Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes

(I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol   )

Well, then the account of this highly intelligent individual has been compromised by an moronic jackass who he can't even understand how USD is actually THE thing that gives value to BTC?

Another example of your truly either NOT knowing what da fuck you are talking about or that you are purposefully just attempting to incite other posters.

At least try to debate against my arguments, not just make another failed attempt to insult me.
Have a cigarette, read a book, make some notes, relieve yourself from the anxiety of not getting rich without any work or education, and then try really hard. Please..

Yeah.. YOU would love to drag a variety of posters down your bullshit superficial and already debunked framings of the situation. 

That is NOT an intellectual exercise or a meaningful debate, it is a waste of time. 

I already know your MO.  As soon as anybody attempts to reasonably discuss your assertions with you, then you will either change the facts or change the topic or come up with some other bullshit highly speculative scenario that has little to NO basis in reality. 

In conclusion, largely a waste of time to accept many of your framings of the situation  b/c you are far from being genuine in any kind of attempt to deal in the real world and to account for actual facts.

[Davyd05]

LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS
a) In 2014, price will visit below 100 = .5% ( range of this time frame is less than two months and would only occur upon Chinese confirmation of Banning from the president himself not Weibo not exchanges)
b) In 2014, price will visit below 200 = 2.5% ( ties in to the above )
c) In 2014, price will visit below 300 = 5%  ( Failure to launch coming out of April and some FUD could retest our bottom )
d) In 2014, price will visit below 400 = 25%  ( ties in to above again)
e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 100%  (Where I imagine us around Apr 20th and probably leaving this range as we enter may)
f) In 2014, price will visit above 750 = 100%   ( if we slow grind here before the launch to new ATH its probably late may
g) In 2014, price will visit above 1000 = 100% ( JUNE JUNE JUNE JUNE )
h) In 2014, price will visit above 1250 = 100% ( JUNE JUNE JUNE JUNE)
/LET'S GIVE PROBABILITIES TO THE FOLLOWING EVENTS

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Sloppy would truly be an understatement if someone is actually paying you (highly?!) for financial analytics. It's more probable that you're plain out lying, because you can't be this thick even if you understand just the basic of finance.

If you would dig around the forums a bit, you should find that aminorex is one of the most knowledgeable posters around here. His way of stuffing tons of abstract concepts into one sentence might seem like pseudo-intellectual gibberish to some, but that's just because they don't see what the hell he means. I, too have my troubles with that sometimes

(I think he's the only poster ever whose intelligence got acknowledged by AnonyMint, that's got to count for something lol   )

Well, then the account of this highly intelligent individual has been compromised by an moronic jackass who he can't even understand how USD is actually THE thing that gives value to BTC?

Another example of your truly either NOT knowing what da fuck you are talking about or that you are purposefully just attempting to incite other posters.

At least try to debate against my arguments, not just make another failed attempt to insult me.
Have a cigarette, read a book, make some notes, relieve yourself from the anxiety of not getting rich without any work or education, and then try really hard. Please..

Yeah.. YOU would love to drag a variety of posters down your bullshit superficial and already debunked framings of the situation.  

That is NOT an intellectual exercise or a meaningful debate, it is a waste of time.  

I already know your MO.  As soon as anybody attempts to reasonably discuss your assertions with you, then you will either change the facts or change the topic or come up with some other bullshit highly speculative scenario that has little to NO basis in reality.  

In conclusion, largely a waste of time to accept many of your framings of the situation  b/c you are far from being genuine in any kind of attempt to deal in the real world and to account for actual facts.

The facts here are simple. BTC price is dependant on USD and it can be seen by merchants not willing to accept BTC without BitPay converting them right to USD. To those merchants, BTC is useless as a currency because it's not able to keep price stability. Only use they have for BTC is for marketing reasons and a possibility to lure in those who worship BTC.

Now, go, run boy. Buy yourself a brain and try to debate that.

[podyx]

The facts here are simple. BTC price is dependant on USD and it can be seen by merchants not willing to accept BTC without BitPay converting them right to USD. To those merchants, BTC is useless as a currency because it's not able to keep price stability. Only use they have for BTC is for marketing reasons and a possibility to lure in those who worship BTC.

Now, go, run boy. Buy yourself a brain and try to debate that.

