Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

Jorge, Danny may have ponzi'd

I don't think he did.  To me it looks like just incompetence and arrogance, at least until the failure became too obvious to ignore.  But some foul play probably happened after that point.

but the real idea about bitcoin is not to trust someone else with your money. I don't think anyone lost money from Danny unless they backed his business venture. To my knowledge they didn't get to the point where they had bitcoin savings accounts with deposits in existence.

That is correct, but the bare protocol is not enough.  Even of bitcoin succeeds (in my definition, not just as a black market currency) ther will be a need for banks and such things.

and its not we will see, its we're witnessing they're growth.

I see many promises.  As for Silbert's fund, esterday I posted a rough analysis. It seems that the average investor lost money so far (although some have already made nice profits, and the rest may too if the BTC price goes up).  On the other hand, SecondMarket will profit in any case from fees, and perhaps more if they can buy coins below market price, e.g. from a private mining outfit.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I sense the bear fear of being left behind, if huobi gets to like 2730'ish i expect mass panic buybacks

I won't buy into this even if the price rises to 700. If I didn't see 500 as cheap when the price fell to this level from 600, then I certainly don't see it as cheap when it rose there from 340. I'm quite positive that this rise isn't sustainable because nothing has really changed to the better. "But everyone else are buying" isn't a strong enough reason for me.

Which is precisely why you will (as I predicted a few pages ago) continue whining all the way upwards during the next rally.*

For the record, there are people in here who I buy their % gains from (tera, even billy).

Yours, not one second.


* This is not an endorsement of the current upward swing. I think it's a bull trap.

Well, after all, you are a donkey..
With all jokes aside, I just want the market to be more efficient. For that to happen, people need to smarten up, so they could distinguish what is important and what is not. These "recoveries" that are fuelled by denial, desperation and foolish hopes, just make this long term downtrend longer, and making the market ugly longer then needed. This, in turn, will scare away experienced and educated people that in all probability would have the most funds to spend. So, because of these temporal dumb pumps, everyone involved will earn less money because the market isn't efficient and therefore isn't attractive for people who have a clue.

[Davyd05]

Jorge, Danny may have ponzi'd

I don't think he did.  To me it looks like just incompetence and arrogance, at least until the failure became too obvious to ignore.  But some foul play probably happened after that point.

but the real idea about bitcoin is not to trust someone else with your money. I don't think anyone lost money from Danny unless they backed his business venture. To my knowledge they didn't get to the point where they had bitcoin savings accounts with deposits in existence.

That is correct, but the bare protocol is not enough.  Even of bitcoin succeeds (in my definition, not just as a black market currency) ther will be a need for banks and such things.

If you're not well informed yet Jorge you should know the U.S$ is the king of black market and that is unlikely to change. No.. we are our own banks...if you mean keeping our btc funds safe from thieves, then maybe we will need safer places to access our bitcoin storage than our houses but this is no different that keeping cash at home.

and its not we will see, its we're witnessing they're growth.


I see many promises.  As for Silbert's fund, esterday I posted a rough analysis. It seems that the average investor lost money so far (although some have already made nice profits, and the rest may too if the BTC price goes up).  On the other hand, SecondMarket will profit in any case from fees, and perhaps more if they can buy coins below market price, e.g. from a private mining outfit.

I don't trust your analysis of second market but that is just me.  

[jl2012]

Jorge, Danny may have ponzi'd

I don't think he did.  To me it looks like just incompetence and arrogance, at least until the failure became too obvious to ignore.  But some foul play probably happened after that point.

but the real idea about bitcoin is not to trust someone else with your money. I don't think anyone lost money from Danny unless they backed his business venture. To my knowledge they didn't get to the point where they had bitcoin savings accounts with deposits in existence.

That is correct, but the bare protocol is not enough.  Even of bitcoin succeeds (in my definition, not just as a black market currency) ther will be a need for banks and such things.

If you're not well informed yet Jorge you should know the U.S$ is the king of black market and that is unlikely to change. No.. we are our own banks...if you mean keeping our btc funds safe from thrives yeah maybe we will need safer places to access our bitcoin storage than our houses but this is no different that keeping cash at home.

and its not we will see, its we're witnessing they're growth.


I see many promises.  As for Silbert's fund, esterday I posted a rough analysis. It seems that the average investor lost money so far (although some have already made nice profits, and the rest may too if the BTC price goes up).  On the other hand, SecondMarket will profit in any case from fees, and perhaps more if they can buy coins below market price, e.g. from a private mining outfit.

I don't trust your analysis of second market but that is just me.  

You don't need to trust him. It's just common sense as most bitcoins in BIT was bought over $400.

