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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 43 (69.4%)
<$60,000 - 19 (30.6%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26368637 times)
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According to NIST and ECRYPT II, the cryptographic algorithms used in Bitcoin are expected to be strong until at least 2030. (After that, it will not be too difficult to transition to different algorithms.)
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December 12, 2023, 02:52:46 PM

Who’s ready for UP again

You merely adopted the uppity. I was born in it, molded by it....



Yes, I'm ready  Cheesy

Never understood the hate towards that movie. Thought it was incredible.


As is Godzilla Minus One. 10/10.
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December 12, 2023, 04:02:21 PM

Because brain is excited for halving Event. Grin

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December 12, 2023, 04:46:46 PM




Bottom?
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December 12, 2023, 05:01:13 PM

I was reading the last pages of the thread, and i want to make a mention.

When everybody talks about 100usd per week into investing in BTC, that its quite good and sustainable for first level countries, but in low income countries sadly if you dont catch the BTC in their very very early stages is difficult right now to accumulated some decent quantity.

Also in second level countries like Brazil it can be so much money for the regular person. The other problem in very low countries was, in the very eraly stages of btc like 2010 until 2015 it was difficult also to buy BTC, because in some cases people doesnt have internet or even where to buy, and in a lot of countries the acces to foreign currency is difficult.

Now that problems still exist b ut the market is much bigger than before and you have the opportunity to buy more easily, but now you cant buy so much with a very low income.
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December 12, 2023, 05:07:06 PM

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December 12, 2023, 05:15:32 PM




Bottom?

Not downsizing that bottom… though I always hope bottom is in…

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December 12, 2023, 05:24:03 PM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), AlcoHoDL (1)




Bottom?

Not downsizing that bottom… though I always hope bottom is in…

Moonboy #1

Looks more like my view when we hit the top of you ask me. Smiley

More seriously though, it does appear that this was a needed correction and so far the market has been building on that bottom instead of retesting it, so that’s a positive sign. With any luck we don’t see a lower low from here and can get back to pushing towards $50K.
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December 12, 2023, 05:36:10 PM

“A well-designed CBDC could serve as a public alternative to these cryptocurrencies and potentially crowd out their usage.”

The fix is in and has been since Day 1: Elizabeth Warren wants to kill Bitcoin to make way for a central bank digital currency.

Anyone supporting Warren’s anti-money laundering legislation—including the five Senators who signed on yesterday—is just a pawn in her game.

As Warren’s strategy becomes clear, she may try to downplay her past statements on CBDCs. But we have the receipts.

Warren began her anti-crypto campaign in earnest on June 9, 2021. On this day, she hosted a Senate hearing with three hand-picked expert witnesses who all levied various attacks against Bitcoin. But the Bitcoin broadsides were merely an opening act for the main event: the supposed merits of a Federal Reserve-backed CBDC.

The title of the hearing says it all—“A Stronger Financial System: Opportunities of a Central Bank Digital Currency.” Over the course of nearly two hours, Warren attempts to convince her colleagues and the American public that Bitcoin is a danger to the environment and national security—and that the only viable alternative to crypto is a CBDC (see clip below).

Warren is more subtle now, but the goal remains the same: eliminate all competition until Americans have no choice but to bank directly with the Fed.

Each Senator that co-sponsors Warren’s bill gets her one step closer to that goal.
https://x.com/SamLyman33/status/1734607599583088718
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December 12, 2023, 05:44:48 PM
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I cannot remember your exact story in terms of your bitcoin entry date, AlcoHoDL.. but I was thinking that maybe you were only a couple of years after me...[...]
August 2015 was my first transaction. Paid $120, got 0.5 BTC, left it in my phone, forgot about it. 3 months later it had become $200. I remember the market cap then was single-digit billions, maybe $5B (currently $800B -- 160x). I remember I was checking CoinMarketCap. Not even registered to BitcoinTalk. All purchases done via Bitcoin ATMs. No exchanges.

Great times...

