Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[JayJuanGee]

A colleague of mine says, in a conversation with another and me, during a night operation, he remembers when I told him about having bought a certain amount of coins and the price was around 1000$ and he thought I was crazy, now he recognizes I wasn't crazy after all.

He didn't remember right because the price was lower than that and I mostly got the coins trough mining LTC, but that was still good to hear, although I would rather not talk about my stash now to people...

Only thing sad is that the stash is significantly smaller as I lost coins in various foolish endeavors, but such is life.

As for the price, it's good it's high, although it makes buying more seem a bit pointless. Then I remember I'm predicting at least a 200K price in a not too distant future so it's still cheap.

There surely can be dilemmas for any guys who have already accumulated a decent number of coins, but still have not yet arrived at (or close to) their own entry-level fuck you status.  No one can really tell anyone else what that level might be, but each of us surely should have abilities to measure our own individual factors, but even the measuring of individual factors still might not be enough if we are still dependent upon the BTC price to rise.

What to do?


What to do?

Of course, when in doubt accumulate, but still if you are doubting that, then maybe the next level of what to do would at least be to HODL..

Once you have enough cornz, and even too much (if such a thing is possible), then you will likely be able to determine that you have enough and/or too much, and we don't necessarily need to go into those kinds of details, at this time... especially if the current dilemma has to do with whether you already have enough or not.

Of course, I find it somewhat problematic to be overly dependent upon BTC spot price to help you determine what to do, but surely spot price is not irrelevant, either...so if the price were to really go to $200k or so in this particular cycle, then what would be the plan?  Are there various points to shave off a little cornz (that would presume that you have enough and/or too much)?  or just hang in there and just watch the BTC price to go up (if that's what ends up happening?).  I would have a difficult time believing that the BTC price would become stable at $200k, even if it were to take a couple of years to get there... but how many legs in advance are we considering in these kinds of speculations? One leg at a time or something else?

[ivomm]

NEW: BlackRock modifies the structure of its spot #Bitcoin ETF to allow "Authorized Participants", mainly Wall Street banks, to create new shares in the fund with cash, allowing them an exposure to #Bitcoin even without a license to own #cryptocurrency directly

https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1735005414276878729

I don't like this. It would be more or less like a derivative then, no?

Buying pressure on the ETF can be soothed by some fiat cash, maybe printed on the spot by the friendly Fed,
without backing the new shares with hard coin - which would pass the pressure on to the underlying (that is - our lil fiend, king daddy etc.)

EDIT - Unless the rules force the actual ETF issuer (BlackRock) to back the new shares with hard coin - supposedly bought with the cash inflow generated by the authorized participant. However, no matter how I turn this thing in my head, it smells like a rehypothecation fest waiting to happen.

From what I've read about "in kind" vs "in cash" is that "in cash" has an additional intermediary which is licenced to buy and keep in cold storage the coins (edit: vs to use Coinbase custody). This will increase the fees, that's why Blackrock insisted on their "in kind" model. But SEC obviously insisted to add also the "in cash" option in order to include other major institutions like large banks which don't have a licence to buy and keep the coins. This has nothing to do with derivatives. Now practically everyone can participate in the ETF's, which is even better. Of course, I'm not a financial expert, I just read carefully all tweets from financial experts, which I can't trust 100% of course. SEC concerns are that there will be no way for some company to issue fake shares with no real purchase, to keep the coins in cold, instead of hot wallets, and that nobody on the chain would be able to sell customer's coins without their knowledge. All this is very positive IMO and shows the real change of SEC's attitude towards spot ETF's. (edit: All this shows also that the SEC staff doesn't trust Coinbase being an unregulated market. In order to minimize the risk for investors, the ETF shares should rely only on licenced companies. Thus only the spot price depends on the unregulated market, which the court found as not a reason to deny spot ETF's.) The last minute ammendmets is a clear indicator that the approval will be issued in less than a month, probably around the 8th Jan 2024. Gensler last comment today seems to confirm this expectation:

https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1735006033997648371

[El duderino_]

A colleague of mine says, in a conversation with another and me, during a night operation, he remembers when I told him about having bought a certain amount of coins and the price was around 1000$ and he thought I was crazy, now he recognizes I wasn't crazy after all.