Details: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0

[virtualfaqs]

There are several factors why people do not daytrade :

1) They feel safer to have their coins in the coldstorage and not on the exchange - nothing wrong with that
2) They understand that trading is a serious deal, that you cant just jump in right into it and make money - nothing wrong with that
3) They have other job and its more profitable/comfortable for them to just focus on their job and buy more coins when the price is right - nothing wrong with that

4) They feel that in the best case trading is a zero sum game in which they have no edge and worst case pure gambling (with a preference for the latter theory)

5) You have to pay taxes the first time you sell. 25% in US if you held BTC under 1 year. 15% for more then a year. This assume you have net capital gain of course. Otherwise day trading is less of a problem.

[oda.krell]

* This is not an endorsement of the current upward swing. I think it's a bull trap.

Why do you think that, if you don't mind me asking?

Lack of volume, lack of clarity on the China situation, and not breaking through 430 decisively.

As always, I'm open to new information, but for now, I'll pass.

[Davyd05]

I don't trust your analysis of second market but that is just me.  

You don't need to trust him. It's just common sense as most bitcoins in BIT was bought over $400.

Details: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=337486.0

It is the fact you have to sell to realize the loss and most people doing so are likely to be looking for capital losses to offset gains in other areas, as it is tax season. Second Market only accepted accredited investors.

Accredited investor is a term defined by various countries' securities laws that delineates investors permitted to invest in certain types of higher risk investments including seed money, limited partnerships, hedge funds, private placements, and angel investor networks. The term generally includes wealthy individuals and organizations such as banks, insurance companies, significant charities, some corporations, endowments, and retirement plans.
In the United States, for an individual to be considered an accredited investor, they must have a net worth of at least one million US dollars, not including the value of their primary residence or have income at least $200,000 each year for the last two years (or $300,000 together with their spouse if married) and have the expectation to make the same amount this year."[1]
In Canada, the same prerequisites apply, however their net worth must be a minimum of one million dollars not including the value of their principal residence

-http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accredited_investor

[thezerg]

I sense the bear fear of being left behind, if huobi gets to like 2730'ish i expect mass panic buybacks

I won't buy into this even if the price rises to 700. If I didn't see 500 as cheap when the price fell to this level from 600, then I certainly don't see it as cheap when it rose there from 340. I'm quite positive that this rise isn't sustainable because nothing has really changed to the better. "But everyone else are buying" isn't a strong enough reason for me.

Which is precisely why you will (as I predicted a few pages ago) continue whining all the way upwards during the next rally.*

For the record, there are people in here who I buy their % gains from (tera, even billy).

Yours, not one second.


* This is not an endorsement of the current upward swing. I think it's a bull trap.

Well, after all, you are a donkey..
With all jokes aside, I just want the market to be more efficient. For that to happen, people need to smarten up, so they could distinguish what is important and what is not. These "recoveries" that are fuelled by denial, desperation and foolish hopes, just make this long term downtrend longer, and making the market ugly longer then needed. This, in turn, will scare away experienced and educated people that in all probability would have the most funds to spend. So, because of these temporal dumb pumps, everyone involved will earn less money because the market isn't efficient and therefore isn't attractive for people who have a clue.

Clearly bull trap "recoveries" are fueled by the idea that the prior dip may have been THE bottom and by the historical observation that no matter how well you did selling BTC or shorting it, you are not going to do do better than buy and hold unless you also catch the bull market.

So its important to buy near the bottom.  Personally, I have been thinking that that is now for the last few weeks  .  What will indicate the turn for you?

[hdbuck]

Bull trap!

[dreamspark]

here https://litecointalk.org/index.php?topic=17188.msg157943#msg157943

Lol so a post from someone on a forum...

No offence they could be completely right but you've been here long enough to know you dont make decisions based on someone on a forums postings. Thats rule #1

[JorgeStolfi]

I dont like when people try to ridicule "buy and hold" approach, nothing wrong with buying btc as longterm investment.

Long term investment is a sensible choice, if the odds are favorable. For company stocks, it is even the "right" strategy.

But cutting losses and short-term trading are sensible choices too, in other conditions.

So why is it forbidden to express negative opinions that imply "don't buy" or "sell"?  When "FUD" means "Facts and Unambiguous Data", any fear, uncertainty, and doubts that may result are good things.

[dreamspark]

I dont like when people try to ridicule "buy and hold" approach, nothing wrong with buying btc as longterm investment.

Long term investment is a sensible choice, if the odds are favorable. For company stocks, it is even the "right" strategy.

But cutting losses and short-term trading are sensible choices too, in other conditions.

So why is it forbidden to express negative opinions that imply "don't buy" or "sell"?  When "FUD" means "Facts and Unambiguous Data", any fear, uncertainty, and doubts that may result are good things.

