Random hopium from PlanB.
This guy hasn't secretly abandoned the Stock to Flow idea.
He's betting for a revival sooner or later.
TLDR; Same thing cAPS always types.I remember back last year when almost everyone who now has completely disowned PlanB was also saying we would "see 100k by 12/25", which he was also saying.
I am a unabashed perma-bull. But I am also someone that knows we are in a sort of market chaos not seen for many decades, and perhaps ever. Also that prediction stunk from the beginning. No bitcoinner would have been disappointed. But the two arbitrary data points were so lame. 100k? The roundest mega target of all? 12/31/2021? The last day of the year? Also an obvious psychological magnet.
I also remember a sort of pre-spaces meetup show with Marty Bent, Matt ODell, Bitcoin TINA, and several other BTC Twitter luminaries where the ONLY person there who was not saying something like it would be 500k by the "end of the year" was TINA. And what he predicted was pretty close to what we have seen. That it would pull back into this year, and then make another run. Obviously we are waiting on that other half of the prediction.
From here there are several possible paths but some notable ones:
We can follow the typical 4 year market cycle:This one holds more weight now than I gave it last year for sure. But there are so many caveats that I still am not convinced. (does not really matter as I will not trade anything either way.. only buy). We had a "top: in the cycle unlike any other we have seen. A double top (BITCOIN IS DEAD!). And then a price meltdown early in the cycle seeming driven by the latest round of shitcoinery, and geopolitical and macroeconomic forces never seen before. Some of what is happening in the world right now would fundamentally drive BTC higher, but a strengthening dollar (on it's deathbed) and all the DeFi nonsense blowing up tripped us up. But if this theory holds true we will see the next bull run commence somewhere in 2023 and continue into 2024 possibly.
The cycle theory falls and we see another run in what should be this cycles bear market:This is what I have been expecting. But I did not expect we would see as deep a pullback as we have, so that makes the chances of this much smaller than before. But I still think it is a contender. I believe the shitcoinners gave large investors a heyday opportunity to load up on Bitcoin. If this IS happening, it is mostly in the dark. For example... it does not look like the Whale who moved coins to CB sold them on the market (lol right). But he would really only have two reasons to do this. 1. Transfer custody to CB (bad idea) or 2. Sell (or some more complex arrangement?) these coins to a bidder(s) via CB's OTC desk. Actually there is a third reason. These coins already have a connection to Coinbase. Not that they BELONG to CB necessarily. But maybe they are collateral from a large whale who has back them from early on? There are a lot of rumblings about CB becoming insolvent. Not a strech with Armstrongs love of all things shitcoiney, a stupid DeFi things. Could this be related?
Anyway. I respect PlanB for continuing to provide interesting analysis in spite of the fact he takes so much heat from all the people who were sycophants before. I have never been a fan of the S2F idea. Not in a religious way at least. I find it dubious. Too much of a "test tube idea". In other words you need perfect market conditions for it to not occasionally go orders of magnitude off track. And we MOST CERTAINLY are not in perfect market conditions right now. The USD in uncharted territory. The world well into the 3rd world war without most even knowing it. And bitcoin itself. A giant unknown to the vast majority of the human race. Very few even begin to understand why it is important.
Even though I continue to think the S2F chart is fairly silly... i would be delighted if we rip up in a way that basically re-validates it temporarily. Like Musk has said (about DOGE lol)... sometimes the universe does the funniest thing. Obviously the other reason I would like this is it means something like 1/4MM corn. So yeah... long shot at best. Still... I am more than 50% sure this "cycle" is not going to be like the others. It already has not been, and I bet there are still surprises in store.
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