Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[windjc]

I'm not changing my position on this.

Either there is enough fiat sitting on the sidelines in exchanges to put us into a bull market or we are still in a bear market. I just do not believe there is enough new fiat coming in to take us anywhere far.  I do think that new fiat will catch up in the months to come, but right now this just feels like a collective effort of traders pushing the price up because they so strongly want to believe post-340 means bull.

We have been above the linear trendline in Houbi for 2 days. However, that trendline has been broken and readjusted over 4 times since the bear market started. We sit right on the linear trendline of Bitstamp and still a good ways below the logarithmic trendline on Stamp.

How far can old exchange money take us?  600? 650? I don't know. But even if we get there, it doesn't mean we are in a bull market long term.

I still believe we test 400 one more time. And all it would take would be some more news from China. And who here believes we have heard the last from there?

This rally has all kinds of red flags on it. I am willing to be wrong, though, and if I am it will be a great learning experience. I'd love to load the boats to $2000+, but something just feels really off about this right now.

I do believe that we became way oversold - basically the opposite of what is happening now - traders just turned in their BTC for fiat temporarily. But now everyone is leveraged long. How much fiat is left and how far can it take us?

[chessnut]

an equally good question, how many bitcoins are left on the exchanges?

large players that are accumulating off exchanges due to broken trust could be holding a lot of coins right now. there may be a surprise shortage for short bears.

[TERA]

Meanwhile, at cryptsy...

[aminorex]

dark sell right now

[Richy_T]

How much fiat is left and how far can it take us?

Why, 238,900 miles, of course.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[windjc]

an equally good question, how many bitcoins are left on the exchanges?

large players that are accumulating off exchanges due to broken trust could be holding a lot of coins right now. there may be a surprise shortage for short bears.

I don't think the world is short of bitcoins at the moment. This is just an example of wanting to believe that there is an explanation.

[silverfuture]

How much fiat is left and how far can it take us?

Why, 238,900 miles, of course.

Next stop... fiat will take us somewhere between  56 million kilometers and 401 million kilometers. Fiat is unlimited. Welcome to scarcity.

[chessnut]

an equally good question, how many bitcoins are left on the exchanges?

large players that are accumulating off exchanges due to broken trust could be holding a lot of coins right now. there may be a surprise shortage for short bears.

I don't think the world is short of bitcoins at the moment. This is just an example of wanting to believe that there is an explanation.

and yet you believe there is a shortage of fiat? there is no shortage of fiat, 75 billion printed by the fed each month. There is shortage of bitcoins. look on both sides of the equation. we are talking about on the exchanges. Id be glad if you could tell me just how many bitcoins are on the exchanges. I only know how many there are certainly not.

[windjc]

Volume drying up on Houbi.

Either this means the rally is temporarily over and its time to test some deeper Fib lines OR it means there are no sellers and the market is resting before continuing up.

I give it 50/50 either way.

[windjc]

an equally good question, how many bitcoins are left on the exchanges?

large players that are accumulating off exchanges due to broken trust could be holding a lot of coins right now. there may be a surprise shortage for short bears.

I don't think the world is short of bitcoins at the moment. This is just an example of wanting to believe that there is an explanation.

and yet you believe there is a shortage of fiat? there is no shortage of fiat, 75 billion printed by the fed each month. There is shortage of bitcoins. look on both sides of the equation. we are talking about on the exchanges. Id be glad if you could tell me just how many bitcoins are on the exchanges. I only know how many there are certainly not.

I dont believe there is a shortage of fiat. I just think there is a shortage of fiat arriving daily into the exchanges. And I have no idea whats happening off exchange, except what SecondMarket data provides.

[Mythul]

So far I think the rally is taking a break. I'm wondering what will happen next week...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation

[niothor]

Volume drying up on Houbi.

Either this means the rally is temporarily over and its time to test some deeper Fib lines OR it means there are no sellers and the market is resting before continuing up.

I give it 50/50 either way.

Or finally they stop faking that volume , but that is just wishful thinking I admit.
The moment we stop taking chinese exchanges seriously we're out of this mess.

[JorgeStolfi]

For whatever it is worth, here are price plots of the April 2013 and November 2013 "bubbles":


The plots were clipped from bitcoincharts.com and colorized with gimp to improve contratst.  The left one was stretched vertically 8% with gimp to get both on the same vertical log scale (~1208 pixels/decade).  The strokes show the high/low intervals in each 3-day period.

For a better comparison one should use the mean price, weighted with a smoothing kernel.  May do that.

[niothor]

For whatever it is worth, here are price plots of the April 2013 and November 2013 "bubbles":


The plots were clipped from bitcoincharts.com and colorized with gimp to improve contratst.  The left one was stretched vertically 8% with gimp to get both on the same vertical log scale (~1208 pixels/decade).  The strokes show the high/low intervals in each 3-day period.

For a better comparison one should use the mean price, weighted with a smoothing kernel.  May do that.

You can stretch them again , use a different time period , change the colors , but no way you can get those too match.

I really don;t understand why people have this need of matching current events with previous ones in order to "see' the future.

[Newfeeling]

You can stretch them again , use a different time period , change the colors , but no way you can get those too match.

I really don;t understand why people have this need of matching current events with previous ones in order to "see' the future.

https://i.imgur.com/WqS5nOa.jpg

[JorgeStolfi]

You can stretch them again , use a different time period , change the colors , but no way you can get those too match.
I really don;t understand why people have this need of matching current events with previous ones in order to "see' the future.

Me neither... 

By the way, what is (are) the prossible explanation(s) for the April 2013 rally?

[Bitcoin_is_here_to_stay]

I'm not changing my position on this.

Either there is enough fiat sitting on the sidelines in exchanges to put us into a bull market or we are still in a bear market. I just do not believe there is enough new fiat coming in to take us anywhere far.  I do think that new fiat will catch up in the months to come, but right now this just feels like a collective effort of traders pushing the price up because they so strongly want to believe post-340 means bull.

We have been above the linear trendline in Houbi for 2 days. However, that trendline has been broken and readjusted over 4 times since the bear market started. We sit right on the linear trendline of Bitstamp and still a good ways below the logarithmic trendline on Stamp.

How far can old exchange money take us?  600? 650? I don't know. But even if we get there, it doesn't mean we are in a bull market long term.

I still believe we test 400 one more time. And all it would take would be some more news from China. And who here believes we have heard the last from there?

This rally has all kinds of red flags on it. I am willing to be wrong, though, and if I am it will be a great learning experience. I'd love to load the boats to $2000+, but something just feels really off about this right now.

I do believe that we became way oversold - basically the opposite of what is happening now - traders just turned in their BTC for fiat temporarily. But now everyone is leveraged long. How much fiat is left and how far can it take us?

Exactly. The reason I am not buying is the lack of willing buyers. At least there is no convincing evidence there is enough to support higher prices.

I am most puzzled by rally on Huobi. I was thinking even earlier that some may actually buy bitcoin as a "last chance", but speculators joining this rally when their government made sure there will be no new money coming? or at least much less than before? Rather puzzling ...


EDIT: Huobi whipsaws, lol
 

[FNG]

OMG CCMF