Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

[JayJuanGee]

Sellers spin it up and Buyers spin it down...an idiot is someone who doesn't spin it at all.

You have a perverted sense of the world.  Maybe you have only engaged in internet relationships?

Interesting...so what exactly are you trying to sell me here?

He's spinning down. He must be trying to buy you something.

That's another way of putting it, but Aminorex, you may be too abstract for pjviitas - since s/he seems to have a more straight forward view of the way the world operates.

[oda.krell]

Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

Not enough people, apparently.

[JayJuanGee]

pretty sure it is Sunday or it just finished an hr ago in China but you know what's great on sunday ... BACON

Bacon is great on any day.  Making me hungry just thinking about it.

[aminorex]

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

That's about right, but you know how that works out.  We wont hang there for very long.

[aminorex]

pretty sure it is Sunday or it just finished an hr ago in China but you know what's great on sunday ... BACON

Bacon is great on any day.  Making me hungry just thinking about it.

Baconcoin.  The post-doge memecoin.

[aminorex]

he or she does NOT want to PM you b/c you write like you are 14 - nothing against 14 year olds.. but.

Can you make change for a 36?

[Cassius]

Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

[Davyd05]

Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

I think it is driven more simply by speculators, hodlers and commerce.  Speculators are here to make quick flips as it has shown due to the exciting new realities that bitcoin provides or many tout will provide. This new unknown is bringing waves of people that naturally force prices higher and even more so during times of extreme buying pressure.

Now as of late with lower volume and uncertainty coupled with an increased use of btc as a medium of payment @ online retailers and brick and mortar shops we're seeing an increased downward pressure, this isn't a long term issue as we're currently seeing the early adopters buy goods with their stashes instead of converting to fiat and then buying said goods. Not to mention the odd lambo and real estate sale.

So in conclusion there's going to be dips, there's going to be rallies till speculation isn't the leading factor to price discovery

[damiano]

Volume is incredibly low.  

I just encountered BlackCoin and I think it's a very interesting pump concept.  The coin switched from PoW to PoS.  Now the only way to mine it is indirectly, and to facilitate that, there is a multipool, bcmultipool.com, which mines scrypt alts, dumps for BTC, and buys BC with BTC.  It then pays out in BC.

The effect is that every 20-60 minutes there is a market order for BC.  The BC bid keeps going up.  Also, whatever scrypt is leading the return on difficulty gets dumped.   If enough miners decide to take payouts in BC in this way, BC would then drain the marketcap of all the scrypt coins.

I like this idea, because I think its good for BTC.  It's a layered market, and it reduces the fog of uncertainty regarding competitors by dumping and crushing the value of a large number of trash coins.  Not sure if it is actually an improvement over just switch-mining with BTC payout, though.  I might be.

But surely the fact that the last stage of Blackcoin mining is dumping the BTC, makes it not good for BTC? You get a big BTC dump whenever the blackcoin pools pay out. The more popular blackcoin gets, the bigger the hash, the more alt > btc mined, the bigger the BTC dumps. The value of blackcoin keeps rising, so few are buying straight back in to btc when they get paid. So the net result is more bitcoin getting dumped at current buy order.

I'm mining on blackcoinpool.com with 4.2MH and getting about 0.0034 btc worth or blackcoin a day, which is twice what I've been getting of pure btc on multipools. I also bought 10,000 blackcoin at 9000 satoshi, it's now at 30,000+ :/ I'm very wary of altcoins, but this has been incredible so far.

Oh I am sure that black will add some vol in the short run but srriously do you think anyone will hold the bulk of their wealth in blackcoin, which is completely unusable currency?  90% off black gets turned to btc.  The rest, the dumb money, is turned to fiat via btc.  (Numbers out of a hat.)  In the long run it adds holders, and it weakens all the scamcoins.

Blackcoin will have its use/purpose later.  The addition of coinkite will help.  

I've been a large holder even at its lows and I am blown away by the returns I have

I would also encourage you to buy more, but if your mining on the pool thats good enough

[pjviitas]

Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

[spooderman]

I think with NYFDS issuing the final regulatory guidelines for exchanges in New York by the end of Q2, I believe the start of Q3 will be a new all time high.