He didn't remember right because the price was lower than that and I mostly got the coins trough mining LTC, but that was still good to hear, although I would rather not talk about my stash now to people...

Only thing sad is that the stash is significantly smaller as I lost coins in various foolish endeavors, but such is life.

As for the price, it's good it's high, although it makes buying more seem a bit pointless. Then I remember I'm predicting at least a 200K price in a not too distant future so it's still cheap.

If 200 in a not too distant future… then it’s time to move as all-in as possible imo

[d_eddie]

NEW: BlackRock modifies the structure of its spot #Bitcoin ETF to allow "Authorized Participants", mainly Wall Street banks, to create new shares in the fund with cash, allowing them an exposure to #Bitcoin even without a license to own #cryptocurrency directly

https://twitter.com/BitcoinNewsCom/status/1735005414276878729

I don't like this.

--snip--

it smells like a rehypothecation fest waiting to happen.

From what I've read about "in kind" vs "in cash" is that "in cash" has an additional intermediary which is licensed to buy and keep in cold storage the coins. This will increase the fees, that's why Blackrock insisted on their "in kind" model. But SEC obviously insisted to include also to add the "in cash" option in order to include other major institutions like large banks which don't have a licence to buy and keep the coins. This has nothing to do with derivatives. Now practically everyone can participate in the ETF's, which is even better. Of course, I'm not a financial expert, I just read carefully all tweets from financial experts, which I can't trust 100% of course. SEC concerns are that there will be no way for some company to issue fake shares with no real purchase, to keep the coins in cold, not hot wallets and that nobody on the chain would be able to sell custumer's coins without their knowledge. All this is very positive IMO and shows the real change of SEC's attitude towards spot ETF's. The last minute ammendmets is a clear indicator that the approval will be issued in less than a month, probably around the 8th Jan 2024. Gensler last comment today seems to confirm this expectation:

https://twitter.com/JSeyff/status/1735006033997648371

Good research, thanks ivomm!

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

ChartBuddy is about to post a $43K! I’m impressed with how fast the market recovered. All thanks be to the Fed it seems as they signaled rate cuts are in the near future and analysts are saying that they nailed a soft landing. I think it might be a little early to declare victory on the economy but I’ll take the stock market and Bitcoin gains.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

https://x.com/momentoviral/status/1734918158073450574?s=46

[eXPHorizon]

Every force you create has an Echo. Your own Bad energy will be your undoing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[xhomerx10]

Every force you create has an Echo. Your own Bad energy will be your undoing.

 

[xhomerx10]

https://x.com/momentoviral/status/1734918158073450574?s=46

 Even though my wife knows that bitcoin rebounded today she doesn't understand this post the way I do.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

ChartBuddy is about to post a $43K! I’m impressed with how fast the market recovered. All thanks be to the Fed it seems as they signaled rate cuts are in the near future and analysts are saying that they nailed a soft landing. I think it might be a little early to declare victory on the economy but I’ll take the stock market and Bitcoin gains.

Well stock market (and perhaps properties and other non-bitcoin places that people store their value) is probably going to end up more or less matching cost of living increases, so I doubt that you can really call such things gains (in real terms), which is similar to some of the claims that some of us had about investing into US Govt IBonds, and sure the nominal "gains" look somewhat decent compared to a bank account, or cash under the mattress, but in the whole scheme of things, none of these things are really as correlated to bitcoin as the innuendos like to suggest.... and there is importance when it comes to magnitude...

Sure, keep some money in stocks, bonds, properties and commodities, but where is the likely performance?  Many of us here know the answer and many of us know it is both not guaranteed, but at the same time, there is a bit of an insult to be comparing them as if they were the same thing.