So maybe we could say that even if you made a BTC purchase near the middle of 2015, you really were not engaging very much with the idea of bitcoin, so perhaps just taking a bit of a stake as a "let's see what happens," so then maybe you did not get lured into starting to study BTC until the end of 2015, so in essence yes, you got active in BTC around a couple of years after me, but I was largely trying to study bitcoin right from the start of my investing into it.. so I was active in other bitcoin-related threads before I came to this forum in late February 2014.

And, so it still seems that part of my point stands in which we might have some investment without very much conviction, and so our conviction grows over time, and yeah, maybe it is not exactly religious to throw some money at something, but there might be some perceptions of possible value that makes it greater than a 50/50 gamble, but then the more real points to show conviction still might have to do with deciding to become more aggressive about your bitcoin investment.

In my own self-assessment, I do consider that i was fairly aggressive right from the start, because I looked into bitcoin for maybe a couple of weeks prior to making my first purchase at the end of November and towards the exact then top, but then I also created a 6 month budget for myself and a plan to buy BTC every week for the next 26 weeks.. and then after those first 26 weeks to continue with a similar plan for the next 26 weeks, so that would then get me to a year of investing into BTC, which I would consider to be pretty aggressive but still within boundaries.. since by the time I got to the end of a year (2014 - a year of being in bitcoin), I figured that bitcoin had constituted about 10% of the total value of my quasi-liquid investment portfolio, and so in that regard, I was more aggressive than some of the guys that I call whimpy in these here parts, so level of faith and conviction can vary, and maye the extent to which there might be motivation to invest into something like bitcoin, but then there can be some stylistic matters that change mindsets between someone who is DCA'ing versus someone who is lump summing or buying on dips. .. and sure there can be overlap, but sometimes mindset can affect practice, but practice can also affect mindset.

We may or may not end up in similar places, because some people get distracted into shitcoins and have a lot of difficulties getting out of the shitcoin trap, and then there can be other aspects of a person's investment experience that might contribute towards looking at bitcoin compared to other investment possibilities in a certain kind of way.


Who is "we?" Do you have a rock in your pocket?  O.k. maybe that response was overly argumentative, but I could not resist.

50         +  0.05 =   50.05
25         +  0.05 =   25.05       this looks like a real true ½ ing to me
12.5      +  0.10 =   12.60          "     "   "       "     "
6.25      +  0.70 =     6.95         "        "

3.125     + 0.70 =    3.825        this looks almost like  a ½ ing

1.5625   + 0.70 =    2.2625         this is not what any ½ ing has ever looked like      4 years and 4 months from now
0.78125 + 0.70 =    1.48125       this is certainly far different than anything we have seen in terms of ½ ing

So my point is do we see unexpected changes in 2024 a different cycle pattern

We will certainly see them in 2028 as the ½ ing will not really be one

Well if you are attemtping to figure out what might happen right after 2024 halvening and/or between 2024 and 2028 and also after the 2028 halvening, then surely those are more potentially pressing speculations than some of your earlier speculations regarding what might happen in 2056 or 2140-ish.

2028 is not that far from today do other see this and plan to exit sooner than you predict? Or for that matter does this act to drive price up more than expected.

I doubt that we need to really get into analyzing those kinds of dynamics in order to consider that bitcoin is likely going to continue to be more and more valuable in the future, especially since it remains scarce and nothing about the various mining dynamics seem broken or disincentivizing the continued mining of bitcoin, even if there surely could be more and more flattening of the 4-year cycle, but why do we necessarily need to go into expectations of flattening of the 4-year cycle in any kind of profound way, prior to our actual ability to see such dyanamics of flattenening or disappearance of the 4-year cycle playing out.

Look at my entry-level fuck you status chart that currently goes to late 2074, and so you might have had been able to see that my previous versions attempted straight-line and diminishing return curves, which are largely projecting out entry-level fuck you status based on expected valuation of the 200-week moving average, but historically it looks like we have seen 2 years up and 2 years down in terms of the intensity in which the 200-week moving average had continued to go up, and even in our worst 18 months ever (between June 2022 and October 2023, in which BTC's spot price continued to stay below the 200-week moving average for extended periods of time), we still barely even got below 10% increases in the 200-week moving average for each of the latest 6-month periods.

