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Question: When will BTC get back above $70K:
7/14 - 0 (0%)
7/21 - 1 (0.8%)
7/28 - 11 (9.1%)
8/4 - 16 (13.2%)
8/11 - 7 (5.8%)
8/18 - 6 (5%)
8/25 - 8 (6.6%)
After August - 72 (59.5%)
Total Voters: 121

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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26485207 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
adamstgBit
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April 03, 2014, 11:18:24 PM

the dead bull img is repulsive
fonzie
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April 03, 2014, 11:18:57 PM

Everyone is followin huobi, 50 BTC get bought over there, he lures people in to buy into his 500-600BTC sell order, makes sense?
Happened with Gox before.(Pump on Gox - sell on Stamp)

pump and dump... I know what it is. It only works in stagnant markets.

If you are trying to tell me that China is a stagnant market then you better cover your shorts quick




It´s not a real pump and dump, i don´t trust any of the data from Huobi.
With Gox it turned out that most of the trades never actually happened, and most of the data was fake as fuck.
Huobi could work the same way. If chinese coins would have to be slowly sold on western exchanges for a "fair" price, this tactic would work out.
I´m just speculatin of course.
One of my earliest posts in here has been about this special Gox tactics, (i got bashed of course), but it turned out to be true.
mah87
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April 03, 2014, 11:22:57 PM

the dead bull img is repulsive

It's your opinion, I made this BBQ on last sunday
igorr
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April 03, 2014, 11:27:22 PM

A big dark Bear coming.
cee-euros
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April 03, 2014, 11:27:57 PM

So proud of bitstamp for not being herded into that wall.
fonzie
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April 03, 2014, 11:30:07 PM

A big dark Bear coming.

JayJuanGee
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April 03, 2014, 11:31:48 PM



Thanks for your elaborate post, nice to see you have chosen to buy at a lot of different prices.
It seems your average buy price is not too high.


In that post, I only provided my buys for the last two months (February and March). 

In about mid-November 2013, I was involved in a fairly informative discussion about BTC, in which the other person was bragging about his BTC return rates, and suggesting that I may need it as a hedge against the dollar. 

I agreed with him that I was too overly invested in the dollar, and I reminded him that past performance of the BTC asset did NOT guarantee future results.  He sounded a bit naive in his various views of the world including his expectations specifically regarding the direction of BTC; however, his enthusiasm and his various technical knowledge of the subject got me to agree that I would research into the matter.  I believe that he had bought in around $30 or something like that.

Anyhow, he triggered my interest to research into BTC b/c I do NOT like to jump into anything too quickly before I kind of have some ideas about it.... and by the time I was getting more informed the price was skyrocketting.  Accordingly, I began my investment at about $1200.  I wanted to get some skin in the game, but I remained skeptical about putting in too much money at that price point. 

So, currently, my average price point is about $644 per BTC (including various transaction fees).



I have not been buying continously, because I do not want to pass the point where I am overdedicated into BTC (where I would lose sleep over its price dropping or rising).


BTC is NOT my only investment, either.  I have a variety of stock index funds and then I have some quasi-passive income from business (sometimes NOT as passive as I would prefer). 

We may be of a fairly similar philosophy regarding NOT wanting to preoccupy ourselves too much with our investment(s).   Since I got into BTC after a fairly major bull run, that timing has caused me to be a lot more attentive to BTC prices and issues than I would have been if I would have entered at a different time. 

There is a sort of tension and balancing that has existed throughout my investment into BTC, and that is the desire to get some skin in the game, and the desire to attempt to buy at the lowest price (however, I did NOT want to wait around to buy, in the event that BTC prices were to move up to some next level and were not to return to current prices).  Accordingly, I continued to buy with this in mind.  Surely, if I had had a fairly high level of confidence that BTC prices would lower to any specific price point, then I would have waited for that price lowest price point and bought a higher portion of my BTC at that lower price point.




My funds are allocated in different currencies (not only Crypto, though I believe this is the future).

I have NOT really invested into any currencies, and only a few of the alt crypto currencies in very small levels (less than 5% of my total crypto currency portfolio is in alt cryptos)




To protect myself from my itchy triggerfinger buying more BTC I've set my next buy at 400 or below, discipline makes or breaks good trades Smiley

YES.  I do the same about setting a price point to buy, and maybe it would be better to have a larger spread.  Currently, I am thinking below $430 is my next buy price point; however, maybe I would still feel comfortable to set that buy price point at $420?  I do allow my buy price point to fluctuate somewhat with the passage of time - maybe NOT the greatest strategy in the world, but allows me to accumulate BTC, which is part of my goal (I'm at about 49BTC, currently - that's including the floating value of my alts).




fonzie
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April 03, 2014, 11:32:01 PM

So proud of bitstamp for not being herded into that wall.

herded by who?

stamps is clearly leading

Adam,  i love you and you´re the only reason beside Silkroad why i have some love left for BTC.
BUT BITSTAMP IS FOLLOWIN EVERY MOVE MADE BY MAO AND HIS BUDDYS!
cee-euros
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April 03, 2014, 11:39:22 PM

So proud of bitstamp for not being herded into that wall.

herded by who?

stamps is clearly leading
'the farmer'
 
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April 03, 2014, 11:40:19 PM



It looks like a bottom. Right place, right time, right fundamentals. too many greedy bears want sub 400, but they have to argue with each-others profit targets as well as this almighty wedge line.

