It is quite unlikely that the amounts would get any higher if I am involved in the bet, but if other members want to get into our bet, then the amounts could get higher, and maybe even we could reach gallianooo's wish for a 1 BTC bet, but really I am suspecting that he is proposing a 1 BTC bet because he is trying to get out of actually making a real bet.. .that's my tentative speculation why he proposed (I was going to say "that dweeb" but I will be nicer, for the moment in order to keep the dialogue open.. . hahahahaha) a 1 BTC bet amount. blablabla.
JJG...
You really speak TOO MUCH,
Tell me something that I have not heard 100,000 times before.
and you are moving around...
That's not true. I was not initially prepared to solidify anything in the lower ranges, but I did give you a $14k number.. so maybe you are just having troubles following.. so I cannot really blame uie-pooie for that.
I will say that the more that we speak about this, it does seem that I am potentially narrowing down into three possible bet proposals from my end that involve your pre-April 1 date. As I largely stated in
my earlier post:
1) I give you 4/1 on sub $10k
2) I give you 2/1 on sub $13k
3) we do 1/1 on sub $15k (I had not previously agreed to this, but I would be willing to bet against sub $15k as a 1/1 for funzies.
You could agree to any one of them or all three of them. Of course, each one would require the agreed to bet amounts, but I would be willing to back mine as long as the bet amounts were 100k satoshis-ish.. so then in that scenario my payouts would be 100k/200k/400k for each of the three if each of the three was to happen (so if all three were entered, I would have to put up 700k satoshis), but you would have to put up 100 for each of the three or any of the three that you choose.
Yes, i said 10%+ chance for 10K$ below and obv. we dont have the bottom yet.
Whoaza!!!!! There you go. Returning to outrageous language. It is not obvious that our bottom is not in, even if it might potentially be greater than 50/50 that our bottom is not in, so the fact that you use such strong language seems that we could arrive at bettable term for lower price thresholds, but you would probably have to give me odds.. especially since you believe it is so damned obvious that our bottom is not in. What kind of odds would you give me on staying above $17,593? 20 to 1? If you think that it is obvious, it should not be a problem for you to give me decently high odds on that, no? If that number is too extreme, we might be able to work on a number that involves whether the bottom is in or not... since you think that it is "obviously" not in, and I don't agree with that kind of bullshit absolutist kind of language that you are spouting out and then you back off from it if I want you to back it up with more than just absolutist cock-sure rhetoric.
Then YOU started to talk for a bet. You talked as well about 14K$, then bit more, but not on the 16-17K$. I just did an average of what you said (16.5+14)/2=15,250
Averaging makes little sense, and hopefully you can appreciate my reservations.. and hopefully you can also appreciate that some of the value in betting comes from when the parties are betting on the extremes of their assertions and beliefs if such extremes happen to exist. If we largely see the world very similar and without too much difference in terms of probabilities, then there is nothing that is really bettable there. On the other hand, from my perspective, you keep using strong language, but then when it comes down to details, then we can see that our opinions might not be as different as you seem to be wanting to make them out to be - especially if you are not standing behind the more extreme variations that you seem to be verbally asserting on a fairly regular basis - and attributing me to being the opposite of your more "realistic" view of the BTC price dynamics world.
We are both in BTC since almost 8 years or more.
At the end of November I will be at 9 years for my starting date, even though it did take me about a year to build up my BTC position and to start to feel as if I had more or less established a ballpark of what I thought was going to be my target stake.
Come on, we are not at the kinder garden to bet the snack break...
Fuck off with your trying to act like a big baller nonsense. I already provided plenty of reason why I am likely not going to bet beyond around 100 satoshis - per bet - and sure if there is a multiplier in there or multiple ways to frame the bet, then I might be willing to add variables or to structure various bets (perhaps?), then the amount could end up adding up to more, and sure there might be some guys willing to bet larger amounts with you on terms that you would like, but we have not quite narrowed down the other terms anyhow.
I'm quite disappointed of what you said after being kind of swagger but wants to bet some peanuts.
Well, if we work out the terms, there might be someone who might be wiling to bet you on the same terms with a higher amount. If you keep going on about this point, it sounds to me that you are trying to find some reason to weasel out of the bet.. rather than really trying to figure out some possible agreeable terms. Let's say that we bet this time, then maybe we would be able to bet again in the future with larger amounts.. but I am not going to starty getting distracted by amounts.. .. in order to prove something that is not necessary to prove (well, not for me anyhow..
you fuck).
So maybe next time, stay away on these kinds of affirmation and proposition.
Have a good one'
I guess you are a weasel. I think that I have proposed largely reasonable terms to attempt to capture where our differences might lay.. to the extent that we have material and potential differences that go beyond mere words (semantics).
Poll
