Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[TERA]

A candle is coming.

[JayJuanGee]

A candle is coming.

Red

or

Green?

[TERA]

[chessnut]

this consolidation has surprising support. Huobi has held territory pretty smartly.

[solex]

Interesting that Adam's poll is just as polarized!

[chessnut]

It's a texas show down!

[podyx]

[JayJuanGee]

It's a texas show down!

I was expecting some trade/showdown competition between the bears and the bulls over this weekend.. like a real battle to take advantage of whatever remains of the fud in a timely manner.....

Surely, that battle could still occur.. but it is also possible that we may be left in a sort of limbo-land state until on or after 4/15 before we get some kind of price action. 

Also wasnt there some defiant statements from Huobi about NOT complying with china regulations or that trades are going to take place underground if china keeps pushing for banning or too many restrictions on bitcoin, and that seems to just drag things out more than resolving matters.    The chinese are under some stress right now with their currency too... .. even though I get the sense that bitcoin is small potatos compared with their currency issues.

I've got enough fiat in my account now to make some additional BTC purchases... but I am NOT sure how long I can last if BTC prices were to keep this downward trickling momentum for another month or two..  really the last two months have been the worst of the unrelenting downward price trickle. Probably, I would have to stop buying BTC at some point.. even though coins would be getting "cheaper" and "cheaper."   

A problem with the last two months has been that I have kept thinking that we are at the bottom price, and then we get further drops.. mostly I was thinking that since about $610. I certainly think that coins are cheap now - but I would be kicking myself if I continue to buy in this particular price range, and then we get even more cheaper coins at some point in the next week or possibly two weeks...   But then I will also kick myself I do NOT exhaust my current fiat at this price, especially if we are NOT going to be returning to this price after the ChooChoo MO FO comes about.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[podyx]

I just wanna say, that when we hit $550 in the next few days

I will quote this post and tell you all to suck my dick and polish my shoes

[mah87]

I just wanna say, that when we pass $550 in the next few days

I will quote this post and tell you all to suck my dick and polish my shoes

I wanna say you are a permabull and next week price will be at 300

[greenlion]

the last time I checked,the amortized mining cost of 1 bit coin was 700 dollars using the latest cheapest equipment.   the overwhelming bulk of all coin mining is being done with the latest cheapest equipment, as can be easily inferred from the hash rate graph.

these coins will not be sold for less than $700 I can assure you

That's not really how it works at all. That's basically the sunk cost fallacy and the fallacious labor theory of value merged into one conclusion.

Production costs do not directly cause price. Market price does naturally converge on cost plus a standard economic rate of return given stable demand due to changes in the supply function. But that is not a direct causal relationship to price.

A miner would only rationally hold out for >$700 if he didn't anticipate needing liquidity prior to the expectation of that price arising. The marginal utility of dollars necessarily increases relative to Bitcoin if the miner has a pressing need for dollars.

[shmadz]

some perspective.

monthly inflation of bitcoin = 25 coins per block * 6 blocks per hour * 24 hours per day * 30 days per month = 108,000 coins per month.

monthly inflation of USD from fed QE alone = 50,000,000,000 USD per month.


and just for fun: 50,000,000,000 USD per month / 108,000 coins per month = 462,962.96 USD per coin.

 

 

[mladen00]

some perspective.

monthly inflation of bitcoin = 25 coins per block * 6 blocks per hour * 24 hours per day * 30 days per month = 108,000 coins per month.

monthly inflation of USD from fed QE alone = 50,000,000,000 USD per month.


and just for fun: 50,000,000,000 USD per month / 108,000 coins per month = 462,962.96 USD per coin.

 

 

 

+1

 

[JorgeStolfi]

Also wasnt there some defiant statements from Huobi about NOT complying with china regulations or that trades are going to take place underground if china keeps pushing for banning or too many restrictions on bitcoin, and that seems to just drag things out more than resolving matters.

As far as I can tell with Google Translate, the note  now on their site  (dated 2014-04-11 16:45:16 local time) says that

(1) they believe that the aim of the December decree was to prevent abuses like money laundering, and they are totally willing to cooperate with the government on that, they are already doing a lot in that area with customer identification, reporting large movements etc; and that if they are forced to shut down, those abuses will move overseas where they will be harder to police;

(2) they have received closure notices from two banks (ICBC and Merchants Bank), they understand that each bank is interpreting the PBoC order differently, with different dates, so perhaps some of the banks may continue to work with them.

