Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OgNasty]

First time September was positive since 2016!

There’s definitely a feeling in the market that the last cycle was depressed with fraud and maybe this will be the most explosive cycle yet. I’m not sure if that is what will happen or not, but for now it seems like the downward pressure is starting to subside a little bit as we inch up from here over the $27K level.

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[BobLawblaw]

Why would it be their last? Depeche Mode is going to last forever

Fletch was really the only thing keeping Martin and Dave in check.

With him being gone, I don't see what motivates them to continue.

Perhaps the two new band-members are acting as good intermediaries, but Gahan and Gore mix about as well as oil and water behind the scenes.

[AlcoHoDL]

Socrates once said:
"I know that I know nothing."
Yet he knew so much...

To know is to prove.
Christians, Muslims, atheists,
All slaves of dogma.

Craig Wright got the sack?
Should we really be surprised?
We knew that he sucked.

The bear on the bench,
Made me keep my Bitcoin Cash,
Until I saw sense.

Saylor buys again...
Leave some for us, hornet man!
You greedy HoDLer!

Why change ChartBuddy?
Phil keeps it under control.
Just use your scroll-wheel.

Thank you for showing,
Where we HoDLers are going,
OutOfMemory.

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

[...]

I figured that the 2020 to 2021 1/2 ing and bull were great distorted by covid measures.

[...]

FTFY

yeah you snipped and left out what china did when they shut down ½ the miners in the world.

So you simply distorted the post I did.

BTW my wife still had damage lungs 3 years and 10 months after she got covid in dec 2019.

And while my peryonies disease has changed from this shape C to this shape ( every hard on I get shows me what covid can do.

Don't mention the vaccine as both my wife and I got it in Dec 2019.

[SamReomo]

The more you guys talk about the details including how many percent might be a sufficient threshold, the more it seems to be not broken the way that it is, and also Jimbo made a good point about buddy still providing interesting data because it is showing the the walls.

So why be fucking around with a good thing merely because some members seem to not know how to use a scroll wheel.

Fair enough I agree with you. Although it's not a problem for many users of the thread and surely a few people find it interesting to have awareness about the price of the Bitcoin by looking at the charts that our beloved Buddy generates. Let's stick with the old school method of scrolling wheel to avoid multiple charts of Buddy!



If I'm not wrong then we are still at least 10-14 months away from the next bull run. Although, the halving event will take within next 7-8 months but still the bull run may need some more time to start. I'm in firm belief that history will repeat itself once again this time.

[AlcoHoDL]

Black Pumas - Colors

#wosundayfeelgoodtune

[sirazimuth]

....
I never thought about bitcoin as a gamble, but I did consider it a risky bet initially, less so now with all that happened.
Never played scratch tickets, but sometimes buy a ticket when lottery is over a billion...don't know why, really, lol.

Gambling in Vegas is typically not for me either...but I have a funny story about it...many many years back, on my first and the last trip there, in my first game, I put a quarter in the machine and it gave me a royal flush-$250 worth of tokens. I spent some time in the next couple of days (was there on some symposium) gambling away about 2/3 of it in small games, but still went back with almost $100 of free money in my pocket.

Good times...but too much light everywhere.

Reminds me of this "fun fact?"...

Imagine Random Joe goes into the casino and decides to play the roulette wheel until he is up using this simple method...
He bets a dollar on red  (50/50 or thereabouts .The house has a slight edge of course as O is neither red nor black)
and loses when black comes up. He's down a dollar.  He then doubles up and bets red , loses again, down 3 dollars (he's unlucky apparently) so he doubles up again
and bets  $4 on red and finally! Red comes up!  After all, red comes up almost 50% of the time. Joe is now up 1 dollar! (I think, do the math, lol)
Joe now pockets the  dollar walks away and never enters a casino again. That's pretty feasible yes? (well maybe not, most folks gamble away all their "house money" and then some and the casino wins in the end, lol)
But now lets imagine there are a hundred different random joes walking into a casino and doing the exact same thing,
i.e., betting one dollar on the red and doubling up until they win, going up whatever amount, and walk out,
never to walk into or gamble in a casino again. Collectively they would be up one hundred times the amount they each won, lets say for arguments sake, $100.
Ok, now lets take this one more step and just say they are all the same Random Joe. Random Joe is up $100 dollars! (For that matter, you could scale it up any amount)
This leads to the obvious conclusion that random Joe can always win.... right?  
Can anyone point out the fallacy in this scenario because I cant. I even put it to the test years ago and walked out of the casino up 5 dollars. True story.