C'mon Jorge FUD means fear, uncertainty and doubt. Where have you ever seen it refered to as such in a market situation...

[KFR]

Quite a leap from "don't like" to forbidden.  Same old technique. 

[aminorex]

If your main income is trading and you are making money - props to you...

Anything worth doing is worth doing well.  Some things are not worth doing.  

There are many kinds of trades.  A free exchange based on mutual information is almost always pure win.  The more of these that occur, the more efficient and productive the economy.  Some trades are based on taking advantage of differential information, and are a positive boon systemically, although they are not win-win.  They are win-lose.  An evolutionary process weeds out the losers, but they are constantly churning, so this process will never completely end, and is unavoidable.  It is bound up with the necessary process of price discovery.  No problem there.  Performing deceptive tortious or outright criminal acts to induce losers in order to gain thereby is just evil, seeking to harm others in order to benefit thereby.  It is morally indiscernible from any other larceny or fraud, and harms the efficiency of the market, and harms the productivity of the economy.  It is a defection and a despoilment of the commons.  I would that some batman go from house to house giving neckties to sociopaths like these.  Not my job, however, and thankfully.  On this forum I rub shoulders with these parasites.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

I sense the bear fear of being left behind, if huobi gets to like 2730'ish i expect mass panic buybacks

I won't buy into this even if the price rises to 700. If I didn't see 500 as cheap when the price fell to this level from 600, then I certainly don't see it as cheap when it rose there from 340. I'm quite positive that this rise isn't sustainable because nothing has really changed to the better. "But everyone else are buying" isn't a strong enough reason for me.

Which is precisely why you will (as I predicted a few pages ago) continue whining all the way upwards during the next rally.*

For the record, there are people in here who I buy their % gains from (tera, even billy).

Yours, not one second.


* This is not an endorsement of the current upward swing. I think it's a bull trap.

Well, after all, you are a donkey..
With all jokes aside, I just want the market to be more efficient. For that to happen, people need to smarten up, so they could distinguish what is important and what is not. These "recoveries" that are fuelled by denial, desperation and foolish hopes, just make this long term downtrend longer, and making the market ugly longer then needed. This, in turn, will scare away experienced and educated people that in all probability would have the most funds to spend. So, because of these temporal dumb pumps, everyone involved will earn less money because the market isn't efficient and therefore isn't attractive for people who have a clue.

Clearly bull trap "recoveries" are fueled by the idea that the prior dip may have been THE bottom and by the historical observation that no matter how well you did selling BTC or shorting it, you are not going to do do better than buy and hold unless you also catch the bull market.

So its important to buy near the bottom.  Personally, I have been thinking that that is now for the last few weeks  .  What will indicate the turn for you?

To me there has to be one of two reasons to believe in the trend reversal:
a) Major developments in the market system. Be it new markets with proper volume in new geographical locations like south- and central-America. Or be it ties to institutional funding.
b) The price drops to the level where mostly only those hold up the price, who are ready to go down with the ship. For this to happen there will be a 1w volume record and the price will rest there for weeks or more with a very low volume. A good indicator for that would be some of the most enthusiastic and loudest bulls in this forum, who will start to rant and blame everyone for selling their coins and ruining heaven for everyone. As long as there is hope for fools, without any real reason for hope, then this isn't the bottom yet.

[rpietila]

b) The price drops to the level where mostly only those hold up the price, who are ready to go down with the ship. For this to happen there will be a 1w volume record and the price will rest there for weeks or more with a very low volume. A good indicator for that would be some of the most enthusiastic and loudest bulls in this forum, who will start to rant and blame everyone for selling their coins and ruining heaven for everyone. As long as there is hope for fools, without any real reason for hope, then this isn't the bottom yet.

I bought my coins today, perhaps you should also..?

[octaft]

Why do some of you assume that because someone rich is getting into something that it must necessarily mean that that something will make money? Even smart people get burned sometimes, and that's before you consider the rich people who are stupid and born into money.

[aminorex]

Long term investment is a sensible choice, if the odds are favorable. For company stocks, it is even the "right" strategy.

For company stocks in the U.S. in aggregate buy and hold is suicidal over the next 10 years while the demographic curve forces distribution.
This summer will be the first glimpse of reality peeping into the fed-induced bubble of unreality we have enjoyed for 5 years, but just a foreshadowing really.

[Davyd05]

Why do some of you assume that because someone rich is getting into something that it must necessarily mean that that something will make money? Even smart people get burned sometimes, and that's before you consider the rich people who are stupid and born into money.

care to point this somewhere so it can be addressed.. or you just want to throw your 2 cents in?