Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[p0peji]

So now we wait until the so called Chinese wake up again to start trading?

[ShroomsKit_Disgrace]

So now we wait until the so called Chinese wake up again to start CCMFing?

FTFY

[EuroTrash]

So now we wait until the so called Chinese wake up again to start trading?

We will know soon enough

[Azeh]

you guys are so full of shit..

..for a moment I forgot this is the trollbox

Agreed, I don't believe anything these jokers here say.  Nothing but verbal diarrhea in order to justify past decisions or else attempt to manipulate others for future gains.

Don't forget the ever important post count and activity increase...

Well, I guess ChartBuddy is a pretty straight dude...lol

[Adrian-x]

Have you bought some BTC's already?

I have been doubling my BTC holdings every day since December. 

Please check my maths 0 x 2 = 0

Jorge I see a few who have lost a lot shoring on the bad news, had they followed the accepted Bitcoin investment strategy they could profit. Bitcoin is a revolution not a ponzi, if you invented a better currency the elephant in the room is how do you distribute it in a fair and efficient way that is what is happening in Bitcoin land today. Skeptics like you made me question my understanding, it wasn't until I read an article written about 10 years before bitcoin posted on bitcointalk how the scarcity of gold facilities it's ability to be a communal store of wealth. (I wish I could find it I've tried a few times) Skeptics like you made one question there understanding, and do things like sell at the bottom as they come around to seeing the viewpoint presented, but without understand the full picture Bitcoin remains a binary invention. Your efforts could negatively affect those who make the mistake of being greedy and investing more than they are willing to lose.

Bitcoin investment advice.
Don't invest more than you are willing to lose.
Buy low sell high
and learn to hodl.  
Sell a little in every bubble.

The outcome from the strategy above is if Bitcoin fails tomorrow or in 20 years you lost nothing of value.
If it is successful you can reap a reward, how well you hold represent orders of magnitude in return.

All the scams are just necessary vaccinations, it's wrong in my view to tell people to live in this plastic bubble (lawful growth economy of environmental destruction) where everything is safe because in the real world it isn't. We need scam immunity. Living like a parasite in a growth economy is the biggest scam ever perpetrated. Bitcoin is just one small experiment nothing to avoid, if successful it rewards participants.

I hate scanner and manipulators as much as you do but I know in Bitcoin land a honest measure of wealth that evolves organically will develop an immunity to such things, this belief comes from systems that evolve naturally the foundation or our consciousness.

[p0peji]

So now we wait until the so called Chinese wake up again to start trading?

We will know soon enough

What I dont understand though is that according to some people there is a massive influx of money from the west into the BTC environment, still we dont seem to be able to start our own rally on one of the western exchanges.

[fonzie]

I can smell a dumpload of chinese coins incoming.

[jonoiv]

So now we wait until the so called Chinese wake up again to start trading?

We will know soon enough

I recon it will play out like this..   (just my opinion)

[freebit13]

Well, I guess ChartBuddy is a pretty straight dude...lol

At least ChartBuddy posts useful information...

[Bronstad]

I can smell a dumpload of chinese coins incoming.

Might want to check your pants first.

[rpietila]

The price will go down, because this spike wasn't caused by new money entering the system, but by moving around of some money that was already in the system. And it's not a lot that's in, so it was only a matter of time when the rise gets exhausted and starts to fall back. I think that we will see some low volume aftershock waves today, and maybe even tomorrow, but it won't be long when the price drops back to sub 400. As long as there isn't new money coming in, then it's a bad call to just sit on BTC. Only thing to hope for is that the drop will be fast and not slow and ugly, like it has been for the past months.

While such analysis might hold true for a short time such as a few months, it nevertheless remains that since the end of 2009, Bitcoin userbase has grown 10,000x and its price 100,000x.

By betting that the downtrend will continue, you are betting against exponential growth. Why would you do it?

Are you saying that it has suddenly become much more difficult than before to reach the next order of magnitude of userbase and, hence, valuation? And saying that in the exact relative low point of the price according to the trend so far? And that Bitcoin userbase will actually stop growing and start shrinking? Now? It's almost discounted in price btw   Man, you got to be kidding!

This one stands unrefuted, you may try:

The market today does not give more than 12% probability of that happening; probably much less than that.

That's why I am buying and telling others to buy.

Bitcoin has a long and glorious history that its price has had nothing to do with long-term expected value. My estimate of scenario-probability-weighted discounted 2020 value of 1 bitcoin is about $500,000 and the fact that the majority of players in the market think differently, is my advantage.

And I am quite sure I know the reason for that. It is the extreme information asymmetry between Bitcoin owners and non-owners. (To simplify,) Bitcoin owners know that bitcoins are very valuable, and they buy and hold as much as they can. But as a result of their price going up, it forces people to sell, not because they don't trust Bitcoin, or expect the EV to be anything less than $100k or whatever in a few years, but because their entire net worth consists of bitcoins and it is rational to diversify (cf. Kelly betting). Even if the price goes down, these true believers cannot buy much more because the same optimal allocation strategy holds true.

The ones who don't own bitcoins, don't know it is good They are converting to bitcoiners at an exponential rate, though (see my previous post, and this thread for the ownership distribution). This increasing adoption gives the steam to the rise of price, in a self-sustaining virtuous cycle.

