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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26371886 times)
This is a self-moderated topic. If you do not want to be moderated by the person who started this topic, create a new topic. (174 posts by 3 users with 9 merit deleted.)
ImThour
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October 01, 2022, 12:46:36 PM

Hi bitcoiners!

Here is a trendline which Bitcoin is respecting since the start of downtrend.
Anything massive is about to happen before 18th, Oct.

The chart pattern is a Triangle which comes under Neutral Chart Patterns.

1D Trendline:


Closer Look:
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philipma1957
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October 01, 2022, 12:46:56 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1)

Saylor's buying, so you can be sure the price absolutely will not sustain itself above $20k. We'll be below $19k next week as the world continues to offload this particularly useless risk asset in the midst of a financial crisis that only fiat can save us from. Hop on the USD lifeboat before it's too late.

Followed Proudhon and went USD baby!!  

The dollar is whaling

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October 01, 2022, 12:54:10 PM
Merited by vapourminer (1), xhomerx10 (1), Hueristic (1), OutOfMemory (1)

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October 01, 2022, 01:03:25 PM


Explanation
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October 01, 2022, 01:05:00 PM
Merited by nutildah (2)



I so wanted her ,her daughter and Demi Moore to do

"GI Jane II the slappening"
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October 01, 2022, 01:14:42 PM
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Source: https://twitter.com/DaveTaylorNews/status/1576137253734076418

Credit Suisse seems likely. If true more pain ahead in October.  Undecided
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October 01, 2022, 02:03:25 PM


Explanation
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October 01, 2022, 02:17:12 PM
Merited by ImThour (1)


Do you see 2014 and 2018? It's red. 2022 is almost same as 2018, same MA crosses leading it to reach 200 WMA.
Congratulations on Tetra one. 1111

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October 01, 2022, 03:04:54 PM


Explanation
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October 01, 2022, 03:34:02 PM

It's been 75% of 2022, which is the year of Bear Market.

Q1: Distribution at top.
Q2: Big red candle (FED increase rates, LUNA crash + Big startups/companies collapsed )
Q3: Sideway (ETH the Merge, Tesla sold BTC)

Let's start Q4.

From history experience:
+ BTC went very cheap after 1 year from the top of last cycle (Q4 2022)
+ Good time for HOLD is 1 year before the next halving (Q2 2023)
+ Bear zone + Accumulation zone is good time to train yourself (TA + FA)

Information source: https://t.me/CryptoRoseChannel/9676

Zoom out a wee bit.

Establish yourself a longer term investment plan into BTC of 4-10 years or longer, and perhaps some form of front load accumulating, and sure you can take some other various individual strategies, but stop thinking that you will buy in and cash out in a year, even though that could be a subportion of your plan that would hopefully not involve all of the BTC that you have accumulated.

I understand that there can be a lot of ways to invest and even to go about accumulation of value in an investment portfolio; however, one of the best ways seems to be to continue to stack value in longer term value assets, such as bitcoin.. and it can take well over 10 years to really stack value.. unless you are already coming to the investment with value stacked in other places, yet even then sometimes people do not really tend to want to draw down on one asset and put it into another, such as bitcoin, so it can still take a decent amount of time to reach target accumulation levels.. perhaps a year or two... which has it's own dilemmas if you are considering that you would rather front load into BTC .. so in that regard there can be individual variation regarding how much to front load into BTC or how to do it exactly.

Still no matter how to slice your BTC investment, I doubt that it is healthy to consider buying a bunch now and then selling in two years is a healthy way of thinking.. but I understand why people have tendencies to think like that... even when it is likely not the greatest way to think about building longer term value and really meaningfully reaching fuck you status rather than constantly spinning wheels and never reaching fuck you status.. if that might be one of the goals, no?
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October 01, 2022, 04:01:18 PM


Explanation
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October 01, 2022, 04:08:18 PM
Last edit: October 01, 2022, 04:53:23 PM by JayJuanGee
Merited by LFC_Bitcoin (1), AlcoHoDL (1), len01 (1), Rockstarguy (1)

Saylor's buying, so you can be sure the price absolutely will not sustain itself above $20k. We'll be below $19k next week as the world continues to offload this particularly useless risk asset in the midst of a financial crisis that only fiat can save us from. Hop on the USD lifeboat before it's too late.
Followed Proudhon and went USD baby!!  

The dollar is whaling


Crazy that you have just crossed into your 10 year bitcoin anniversary, and you don't own bitcoin.

It's like you haven't learned anything nuttin...

All these years in bitcoin, and you haven't learnt nuttin anything.

65 and don't have any no BTC.  OMG!!!   Shocked Shocked

I have a hard time imagining not having no BTC.. especially in times like these..