[Torque]

Everything worthwhile in life is a risk.

Risk nothing, gain nothing.

My whole entire life I've been surrounded by "fence sitters"; they have gained nothing except for the great bullshit powers of pontificating on either what they are going to do, or what they should have done. They do this endlessly as they watch life pass them by.

They consider the risk takers that have gained something as merely "lucky", not as disciplined and with vision and conviction.

[AlcoHoDL]

....
I never thought about bitcoin as a gamble, but I did consider it a risky bet initially, less so now with all that happened.
Never played scratch tickets, but sometimes buy a ticket when lottery is over a billion...don't know why, really, lol.

Gambling in Vegas is typically not for me either...but I have a funny story about it...many many years back, on my first and the last trip there, in my first game, I put a quarter in the machine and it gave me a royal flush-$250 worth of tokens. I spent some time in the next couple of days (was there on some symposium) gambling away about 2/3 of it in small games, but still went back with almost $100 of free money in my pocket.

Good times...but too much light everywhere.

Reminds me of this "fun fact?"...

Imagine Random Joe goes into the casino and decides to play the roulette wheel until he is up using this simple method...
He bets a dollar on red  (50/50 or thereabouts .The house has a slight edge of course as O is neither red nor black)
and loses when black comes up. He's down a dollar.  He then doubles up and bets red , loses again, down 3 dollars (he's unlucky apparently) so he doubles up again
and bets  $8 on red and finally! Red comes up!  After all, red comes up almost 50% of the time. Joe is now up 5 dollars! (I think, do the math, lol)
Joe now pockets the 5 dollars walks away and never enters a casino again. That's pretty feasible yes? (well maybe not, most folks gamble away all their "house money" and then some and the casino wins in the end, lol)
But now lets imagine there are a hundred different random joes walking into a casino and doing the exact same thing,
i.e., betting one dollar on the red and doubling up until they win, going up whatever amount, and walk out,
never to walk into or gamble in a casino again. Collectively they would be up one hundred times the amount they each won, lets say for arguments sake, $500.
Ok, now lets take this one more step and just say they are all the same Random Joe. Random Joe is up $500 dollars! (For that matter, you could scale it up any amount)
This leads to the obvious conclusion that random Joe can always win.... right? 
Can anyone point out the fallacy in this scenario because I cant. I even put it to the test years ago and walked out of the casino up 5 dollars. True story.

You missed an intermediate bet ($4). Yes, Joe will eventually win exactly $1. The problem is that the bets increase exponentially, and this can quickly bankrupt him in case of a long losing streak.

It's called Martingale. More here:

Martingale (betting system)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

....
I never thought about bitcoin as a gamble, but I did consider it a risky bet initially, less so now with all that happened.
Never played scratch tickets, but sometimes buy a ticket when lottery is over a billion...don't know why, really, lol.

Gambling in Vegas is typically not for me either...but I have a funny story about it...many many years back, on my first and the last trip there, in my first game, I put a quarter in the machine and it gave me a royal flush-$250 worth of tokens. I spent some time in the next couple of days (was there on some symposium) gambling away about 2/3 of it in small games, but still went back with almost $100 of free money in my pocket.

Good times...but too much light everywhere.

Reminds me of this "fun fact?"...