I think these views are consistent with the theory that the new "PBoC circular" did not originate with PBoC (which does not seem worried about those "virtual stamps" anymore).  Bitcoin is no longer a threat to the monetary policy, which is the PBoC's main concern.  But is still a potential tool for money laundering, bribing, subversion, etc..

IIRC, the December decree was said to be the joint decision of five ministeries/agencies, of which PBoC was just one.  I think that the March decision, to tighten the December decree by closing the bank accounts, came from the law enforcement and national security agencies, and was issued through the PBoC only because the banks are subordinated to the PBoC.

Also, point (2) above may explain why the price bounced back to the level of Apr/09.  The previous note of Apr/10, about the ICBC closure, implied that all  bank accounts would be closed, with no negotiation possible, thus confirming the Caixin article.  This note restores the uncertainty of last Friday by suggesting that some bank accounts may remain open.  The timing of the last drop (07:00 am local time) and the  bounceback (11:00 am local time) seems consistent with the timing of the note plus insider trading.

[JayJuanGee]

Also wasnt there some defiant statements from Huobi about NOT complying with china regulations or that trades are going to take place underground if china keeps pushing for banning or too many restrictions on bitcoin, and that seems to just drag things out more than resolving matters.

As far as I can tell with Google Translate, the note  now on their site  (dated 2014-04-11 16:45:16 local time) says that

(1) they believe that the aim of the December decree was to prevent abuses like money laundering, and they are totally willing to cooperate with the government on that, they are already doing a lot in that area with customer identification, reporting large movements etc; and that if they are forced to shut down, those abuses will move overseas where they will be harder to police;

(2) they have received closure notices from two banks (ICBC and Merchants Bank), they understand that each bank is interpreting the PBoC order differently, with different dates, so perhaps some of the banks may continue to work with them.

I think these views are consistent with the theory that the new "PBoC circular" did not originate with PBoC (which does not seem worried about those "virtual stamps" anymore).  Bitcoin is no longer a threat to the monetary policy, which is the PBoC's main concern.  But is still a potential tool for money laundering, bribing, subversion, etc..

IIRC, the December decree was said to be the joint decision of five ministeries/agencies, of which PBoC was just one.  I think that the March decision, to tighten the December decree by closing the bank accounts, came from the law enforcement and national security agencies, and was issued through the PBoC only because the banks are subordinated to the PBoC.

Also, point (2) above may explain why the price bounced back to the level of Apr/09.  The previous note of Apr/10, about the ICBC closure, implied that all  bank accounts would be closed, with no negotiation possible, thus confirming the Caixin article.  This note restores the uncertainty of last Friday by suggesting that some bank accounts may remain open.  The timing of the last drop (07:00 am local time) and the  bounceback (11:00 am local time) seems consistent with the timing of the note plus insider trading.

Your interpretation seems to make quite a bit of sense to outline what seems to be the current situation, which really does seem to come back to the notion that at least on Huobi, they are going to continue to attempt to operate, and they seem to have a variety of options to continue to operate - however, at any moment their funding avenues could dry up.  Then we get to the next FUD and speculated price drop, again (like ground hog's day) that China is banning bitcoin. 

These kinds of uncertainties could drag out for several months... and in the meantime the bitcoin network will continue to expand.. and maybe by the time bitcoin is really and truly banned in china, it will be too late  - or some other change in bitcoin land may evolve in order that such news is NOT so detrimental to BTC prices?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JorgeStolfi]

[...] does seem to come back to the notion that at least on Huobi, they are going to continue to attempt to operate, and they seem to have a variety of options to continue to operate - however, at any moment their funding avenues could dry up.  Then we get to the next FUD and speculated price drop, again (like ground hog's day) that China is banning bitcoin.  

These kinds of uncertainties could drag out for several months... and in the meantime the bitcoin network will continue to expand.. and maybe by the time bitcoin is really and truly banned in china, it will be too late  - or some other change in bitcoin land may evolve in order that such news is NOT so detrimental to BTC prices?

Obviosly I can't predict unpredictable events... But if Huobi can keep some bank account open after Apr/18, the price may recover the 500 CNY that it lost on Mar/27 because of the Caixin leak.  However, the descending trend that has dominated since Feb/06 will probably continue.

If, on the other hand, all bank accounts get indeed closed next week, the price will probably drop by at least another 500 CNY, as it did on Apr/10 after the ICBC closure. (Since that drop was cut short by the new Huobi note, such final frop may be much deeper than that.)

[dreamspark]

Cant wait for the next bull run, Jorge your going to have so much fun   

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