Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[rjp55]

I think if the bids got pumped even a little it could spark a mini rally. Bears are not nearly as confident as weeks past and would be much quicker to jump back in due to current market sentiment.

[hdbuck]

please stop that reversal crap calling each time we see a little upward movement. this behavior contributes to mislead beginners as they hope to find answers in here. truth is, we are not out of the overall downward movement initiated from that last bubble (eg. see pennant)

if ever, the trend should be reversed by the end of may/begining of june as we exit that exhausting pennant. yes, there is still place for a little rebound but we are not out of trouble yet.
stop fooling yourselves with that short term delusional optimism, we've been going down since december.

edit: it take about 6 months to deflate from last bubble then 2 months for stabilisation and 1 month to initiate bullrun = about 9months cycles. the key is being patient. yeayyy

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[billyjoeallen]

I love this hypothetical speculation about God Being a day trader. How much would He be trading and to what goal? Maximizing His dollar return on investment?  If so, the goal would be to trade to accumulate Bitcoin by selling  high and then buying back more Bitcoin, a larger dollar amount at the lows. This would over time have a larger and larger effect on the price making the lows higher and the highs lower until the upward trendline is near perfectly smooth. When trendline became perfectly smooth, God could make no more profits from trading volatility and would simply sell 1% for every 1% increase in price for a perpetual river of income. 

Every trader's actions, no matter how small, affect the market. Successful traders reduce volatility and unsuccessful traders increase volatility up the the point they leave the market. This is why bitcoin needs no central bank. It has us. Dumb traders pay smart traders and smart traders reduce volatility.

[Mythul]

So is the 2nd Chinese ban almost over ? Everything back to normal ? 

[mmitech]

one thing is certain, people are not selling in big quantities and the ASK bookorder looks really thin.

[hdbuck]

So is the 2nd Chinese ban almost over ? Everything back to normal ?  

yea we are slowly going up on low volumes until another news/whale scare the shit outta noobs.
but we wont go beyond 560-600$ until the downard movement ends by june

[Biontic]

255 day cycle?

*snip*
edit: it take about 6 months to deflate from last bubble then 2 months for stabilisation and 1 month to initiate bullrun = about 9months cycles. the key is being patient. yeayyy

Discussion here
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1z3m1z/a_look_at_four_bubbles_pricelog_linear_fit/

[Hypnoise]

Oh God, i just checked the amount of my posts and it says 1540, that´s depressing, really.
Well 4 more weeks and i´ll be gone.

I did NOT know you were suicidal?      Seemed like you were having so much fun with you FUD making.

The bulls on this thread will be in 4 weeks.

The bulls on this thread are funny ones - they always posting bears pics.

[jonoiv]

in 8 hours...

between 19:30 and 20:30 UTC there will be some action.  

4 Hour MACD will cross over at this point.  It's the middle of the night in China and apparently a holiday.   Maybe some bot action, or insomniac whales..




Edit:  BTCE and Stamp form similar pictures, but their data suggests the MACD cross over may be later in the night. 

[KFR]

I love this hypothetical speculation about God Being a day trader. How much would He be trading and to what goal? Maximizing His dollar return on investment?  If so, the goal would be to trade to accumulate Bitcoin by selling  high and then buying back more Bitcoin, a larger dollar amount at the lows. This would over time have a larger and larger effect on the price making the lows higher and the highs lower until the upward trendline is near perfectly smooth. When trendline became perfectly smooth, God could make no more profits from trading volatility and would simply sell 1% for every 1% increase in price for a perpetual river of income. 

Every trader's actions, no matter how small, affect the market. Successful traders reduce volatility and unsuccessful traders increase volatility up the the point they leave the market. This is why bitcoin needs no central bank. It has us. Dumb traders pay smart traders and smart traders reduce volatility.

God doesn't play dice.  God HODLs.

[koryu]

china banned btc several times and we didnt go below 400$, gox died and we didnt go below 400$.
why should anybody sell below 400$ this time?

i see the chances higher that we go up from here than down.

Well, the biggest holders won't sell everything all at once. They will sell their coins gradually, and in all probability, some of them are actually the same guys who are yelling "it's an trend reversal! Buy!" in this forum, so they could drop their coins with better profits. If the price reaches certain heights then there will be another drop. The drops that you are seeing, are the effects of those little spikes that you can see here http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed. And this isn't over yet. It will be slow and painful as long as there are fools who can be tricked with these constant "trend reversals". Only way how this would be over quick, would be if less people would fall for that. Then the dumpers would need to fasten their dumping.

and why would we go below 400 then? the market makers do not sell the bottom, they sell when we are up in the triangle, the weak hands sell the bottom. this might go on for another month.
i just dont see why we would go to 100-300$ like people post here. its more likely that we will leave the triangle sideways without a lower low and then start to go up.

[ShroomsKit]

So is the 2nd Chinese ban almost over ? Everything back to normal ?  

yea we are slowly going up on low volumes until another news/whale scare the shit outta noobs.
but we wont go beyond 560-600$ until the downard movement ends by june

Stop acting like everything you say is a fact. You know NOTHING more than any other person here. And you certainly don't have any facts. All you and we can do is guess.

[ParabellumLite]

So is the 2nd Chinese ban almost over ? Everything back to normal ?  

yea we are slowly going up on low volumes until another news/whale scare the shit outta noobs.
but we wont go beyond 560-600$ until the downard movement ends by june

Stop acting like everything you say is a fact. You know NOTHING more than any other person here. And you certainly don't have any facts. All you and we can do is guess.

Ah yes, guessing. That was a synonyme of TA, right?