This gloom and doom will blow away then, or as soon as NYFDS releases the guidelines. Thats when Circle, SecondMarket, Coinsetter, Buttercoin will probably launch.

+1 that I agree with. In our hearts we are all permabulls (and maybe that is the problem).

That is not a problem. If cryptocurrency isn't the future, humanity really screwed up. We've moved out of the stone age economically.

Mind you, humanity is continuing to make our planet uninhabitable to humans so.....

TO DA MOON!

I thought this was a very cool quote from here http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/22wcx6/what_happens_if_the_best_case_scenarios_actually/cgr72rm

I wonder how the situation would look in an alternative universe where the humans invented computers, Internet and cryptography in the early 19th century and switched from gold to Bitcoin, skipping fiat currencies entirely.

Imagine someone from this universe suggesting a fiat currency:

"Let's call this system Dollarcoin. It is a system like Bitcoin, but there will be only one miner, the government. And there will be no limits on block rewards, so the government will be able to mine as many dollarcoins as it wants to. And you will not be able to transact large amounts directly but will need to register a "wallet" with large government-licensed corporations - we will call them banks. And banks and the government will be able to freeze your wallet or confiscate it at any time.

The banks will run their own blockchains too, however all those altcoins will be also called dollarcoins. Each bank will be able to mine 10 "bank dollarcoins" for each "government dollarcoin" they hold. And the bank will freely exchange between government coins and its own coins until it doesn't have any real dollarcoins left and its blockchain fails. Nothing to worry though - in this case the government will simply mine enough dollarcoins to reimburse the bank's customers.

And while we are at it, let's invent our own system for making purchases over the Internet with dollarcoins. It will be called Credit Card. This will be a plastic card with your dollarcoin private key engraved on it in plaintext. When you make a purchase online, you will simply send your private key to the merchant who are responsible for charging the exact amount you agreed to. After that, the merchant will store your private key in its database so you won't have to type it again next time! (Brilliant idea, right?)

Of course, there will be huge amount of losses due to fraud, but we will distribute those losses equally among all users of the system and they probably won't notice. We can just as many coins as we want, remember?"

This is just excellent. +graham's number

[jonoiv]

Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Ya based on what?

For me everything seems to be pointed toward $9.99

Based on the fact he's a permanent uber-bull troll!

[billyjoeallen]

How awesome it would be if this was a successful retest of $340. 

I thought that you said that you were back to being all in BTC?  Did you get into Fiat again at some time?

I specifically said I was NOT all in, just cautiously optimistic. There was a four hour cross on the MACD  that had the potential of causing a pop, and I wanted to be in a position to SELL that spike. The Next rally is extremely unlikely to start immediately after the lowest point is hit. There will be months of consolidation.

[greenlion]

the last time I checked,the amortized mining cost of 1 bit coin was 700 dollars using the latest cheapest equipment.   the overwhelming bulk of all coin mining is being done with the latest cheapest equipment, as can be easily inferred from the hash rate graph.

these coins will not be sold for less than $700 I can assure you

That's not really how it works at all. That's basically the sunk cost fallacy and the fallacious labor theory of value merged into one conclusion.

Production costs do not directly cause price. Market price does naturally converge on cost plus a standard economic rate of return given stable demand due to changes in the supply function. But that is not a direct causal relationship to price.

A miner would only rationally hold out for >$700 if he didn't anticipate needing liquidity prior to the expectation of that price arising. The marginal utility of dollars necessarily increases relative to Bitcoin if the miner has a pressing need for dollars.

That was one of the most ludicrous strings of verbiage I have seen since the Sokal/Socialtext affair.  Simple arithmetic refutes you outright.  If I seek anything other than bankruptcy I simply can not sell coins mined today with the most cost-effective hashing hardware in the known universe for less than 700.  If I am not holding my only rational choice is to sell the hardware to someone who will.

I don't know where you get your economics from, but what you're arguing amounts to saying that no one ever will just take a loss on anything.

