Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ElectricMucus]

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

And there we go. People are about to panic that 400 might fall so they are starting to sell.
It's a matter of waiting for the first 500+ sell and down we go. The sheep will go nuts.
350 within 12 hours is my worthless prediction.

Yes the $400 wall is likely to be tested to see if it's fake, real or there's hidden support we can't see. This would be a huge opportunity for a billionaire to accumulate a large position without slippage, but there may not be one or he's lurking in the depths. Retreat to $400 and hold the line, people. $401 if you want to make sure you get all your coins back. Sell any bounce and build that fucking wall. It's going to be a battle and we need every man we can get. If it breaches, the next stop is $266 and the next ATH will be delayed by months.  90% probability we'll drop to at least $401 at least once before trend reversal. 50% chance we'll hit $400 and 50% chance we'll go lower.

[aminorex]

Possible isn't the same as probable.

Pessimism isn't wisdom.  If you think there's a reason to assign low probability, that would be helpful to articulate.

We don't know how well capitalized many of these start-ups actually are.

True.  We do know how well capitalized several of them are, however.  It's very similar to the Internet in the 90s.  Stuff is all over the map.  That kind of diversity is messy, and healthy.  Some degree of confidence that the population will produce survivors is provided by large numbers.

We also don't know what could happen in the macroeconomy or regulatory environment that could stall a recovery. These are real risks even if they are not probabilities.

Ignorance is not risk.  Structural vulnerability is a source of risk, though.  Macro is going to go to hell in a hand-basket.  QE can mask the underlying cancer with a high fever, but the patient is still terminal.  That implies both volatility and a strong upward path for BTC.

The regulatory front is pricing-benign (freedom-malignant), but also it can be routed around.  Uncertainties here are few.

I think you underestimate the strength of the fundamental trend, and the inexorable power of the price attractors.  It's like if there were no reason for BTC to go up, one would have to be invented, just to keep the universe from annihilating itself with a contradiction.

Is there a fair chance of a sustained price dip?  Yes.  Do I think it will happen?  Not beyond my ability to manage the mark-to-market risk by trading the volatility.

[N12]

Retreat to $400 and hold the line, people. $401 if you want to make sure you get all your coins back. Sell any bounce and build that fucking wall. It's going to be a battle and we need every man we can get. If it breaches, the next stop is $266 and the next ATH will be delayed by months. 

This is not team sports. This is not war. This is every man for himself, and it is beautiful.

[magicmexican]

Now its finally looking like a proper crash - LTC getting rekt'd, btc-e overdumping instead of juts blindly following china.

The only thing missing is the volume

[MikeH]

I think people are just scared to put money into the exchanges.

[Hypnoise]

I'm only 15% long and I feel despair. I feel despair over the short that I covered at 490. I cannot even imagine the people who went all in, leveraged, or sold their house.

after 490 I sold 5 times. Of course it is crazy selling on lower price then you buy, but in such down trend it make sense as your next buy still better.

selling lower than bought. I never understood this concept. I call it losing money.

my aim is not accumulation of fiat but btc/ltc. even if I sale coins on lower price, then I purchased it on even lower price and more coins, because of down trend with each sale/buy cycle number of coins increasing. Because coins become cheaper. That way accumulating coins rather then holding same amount of coins. Do some maths before jumping into conclusion. Later during the spike coins sold and you left in fiat, that time you can see difference by selling for example 10 coins or 15 coins.

[Hypnoise]

I think people are just scared to put money into the exchanges.

I don't think so, judging by trade volumes.

[windjc]

Now its finally looking like a proper crash - LTC getting rekt'd, btc-e overdumping instead of juts blindly following china.

The only thing missing is the volume

Volume has been missing for weeks. That's the problem. No buyers. You have to have buyers and sellers for volume. Sellers are in attendance.

On that note, I predict we get another healthy bounce between $403-$409.  This will probably send us up again, squeezing a few shorts. I don't think we will get up past $475 (300 Daily EMA now acting like resistance). But where ever we bounce to, we will be coming back down a day or three after that to make a real attack on $400.

Once we go through $400, I expect we get another bounce before $380. Rinse and repeat.

Unless some real buyers show up, we will be going below that before the 15th, in my opinion.

