Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[spooderman]

Been a while since we've seen a double bottom.

Ex:

I've missed you Larry David.

We need to re-visit the 300s just one more time plz. I can't believe how many bear trolls voted in that poll. We're not getting back into the 200s. There's no waaaay.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[spooderman]

6 hrs until it's the 14th in China and a disappointingly little amount of stuff happens.

[minerpumpkin]

350 BTC dumped on Stamp and no one cares! *cheers* 

[ShroomsKit]

350 BTC dumped on Stamp and no one cares! *cheers* 

We'll see. I have the feeling a few people are about to panic.

[aminorex]

the last time I checked,the amortized mining cost of 1 bit coin was 700 dollars using the latest cheapest equipment.   the overwhelming bulk of all coin mining is being done with the latest cheapest equipment, as can be easily inferred from the hash rate graph.

these coins will not be sold for less than $700 I can assure you

That's not really how it works at all. That's basically the sunk cost fallacy and the fallacious labor theory of value merged into one conclusion.

Production costs do not directly cause price. Market price does naturally converge on cost plus a standard economic rate of return given stable demand due to changes in the supply function. But that is not a direct causal relationship to price.

A miner would only rationally hold out for >$700 if he didn't anticipate needing liquidity prior to the expectation of that price arising. The marginal utility of dollars necessarily increases relative to Bitcoin if the miner has a pressing need for dollars.

That was one of the most ludicrous strings of verbiage I have seen since the Sokal/Socialtext affair.  Simple arithmetic refutes you outright.  If I seek anything other than bankruptcy I simply can not sell coins mined today with the most cost-effective hashing hardware in the known universe for less than 700.  If I am not holding my only rational choice is to sell the hardware to someone who will.

[minerpumpkin]

350 BTC dumped on Stamp and no one cares! *cheers* 

We'll see. I have the feeling a few people are about to panic.

Nah, 1 week ago this would have crashed the market out of its "450s tunnel", but now everyone seems to be like "Well, I'm not selling! Let's wait until the train leaves and jump on then."

[TERA]

350 BTC dumped on Stamp and no one cares! *cheers* 

We'll see. I have the feeling a few people are about to panic.

Nah, 1 week ago this would have crashed the market out of its "450s tunnel", but now everyone seems to be like "Well, I'm not selling! Let's wait until the train leaves and jump on then."

The trend is controlled entirely by China.

[ShroomsKit]

350 BTC dumped on Stamp and no one cares! *cheers* 

We'll see. I have the feeling a few people are about to panic.

Nah, 1 week ago this would have crashed the market out of its "450s tunnel", but now everyone seems to be like "Well, I'm not selling! Let's wait until the train leaves and jump on then."

I sure hope you're right. I'm so extremely tired of all these people trying to take us down and the idiot panic sellers helping them every time.

[minerpumpkin]

350 BTC dumped on Stamp and no one cares! *cheers*  

We'll see. I have the feeling a few people are about to panic.

Nah, 1 week ago this would have crashed the market out of its "450s tunnel", but now everyone seems to be like "Well, I'm not selling! Let's wait until the train leaves and jump on then."

I sure hope you're right. I'm so extremely tired of all these people trying to take us down and the idiot panic sellers helping them every time.

We're back at 424. I've got a good feeling. But we'll see. Even the bears conclude that a second test of 340 would send us in bull country, so if that happens... let it be!

edit: Nevermind, back at 420 

[Rampion]

Bitstamp stuff are behaving a little bit strange :

https://twitter.com/Bitstamp/status/454601576007864320




mmmm so Why ? they never did that before !!!

It's highly concerning that apparently Bitstamp is showing willingness to manipulate the market given the role they play., because we don't know if there is any real foul play behind the scenes. MtGox once did the same with a similar statement in a press release. I deemed them somewhat more professional than MtGox, but perhaps I was wrong.

At least MtGox have stated that they would disallow their employees from insider trading, but I have not heard anything like that from Bitstamp.

You can bet your hat there was a huge amount of "insider trading" on Gox, and that currently that's happening on Bitstamp too.

