Is the poll still a thing?
Suggestion:
When will Bitcoin price reach $1M/BTC?
-- Before 2025
-- 2025 ~ 2029
-- 2029 ~ 2033 <--- My vote
-- After 2033
-- Never
Yeah agree <10 years.
And if BTC breaks $100k then crossing $1M is just 10x
Regarding the poll I think we have seen this or similar poll before.
Damn this imgur sh*t can’t see infofront’s old poll results.
After further reflection.. I think that AlcoHoDL's dates are mixed up.. and we should be trying to capture the cycles rather than mid-cycle, so it is problematic to state "before 2025
" for the first category and it would be better to say "before 2026" by "by 2025"
then the next categories would be
"2026-2029"
then
"2030-2033"
"After 2033"
"never"
[...]
My thinking in posting these ranges was using t+1 years, where t = Halving, as follows:
2024 [H] + 1 = 2025
2028 [H] + 1 = 2029
2032 [H] + 1 = 2033
My ranges are still cycles, just shifted 1 year into the future, in order to allow 1 year post-halving for price to catch up. Of course, all this is SOMA and suggestions are welcome, but I would insist that each range should span 4 years. I'm considering mid-year-to-mid-year ranges, you're taking whole years, and that's just semantics in my book, both are fine. Strictly speaking, you have a point in that, considering mid-year numbers, the first and last options should be "By 2025" and "From 2033 onwards". You are astute!
I guess that we are largely saying the same thing - especially since I was initially triggered with the same date being in each of the categories, and I had been considering them to each be 4 year periods too, so I had thought that you had intended them to be 4 year periods, as well, even though it can be a bit ambiguous if the same date overlaps in each of the categories.
I hate to have future expectations to be a lock-in based on what has happened in the past.. but it does seem to be a bit of an inconsistency to deviate from the past when there is no other model saying otherwise for the future - even though we might be able to anticipate that cycles are likely going to change somewhat in the future, but until they actually change, we don't really have any examples of them changing - yet...
So if we are talking about potential top prices for any cycle, the price dynamics of bitcoin has so far been very consistent based on calendar years, and it is so consistent that it is likely going to break. We have so far ONLY had three tops and each of the tops are closer to 18 months after the halvening rather than 12 months after the halvening, so if historically you had been using 12 months in order to give you some kind of a rough guidance for BTC price peaks for the cycle, you would have been right around 6 months premature ejaculation for each of those three already happened cycles... In 2013, the cycle top was the beginning of December, and then in 2017 and in 2021, the cycle top was right around 17th of December for each of those two years.
Accordingly, even though we should not be wanting to lock ourselves into any timeframe that the peak should happen (like LFC likes to do and he has so far been right each time.. hahahahaha), it just seems way more straight forward to go towards the end of the calendar year for each of those future anticipated cycles (even though the halvening is also happening less than exactly 4 years too.. so has been moving to be sooner and sooner and sooner in the calendar year.. at least so far.... so therefore the end of the peak seems more logically to be the calendar year for each of those years (2025, 2029, 2033). Alternatively, if you don't want to do that, then you probably should specify the month that you would want to use for each of those years.. so that the categories are not overlapping.
tl;dr: I have a feeling that $1M/BTC will come around the 2030 mark. Feelings are not math & science, and I'm certainly not Merlin the magician, so that's that. Still, 2030 is not a long way to go, considering many of us are already a decade into this. All is fine. Slow & steady.
And 2030 would either be earlier in that particular cycle or just that the 2026-2029 cycle would end up extending out further.. which I guess I don't have any problems with those ideas, and surely we are just kind of guessing anyhow.
The more I think about the matter, it just seems that $1 million might be one of those "don't stop here it is bat country" kinds of zones - like $100, $1,000, $10k and what $100k is likely going to be.. . at least the first pass through seems more likely to be a kind of "don't stop here it is bat country"... yet again caveats should be thrown out there.. because it is difficult to really know how dynamics are going to actually end up playing out.. and sometimes reversals do end up happening right in the middle of what should have had been pass through zones, and even though I talk about them a lot, I mostly don't change much substantively about my buy/sell orders in such zones - except a wee bit on the margins..
Poll