Think about it (this is not really for you Philip, since you seem to be a lost cause of sorts.. seen many similar kinds of folks through the years who don't seem to know nuttin about bitcoin, even though they have spent quite a bit of time "dabbling" in bitcoin).

Bitcoin is below the 200-week moving average for more than 3.5 months now, and you think this is the time to get into dollars because they are luring you over with a 4% yield?..

Horey sheit..



Amazing..  Does not sound like a good mindset to me.. might even sound like a mindrustening of sorts..


You have been like an opposite indicator forever, no?


For example, you were buying quite a bit of bitcoin last year and a half or so when the BTC prices were in the $50ks.. and then now, what?  

Buy high and sell low does not seem to be a great practice, but maybe it works for some people who like to spin their wheels and never really get anywhere in terms of stacking sats and making progress towards fuck you status, if that happens to be a goal that some of us have (and surely some have reached).. have you reached fuck you status so you are "all in" a shitcoin (aka dollars?)..


Seems to me that this surely is not the time for folks to be adding to their dollar stash in any kind of meaningful way rather than accumulating my lil precious..

But, hey your mileage may very.. and hopefully not too many folks who come to this thread to learn about bitcoin will be following your whimpy, weak and seemingly opposite of what to do hands, even though doing the opposite of what seems logical will end up working out for you..

I have my doubts, but perhaps? perhaps? Never say never.
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October 01, 2022, 04:54:17 PM
Merited by nutildah (1)

Saylor's buying, so you can be sure the price absolutely will not sustain itself above $20k. We'll be below $19k next week as the world continues to offload this particularly useless risk asset in the midst of a financial crisis that only fiat can save us from. Hop on the USD lifeboat before it's too late.
Followed Proudhon and went USD baby!!  

The dollar is whaling


Crazy that you have just crossed into your 10 year bitcoin anniversary, and you don't own bitcoin.

It's like you haven't learned anything nuttin...

All these years in bitcoin, and you haven't learnt nuttin anything.

65 and don't have any no BTC.  OMG!!!   Shocked Shocked

I have a hard time imagining not having no BTC.. especially in times like these..

Think about it (this is not really for you Philip, since you seem to be a lost cause of sorts.. seen many similar kinds of folks through the years who don't seem to know nuttin about bitcoin, even though they have spent quite a bit of time "dabbling" in bitcoin).

Bitcoin is below the 200-week moving average for more than 3.5 months now, and you think this is the time to get into dollars because they are luring you over with a 4% yield?..

Horey sheit..

Amazing..  Does not sound like a good mindset to me.. might even sound like a mindrustening of sorts..


You have been like an opposite indicator forever, no?


For example, you were buying quite a bit of bitcoin last year and a half or so when the BTC prices were in the $50ks.. and then now, what?  

Buy high and sell low does not seem to be a great practice, but maybe it works for some people who like to spin their wheels and never really get anywhere in terms of stacking sats and making progress towards fuck you status, if that happens to be a goal that some of us have (and surely some have reached).. have you reached fuck you status so you are "all in" a shitcoin (aka dollars?)..


Seems to me that this surely is not the time for folks to be adding to their dollar stash in any kind of meaningful way rather than accumulating my lil precious..

But, hey your mileage may very.. and hopefully not too many folks who come to this thread to learn about bitcoin will be following your whimpy, weak and seemingly opposite of what to do hands, even though doing the opposite of what seems logical will end up working out for you..

I have my doubts, but perhaps? perhaps? Never say never.

btc to the abyss.

But seriously I have over 140,000 doge why have btc?

here is why diversity in holdings.

I have a lot of gear mining btc as I type.
I will have a more gear in around two weeks.
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October 01, 2022, 05:01:17 PM


Explanation
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October 01, 2022, 05:50:47 PM

All people are buying bitcoin hard now but it still can go down by 40 - 50 % because exchanges have collected huge amounts of bitcoin. Moreover if you keep your bitcoin on exchanges they will use it to manipulate the market. So if you want bitcoin to go up, buy a ledger wallet and get it out of exchanges.
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October 01, 2022, 05:59:52 PM

”You know we’ve reached a unique time in history when Bitcoin suddenly is less volatile than fiat currencies. Bitcoin remained locked in an $18-20k range this week as the dollar index rallied +0.5%, the S&P 500 fell –3.1% and the British pound crashed to an all-time low”

Peter Saddington
The fact that the volatility is at such a low level tells me clearly, that this is an accumulation period, and now is a great time to buy some more BTC. Smiley

When times get tough, we can see the true value of fiat currencies, and how much they are prone to inflation.
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October 01, 2022, 06:03:29 PM


Explanation
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October 01, 2022, 06:34:47 PM

[edited out]
btc to the abyss.