There may well be some stocks that outperform others and maybe even come close to beating or exceeding bitcoin in their performance, but this is not going to be any kind of likely general observation that is going to apply to stock indexes.  Yeah, I have some stocks and indexes, but I question how much time I want to be trying to figure out which stocks might be the better performance or having to invest into the property that is going to hold value more than other properties.. including the liquidity issues and maintenance costs.. and yeah if I am living there. and/or already have good tenants lined up then maybe there can be ways that some of these properties are not as burdensome.. and we have to live somewhere and spend time in some places.. nothing wrong with relationships.

https://x.com/momentoviral/status/1734918158073450574?s=46

But what does it mean?

She looks like fun and all of that, yet it doesn't look good in terms of symbolism... .. unless we just interpret the movements as temporarily bouncing around at what seems to be a temporary top, that may well not end up being a top.. so then where would that take us?

I am not going to say that I know.. and maybe you are leading me into having to start to solidify myself more in terms of proclaiming $35k to $55k to be our new "don't wake me up zone".. whether we call it a top, some kind of reflection of the bottom being in or maybe the bouncing around ends up playing out as a mere middle....

By the way, there are some people who still consider current prices to be quite a bit below fair market price, and for me it does seem a bit better to be bouncing around 40% higher than the 200 week moving average, and surely a 40% or more price above the 200-Week moving average seems way more stable.. even though king daddy no does not do stable, and least in these here times, so it would seem to be quite fantastical to be either expecting or seeing king daddy as "stable".. not here.. this seems like bat country.. and not really very comfortable to be stopping.. . unless we go up first.. so if there is more UP and then we come back down to here. .then I could see possible stability around here.. but just going up and then stabilizing around the top of a recent price move (right around 60% up if we start at $27k).. I don't see it.. I just don't see it.  Call me blind.. if you like.

https://x.com/momentoviral/status/1734918158073450574?s=46

Even though my wife knows that bitcoin rebounded today she doesn't understand this post the way I do.

At least, someone here can relate to it.  

[Biodom]

OT: Well, with Powell mentioning three cuts in 2024, if you want an alternative forex trade, going long japanese yen might be profitable.
USD/JPY peaked at around 150ish recently and yen already appreciated to 141 (it's in reverse).
I think it might go to 120-125, which would add 18-20% to whatever you get in japanese stocks next year.
Not bad..I bought myself a position in japan around 2010-2012 as they were coming out of 21-23 years long depression.
For equities, buying cheap increases the probability of success
Who knows, maybe Argentina would be a buy shortly.

[Biodom]

https://x.com/momentoviral/status/1734918158073450574?s=46

bouncy 

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[True Myth]

https://x.com/momentoviral/status/1734918158073450574?s=46

Me:  Watching a pair of floppy titties bouncing up and down... thoughtless... yet I am smiling.

JJG:

But what does it mean?

She looks like fun and all of that, yet it doesn't look good in terms of symbolism... .. unless we just interpret the movements as temporarily bouncing around at what seems to be a temporary top, that may well not end up being a top.. so then where would that take us?

I am not going to say that I know.. and maybe you are leading me into having to start to solidify myself more in terms of proclaiming $35k to $55k to be our new "don't wake me up zone".. whether we call it a top, some kind of reflection of the bottom being in or maybe the bouncing around ends up playing out as a mere middle....

By the way, there are some people who still consider current prices to be quite a bit below fair market price, and for me it does seem a bit better to be bouncing around 40% higher than the 200 week moving average, and surely a 40% or more price above the 200-Week moving average seems way more stable.. even though king daddy no does not do stable, and least in these here times, so it would seem to be quite fantastical to be either expecting or seeing king daddy as "stable".. not here.. this seems like bat country.. and not really very comfortable to be stopping.. . unless we go up first.. so if there is more UP and then we come back down to here. .then I could see possible stability around here.. but just going up and then stabilizing around the top of a recent price move (right around 60% up if we start at $27k).. I don't see it.. I just don't see it.  Call me blind.. if you like.

@JJG - you crack me up sometimes but, also amaze me at the amount of thought and analyzing you perform.