[Todorius]

china banned btc several times and we didnt go below 400$, gox died and we didnt go below 400$.
why should anybody sell below 400$ this time?

i see the chances higher that we go up from here than down.

Well, the biggest holders won't sell everything all at once. They will sell their coins gradually, and in all probability, some of them are actually the same guys who are yelling "it's an trend reversal! Buy!" in this forum, so they could drop their coins with better profits. If the price reaches certain heights then there will be another drop. The drops that you are seeing, are the effects of those little spikes that you can see here http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed. And this isn't over yet. It will be slow and painful as long as there are fools who can be tricked with these constant "trend reversals". Only way how this would be over quick, would be if less people would fall for that. Then the dumpers would need to fasten their dumping.

and why would we go below 400 then? the market makers do not sell the bottom, they sell when we are up in the triangle, the weak hands sell the bottom. this might go on for another month.
i just dont see why we would go to 100-300$ like people post here. its more likely that we will leave the triangle sideways without a lower low and then start to go up.

People posting we go to 100-300 are most often trolling. No one really believes we're going down that low, but a lot of people still try to convince others that we will.

[billyjoeallen]

I love this hypothetical speculation about God Being a day trader. How much would He be trading and to what goal? Maximizing His dollar return on investment?  If so, the goal would be to trade to accumulate Bitcoin by selling  high and then buying back more Bitcoin, a larger dollar amount at the lows. This would over time have a larger and larger effect on the price making the lows higher and the highs lower until the upward trendline is near perfectly smooth. When trendline became perfectly smooth, God could make no more profits from trading volatility and would simply sell 1% for every 1% increase in price for a perpetual river of income. 

Every trader's actions, no matter how small, affect the market. Successful traders reduce volatility and unsuccessful traders increase volatility up the the point they leave the market. This is why bitcoin needs no central bank. It has us. Dumb traders pay smart traders and smart traders reduce volatility.

God doesn't play dice.  God HODLs.

What your saying is that GOD wouldn't be a day trader, which is against the very premise of the hypothetical, you stupid fuck.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

china banned btc several times and we didnt go below 400$, gox died and we didnt go below 400$.
why should anybody sell below 400$ this time?

i see the chances higher that we go up from here than down.

Well, the biggest holders won't sell everything all at once. They will sell their coins gradually, and in all probability, some of them are actually the same guys who are yelling "it's an trend reversal! Buy!" in this forum, so they could drop their coins with better profits. If the price reaches certain heights then there will be another drop. The drops that you are seeing, are the effects of those little spikes that you can see here http://blockchain.info/charts/bitcoin-days-destroyed. And this isn't over yet. It will be slow and painful as long as there are fools who can be tricked with these constant "trend reversals". Only way how this would be over quick, would be if less people would fall for that. Then the dumpers would need to fasten their dumping.

and why would we go below 400 then? the market makers do not sell the bottom, they sell when we are up in the triangle, the weak hands sell the bottom. this might go on for another month.
i just dont see why we would go to 100-300$ like people post here. its more likely that we will leave the triangle sideways without a lower low and then start to go up.

There are plenty of people out there who doesn't share the vision of bitcoins long-term success. There are people out there who see bitcoin as an temporal phenomenon, that will go back to single digits or less. They are not selling, so they could buy back cheaper. They are selling, so they could get out and use that money for other investments. Because in an investment perspective, bitcoin isn't very attractive at the moment. It's a high risk, low reward investment, and if you have no emotional attachment to bitcoin itself, then it's a calculated move to get out. If you have experience with investments, then you can see plenty of better investment opportunities then bitcoin can currently offer.

Those who currently want out are patient, because there are still fools who are feeding them. But there is the final point where the amount of fools have dropped and there isn't enough buys to even support these low volume rises. Then they will dump quicker, because they know that there are many others like them and the last ones will be the ones who lose. This slow downfall will have a grand finale that's unprecedented and it will cause an 1w volume record. Hard to tell the exact sum where the price will finally rest. Easier to tell that this hasn't happened yet.

[jonoiv]

255 day cycle?

*snip*
edit: it take about 6 months to deflate from last bubble then 2 months for stabilisation and 1 month to initiate bullrun = about 9months cycles. the key is being patient. yeayyy

Discussion here
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1z3m1z/a_look_at_four_bubbles_pricelog_linear_fit/

They are talking about a peak of $6000.

That would mean the market cap would need to move from 5.5 billion to + 75 Billion.   Who is going to fund this ?  Because I'm not and I doubt the whole bitcoin community "all in" could fund 75 billion.  

So where does the new investment come from ?

13 times it's current price, needs 13 times as much money.  Who is going to fund your dream before you dump your nice 13 x profit?

EDIT:  im not talking at you specifically, but at the people in this link you sent.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ParabellumLite]

255 day cycle?

*snip*
edit: it take about 6 months to deflate from last bubble then 2 months for stabilisation and 1 month to initiate bullrun = about 9months cycles. the key is being patient. yeayyy

Discussion here
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/1z3m1z/a_look_at_four_bubbles_pricelog_linear_fit/

They are talking about a peak of $6000.

That would mean the market cap would need to move from 5.5 billion to + 75 Billion.   Who is going to fund this ?  Because I'm not and I doubt the whole bitcoin community "all in" could fund 75 billion.  

So where does the new investment come from ?

13 times it's current price, needs 13 times as much money.  Who is going to fund your dream before you dump your nice 13 x profit?

EDIT:  im not talking at you specifically, but at the people in this link you sent.

Good point. Just imagine the average Joe having 5 whole bitcoins on his personal wallet, instead of 30.000 dollars in the bank. Do you already see him calculating when he's buying some kitchen appliance for 0,01 or 0,0092 bitcoin?
My wits tell me that just won't work.