Your cute little internet arguments that you have names for have nothing to do with actual economics btw.

[aminorex]

$750 valuation based on what?

Numerous fundamental factors and several technicals converge in this area presently.  You need to do some catchup reading.  The  bear case always boils down to fud - which is a legitimate and important factor.  The bull case always boils down to facts and logic - sometimes erroneous but on the whole fairly sound ( although exhaustive scenario analysis is of course infeasible or even impossible).  It is just possible that facts and logic will dominate in the long run. Not certain, but the upside is huge if they do.

[aminorex]

I don't know where you get your economics from, but what you're arguing amounts to saying that no one ever will just take a loss on anything.

If that's what you are reading then I have expressed myself poorly.
No rational actor with a classical monetary utility function will act to foreseeably incur catastrophic long term losses is about as close as I would come to that.

[ErisDiscordia]

I think with NYFDS issuing the final regulatory guidelines for exchanges in New York by the end of Q2, I believe the start of Q3 will be a new all time high.

This gloom and doom will blow away then, or as soon as NYFDS releases the guidelines. Thats when Circle, SecondMarket, Coinsetter, Buttercoin will probably launch.

+1 that I agree with. In our hearts we are all permabulls (and maybe that is the problem).

That is not a problem. If cryptocurrency isn't the future, humanity really screwed up. We've moved out of the stone age economically.

Mind you, humanity is continuing to make our planet uninhabitable to humans so.....

TO DA MOON!

I thought this was a very cool quote from here http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/22wcx6/what_happens_if_the_best_case_scenarios_actually/cgr72rm

I wonder how the situation would look in an alternative universe where the humans invented computers, Internet and cryptography in the early 19th century and switched from gold to Bitcoin, skipping fiat currencies entirely.

Imagine someone from this universe suggesting a fiat currency:

"Let's call this system Dollarcoin. It is a system like Bitcoin, but there will be only one miner, the government. And there will be no limits on block rewards, so the government will be able to mine as many dollarcoins as it wants to. And you will not be able to transact large amounts directly but will need to register a "wallet" with large government-licensed corporations - we will call them banks. And banks and the government will be able to freeze your wallet or confiscate it at any time.

The banks will run their own blockchains too, however all those altcoins will be also called dollarcoins. Each bank will be able to mine 10 "bank dollarcoins" for each "government dollarcoin" they hold. And the bank will freely exchange between government coins and its own coins until it doesn't have any real dollarcoins left and its blockchain fails. Nothing to worry though - in this case the government will simply mine enough dollarcoins to reimburse the bank's customers.

And while we are at it, let's invent our own system for making purchases over the Internet with dollarcoins. It will be called Credit Card. This will be a plastic card with your dollarcoin private key engraved on it in plaintext. When you make a purchase online, you will simply send your private key to the merchant who are responsible for charging the exact amount you agreed to. After that, the merchant will store your private key in its database so you won't have to type it again next time! (Brilliant idea, right?)

Of course, there will be huge amount of losses due to fraud, but we will distribute those losses equally among all users of the system and they probably won't notice. We can just as many coins as we want, remember?"

This is just excellent. +graham's number

+1

That was brilliant!

[JayJuanGee]

Today something dawned on me:

We can actually start seeing signs of "sellers' exhaustion" in volume and price action, but what is fascinating is that, different from the previous cycle, there is no sign yet of "buyers' appetite" re-appearing correspondingly.

Despair

Don't think so. "Apathy" is more like it, imo.

I think a lot of people are getting tired of the bullshit... and probably thinking that BTC prices should be more in line with the fundamentals.. in the $750-$850 arena.

$750 valuation based on what?

Based on the totality of the circumstances... included but not limited to payment system, storage of value, public ledger and decentralized innovative protocol that is expanding its reach globally.. and a market cap of only about 5 billion - even though much lesser important innovations have much larger market caps...

[magicmexican]

Very predictable action, as i've said, will be about 2500-2550 on huobi.

But since now 4h and 6h macD's are going down, i have no clue how much further it will go, but i will pass on selling now, taking my small profits and sitting in coins this night