Do not forget people running those service are a bunch of amateurs (at best), which are not compliant with current financial regulations - to operate as an exchange in the EU you need to have a banking license, in most of the US states you need to be registered as a MSB, etc. - Bitstamp is operating with a SINGLE corporate account where they mix all customers funds, and probably their own too. Taking deposits without a banking license is illegal in the EU, and it is also very dangerous for the customers: if ONE Bitstamp customer is investigated the relevant authority will have no other option that to freeze the ONLY bank account Bitstamp has, de facto screwing up all their customers. That wouldn't happen if they were compliant and thus acting as a bank, setting up a separate fiat account for each one of their customers.

From a legal point of view, currently Bitstamp is the sole owner of the corporate account in which customers are depositing their trading funds, which is very bad for their customers and totally non-compliant, as customers are not exchanging their money for a service but DEPOSITING it in order to trade with each other.

You can bet Bitstamp knows this very well, and yet they continue to operate because the risk is worth it - you can bet they are ready to take other kinds of risks too as per "insider trading".

That said, while operating an exchange without a banking license (or a banking partner providing that license as Fidor Bank does for bitcoin.de, which from a legal POV is just a tied agent of Fidor) is illegal/non-compliant in the EU, Bitstamp is not giving a shit about that fact risking all their customer funds to LE or regulators, I bet the apply the same standard for other dangerous practices.

We are still in the wild west, folks... But probably not for too long.

[spooderman]

350 BTC dumped on Stamp and no one cares! *cheers*  

We'll see. I have the feeling a few people are about to panic.

Nah, 1 week ago this would have crashed the market out of its "450s tunnel", but now everyone seems to be like "Well, I'm not selling! Let's wait until the train leaves and jump on then."

I sure hope you're right. I'm so extremely tired of all these people trying to take us down and the idiot panic sellers helping them every time.

We're back at 424. I've got a good feeling. But we'll see. Even the bears conclude that a second test of 340 would send us in bull country, so if that happens... let it be!

edit: Nevermind, back at 420 

Bulls, your time is nao. LET'S GO!

(Or alternatively, hit 350 again for me just once more, I have a little bit of fiat I would rather not have).

[spooderman]

5


(hours until nothing much occurs in China)

[Zule]

the last time I checked,the amortized mining cost of 1 bit coin was 700 dollars using the latest cheapest equipment.   the overwhelming bulk of all coin mining is being done with the latest cheapest equipment, as can be easily inferred from the hash rate graph.

these coins will not be sold for less than $700 I can assure you

That's not really how it works at all. That's basically the sunk cost fallacy and the fallacious labor theory of value merged into one conclusion.

Production costs do not directly cause price. Market price does naturally converge on cost plus a standard economic rate of return given stable demand due to changes in the supply function. But that is not a direct causal relationship to price.

A miner would only rationally hold out for >$700 if he didn't anticipate needing liquidity prior to the expectation of that price arising. The marginal utility of dollars necessarily increases relative to Bitcoin if the miner has a pressing need for dollars.

That was one of the most ludicrous strings of verbiage I have seen since the Sokal/Socialtext affair.  Simple arithmetic refutes you outright.  If I seek anything other than bankruptcy I simply can not sell coins mined today with the most cost-effective hashing hardware in the known universe for less than 700.  If I am not holding my only rational choice is to sell the hardware to someone who will.

Miners sell when they need to, even with a loss. Some of the biggest companies in the word operate with a loss sometime. A miner will keep mining and selling with a loss if he thinks that after a period of time in which he can withstand losses, the luck will change and he can make profit and cover those losses.

[mah87]

Survey about trading tools ! Please vote!

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=558348

Thank you! =D

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[magicmexican]

Panic selling incoming

[roslinpl]

350 BTC dumped on Stamp and no one cares! *cheers* 

We'll see. I have the feeling a few people are about to panic.

Nah, 1 week ago this would have crashed the market out of its "450s tunnel", but now everyone seems to be like "Well, I'm not selling! Let's wait until the train leaves and jump on then."

The trend is controlled entirely by China.

I do not agree. Trend is controlled not only by a China - China is not >51% of the market.
We follow this trend - it is controlled by ALL of the traders not only by Chinese.

[igorr]

It was be under control before 4 months,  at 1250 price.