Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[EuroTrash]

Comparing 1D volume trends Huobi vs Stamp, it looks like this rally is, once more, Chinese led.

[Hypnoise]

Hello all, long time without posting here. Are the bears gone finally? Time for bulls to show up?

I'm feeling a little bullish...

sure, but the bull at the moment appears to be rather unhealthy thin

[nrd525]

The volume on stamp is tiny.  it's not big on btc-e.

Like it or not Huobi and Chinese exchanges are dictating the price movements.  There are plenty that don't want to sleep on BTC.  it's 21:37 in China as i write. As others have pointed out it's a national holiday.

I think there is about a 3 hour window before a bigger dump starts.  

Just my opinion...

Bobby Lee, BTC-China CEO, says that most of the Chinese volume is faked.

[aminorex]

It's been bouncing off that line since 12th Dec.
...there is strong resistance on this line.

There is a classical TA rationale for establishing horizontal support/resistance levels where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  There is no rationale evident for establishing a descending (or ascending) support/resistance level where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  If you have such a rationale, please do share it.  It would quite an innovation in technical analysis.

[aminorex]

Descending bounds back to 26 Mar have now been broken (reset).

[octaft]

Rpiella sounding statement, true none the less

rpietila statements are among the most reliable guides for the perplexed seeking to profit from btc prices.  they do require patience.

I would recommend the perplexed not trade before I recommend they take advice from some random on the internet.

[billyjoeallen]

Volume is nonexistent.

[EuroTrash]

Bobby Lee, BTC-China CEO, says that most of the Chinese volume is faked.

It likely is. That is why I look at how it is trending not what the absolute numbers are.

[jonoiv]

It's been bouncing off that line since 12th Dec.
...there is strong resistance on this line.

There is a classical TA rationale for establishing horizontal support/resistance levels where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  There is no rationale evident for establishing a descending (or ascending) support/resistance level where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  If you have such a rationale, please do share it.  It would quite an innovation in technical analysis.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/supportresistancereversal.asp

[aminorex]

It's been bouncing off that line since 12th Dec.
...there is strong resistance on this line.

There is a classical TA rationale for establishing horizontal support/resistance levels where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  There is no rationale evident for establishing a descending (or ascending) support/resistance level where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  If you have such a rationale, please do share it.  It would quite an innovation in technical analysis.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/supportresistancereversal.asp

You will please notice that all of their examples are either horizontal levels (touched from both sides) or diagonal levels (touched from one side).  The rationales in the horizontal and the diagonal cases are different.  The rationale in the horizontal case gains support by reversals from either direction.  The rationale in the diagonal case does not.

[EuroTrash]

Volume is nonexistent.

The market makers are sleeping. It's middle of the night in their timezone...

[jonoiv]

It's been bouncing off that line since 12th Dec.
...there is strong resistance on this line.

There is a classical TA rationale for establishing horizontal support/resistance levels where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  There is no rationale evident for establishing a descending (or ascending) support/resistance level where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  If you have such a rationale, please do share it.  It would quite an innovation in technical analysis.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/supportresistancereversal.asp

You will please notice that all of their examples are either horizontal levels (touched from both sides) or diagonal levels (touched from one side).  The rationales in the horizontal and the diagonal cases are different.  The rationale in the horizontal case gains support by reversals from either direction.  The rationale in the diagonal case does not.

maybe you need some glasses!

[LMGTFY]

It's been bouncing off that line since 12th Dec.
...there is strong resistance on this line.

There is a classical TA rationale for establishing horizontal support/resistance levels where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  There is no rationale evident for establishing a descending (or ascending) support/resistance level where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  If you have such a rationale, please do share it.  It would quite an innovation in technical analysis.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/supportresistancereversal.asp

You will please notice that all of their examples are either horizontal levels (touched from both sides) or diagonal levels (touched from one side).  The rationales in the horizontal and the diagonal cases are different.  The rationale in the horizontal case gains support by reversals from either direction.  The rationale in the diagonal case does not.

maybe you need some glasses!