Just wow... How the fuck did we get the most stupid fucking people in one fucking place? lol

Yes, I am looking at you bears...

[roslinpl]

We are heading to the airstrip

~$456 and rising! Today - charts are better than any action movie

[Davyd05]

So refrain from quoting him or her, hit ignore and realize as I have lately that name calling and swearing detracts from the point you wish to make.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

The facts here are simple. BTC price is dependant on USD and it can be seen by merchants not willing to accept BTC without BitPay converting them right to USD.

Now, go, run boy. Buy yourself a brain and try to debate that.

How does "being able to change BTC for X" --> "BTC is dependent on X"
In your "logic" couldn't you say that the BTC price is dependent on JPY too?
Of course merchants (and especially those with low margins) will want to have the smallest exchange risk possible and for now exchange BTC for the lower volatility currencies (ie traditional fiat).
But more importantly, how do you think BTC gets its price?

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

The facts here are simple. BTC price is dependant on USD and it can be seen by merchants not willing to accept BTC without BitPay converting them right to USD. To those merchants, BTC is useless as a currency because it's not able to keep price stability. Only use they have for BTC is for marketing reasons and a possibility to lure in those who worship BTC.

Now, go, run boy. Buy yourself a brain and try to debate that.

Just wow... How the fuck did we get the most stupid fucking people in one fucking place? lol

Yes, I am looking at you bears...

Aaand... we have another weak attempt to insult, without actually trying to debate the initial point that was made here.

[KFR]

People feeding the trolls again I see.   

[Spaceman_Spiff]

That's no bear mask, that's a full on troll-mask. Just completely giving up on the "researching" schtick I see.

Why a troll? I am very skeptical that Bitcoin will succeed, I already explained why I think so.

You are no troll Stolfi, just a bear.
PS: Your "bull-mask" prediction indicate a 20% chance of staying between 400$ and 500$ this year.  Given bitcoin's volatility I think that is highly unlikely. I would take you up on a bet if I didn't already know the answer was no  .

People feeding the trolls again I see.  

I like to think some of the trolls here are just misguided and selfrighteous bears, who might listen to reason in the end.  Sorry for probably being naive  .

[JorgeStolfi]

Approximate annual inflation rates since Jan/2014:
[ ... ]

O.k.  You are very selective with the period of time that you selected.  

Why don't you compare the inflation or deflation over various periods of time to put your numbers into a more accurate context... for example compare the period that you selected (January 2014 to April 2014) with April 2013 to April 2014 and/or compare your period with January 2011 to April 2014.  [ ... ]

I already posted a full complete graph of that. Twice.

With this, you are attempting to spin and to spread FUD.

"FUD" as in "Facts and Undeniable Data"?

EDIT: rm bougus "/quote"

[podyx]

Aaand... we have another weak attempt to insult, without actually trying to debate the initial point that was made here.

I don't need to do anything but to tell you that you are wrong
I'm reading some of the most stupid arguments i've ever witnessed on this forum. Did you even think at all when posting?

It is a currency/asset which have had a ROI of 120,000 and nobody still barely have a clue where it is going, OF COURSE it will be volatile. Why can't you understand volatility will be reduced alot if it were to succeed

It's kinda if I were to make a drink in my basement that would sell better then coca cola and wonder why i'm not a billionaire yet

No offence though, its all neighborhood

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

The facts here are simple. BTC price is dependant on USD and it can be seen by merchants not willing to accept BTC without BitPay converting them right to USD.

Now, go, run boy. Buy yourself a brain and try to debate that.

How does "being able to change BTC for X" --> "BTC is dependent on X"
In your "logic" couldn't you say that the BTC price is dependent on JPY too?
Of course merchants (and especially those with low margins) will want to have the smallest exchange risk possible and for now exchange BTC for the lower volatility currencies (ie traditional fiat).
But more importantly, how do you think BTC gets its price?

Actually yes, because JPY in turn is highly dependent on USD. Most of the dominant world currencies are strongly tied together and if one starts to fall, then it will start to take down the entire network.
When a currency has high risks of volatility, then it's a low quality currency. Merchants are not accepting BTC because it is a low quality currency. Just like it was hard to do business with Z$, that was also a low quality currency, so the merchants preferred to deal with the foreign USD because it was of higher quality.