Imagine Random Joe goes into the casino and decides to play the roulette wheel until he is up using this simple method...
He bets a dollar on red  (50/50 or thereabouts .The house has a slight edge of course as O is neither red nor black)
and loses when black comes up. He's down a dollar.  He then doubles up and bets red , loses again, down 3 dollars (he's unlucky apparently) so he doubles up again
and bets  $8 on red and finally! Red comes up!  After all, red comes up almost 50% of the time. Joe is now up 5 dollars! (I think, do the math, lol)
Joe now pockets the 5 dollars walks away and never enters a casino again. That's pretty feasible yes? (well maybe not, most folks gamble away all their "house money" and then some and the casino wins in the end, lol)
But now lets imagine there are a hundred different random joes walking into a casino and doing the exact same thing,
i.e., betting one dollar on the red and doubling up until they win, going up whatever amount, and walk out,
never to walk into or gamble in a casino again. Collectively they would be up one hundred times the amount they each won, lets say for arguments sake, $500.
Ok, now lets take this one more step and just say they are all the same Random Joe. Random Joe is up $500 dollars! (For that matter, you could scale it up any amount)
This leads to the obvious conclusion that random Joe can always win.... right?  
Can anyone point out the fallacy in this scenario because I cant. I even put it to the test years ago and walked out of the casino up 5 dollars. True story.

You missed an intermediate bet ($4). Yes, Joe will eventually win exactly $1. The problem is that the bets increase exponentially, and this can quickly bankrupt him in case of a long losing streak.

It's called Martingale. More here:

Martingale (betting system)

Huh! Interesting...especially the anti-martingale.
Consider this quote: "If on the other hand, real-life stock returns are serially correlated (for instance due to economic cycles and delayed reaction to news of larger market participants), "streaks" of wins or losses do happen more often and are longer than those under a purely random process, the anti-martingale strategy could theoretically apply and can be used in trading systems (as trend-following or "doubling up").

There was some youtuber/twitterati ("That Martini Guy") who claimed to "win" big using something similar in the last bull run, but it is probably just the "gambler's fallacy". Besides, one person winning does not make this a valid "strategy", however, if you read the "Reminiscences of a stock operator" (great book!), you would see that Jesse Livermore (who is, apparently, the person the book is based on) always suggested to increase bullish bets when stocks are going up. It worked for him until it didn't in the end, but he actually came up with an interesting mod to the scheme: during the bull streak and as he was "pyramiding" (the word they used for increasing margin), he periodically pinched off a large sum and put it into a irrevocable trust (because he could not stop himself using the money otherwise).
Personally, I gave up on using margin more than 20 years ago (after the "Internet" crash).

TL;DR I did not realize that our bet on cycles repeating is basically a modified anti-martingale strategy.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

Consumption of fine things after either 2024 or 2028 halvings?
..if your position lasts that long:

Example:

in 2015 less than $20 bought you 0.1btc

in 2023 0.1 btc buys you two premiere seats tickets to a U2 concert at the brand new Sphere (Las Vegas) plus a two night stay at the nice suite at Venetian or Palazzo and a two way flight.
Experiences count.

8 years later..in 2031... 0.1btc buys you? A car? Likely... A modest house?..less likely, perhaps.

At that rate, your 20 BTC is going to go quite a long way, and you might not even need $10 million per bitcoin to enjoy them, and also to have them supplement your lifestyle in various ways in small slices at a time.

... two premiere seats tickets to a U2 concert at the brand new Sphere (Las Vegas) plus a two night stay at the nice suite at Venetian or Palazzo and a two way flight......

To each his own I suppose.

not a fan of U2 or presumably conspicuous consumption? ....

Honestly, not my absolute favorable band...actually, I don't have #1.

Don't get me wrong, I  still occasionally click on a U2 vid and turn up the volume.

Attending a live concert? Not so much, no matter who it is.  Maybe if I was 30 years younger...

... or..do you refer to gambling?....

Gamble? naaah... I never indulge in that crap. (unless bitcoin is considered gambling...lol)
I gave my brother shit about that when he visited last week. He's one of those crack scratch ticket addicts.
He always loved to boast to me about his $1000 dollar scratch ticket wins.
Then I asked him... "Bro, how much exactly do you spend daily on those stupid things?"
I never did get straight answer out of him..... Gee, I wonder why? ..lol.
I told him buying lottery tickets is a voluntary tax for the mathematically challenged, and I choose not to pay it.
So take that money you throw away daily and BUY FUCKING BITCOIN!!!  

