Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[bitcoinPsycho]

https://bitcoinist.com/satoshi-nakamotos-secret-email-emerges/

[JayJuanGee]

This is just start of Uptober BTC breaks the 28k resistance. I want some more pump.

Internationally October name should be change Uptober. What you say?

Uptober is the right word. Bitcoin breaks 28k
It is not still late to buy more bitcoin as we can see
the price wouldn't come down anymore but it will keep on pumping gradually
The halving is 6 months and some weeks from now.
Oh no, I haven't accumulated up to 1BTC
As long as I continue to DCA, no need for panic

Sure.... the more BTC that you have then you will likely be better off, but at the same time, you are right to suggest that it is is NOT a good idea to panic, and you need to go at your own pace in regards to your ongoing BTC accumulation, even if it might end up being at a lower BTC amount during the periods in which the BTC price is going up... yet at the same time, those of us who are into bitcoin and accumulating at these levels (and even if brand new to bitcoin), we are likely way ahead of those who might think that they know about bitcoin but for whatever reason(s) have failed and refused to act in order to stack it.. (even though they are able to do so if they were to merely just take some action).. so ongoing wealth transfer and  there are likely going to be people who are really struggling to get a hold of anything close to a million satoshis when right now a million satoshis can be gotten for less than $300.

they will play this bearish sideways game until no one expects an uptrend anymore.. then boom into disbelief phase
(could take another year)
I have seen this movie too many times...

As the halving gets close the psychological pressure continues to increase.

There's still a group of "what if" people and it's the same group that usually goes FOMO. The people who are like rubber bands that keep on delaying the decision until they can't stand it anymore. The type of people who save up and never do any shopping for a year and then go YOLO and get all the things they wanted throughout the year at one go. I'm sure you know someone like that.

So these "what ifers" are waiting with their money because what if there's a black swan again like in 2020? The closer we get to the halving the less likely this scenario will be and they will finally abandon the thought and get their hands on some bits but that's going to be 40k bits, not 10k like they hoped for.

Just the other day, I used the example of even if the guy who started stacking $100 per week worth of BTC three years ago and got around 0.58 BTC for right around $15,700, is barely at the same place as the guy who could buy the same amount of BTC today for just under $28k.

The guy who started 3 years ago is likely in a much better place to having had already stacked those BTC over the past 3 years at a regular and consistent pace including likely making some curbing of his consumption practices, versus the presumptively financially equivalent guy who might think that he is going to be able to just lump sum into BTC (even assuming that he could actually get his hands on $15,700 to be able to buy BTC right now or to maybe get a bit of a dip or maybe try to figure out how he might want to maximize the quantity of BTC that he is able to be assuredly get with the $15,700 that he presumably has been able to save, if he were to have had even been able to save it up for the past 3 years).

Even someone who is attempting to be somewhat aggressive in his BTC accumulation by investing $100 per week in to bitcoin for three years, may still not otherwise be able to put that quantity of $15,700 together, and that is why it makes so much more sense on a practical level to be regularly attempting to get a bit of BTC (whether aggressively or not) rather than sitting on your hands or even saving up for it and holding those dollars and waiting for a dip hardly seems to be a very active approach, even though in November 2022, $15,700 could have (hypothetically) gotten the same level of economic equivalent guy a whole BTC (but he might have ONLY been able to buy a bit more than $10k at that time, if there is a presumption that he is setting aside $100 per week that is supposed to go to bitcoin - at some point), but we might realize that it would have been difficult for many normies to buy BTC  when it is dipping down in the $15ks, and thinking that it might go lower, in that kind of way in November 2022 for most normal people.. even assuming that they might have been able to have a bit more than $10k saved up at that time under the saving (setting aside of) $100 per week scenario..

[Paashaas]

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[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

they will play this bearish sideways game until no one expects an uptrend anymore.. then boom into disbelief phase
(could take another year)
I have seen this movie too many times...

The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic.  This feels so 2015 (OCT went up 33%) I think the miner relief rally happens this month just like it did in 2015.

or maybe not

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

Why you little...

[avp2306]

they will play this bearish sideways game until no one expects an uptrend anymore.. then boom into disbelief phase
(could take another year)
I have seen this movie too many times...

As the halving gets close the psychological pressure continues to increase.