BTC gets it's price because it is tradeble to USD and to the other fiat currencies that are also dependant on USD. Go pick up a book and read on what does it mean that USD is the most dominant world reserve currency and what effect does it give to other fiat currencies.

As long as there isn't a supplier of major resources, that is ready to accept BTC as it is, then BTC is just a gimmick that is unable to give itself value without fiat.

[JayJuanGee]

Dreamspark: 

How many coins are you thinking is "plenty?"

Anyone with 3,000 plus BTC can live fairly comfortable with passive income from that investment, even at today's seemingly quasi-suppressed BTC prices.    Given the ongoing uncertainties and volatility of BTC, it seems that 3,000 or more BTC would provide a bit of a cushion built in for living passively and taking an approximate 4% annual distribution.  Though if all of my investment was in BTC, and I was expecting to live passively off 3,000 BTC, I would have to diversify out of some of those holdings to feel comfortable... maybe less than 50% in BTC.

If an investor has fewer than the equivalent of 3,000 BTC contributing to his passive income, then s/he may still need to continue to work to build that nest egg.  And, if that person has even higher financial aspirations then that's another story.

What made you arrive at 3k BTC (at today's exchange rate $1.38M, or 1M Euro) as the cut-off point for living off passive income?

That 3k BTC number was kind of floating in my head based on one of my recent posts in another thread.

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=12156.msg6207547#msg6207547


I do NOT really mean that number as a cut-off point b/c I certainly realize that there are a lot of different people with a variety of expectations pertaining to how much passive income they would need to live comfortably... or even within their previous income / lifestyle range (more or less). 

I understand that some people can feel that they are living fairly comfortable off of $10K per year, and others would feel impoverished if they were living off of $100K per year.

The 3k BTC number was kind of within my current considerations of an aspiration at least in today's circumstances and based on some of my own personal considerations.

[Spaceman_Spiff]

And about bets, you know Pascal's Bet for sure.  What is the probability that handling bitcoin will get one's soul sent to Hell for eternity?  Since that is either true or false, and we have no information, we must assume it is 50%....  

I know you are not being serious, and saying we have no information is false, but just for the hell of it:
Even if we are completely ignorant of everything except for the fact that one can handle bitcoin, I think 6.25 % is a better estimation, given that your premise consists of multiple assumptions:
I divided them into 4 [1. there is a hell; 2. one has a soul; 3. given that there is a soul and a hell, souls can go to hell for eternity; 4. given 1.2. &3., handling bitcoin will get one's soul to hell for eternity] but probably by defining the question better, more assumptions can be identified.

[coins101]

China trying to go higher.

I was in the bear camp at £300.

I hang my head in shame. It has survived China censorship and centrally controlled free market capitalism.

Never again will I doubt, The Bitcoin.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[JayJuanGee]

This is a very dangerous game. The levered shorts are hoping another China crash will come before they are force liquidated and the levered longs are counting on the shorts getting liquidated before the crash. Smart players like TERA are long but not levered, ready to pull the trigger and profit either way and I'm on the sidelines watching and learning.

The swap fees amount to somewhere around 60% annual interest. The pressure is building and is going to blow one way or the other.

The bear market didn't suddenly end because some exchange decided to invest in ATMs. China isn't suddenly irrelevant. A SUSTAINED reversal isn't something that happens this quickly with no big news. If it happens at all it happens slowly as utility value replaces speculative value.

The question every wise investor asks themselves is "Is time my friend or my enemy?" If time is your enemy, chances are you are on the wrong side of the trade.

I'm inclined to agree with you, but there has been unexplained reversals in the past (or rather, you find out the news after the run-up, which seems more likely these days with institutional money). Nice volume today though, gonna be an exciting week it seems.

and the idea that there has been plenty of good news and progress buried in the fear of China's policy making methods

There has been plenty of good news and progress, but the fundamentals haven't changed overnight by 17%.  Fear of Gox closing dominated until it closed. Fear of China crashing will dominate until it crashes. If it doesn't crash, that fear will weigh on the market until some even bigger fear weighs on the market. Satoshi coins entering market, FBI coins, another exchange getting hacked or closing, regulatory doomsday, another prominent Bicoin personality getting arrested, or maybe someone just happens to find their four year old hard drive with hundreds of thousands of coins on it.  

