Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[Dr. LY]

Bull trapped last night when I saw that Huobi spike, thinking that someone in China knew something I didn't.

[oda.krell]

Anyone wants to be let in on a little secret?

Remember a month ago, maybe two? When 400 had everyone salivating? We basically never got *near* that number, except for the 2 flash crashes that pushed that deep simply because of momentum and panic.

What's the situation now? You going to buy at 400, for sure? 400 coins still make you drool?

I don't know how you guys trade, but if I drool over 400 coins, I sure as hell would start placing bids around 440....

...only that's not happening. Or at least not in sufficient strength. Here's a really pretty simple prediction: 400 will feel "normal" soon. Not cheap, but normal. And if the bear market really kicks in, it will start looking expensive, but that part I'm not going to claim with certainty.

[dreamspark]

I'm thinking that this is just going to play out the same way as each exchange makes their announcement. Can either sit up all night and wait for each one or just hodl. Think I might just hodl this time.

[klopper]

For the ones who bought high & sodl low!

[EuroTrash]

Good point, oda.krell.

Someone here said that if $200 ever happens (and I don't think so), you won't want to buy.

OTOH I am surprised that, so far, only the western markets are dropping on Chinese news.

[dropt]

Anyone wants to be let in on a little secret?

Remember a month ago, maybe two? When 400 had everyone salivating? We basically never got *near* that number, except for the 2 flash crashes that pushed that deep simply because of momentum and panic.

What's the situation now? You going to buy at 400, for sure? 400 coins still make you drool?

I don't know how you guys trade, but if I drool over 400 coins, I sure as hell would start placing bids around 440....

...only that's not happening. Or at least not in sufficient strength. Here's a really pretty simple prediction: 400 will feel "normal" soon. Not cheap, but normal. And if the bear market really kicks in, it will start looking expensive, but that part I'm not going to claim with certainty.

[Aki4real]

The coins keep getting cheaper, I will buy again at $400..

IMHO do not sell, do not buy.. at the moment we want to see a clear winner of the battle between bears and bulls. That will be 500+ or 400-

[infofront]

Anyone wants to be let in on a little secret?

Remember a month ago, maybe two? When 400 had everyone salivating? We basically never got *near* that number, except for the 2 flash crashes that pushed that deep simply because of momentum and panic.

What's the situation now? You going to buy at 400, for sure? 400 coins still make you drool?

I don't know how you guys trade, but if I drool over 400 coins, I sure as hell would start placing bids around 440....

...only that's not happening. Or at least not in sufficient strength. Here's a really pretty simple prediction: 400 will feel "normal" soon. Not cheap, but normal. And if the bear market really kicks in, it will start looking expensive, but that part I'm not going to claim with certainty.

Yeah. 300 is the new 400.

[sonofliberty]

Well well well...

[oda.krell]

Good point, oda.krell.

Someone here said that if $200 ever happens (and I don't think so), you won't want to buy.

OTOH I am surprised that, so far, only the western markets are dropping on Chinese news.

I'm not sure it's that easy...

That's another thing I thought about earlier today: a number of really reasonable forum members made claims in the past like "If we ever go back into the double digits, it will be on the way to zero", or "one thing we know for sure is that we never fall below the previous ATH".

Problem is, we have almost no data. We trade this mofo for a bit more than 3 years. All those "patterns" that are supposed to hold in all eternity (like the one that says we don't correct lower than previous ATH), we have 2, maybe 3 repetitions. As anyone with a bit of knowledge of statistics can tell you, that's nothing to work with. You can still use it as your best bet for trading (and I'm sure the previous ATH, if we go that low, would be a point of support), but the idea that it *never* can happen because it didn't happen *3 times* is ludicrous.

So maybe we go all the way back to 300. Maybe 200. Maybe below 100 (unlikely, but as always possible). I'll buy back when I see a trend reversal, not because of a number.

[hdbuck]

Anyone wants to be let in on a little secret?

Remember a month ago, maybe two? When 400 had everyone salivating? We basically never got *near* that number, except for the 2 flash crashes that pushed that deep simply because of momentum and panic.

What's the situation now? You going to buy at 400, for sure? 400 coins still make you drool?

I don't know how you guys trade, but if I drool over 400 coins, I sure as hell would start placing bids around 440....

...only that's not happening. Or at least not in sufficient strength. Here's a really pretty simple prediction: 400 will feel "normal" soon. Not cheap, but normal. And if the bear market really kicks in, it will start looking expensive, but that part I'm not going to claim with certainty.

Yeah. 300 is the new 400.

mehh and people use to say 400$ was cheap coins.. we'll see..

[zby]

It is past midnight in Beijin - have they already freezed those accounts - so that we can get over China (and the fake volumes)?