There's still a group of "what if" people and it's the same group that usually goes FOMO. The people who are like rubber bands that keep on delaying the decision until they can't stand it anymore. The type of people who save up and never do any shopping for a year and then go YOLO and get all the things they wanted throughout the year at one go. I'm sure you know someone like that.

Just another normal reaction where they just join the hype by word when its early but can't take good decision when there's opportunity and get FOMO when everything start that's why those people lose since they miss certain good positions to ride on.

I see lot of people doing this and for sure there's still a lot of people like this will exist on this upcoming halving so for sure they regret their decision for not accumulating and only get chunks when bull run happen.

[Oilacris]

After seeing that 1k jump in a matter of few minutes.
I did have the impression something like this and expecting something in the morning. lol

[philipma1957]

buddy blast

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Yamane_Keto]

The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic.

Some estimates reported in Glassnode say that average block mining costs will be about 30k-40k after bitcoin halving. Are these estimates inaccurate or does the price have to be above 50k to be profitable?

[philipma1957]

The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic.

Some estimates reported in Glassnode say that average block mining costs will be about 30k-40k after bitcoin halving. Are these estimates inaccurate or does the price have to be above 50k to be profitable?

If the current difficulty stands in April miners need 40 to 50 k price .

the top of the line s21 does 200 th  and burns 3.5 kwatts

so 200 x 0.061 = 12.20 usd earned daily

3.5 kwatts is 80 kwatts a day  . 4 cent power means $3.20 cost

So the miner is fine except that he just paid about 4000 to get the machine this month.

at the ½ ing that machine earns 6.10 and burns $3.20.  so if he managed to have all top of the line gear right now he has to buy all new machines which are not in stock.

He could get all s19xp for 3200 right now.

they earn 8.40 a day and burn  3.20

at ½ ing they earn 4.2 a day and burn 3.20 very border line.

In both cases top of the line gear that is costly is needed now as I type.

standard gear is s19j pro

earns 6.40 burns 3.20 okay now
at ½ ing

earns 3.20 burns 3.2 no good for the almost any miner

Since most gear is 100th at 3.2k watts maybe 250-300eh at current price it will lose for almost every miner in the world.

the long term power cost for profit needed has been  six cent power.

i am using 4 cent numbers so I am extra conservative.

basically if we hit the ½ ing at 27-32k and stay there for two months it will be a first.

it is why I look more at 2015 to 2016 mining relief rally to be done from 2023 to 2024.

which means 40-50k in march/ april 2024



this is like t/a. but based on mining numbers.  it is a bit more accurate then t/a as it is less subject to interpretation.


but in 2019 to 2020 it did not happen so i toss it due to covid .


i still think a strong oct move up. this oct.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic.

Some estimates reported in Glassnode say that average block mining costs will be about 30k-40k after bitcoin halving. Are these estimates inaccurate or does the price have to be above 50k to be profitable?

i still think a strong oct move up. this oct.

Or November, December-same thing, probably.
$40-45K for halving sounds like a very reasonable price.
Even though the miners would not be very profitable at those numbers post halving, they could still withhold selling mined bitcoin for a few months while causing more appreciation in the interim.
They were doing this around each halving, imho.

[smartcomet]

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[Taskford]

The problem is simple we are at 28k and if we are not close to 50k by April 1 2024 miners will be hurting bigly. so the sooner we get a pressure relief rally close to 40k the move miners will not panic.

Some estimates reported in Glassnode say that average block mining costs will be about 30k-40k after bitcoin halving. Are these estimates inaccurate or does the price have to be above 50k to be profitable?

i still think a strong oct move up. this oct.

Or November, December-same thing, probably.
$40-45K for halving sounds like a very reasonable price.
Even though the miners would not be very profitable at those numbers post halving, they could still withhold selling mined bitcoin for a few months while causing more appreciation in the interim.
They were doing this around each halving, imho.

High provability that we can see big movements this coming November, to many people will start to save their bitcoin since they speculate to earn huge for this upcoming halving.
Also for sure miners will hold their mined bitcoins since most of them know the situation and they could earn more compare is they sell some early or some good changes happen in the market.
$40k-$50k sounds fair and reachable but for sure all want to see a new ATH recorded at that event.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com