But seriously I have over 140,000 doge why have btc?

here is why diversity in holdings.

I have a lot of gear mining btc as I type.
I will have a more gear in around two weeks.

By now, in these elderly years of your life, you should realize that holding BTC-related gear is not the same as holding BTC.

Yeah, of course, you have to make your own determinations in regards to both how to allocate and whether to tweak and/or reallocate from time to time, and also whether to move or gravitate your holdings in one direction or another based on possible changes in circumstances.

We are in a BTC thread, and even though you have been mining for years (perhaps as long as you have been a member of this forum), that still should not signify that your discussion should not relate to how much BTC to hold and which direction to go based on your personal circumstances, and for sure there are a lot of us in these here parts who believe that it is better NOT to go towards zero in regards to either BTC or dollars...

And, of course, the devil is in the details, and it is your choice (ultimately) how to allocate, but you should not expect that you are not going to get any push back if you are proclaiming that it is good to go to zero bitcoin in times like these.

And fuck off with your shitcoin holdings.. for sure. you are a dumb fuck (nohomo) to be holding doge coin (or at least advocating that nonsense here).

In regards to diversification of assets, there can be a decently large number of ways to look at that matter, and it seems logical to attempt to have diversification amongst differing kinds of asset classes.. so property, equities, bitcoin, commodities, bonds, cash.. and there can be some diversification from within, but it is not necessary to diversify within all of the asset classes, and it is usually better to attempt to select amongst winners rather than diversifying for the mere sake of it or perhaps diversifying into known losers or getting your diversifications wrong or thinking that you have to diversify.

Usually newer investors will not need to diversify until they build up their investment portfolio to a certain size. perhaps they would not want to diversify until they owned $30k to $50k in bitcoin... and then start to diversify thereafter.  Or, if they came to BTC and they already owned a 401k and some equity in property in the ballpark of $100k, then maybe they would target to get to 10% of their holdings into BTC.

Of course, since you are a more elderly investor, we might be able to presume that you have experience and you hold a variety of asset classes and some asset classes are  more liquid than others.. some asset classes have equity that could be somewhat liquid, too.

For sure, I want to beat up on you, but for sure I do not know your situation well enough to beat up on you very much except for what you are disclosing in this thread and some of the weird and seemingly negative assessments in regards to bitcoin and/or your thinking that it is good to own zero bitcoin right now, even if you own mining equipment which surely is not the same thing...

By the way, several times you admitted that historically, you have made mistakes of hardly at all holding any BTC, and you seem to be making the same mistake over and over and over.. at least from my limited perspective that I must express since we are in a bitcoin thread.. remember?

You do you.. but if you keep asserting low levels of BTC, you are likely going to continue to get push back on those kinds of assertions.. to the extent that some of it might not become a bit too repetitive..
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October 01, 2022, 06:46:19 PM


Lin Van Hek - Intimacy
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRBhxizY_TE
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October 01, 2022, 06:57:21 PM
Merited by Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Technical analysis aside (that clearly favours the bears), many got things wrong last month. Here's my shortlist:

  • Price will capitulate after MtGox redistribution on September 15th. FALSE. This was simply the deadline for claims
  • Price will dump in September as it's Bitcoin's worst month. FALSE. Price dropped by 3%, not a real dump off
  • Price will dump after the ETH merge. FALSE. Has nothing to do with Bitcoin. Price still relatively sideways

Furthermore fundamentals seem to be getting interesting. Now for the interesting factors worth keeping an eye on:

  • Price will follow the stock market and make new lows. FALSE. Price remains sideways for now, has begun to uncorrelate
  • Price will dump after bearish fed announcement Sept 21st. FALSE. Price pumped by 10%, remains up from the lows
  • Fiat currencies (GBP/EUR) crashing against USD so Bitcoin will follow. FALSE. Price instead remains sideways


This isn't to say price is going to immediately reverse, instead based on TA I'd argue further sideways orientated consolidation, this is just to emphasise how many bears got things wrong last month. From MtGox, to the ETH merge, to already-priced-in Fed announcements... and currently Bitcoin's correlation to the stock market as well as other fiat currencies. As I've always said: Bitcoin is correlated to macro economics until it's not.

The question really is: How many times do you have to get things wrong before considering that your speculation might not always be right? Many now expect October to be a sort of UPtober, because previous years point towards upside. Personally I'm considering more sideways to slightly upwards, between $20K to $24K, ie "nothing special" upside and instead further consolidation. No immediate recovery as it were.

Fundamentals are now beginning to favour the bulls, while technical analysis favours the bears. This to me calls for a neutral market until the fundamentals are properly priced in.
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