[bangersdad]

this is a very very dangerous market to be trading ... the latent demand is everywhere like an abundance of ions in the air before a thunderstorm, it could materialise a deluge from seemingly nowhere.

the world is primed for a new monetary medium, that is what has driven bitcoin this far already. Those who are dismissive of bitcoin as a super bubble are lost because they have no chart to compare. We have never seen a  collectible become monetised into a global medium of exchange, there are no charts to compare it with.

You trade this beast at your peril. It is a binary outcome. You're either in or out. For sure traders are gonna get burnt, badly.

Those are beautiful words my friend...almost bought a tear to my eye.

anyone who is dismissive of bitcoin has probably never owned or spent one...the price does nothing to change my concrete belief in bitcoin, in fact i am feeling like a weight has lifted from my shoulders with this correction.

[JayJuanGee]

Possibilities for bitcoin going to zero: a flaw in the code is found and exploited. Something on the mining end. Nuclear war, asteroids, global ebola pandemic, something on the mining end, sha256 getting cracked, etc. Probability of any of these things happening <0.1%.

Possibilities for Bitcoin going below $10: Satoshi's stash getting dumped on the market, outright criminal ban on owning bitcoin in several Western countries, Bitstamp and at least one other major exchange getting hacked to the point of insolvency, FBI coins AND Bitcoin investment Trust AND Winklevoss stash all liquidated, or >ten major early adopter whales liquidating their entire stashes. probability of any of these things happening: <1%

Possibility of bitcoin retreating to April 2013 high of $266:  $400 support doesn't hold when all Chinese exchanges stop taking deposits, China bans bitcoin ownership and trading altogether, U.S. stockmarket crash/correction that dries up Silicone Valley money, Coinbase folds, etc. Probability: ~40%

Possibility of trend reversal without whales: 1%. with whales: ~40%

Possibility that Bitcoin goes to $10,000 this year: hyperinflation in the U.S. Dollar, major currency or banking crisis in a large economy with Bitcoin as a major player in evading capital controls or inflation hedging, Google, Facebook, Microsoft or other major tech company fully embraces bitcoin, investing billions. Probability: ~5%.

Possibility of spontaneous mass adoption this year with no major media campaign or sea change in media coverage: zero. Next year, maybe. Movements need leaders.

I'm loaded in BTC and mostly holding, but it could get really really ugly. again.

Great breakdown, even though I do NOT agree with a few of your numbers, but that is quibbling... b/c your outline helps consideration of the matter.

Regarding your stash... what's your average BTC buy-in price?  Probably in the $300s?  or less?  Mine is mid-$600s with a stash of only 49-ish.... I have other investments as well.. but I am anticipating continuing to buy on a regular basis to slowly increase my stash.. if BTC price goes down, my stash will go up more...   

Usually, I am NOT too lucky with trades, but having lucky trades brings up the quantity of BTC and brings down the average cost per BTC... .. but like I said my track record is NOT too great in the trading arena...   so I have to rely more on HODL and attempted strategic buying.

[JayJuanGee]

I'm only 15% long and I feel despair. I feel despair over the short that I covered at 490. I cannot even imagine the people who went all in, leveraged, or sold their house.

after 490 I sold 5 times. Of course it is crazy selling on lower price then you buy, but in such down trend it make sense as your next buy still better.

selling lower than bought. I never understood this concept. I call it losing money.

SELL lower than you had bought, but then buy back in lower than you sold.. I believe that is the point in which money is made... and brings down your price per BTC..

[KeyserSoze]

I am wondering if we get close to $400, will the wall disappear? If so, will it look like an Hieronymus Bosch painting around here?

[windjc]

I am wondering if we get close to $400, will the wall disappear? If so, will it look like an Hieronymus Bosch painting around here?

Good question on both accounts. I think if the former happens, the latter will also occur.

That wall is really strange to me. It is suspicious. But does that person really think that 5000 btc will deter the bears? So, I am going with real.

[JayJuanGee]

If we break $400, we're poo'd.

But if China news is not as bad as feared, and/or news comes out and $400 holds...I'd feel good about chances to reverse the trend.

So basically people are panic selling because of a rumour of an event that may take the price down which results in the price going down and when it goes below a certain point the panic sellers will panic sell because the price went down too much. And what do you do when the price goes down a lot? You make sure it goes down even more.
Sounds like a smart group of people.

I am feeling pretty optimistic and fairly confident that we are NOT going to go below $400, absent some fairly major additional negative news.  BUT... what the fuck do I know.. just going based on an overall hunch, more or less like others.. though I am NO whale.. and whales have more ability to affect this than us minnows (as mentioned by BillyJoeAllen)

[rpietila]

Volume has been missing for weeks. That's the problem. No buyers. You have to have buyers and sellers for volume. Sellers are in attendance.