Surely at some point the 200-week moving average might go negative, but I am not going to assume such going negative until I see such a going negative, and it just seems a better presumption to continue with positive numbers and likely with continuing to expect some kind of a pattern of diminishing differences between the time that the 200-week moving average might be moving up versus when it might be moving down and maybe it just ends up into some kind of a straight line that might end up being between 4% and 8% per year with an average around 6%..?  and I even hate to speculate with that level of specificity, since it is likely that we will need to tweak these kinds of projections and expectations to attempt to line up with facts that develop.. and some aspects might be difficult to know what will happen but also what affects the future happenings will end up having on the price (in terms of the 200-week moving average if that might be a kind of bottom measurement that seems currently valid but also could become less valid in the future).  

In any event, I don't see any reason to tweak any of these kinds of dynamics based on nearly pure speculation and even missing several components that could affect other components, unless you want to propose your own version of something like what i had projected out that is based on decreased mining subsidies and higher percentage of fees.... which again, those are likely driving incentives to mine, but I doubt that those dynamics are driving other aspects of BTC price since BTC price likely has another considerable affect on the incentives for whether and/or how miners might choose to engage in such operations/occupation...   And, no problem that surely we are likely going to continue to end up with greater and greater flattening of some of the ingrained bitcoin price dynamics that are based on 4-year cycles.

the 2024 to 2028 time slot is truly "different" than any prior as there will not be a supply drop of great significance.

But it is all a BIG so what? if we are trying to talk about BTC price dynamics, and if you are frequently trying to suggest that hash rate is driving BTC prices.. and I am not sure what point you are wanting to make that is even needing to be speculated upon, since we largely agree BTC prices are going up.. but we might have differing ideas about by how much and whether any kind of cycle dynamics might continue which also might be a who cares aspect, unless you are trying to trade such price waves, which you have already admitted that you are way more into those kinds of selling too much on the way up and expecting to buy on the way down than me, and so maybe if you are questioning if the BTC price is going to go down, then maybe you will sell less than what you would have had sold otherwise, but I doubt that any of that affects me very much, since I just follow my system and it becomes a BIG so fucking what if the BTC price does not end up coming down.. I don't care either way, even though I hardly have any reason to believe that hype cycles are  not going to continue in something similar to a 4-year pattern, even if they might not be exactly materially driven by new supply constraint dynamics.
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December 12, 2023, 05:54:28 PM

Yet, on the other hand, you are making him look like a genius.

Are your daddies “geniuses”?
Because my Father in the Heavens is the Alpha and Omega.



You can never be too careful around those wanna be philosophers - especially those from the Cynical school of philosophy - isn't that right, Antisthenes?

Ahh, xhomerx10 you fucking scumbag.
Actually I consider my tiny self Socratic, you know, Antisthenes’s mentor, dubbed the Christ before the Christ.



"another one bites the dust"

Poor spirit, by definition.
Indeed you will bite the dust, your master will make sure of it.




Door, ass etc…

Hahaha, come on - you’d wish - I’ve got things to demolish.



Yeah, buddy, the Ignore list is perfect for her...

That would be a “he” for you dickhead.



This behavior suggests Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD), like Asperger Syndrome (AS) or similar. These conditions can even be beneficial if they are manageable, but can lead to incidents like the above if they cross a critical threshold.

Right.
Not that you opinion matters, but talking about crossing critical thresholds, reminded me that I’ve got something to tell you:

I am a Christian.

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But if you say, “I am a Christian,” they will tremble.



Not some Islamistic BS that causes nothing but problems for everyone and everything.

Brother …
Christ travelling to India before and after the crucifixion drama, is symbolic to the tolerance we all need to have, towards people of other dogmas and religions. It does not matter where they are in the world, what they believe in and what they practice, as long as they are able to find the light within - the way Jesus Christ demonstrated - the only way - thus becoming Christ themselves.

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And each one of them, starting out in his land, revealed his (kind of) knowledge to the visible church constituted of the modelled forms of perdition. It (the church) was found to contain all kinds of seed, because of the seed of the authorities that had mixed with it.



In what ways was this so called "Christianity" responsible for the "biggest Technological Revolution of our Counted time." pray tell?

Not in any way you can conceive, for you are blind.