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I posted this about an hour before this fall:

The rise is weak and it will start falling fast again at 520 or earlier.
The current rise is weaker then the one that did 465-510, and that rise already had hard time sustaining itself.
When will you people learn, that sustainable rises won't just pop out of thin air. These short lived rises are created by individual whales who get bored and decide to gamble.
BTC won't be out of this slow downfall, until there will be any important news in BTC's favour. Right now, the general public isn't buying because of the trust issues created by MtGox. Only thing that keeps the price from an collapse, is the desperation of the hodlers and miners. And desperation keeping the price up, isn't exactly creating an attractive investment environment.

And I get replies like:

[nothing of value]

Respect. That was one of the fastest ignores I've handed out.

That said...

And to top it off, the same person also adds to his post:

If I were so inclined, I could find analogous quotes by disappointed bears during an uptrend just as easily, but since we're currently going down, bull tears will have to do...

Anyway, I realized there is a much better classification of market (and forum) participants than the conventional 'bulls' vs. 'bears':

Those who take the market and its decisions personal, and those who don't.

It's probably more or less identical to the trading mantra to leave emotions out of trading, but it never ceases to amaze me how angry and obstinate people in here become when price doesn't go the way they want it to go.

Don't get me wrong, I get incredibly frustrated as well if it turns out I read the market wrong, but at some point, you need to take in reality and adjust your model, no?

Some of you guys are really "special" here, aren't you...

[oda.krell]

Anyone wants to be let in on a little secret?

Remember a month ago, maybe two? When 400 had everyone salivating? We basically never got *near* that number, except for the 2 flash crashes that pushed that deep simply because of momentum and panic.

What's the situation now? You going to buy at 400, for sure? 400 coins still make you drool?

I don't know how you guys trade, but if I drool over 400 coins, I sure as hell would start placing bids around 440....

...only that's not happening. Or at least not in sufficient strength. Here's a really pretty simple prediction: 400 will feel "normal" soon. Not cheap, but normal. And if the bear market really kicks in, it will start looking expensive, but that part I'm not going to claim with certainty.

Oda, didn't you make that topic about the early March breakout? The one that turned out to be deceptive? I'm not saying that you are wrong this time, but I figure that you have your reasons for saying all this. I take it that you're still interested in trading BTC?

I've made several topics on the possible reversal. I started out skeptical (pointing out swap statistics on Finex). Then I defended the *possibility* of a reversal because of decent volume (just did so a few days ago again). All in all, the signs for a reversal that appeared in early March are, IMO, all but dead. There were so many signals for downwards momentum that I started liquidating pretty much all at around 600, and was done at 550.

I'm very much keeping my eyes open for signs of a new chance at a reversal, but so far, I see nothing like it. Maybe after we flush the looming China decision out of our system...

[magicmexican]

 "OKCoin pause prepaid card, bank transfer recharge card unaffected Dear OKCoin User: Because third-party payment card dealer just received notification mechanism to suspend payment channel, OKCoin will be at 0:00 on April 3 before stopping point card recharge, bank transfer recharge card unaffected yuan withdrawals unaffected give us apologize for the inconvenience."

[darklight]

Good point, oda.krell.

Someone here said that if $200 ever happens (and I don't think so), you won't want to buy.

OTOH I am surprised that, so far, only the western markets are dropping on Chinese news.

I'm not sure it's that easy...

That's another thing I thought about earlier today: a number of really reasonable forum members made claims in the past like "If we ever go back into the double digits, it will be on the way to zero", or "one thing we know for sure is that we never fall below the previous ATH".

Problem is, we have almost no data. We trade this mofo for a bit more than 3 years. All those "patterns" that are supposed to hold in all eternity (like the one that says we don't correct lower than previous ATH), we have 2, maybe 3 repetitions. As anyone with a bit of knowledge of statistics can tell you, that's nothing to work with. You can still use it as your best bet for trading (and I'm sure the previous ATH, if we go that low, would be a point of support), but the idea that it *never* can happen because it didn't happen *3 times* is ludicrous.

So maybe we go all the way back to 300. Maybe 200. Maybe below 100 (unlikely, but as always possible). I'll buy back when I see a trend reversal, not because of a number.

Totally agree. "Well it always rallied before to a new ATH, so it will again and we will see 1000% gains every year". Its obvious to anyone who does the maths that it can't keep having those gains every year forever

[magicmexican]

Now that volume makes sense if its actually confirmed by Okcoin.

[jonoiv]

i couldnt resist to buy more of these 12$ ltcs

same here

they do look attractive at $12

[ShroomsKit]

Is that moron Fonzie harrassing other people through PM as well?
Who the fuck is that guy?
This is pretty nuts. Trolling in this thread is one thing but actually sending private messages? Wtf?

[lynn_402]

Totally agree. "Well it always rallied before to a new ATH, so it will again and we will see 1000% gains every year". Its obvious to anyone who does the maths that it can't keep having those gains every year forever

Bitcoin has a lower market cap than Western Union. I don't get why people fail to see the potential there. 1000% gain seem very likely.