Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[RoadTrain]

btc-e 530 LOL!!!

yer WTF?

Short squeeze most likely.

[podyx]

I get the same feeling I had when we passed $100 last year and just kept going after being down to $70

[rpietila]

Right now these markets are like 98% day traders just following each other around in circles. There is no fresh fiat coming in anywhere (and by "no" I mean no substantial bull market fiat).

evidence please. prove there is no fresh fiat. order books are growing every day.

windjc and others haven't probably considered the effect that Gox and other exchanges' fall has had on the market landscape:

- It has made people wary on sending fiat to exchange, yes (this is the visible effect).
- But it has also made them search for and use the alternatives (this is the invisible effect).

Lots of trade is happening in services like Bittiraha.fi, who make markets locally (and local = Europe in this case). Judging the volume from exchange data is hilarious. Equally hilarious is the day when the positive balance of the local market-making hits the exchanges. That demand is in the form of market orders.

I for one think that the exchanges are a drag on Bitcoin's longer-term health (and have been on this line since $50). Consequently, I think that the development that people don't trust the exchanges any more is good.

Why I try to exhort people buy now is that you deserve it (after so much pain and misinformation)! Reading this thread only and following the prevalent mood would have made you buy at $1000 and sell at $400, but the reverse is how you make money.

Thanks Risto.
so while fresh fiat may not be entering, do you think there may be a surprise shortage of bitcoins to satisfy margin calls? (due to accumulation off exchanges - the invisible effect)

Fresh fiat is entering all the time, I see it in the grassroots level. But less and less of it is going through the exchanges, even I don't solicit them any more, and I try to make my personal purchases off them. The exchange price IS the market price, but market price is manipulated, and it is even more easier to do now, as honest people don't trust their money to the exchanges any more (less bitcoins for same effect).

This causes volatility, and we already went relatively lower than in any point during summer-2013. But it works both ways - also the surprises to the upside can, may and will happen as a result of the tail-wags-dog dynamic that we have.

It is so easy if you just play with the money that you can lose, disconnect emotion, hold, sell high and buy low.

[TERA]

i gonna miss all the china fud and bearish sentiments  

but maybe this is just a big trap, we will see  

You can probably count on unexpected chinese news to continue happening. It will always be a feature of the market as long as China remains.

[dreamspark]

btc-e 530 LOL!!!

yer WTF?

Short squeeze most likely.

Weird to feel squeezed up to $550 when Huobi is still sub $500.

[tarmi]

time to short

[magicmexican]

Any source to see the current logarithmic trendline?

[dreamspark]

time to short

Maybe, but thats dangerous while the rally stil has legs.

[runam0k]

time to short

Good luck with that.

[TERA]

btc-e 530 LOL!!!

yer WTF?

Short squeeze most likely.

Weird to feel squeezed up to $550 when Huobi is still sub $500.

Keep in mind btce went to $102 in February also.

[rpietila]

Any source to see the current logarithmic trendline?

There are 3 trendlines that try to map the whole history:
- mine
- SlipperySlope's
- jl2012
(ofc nobody owns the numbers but we update them)

You mean some of these or some other?

[windjc]

Bedtime. Maybe my shorts will fill before I wake!  

[FNG]

Bedtime. Maybe my shorts will fill before I wake!  

They will

[podyx]

Some consolidation here before we run to $600-650

[rpietila]

What is currently the largest exchange by volume? I was just thinking that an easy way to verify the volumes is to check the orderbook depth. Eg. now huobi depth < 0.5*BS depth.

[podyx]

BS depth? what does that mean?

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

Bedtime. Maybe my shorts will fill before I wake!  

LOL it seems that your shorts are pushed up minute by minute. Were not they at 500-510 range? So much fear?  

[magicmexican]

Any source to see the current logarithmic trendline?

There are 3 trendlines that try to map the whole history:
- mine
- SlipperySlope's
- jl2012
(ofc nobody owns the numbers but we update them)

You mean some of these or some other?

Ye i mean some of these

[dreamspark]

BS depth? what does that mean?

Bidside Depth ?

[JayJuanGee]

I don't have any clue wtf to do now.

I bought my first btc at around 680 because there were "cheap coins."

I bought more on the way down to 500 to "cost average"

I put almost my entire savings at 480

Then everyone said if it broke 400 we were screwed and there was NO good news from China at all so I sold at 399.

So wtf do I do now? I've lost thousands and the money hasn't hit my bank account so I can't even buy back in. Wtf do i do?

You already did the wrong thing by going all in or all out.. in my thinking. 

You have to chose what to do based on your own risk profile and goals and diversification with other investments.

Even if you buy all back in now, there is no guarantee that the price is gonna continue to go up and you may lose again.  I started buying at $1200 and my average buy in price is $613-ish including fees.  Sure I am still in the red, and  I have more fiat to buy more.. but at times I have felt very stretched.. so I am glad that the market is finally going back up... but still NO guarantees with any of this.

I would begin a more sensible strategy that works for you and that you do NOT engage in panic buying or panic selling.. your strategy may differ from mine, but you need to find the one that works for you.

To the OP.  I have never agreed with JayJuanGee on any major point.  But he is correct here.

The most important lesson is patience.   Patience lessons are expensive ones, but they're lessons you rarely forget.   I have sold at the bottom in the past,  I make mostly successful trades but have also made some serious errors.  

We may need to have a virtual man hug, here... 


I have made quite a few mistakes, but I try to make them within a tolerance level that is acceptable to me... for example, i may buy or sell 1 bitcoin, even though I have ability to buy or sell 10 bitcoins at that moment.  It's a form of hedging my bet within my tolerance.  Sometimes it pays off pretty well, and other times, I could have gotten a higher payout.    Anyhow, that largely suits my style... unless I feel that I really know the variables and probabilities.

I know some other people who subscribe to an all or nothing approach and follow that.  Sometimes they get very lucky, but I do NOT have psychological tolerance to follow such a method.  Now, of course, there are rare situations in which all or nothing is the only reasonable choice based on the situation and the knowledge that i have about that particular decision.... and we each have to determine for ourselves which situations fit the all or nothing or the gradual approach for us.