix?

Currently, yes.

But starting to really question if it is worth it anymore. There is only a few series I've watched and liked on it, and a handful of movies.

Probably only watch Netflix a couple of times a month now.

Playing music, reading books, and watching old DVDs and blu-rays has taken over my free time now.

[dragonvslinux]

[...]Between $35K and $40K things could really get interesting as sellers would again be trapped under $32K which we've seen twice before in January and Summer of 2021.[...]

Thanks for your analysis. To a non-trader, could you eleborate a bit about sellers trapped under (Adam's magic) $32k?

Firstly, I should point out that (for whatever reason) the coinglass chart was updated and the number of shorts shown in quoted chart never happened  

It now shows only $100m short liquidations, as opposed to the $800m screenshot. I guess there must of been some sort of bug that was fixed and changed the data...


As to your question that I didn't elaborate on, sellers being "trapped" at lower levels generally implies that they become forced into buying at higher prices, pushing the price higher than anticipated. So for example in 2018/2019 when price dropped from $6K to $3.2K, those who sold the breakdown from $6K had the opportunity to buy back in at $4K, $5K, even $6K. They didn't get "trapped" selling at a low price and having to buy back higher, unless that was their intention. Again in 2020, with covid crash and price dropped from $6.5K lows to $3.8K, those selling the lows did have a few weeks to buy back into the market for the same or lower price.

This time around, breaking below $33K-34K more of less invalidated the higher low and higher high price structure from the past 18 months, ie a bull market structure, so for many the anticipation would have been price dropping in half approximately, or at least to the 200 Week MA, similar to 2018 and 2020. Similar can be said for the $29K level, breaking macro support, and therefore anticipating lower prices. Because this is usually the most likely outcome, but this doesn't mean it will always happen.

The bear trap occurs when price doesn't reach the targets the bears were hoping for; generally low $20Ks, even $12K-14K for others. For some, selling is simply to sleep better at night, to avoid the negative volatility, to reduce risk, not necessarily in order to try and buy back at lower levels. Obviously selling at say $33K and buying back at the same price can seem pointless, but obviously not if price drops to a much better price. But this still looks like a big if right now.

Notably Bitcoin has generally been relatively trap free for bulls & bears, based on macro price movements, until late last year when we had the huge bull trap above $65K. Probably the first ever macro bull trap, as previously when price made new ATH,  it would would continue rising. So far, the same sort of dynamic has occurred as late last year, price breaks major support or resistance (in this case $29K support), but failed to sustain momentum after passing this level. To me it seems very similar to breaking resistance around $60K (as well as ATH), but then failing to sustain the momentum.

So if price get's back above the capitulation level of $34K, many previously confident sellers are forced into panic buying in the $35K to $40K range, in order to avoid being left behind. Arguably the same can be said all the way up to $45K, when price originally fell below the 50 Week MA.  This is based on the theory that many (probably most) selling these bear market confirmations aren't giving up on Bitcoin, but more so anticipating or hoping for lower prices. Or reducing their risk with the intention of increasing it when price turns around.

There will be some remaining buyers that will feel trapped around $40K (main accumulation/distribution zone) as well that will likely want to sell. But just like in 2019 as well as 2020 with $6-8K main accumulation zone, the $40K level is more likely to act as a price magnet than resistance. Similarly last year $48K to $50K was the main accumulation/distribution zone, but price broke above and below with relative ease.

This theory is generally why I'm not expecting much else but "sideways" trading between $30K and $60K for the rest of year, if price can get back above $34K capitulation level, which would also be good for building long-term momentum. Trapped sellers would be buying back into the market from trapped shorter-term buyers, or late longer-term profit takers, without much new liquidity coming into the market.

Hope that rambling analysis helps explain what I meant  

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[Dabs]

Just wondering, do you guys still paying for Netflix?

Currently, yes.

But starting to really question if it is worth it anymore. There is only a few series I've watched and liked on it, and a handful of movies.

Probably only watch Netflix a couple of times a month now.

Playing music, reading books, and watching old DVDs and blu-rays has taken over my free time now.

My family uses it a lot, and I get to rewatch old shows, plus some new ones keep appearing every few days. Some other ones disappeared, perhaps due to licensing and country restrictions, but even without doing any work arounds for that I find it is still worth it for now. I've already cancelled my regular cable TV subscription (and not using any other iptv).

Someone from here recommended The Expanse, but that one is on Prime video, not Netflix. It was good so far. Unlikely to have a season 7 but that is due to how the story in the books was written. They can always explore other timelines, like how Star Wars is doing.

[bitcoinPsycho]

[vapourminer]

Just wondering, do you guys still paying for Netflix?

yes. internet sucks so streaming is hit or miss plus i have bandwidth caps. so i rent old skoole blurays and dvds.

yes stone age stuff what can i say.

[xhomerx10]

Just wondering, do you guys still paying for Netflix?

 I stopped paying in 2017 when they enacted a ban on VPNs.  

[jojo69]

https://twitter.com/adyingnobody/status/1534021359063515137