First only very few people knew about Bitcoin, and they were technologically astute and early adopter type. Many could start using Bitcoin immediately upon hearing. In the second phase more people heard, but they were, on average, slower. In the third phase or so, in which I belong, I heard and it took me 12 months to buy. In the next one, people who heard in 2011, propelled the boom in 2013 because their average decision making time was even longer. In the whole of 2013, especially the time around the peaks, 100s of millions of people heard about Bitcoin. On average, these people are even slower than previous ones, perhaps taking on average 24 months to enter (and also a smaller percentage of them enters). But they are so many! There is nothing you can really do to prevent the fraction of these people adopting Bitcoin, and by doing it, their action increases the price again by a decade, letting the rest of the planet to hear about it and putting hundreds of millions of people in the pipeline.

Bitcoiners know it, the rest don't. The price does not go to $1 million in an instant because only the ones who realize the above thing, can push the price up, but it will nevertheless go there eventually, because the above thing is a self-sustaining loop. Therefore buying bitcoins when you read and realize it, is the most lopsided bet you can ever make. You can actually pay $460 for something whose EV (expected value = average payback of all scenarios weighted by their probabilities) is in between $100k and $1M+. ONLY the fact that people realize this one at a time, slowly but exponentially, keeps the bitcoin price "at check", growing at an average of 1000% per year, for 5+ years now.

My wealth is dependent on the above being true. Nobody has explained to me, why it is not so. The stage is yours!

[Davyd05]

So now we wait until the so called Chinese wake up again to start trading?

We will know soon enough

What I dont understand though is that according to some people there is a massive influx of money from the west into the BTC environment, still we dont seem to be able to start our own rally on one of the western exchanges.

yeah lots of money has gone in, I've seen people on stamp grab a 1000 coins at market before the dumps...this example covers both my points. Smart money doesn't rush into the market generally speaking, they're going to wait for China's ability to crash us 100+ on social media leaks to subside while being on the sidelines picking up coins on the bottoms of these crashes. After that they might make some market buys depending on their perceived growth patterns. It is silly, terribly silly to market buy anything above 250k when sheeple feel as if they're walking on thin ice..

[niothor]

That's probably your breath, instead of coins... you're smelling. It's coming from your mouth just below your nose.

Fonsie?  Oh really? Is the cloning never going to end?

[EuroTrash]

That's probably your breath, instead of coins... you're smelling. It's coming from your mouth just below your nose.

Fonsie?  Oh really? Is the cloning never going to end?

I have to admit, were I a troll, I'd be deeply honoured of having trolls distorting my username in order to troll me back.
Bit like a B-movie gone so popular that it has its own pisstake B-movie.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[jonoiv]

No volume.. everyone in bed then at 2:03 am (in China),  all those mini dumps.  What is scary 400BTC was almost enough to move the market.  

[billyjoeallen]

That's probably your breath, instead of coins... you're smelling. It's coming from your mouth just below your nose.

Fonsie?  Oh really? Is the cloning never going to end?

I have to admit, were I a troll, I'd be deeply honoured of having trolls distorting my username in order to troll me back.
Bit like a B-movie gone so popular that it has its own pisstake B-movie.

imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

[BBmodBB]

BTC = moon and MARS!!!*confirmed* (: weeeeee

[Mervyn_Pumpkinhead]

By betting that the downtrend will continue, you are betting against exponential growth. Why would you do it?

It's funny how you phrase your question. Reminds me of arguments like "If you're not a Christian, then you're against god" or "If you don't agree with the United States of America, then you are against democracy".

To clear up what I'm saying here. I am not betting against exponential growth in general and I can't even imagine how one could do that. I am telling, that I'm not sure if bitcoin can grow much larger. It has trouble passing certain critical thresholds that are needed for further growth. Exponential growth only applies, if there are needed qualities and influences that allow it to grow. Exponential growth isn't something that is bitcoins god given right, that is written in stone and will happen no matter what.

Are you saying that it has suddenly become much more difficult than before to reach the next order of magnitude of userbase and, hence, valuation?

Yes, that's exactly what I'm saying! It's not 2011 anymore where the price could be held up by youngesters and eager gamblers, who have no idea on what they're doing. You can't just draw lines on the graphs with adding a lot of meaningless numbers and calculations to give the prediction more weight. You can't just pump the price a little to jumpstart a sustainable rise  
Bitcoin is too bloated for it to be sustained by people who would fall for these simple tricks. There has to be a lot more weight then that, to prove the value of bitcoin to those people, who would decide over the sums needed to start a sustainable rise.

And saying that in the exact relative low point of the price according to the trend so far?

I really don't care about the trend of the previous years, because bitcoin was a different animal altogether over just about 18 months ago. The tresholds were different, the investors were different and it's practical use was different.

I think that the problem is, that the older generation of bitcoin adopters want everything to be as simple as it was couple of years ago, and they try to force the same simplistic view of things onto the market. And if it won't fit, then there will be a lot of whining or talks about conspiracies on why didn't it fit.
I would recommend this: try to evolve, try to see how bitcoin has evolved and how the trendline that applied to 2012 won't fit at 2014. And if you try to make it fit by force, then you're only messing up the market by creating a lot of confusion and uncertainty. This is not a precious metal, this is an highly experimental piece of technology, that doesn't have a ready built framework to enter society. Try to grasp that, dude.

[jonoiv]

Correct, I made some "sentence building" mistake there, but it seems that the message came across. Since English is not my native tongue, I'm not going to loose any sleep over such a ridiculous mistake...

Sorry if I offended you.  

I just find it strange that there are all these "tribute trolls" on the forum, so i thought it would be funny to try and troll the troll's troll.  

 I'm guessing this is not your main account.