Me too, I guess There's one example of a diagonal, and the only repeated tests are on the support side - resistance is only tested once. What am I missing?

[igorr]

15.april coming soon

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/latest/china-clamps-down-on-bitcoin/story-e6frg90f-1226871648275

[jonoiv]

It's been bouncing off that line since 12th Dec.
...there is strong resistance on this line.

There is a classical TA rationale for establishing horizontal support/resistance levels where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  There is no rationale evident for establishing a descending (or ascending) support/resistance level where the price touches from both sides repeatedly.  If you have such a rationale, please do share it.  It would quite an innovation in technical analysis.

http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/06/supportresistancereversal.asp

You will please notice that all of their examples are either horizontal levels (touched from both sides) or diagonal levels (touched from one side).  The rationales in the horizontal and the diagonal cases are different.  The rationale in the horizontal case gains support by reversals from either direction.  The rationale in the diagonal case does not.

maybe you need some glasses!

Me too, I guess There's one example of a diagonal, and the only repeated tests are on the support side - resistance is only tested once. What am I missing?

It bounced off again after the picture was produced on 14th July..   before breaking again.

You're not missing anything.. he asked for an example and I gave it.

[aminorex]

You're not missing anything.. he asked for an example and I gave it.

Actually, I'm not asking for an example.  I'm asking for a rationale.  The article does not provide one.

You could construct a rationale from a collection of examples, using statistical reasoning.  I am not aware of this ever having been done successfully for the pattern which you are drawing upon.

A mere configuration of lines has no predictive value.  A configuration of lines which illustrates the potential for a rationale to be applicable in a given case does have predictive value.  It would be based on reality.  The certainty of it might even be measurable.  

[Guinpen]

I don't get what's happening. There was a brief spike yesterday around midnight (Europe), then it fell back down during the day, and it's up to 460 again at the moment. All while the Chinese are supposedly either sleeping or on holiday.

Does the collective wisdom of this thread (not being sarcastic here) predict another fall to ~440 in the next 24 hours, or are we slowly chooing to the moon already?

[LMGTFY]

It bounced off again after the picture was produced on 14th July..   before breaking again.

You're not missing anything.. he asked for an example and I gave it.

OK, but... this graph extends to September, and I'm still not seeing the resistance being tested after the initial (post-dip) test: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/DJ/2006/9/linewchart.html. (My interest in this is that I've always assumed diagonal support lines were "special cases" and assumptions are always worth reassessing - so an example showing that diagonals behave like horizontals would be a good start for my reassessment).

[virtualfaqs]

Martingalers lose their entire stash all the time on just-dice.com.   I'm not sure what the record is for losing 50/50 bets in a row, but it is something very high like 15+.

must be more

go in the casino and u have about 0.003% chance to lose 15 in a row and thats not a very small chance

Is there a betting limit there?

[jonoiv]

It bounced off again after the picture was produced on 14th July..   before breaking again.

You're not missing anything.. he asked for an example and I gave it.

OK, but... this graph extends to September, and I'm still not seeing the resistance being tested after the initial (post-dip) test: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/historical/DJ/2006/9/linewchart.html. (My interest in this is that I've always assumed diagonal support lines were "special cases" and assumptions are always worth reassessing - so an example showing that diagonals behave like horizontals would be a good start for my reassessment).

I'm not really arguing the case that much that the resistance line will become a support line.  Just saying there have been examples in the past.  I'm happy to buy if we break this line strongly.  

But that resistance line that has been there since December, it's still valid.  And all exchanges are pushing against it now.

As the trend is slowly downwards the longer it touches it without breaking through the more, chance there is for a further sell off.  Why would someone watch their coins slowly devalue?  And the MACD will also be a factor the longer we sit on this line without breaking it.