Good news doesn't mean as much in a bear market. People are looking for an excuse to sell, not to buy. There are people with substantial holdings without enough cash to wait out an extended bear market. They are selling little amounts to get by, extending the bear market. Things have to get worse before they get better. Capital has to move from incompetent managers to competent managers. That's why it's called a "correction".

We are in a bear market because good news are disregard, it will be the other way around when we will resume the bull market

Odds are we will dip again soon, it is way more likely than the scenario where we are already coming back up but at some point we will come back up and it will be crazy

There is a lot of potential for a big negative event such as the mtgox shut down but there is at least as much potential for a big positive event and I feel that we can overcome most big negative events when positive events will have a positive effect long term; the potential is so huge, 450$/BTC feels like a steal to me

$450 should be a steal, but it's not. The investing public is fickle. Nothing succeeds like success and nothing fails like failure. There is no certainty, but investing based on "feelings" usually doesn't pay as well and investing based on asymmetric information (insider trading). If you have a well diversified portfolio of more than $100,000 dollars, now would be a good time to buy a little, but obviously not as good of a time as two days ago @ $340. The risk is that you might have to wait a long time for your bet to pay off.. How long can you afford to wait?

I think Big Money is buying bitcoin right now, but they are buying off exchange and they are buying below market from miners. Those coins are just as likely to get dumped on the exchange for a guaranteed profit as they are to be held if some new disaster strikes. Buying right now may be a good long term investment, but it's an extremely risky short term speculation.  What if the Overstock stockholders pressure the CEO to stop accepting bitcoin or something similar happens?

John Maynard Keynes was a flawed economist in my opinion, but he was one of the very few to actually make a fortune in the markets. He said "Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent". Many people have been force liquidated already and it's quite possible many more will be in the future. Bitcoin is a fantastic asset, but it is not worth risking insolvency over. We need financially healthy enthusiasts to form the base for the next rally, not bug-eyed gamblers.  

I want bitcoin to go strait up from here, but I've been in this game for over three years and my experience tells my it's unlikely. Possible, but unlikely. TERA is an excellent trader who makes money in bull and bear markets. She understands order flows better than I do. When she says she thinks this probably isn't a final bottom, I believe her.

I used to play poker and I discovered that it's quite possible to make money in a game even if you know you aren't the best player. You just have to know who that player is and you have to stay out of his way. The one thing I know for sure in this market is that I'm not the best player. I may not even be a good player. I've learned a lot, but perhaps the most important thing I've learned is how little I know.

Being ignorant isn't dangerous. What is dangerous is being ignorant and unaware of your ignorance. People are likely going to be insolvent before this is over. Intellectually I know that it's ultimately a good thing and has to happen, but I'm not quite calloused enough to enjoy it. Maybe that's why I gave up poker.

Why don't you place your current predictions into the rpeitila prediction box? in order that we can see how your various probability allocations stack up.

[solex]

e) In 2014, price will visit above 500 = 30%

This is ridiculous. The price has been above $500 for >80%  of 2014 and is only 10% away from $500 right now. The odds that it will trade at some point over $500 this year must be more like 90% than 30%.

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

Aaand... we have another weak attempt to insult, without actually trying to debate the initial point that was made here.

I don't need to do anything but to tell you that you are wrong
I'm reading some of the most stupid arguments i've ever witnessed on this forum. Did you even think at all when posting?

It is a currency/asset which have had a ROI of 120,000 and nobody still barely have a clue where it is going, OF COURSE it will be volatile. Why can't you understand volatility will be reduced alot if it were to succeed

It's kinda if I were to make a drink in my basement that would sell better then coca cola and wonder why i'm not a billionaire yet

No offence though, its all neighborhood

And more some weak attempts to insult + some weird rant that has nothing to do with the subject in question:

BTC is dependant on USD and would join the meltdown with USD if that would happen.

In another note.. I'll add my rant..
I just discovered that over time, tools like you have actually made me dislike BTC. I really used to like BTC, but after the endless conversations with the uneducated and inexperienced religious zealots, who are both ignorant and arrogant at the same time, I think that BTC would actually just be about wealth redistribution to the worse. People here are reminding me of Bolsheviks more and more. A bunch of half-witted individuals who are after personal gain with wealth/power redistribution while trying to mask it with talks of liberty and freedom.