Good morning WO. I see we are desperately in need of a new poll.
Any realistic TA which says we will see 40k soon?
Not really, at least not yet. Unless price can get above $32.5K, then you can officially consider it impossible
(try and prove me wrong with that analysis haha)There is a relatively big volume gap from the past 9 months between $30K and $40K, so if price can get back above the capitulation level of $34K-$35K, then it would be highly likely to get back to the accumulation/distribution level of $40K. Otherwise the rejection from previous support would likely lead to a re-test of $25K or lower. Thinking $30K would hold a second time round would be naive I think.
If you're a trapped buyer at $40K, then bare in mind that price returning to $40K soon would give high probability of confirming a macro bottom, as on the Weekly scale price would have left oversold levels and therefore signal a retracement back to the 0.618 fib level, around $50K, same as in 2019 @ $14K and 2020 @ $10K. So it'd be the equivalent of selling around $6K-$8K for reference sake prior to further upside.
(I am short-term bullish at current prices however, at least to re-test $34K-$35K capitulation level. Whether price can get above there yet is a different story however. Longer-term I remain neutral.)This theory is generally why I'm not expecting much else but "sideways" trading between $30K and $60K for the rest of year, if price can get back above $34K capitulation level, which would also be good for building long-term momentum. Trapped sellers would be buying back into the market from trapped shorter-term buyers, or late longer-term profit takers, without much new liquidity coming into the market.
Poll