Buyers may be missing because Gox showed that it is not risk-free to send cash to exchanges. (The centralized exchange model is utter idiocy and something needs to be done.) Sellers are missing because there is not so much selling pressure really. Who wants to sell cheaply when all indicators point up in anything longer than 1 month timescale..

On that note, I predict we get another healthy bounce between $403-$409.  This will probably send us up again, squeezing a few shorts. I don't think we will get up past $475 (300 Daily EMA now acting like resistance). But where ever we bounce to, we will be coming back down a day or three after that to make a real attack on $400.

Once we go through $400, I expect we get another bounce before $380. Rinse and repeat.

Unless some real buyers show up, we will be going below that before the 15th, in my opinion.

Okay, I go to my castle with probably no Internet access (deliberate holiday) for the rest of the week. I agree with you in the analysis in other counts, but in my opinion 375 will hold more probably than not

[JayJuanGee]

And there we go. People are about to panic that 400 might fall so they are starting to sell.
It's a matter of waiting for the first 500+ sell and down we go. The sheep will go nuts.
350 within 12 hours is my worthless prediction.

YES>>> YOU are correct .. worthless, b/c you are NOT willing to wager anything on that CRAP.  Shows a lack of confidence and in inclination for FUD

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[dreamspark]

Possibilities for bitcoin going to zero: a flaw in the code is found and exploited. Something on the mining end. Nuclear war, asteroids, global ebola pandemic, something on the mining end, sha256 getting cracked, etc. Probability of any of these things happening <0.1%.

Possibilities for Bitcoin going below $10: Satoshi's stash getting dumped on the market, outright criminal ban on owning bitcoin in several Western countries, Bitstamp and at least one other major exchange getting hacked to the point of insolvency, FBI coins AND Bitcoin investment Trust AND Winklevoss stash all liquidated, or >ten major early adopter whales liquidating their entire stashes. probability of any of these things happening: <1%

Possibility of bitcoin retreating to April 2013 high of $266:  $400 support doesn't hold when all Chinese exchanges stop taking deposits, China bans bitcoin ownership and trading altogether, U.S. stockmarket crash/correction that dries up Silicone Valley money, Coinbase folds, etc. Probability: ~40%

Possibility of trend reversal without whales: 1%. with whales: ~40%

Possibility that Bitcoin goes to $10,000 this year: hyperinflation in the U.S. Dollar, major currency or banking crisis in a large economy with Bitcoin as a major player in evading capital controls or inflation hedging, Google, Facebook, Microsoft or other major tech company fully embraces bitcoin, investing billions. Probability: ~5%.

Possibility of spontaneous mass adoption this year with no major media campaign or sea change in media coverage: zero. Next year, maybe. Movements need leaders.

I'm loaded in BTC and mostly holding, but it could get really really ugly. again.

Great breakdown, even though I do NOT agree with a few of your numbers, but that is quibbling... b/c your outline helps consideration of the matter.

Regarding your stash... what's your average BTC buy-in price?  Probably in the $300s?  or less?  Mine is mid-$600s with a stash of only 49-ish.... I have other investments as well.. but I am anticipating continuing to buy on a regular basis to slowly increase my stash.. if BTC price goes down, my stash will go up more...   

Usually, I am NOT too lucky with trades, but having lucky trades brings up the quantity of BTC and brings down the average cost per BTC... .. but like I said my track record is NOT too great in the trading arena...   so I have to rely more on HODL and attempted strategic buying.

His average buy in will be in single digits maybe mid double digits as are a lot of the people who have been around for a while. Hell I only started buying in summer 2013 but with a bit of trading and selling a nice chunk over $1000 even my average buy in is double digits. There are many here that will have taken out their original investment and be sitting in free coins. This is obvious by the way people speak. Its obvious when someone is sitting on a $30,000 investment that is currently worth closer to $20,000. The panic is obvious as they keep saying they're buying on the way down and they do not see it going any lower. Although I would like to see a rise again Im more than happy for the blood in the streets and the chance to pick up some really cheap BTC again. Its mainly noobs and dreamers who bought BTC anywhere near $1200 and most will have sold on the way down. The upside then is clear and obvious but I do feel a bloodbath will ensue in the meantime.