Is the poll still a thing?
Suggestion:
When will Bitcoin price reach $1M/BTC?
-- Before 2025
-- 2025 ~ 2029
-- 2029 ~ 2033 <--- My vote
-- After 2033
-- Never
Yeah agree <10 years.
And if BTC breaks $100k then crossing $1M is just 10x
Regarding the poll I think we have seen this or similar poll before.
Damn this imgur sh*t can’t see infofront’s old poll results.
After further reflection.. I think that AlcoHoDL's dates are mixed up.. and we should be trying to capture the cycles rather than mid-cycle, so it is problematic to state "before 2025
" for the first category and it would be better to say "before 2026" by "by 2025"
then the next categories would be
"2026-2029"
then
"2030-2033"
"After 2033"
"never"
After the fix.. that may or may not be acceptable to others, I am more inclined towards that 2026-2029 cycle.. including that we have to get through this cycle.. which I guess there is a bit of a presumption that this cycle ends by the end of 2025.. which may or may not play out like that... but we should not be trying to make estimations or predictions that overlap the presumptive cycles that are largely already in place.. because it gets too confusing to be mixing between cycles.
So gosh.. we have this whole cycle to finish.. which may well be a bit of a stretch to get $1 million out of it, but $1 million still would not be out of the cards.. even as early as 2025 or even earlier...
So then it seems that we should get pretty decent chances of reaching $1million or more in the 2026 to 2029 cycle.. .. and yeah, I am not trying to get overly excited or overly bullish, but still to get
$1 million / $69k = 14.5
To only get less than 14.5x in the next two cycles (this one and the next one) is seeming overly bearish to me.. even though on a personal level I hardly even give that many shits about $1 million.. since I am already having trouble spending enough money... and I likely have to figure out how to spend more on my BTC spending game.
[edited out]
My take: it reaches 100K in 2024, maybe 2025, then will drop to an average of 25% a year appreciation...so roughly 11 years after 100K to reach 1mil or about 2035-2036.
This would happen
IF (and it is a big if) the idea of diminishing post-halving returns is correct.
After $1mil (21 tril marketcap) it could become quite stable with 10-15% per year return on average, like a moderate growth stock.
Oh gosh--- it only get's worse..
Meaning even more bearish... .even though I like your ideas about diminishing return rates.. which seems to be incorporated in several of the various formulas that bitcoin soothsayer wannabe persons (including yours truly) have tendencies to try to project out in the longer terms... but I still think your diminishing return rate is a quite a bit too whimpy
(I know you don't like that word.. but I like pushing your buttons, even when somewhat inadvertently/unintentionally) hehehehehehe.
Is the poll still a thing?
Suggestion:
When will Bitcoin price reach $1M/BTC?
-- Before 2025
-- 2025 ~ 2029
-- 2029 ~ 2033 <--- My vote
-- The Day after I die.
-- Never
FTFY
Now we have the entrance of Mr. Morbid.. .or would it be Mr. Pessimistic.
Poll