My body is ready.

Your body is weak.

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Now the world is the place of unfaith and the place of death.



~ the Catholic church ~

It is by far the most wicked one of the bunch, and is held responsible by orders of magnitudes for the degeneration and degradation of these “modern” times. Their reversed cross is a pure insult to the word of my Father in Heavens.



You guys are so fuckin stupid..

I’ve already read that you love your neighbours, but you got to show some affection to the animals too.

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The world came into being through error.



Another fun fact :
Christianity also revolitionized the Music and made the world more bearable and fun.
Happy Holidays Beautiful Christians !

Indeed!
That donkey Cryptotourist used to say “music is the answer” and “God is a DJ”.
Turns out that this is only partly true, because the word of our Father in Heavens is the ultimate all inclusive answer, and He is not just a DJ - for He is everything.



As an ex-member of the Christian Church, but as a man who is acting on Christian values, more than less, i can only say that the Christian Church is not acting very Christian, probably almost never did.

Well, read above, I’m sure you will figure it out, not.


I believe Jesus Christ would turn in his grave if he knew how things turned out regarding "Christianity".

He knows you moron.


I wonder if Jesus Christ, if still alive, would be a Bitcoiner...

Let me think for a sec … ehh no.
But I do enjoy how you greedy bastards, like to invoke Jesus Christ - amidst your filth - yet in a totally blasphemous kind of way.



Spoiler alert.. He would snap it out of existence.

Live fast die young. Wink



Okay I'm gonna bite because it's holiday season so I'll give you a reply.

Oh fuck off to hell already.


Bro, the sooner you break away from believing in a magic sky fairy to solve all your problems, the sooner you will become a little smarter. I'm not holding my breath though. Most folks who break out of your stage of believing in nonsense don't do it from hearing it from other folks trying to tell them they are not thinking rationally. That just makes them double down. No, they do it on there own volition, studying the evidence etc.

What evidence?
You mean the lying mainstream propaganda you so push forward, right!


I can only plant the seed.

Oh?

Quote
As long as the seed is hidden, wickedness is ineffectual, but it has not yet been removed from the midst of the seed of the holy spirit. Everyone is a slave of evil. But when the seed is revealed, the perfect light will flow out on everyone. And all those who are in the light will receive the chrism.



i finally bit too, but i was successful in resisting the first couple of times he trolled by swinging his "Christianity club"  Roll Eyes
On the other hand, when ones doen't call out on lies, one probably accepts them, so i had to put things into perspective.

Here is some perspective for you punk:

Quote
As long as they are hidden, most things in the world are upright and live. If they are revealed they die. As long as the root of wickedness is hidden, it is powerful. But when it is recognized, it is dissolved. When it is revealed, it perishes.

Isn’t that some revelation or what? Tongue



You folks remind me of my Dad he is one Stupid ignorant person.
He used to be against everything i did too.. Now he crys and lingers in every possible oportunity he can be around cause he saw the truth ..

I wish my dad could see that too, but he can’t see shit. I’m hoping that it’s not too late for him.
#always.trying



Albeit, you apparently are not crazy about your virtual neighbors in here are you?

He is not, because it’s too late for you - your wickedness is too advanced - and neither am I - for you cannot be helped any more.
#remember.free.wiil


And I'm not to bothered that you didn't tell your imaginary friend to bless us.

He can’t because you are already cursed, dah. But do worry, your master will take “care” of ya.



dude if Santa  Claus is real Jesus would be real.

Christ is real, “Santa” is not, you unbearable repulsive swine.
If you think that I’m insulting you, I’m not, rather it’s called “affection to animals”.


Jesus had saints
santa is a saint.

Good grief.
Doesn’t matter, you demons are already on your way down were you “belong” - better even - never belonged.


that is probably more logical.

For Father’s sake, you are so dead.

Quote
This world is a corpse-eater. All the things eaten in it themselves die also. Truth is a life-eater. Therefore no one nourished by truth will die. It was from that place that Jesus came and brought food. To those who so desired, he gave life, that they might not die.



Later.
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December 12, 2023, 06:04:42 PM

Aaah Homer he’s just craving for an unique hat….

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