The positive forces driving bitcoin outweigh any catastrophe it has ever faced 100:1






Breaking down out of the triangle would not be a catastrophe. It just means that bitcoin prices would most likely be lower for a while and the odds of bitcoin being 10k a piece in the next year are greatly diminished.
JayJuanGee
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April 03, 2014, 11:41:21 PM

Never forget:

Bitstamp:


Whole bid volume
11,146,031.76 USD

Ratio
1 : 2.83


Bitfinex:

Total sum of active swaps
USD    15,794,084.87 USD

 Smiley




Do you have buy orders set with your shorts Fonzie or do you have an number you are waiting for?

I´m long term shorting.

25% will be closed @360
25%  "                 @310
25% "                  @250
25% "                   @200

stop loss for my shorts is actually @ 519

I have my shorts scattered from 426 - 406 at $2 intervals.  If figured the market would peck away from $425-$400 and swing back up a few times. So the market closed out 5 of my 10 positions last night. Before I went to bed, I then open 3 more shorts at each of the 3 Fib retracement levels. I woke up, two were hit, one missed by a $1.

So its rinse and repeat for me until we get to 405ish - where I expect we will have a final battle. I'll decide where to go from there.


That makes more sense that your numbers would be more reasonable with phased in reassessments, otherwise, seems like pie in the sky aspirations.




cee-euros
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April 03, 2014, 11:42:18 PM

So proud of bitstamp for not being herded into that wall.

herded by who?

stamps is clearly leading

Adam,  i love you and you´re the only reason beside Silkroad why i have some love left for BTC.
BUT BITSTAMP IS FOLLOWIN EVERY MOVE MADE BY MAO AND HIS BUDDYS!
This happened yesterday just before the crash,  the market got pumped to 500, so many pigs got slaughtered.
Which means 'the farmer' had insider knowledge about the announcements
JayJuanGee
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April 03, 2014, 11:46:13 PM


stop loss for my shorts is actually @ 519

Thats not what I'd call long term shorting. 519 will be too easy to break.

I would put the odds quite a bit greater that we would hit $519 before we would hit $399.  I do NOT really know a lot about lines and such, and just predicting from a sort of amateur feeling.
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April 03, 2014, 11:47:47 PM

the dead bull img is repulsive
Ya really, I was just getting ready to go eat dinner when I decided to check thread,,,  gross!  Undecided
JayJuanGee
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April 03, 2014, 11:59:23 PM


very good summary
we've been getting it in bits and pieces as the news's came in
some traders here have reported they are not willing to trade with such uncertainty in the air, so i think we have pretty much priced out china now.

DOES NOT appear to me that China is out.  It appears that there remain various avenues to keep their BTC trades going,  so does NOT really seem that currently we have many more reasons for BTC prices to be continuing to fall. 

Are we just experiencing continued sentiments of uncertainty to see how these various restriction implementations play out through April 15 to see if there are any more surprises related to the application and implementation of these various restrictions?

I still blame downward BTC price pressures in part on the FUD being a tool of manipulation in an atmosphere where BTC is easy to put on the exchanges to force selling and then buying taking place off of the exchanges with the deflated prices.... rinse and repeat...  whales purposefully lose money on exchanges in order to be able to buy cheaper outside of exchanges.
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April 04, 2014, 12:02:32 AM

If we break out to new daily highs here, its gonna be a MASSIVE green candle....popcorn ready
fonzie
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April 04, 2014, 12:03:27 AM



I still blame downward BTC price pressures in part on the FUD being a tool of manipulation in an atmosphere where BTC is easy to put on the exchanges to force selling and then buying taking place off of the exchanges with the deflated prices.... rinse and repeat...  whales purposefully lose money on exchanges in order to be able to buy cheaper outside of exchanges.

Do you have any data to prove this assumption or are you just pulling it out of your ass?
Do you also assume that lizards have control over the government?

 Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy Cheesy

(no offense)
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April 04, 2014, 12:05:47 AM

If we break out to new daily highs here, its gonna be a MASSIVE green candle....popcorn ready

It doesn´t look like it´s about to take off.  Angry
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April 04, 2014, 12:08:35 AM

It doesn´t look like it´s about to take off.  Angry

Popcorn still ready...whatever happens will be exciting
cee-euros
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April 04, 2014, 12:12:12 AM

8 am in china. quick bowl of rice, then selling
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