Yeah, between $10 and $100 per week could have gotten you a pretty good number of cornz in the last 9 years

nearly 4 bitcoin at $10 per week, so we can multiply that by 10 to show our $100 per week amount would end up being nearly 40 BTC.

For sure we have a lot of normies wasting a lot of money on products like that that are designed to raise money for the states.. so they are designed to lose money, but there is a chance that the individual participants could get lucky.. so geez the calculous for bitcoin has been way better, but bitcoin still continues to be a way better calculus, even though so many normies still prefer to put their money into those kinds of losing propositions.. since they are "more fun" or maybe the state is exploiting predispositions that normies have to gamble rather than invest.

Years ago I thought that meant I was really smart. I now know most of us humans are not that clever or smart including myself.

ftfy

your fix is the biggest problem of the human race you think or believe some people are smart enough to understand being human.

Is there an IQ requirement for being human?

Who would-a-thunk?    

Edit:  After a little reflection, I am confused now.  I think that my point, if materially relevant, is tangential at best, to the one that Phil is making?

[Biodom]

First time September was positive since 2016!

Correlation does not mean causation, but...FYI:

Green September in 2012...was followed by a "giant" 2013 (5507%).
Green September in 2015...was followed by a great 2016 (125%).
Green September in 2016...was followed by a "monster" 2017 (1331%).

We shall see  

[WatChe]

Bitcoin reached its ATH on 10 Nov 2021 i.e. 68k$. But if you see monthly return of Nov 2021, its -6.7%.

Bitcoin previous ATH was in Dec 2017 and monthly return of Dec 2017 was 27%.  While monthly return of Nov 2017 and Oct 2017 was 47% and 46% respectively.

ATH doesn't necessarily means you are getting good profit. 

Price at which you buy Bitcoin is what governs your profit.

[sirazimuth]

.....

You missed an intermediate bet ($4). Yes, Joe will eventually win exactly $1. The problem is that the bets increase exponentially, and this can quickly bankrupt him in case of a long losing streak.

It's called Martingale. More here:

Martingale (betting system)

But assume random Joe is rich to begin with.  
So that the odds of black coming up enough times in a row to bankrupt him are astronomically small.
He just keeps going till he's up.
Then starts again with that one dollar. rinse and repeat.
I've heard when high rollers try this strategy, the house shuts them down after they are down and a betting limit has been reached.
So yeah, it doesn't work. What a surprise... lol

(fixed that 4$ bet.. I noticed that too right after posting ...)

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

Guys, guys, guys ('n' gals).

Stop what you're doing and go watch this:

Sisu (2022)

One word: BRUTAL.

Solid entertainment.

Highly recommended for Hero WOers, to see how it's done.

[JayJuanGee]

The bear on the bench,
Made me keep my Bitcoin Cash,
Until I saw sense.

You mean picnic table bear?  

Gosh he can be persuasive.

[edited out]

If I'm not wrong then we are still at least 10-14 months away from the next bull run. Although, the halving event will take within next 7-8 months but still the bull run may need some more time to start. I'm in firm belief that history will repeat itself once again this time.

Of course, no bull run is guaranteed, but when they do end up happening, there does seem to tend to be a kind of rampening up of the process in such a way that it starts out slowly and then gets to be more and more and more, but sometimes even those kinds of rampening ups can become unclear.. take the April to June 2019 run for example... so the UPs and downs can sometimes play out weirdly... or in such a way that the pattern, if any, is not completely clear.

If we end up with a bullrun this time, then surely it will end up becoming easier to explain it after it happens, and I am not even saying that the explanations that will end up coming out will be consistent, and surely some explanations are more believable than others... .

Sometimes it might not be that important to explain why bitcoin did what it did, even though some people seem to have better ideas regarding what it did than others, so that likely gives better ideas for where we might be going too.. .even though many of us recognize and appreciate that ONLY so much weight can be given to historical price movements in regards to being able to get some ideas for what might be in store in the future.. .and surely dangerous to be putting too many eggs (or hopes) into one basket (one view of what might end up happening, when it hasn't happened, yet).