Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BobLawblaw]

This year is ending with a bitcoin price $60k?

Doubt.

[OROBTC]

...

Two things irking me but good today:

1)  mempool.space now showing me almost $39.00 as next block's median fee.   

2)  It took me some 10 times for the captcha to let me in here...   

        

[fillippone]

@JJG - you crack me up sometimes but, also amaze me at the amount of thought and analyzing you perform.

No problem... I cannot really help myself, anyhow, and as you might realize, I have been just chomping at the bit to revisit my HypoPhil model, while at the same time potentially adding to it by showing some buy back ideas.

Here's a couple of charts that summarizes the HypoPhil matter.^**

Hey JJG.
I tried to reconstruct your spreadsheet and encountered some difficulties matching it.

HypoMyth's BTC sell ladder Plan

In particular I saw the raking formula (column D) is not accurate, and also it changes somehow on the hypothesis of the reinvestments...But it's not specified how.
Upon receiving more direction, I can provide you with the usual spreadsheet to share.
I'm wondering also if you want to keep all this in the WO or if you want to move it to your specific thread.

[OgNasty]

This year is ending with a bitcoin price $60k?

Doubt.

Same. I don’t see us even hitting $50K this month/year. It would require breaking through some pretty long lasting resistance levels. $45K or maybe even $47K I would see as possible, but it would take a great deal of buying to get us to even $49K, let alone breaking the psychological barrier of $50K in such a short time.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Biodom]

Everybody expects the imminent ETF bull run, but then it would be a first bull run I am aware of that was predicted, discussed and "implemented'.

Personally, I see a more complex trajectory:
Whatever the price is at ETF approval, I see a flat to 10% reduction during the first 4-6 mo "post ETF" with a possibility of a short duration 20-30% run up just before the halving, most likely followed by an equivalent "Bart" down with btc price at $40-50K (maybe it be would smack in the middle of that range at $45K) by May-June 2024 followed by an increasingly strong bull for the next 6-16 mo, with a possibility of at least a first wave (if it would have two humps) peaking in Dec 2024 and the second one in September-November of 2025.

Of course, no need to sell during any of those presumed flat or slight down periods.

So, you're a "sell the news" kind of guy.
I understand that people have this attitude because it comes from when whales were playing the street and treating bitcoin like a speculative low liquidity asset that nobody watches, so you had situations like Musk buying, telling the world he bought, selling, telling the world he sold. Or Jamie Dimon saying bitcoin is for scammers and then opening a trading desk to make some money on the side.

I also have this contrarian voice stuck inside my head saying that it can't be that easy. Black Rock tells people to buy and you buy and get 100% profit in a year? No, if that was true then everybody would won and statistics say that over 80% of investors lose money... but...

Let's cover some buts
How many random people will listen to Black Rock? How many random people will listen to people like Keiser, Long, Mow, Back, Saylor, Vays... Bitcoiners know these names but more than 90% of random people you'd ask wouldn't recognize them.
What I'm saying here is that we're biased because we already hold bitcoin and we read all these predictions from both sides and there's been so many of these positive ones that we're overwhelmed. We start getting into conspiracy theories, thinking it can't be that easy, but in the real big world we're the small group that actually listens and cares. Most people will treat it like gossip and not act. They'll talk with their spouses, put it between what Harry and Meghan are doing and the recent bombardments in Syria and ask if they maybe should allocate some money into bitcoin and then they'll never do it.

Bottom line is, the demand is going to be much greater this time. There's not much dumb money for the street to take advantage of anymore and you can see it in statistics that show HODL rates. They're at all time highs. When the street finally sees this demand it will be too late for them to go in. Maybe they'll scrape some profit from the top. I believe the demand is going to surprise us this time and this bull market will last longer than the previous one.

Definitely not the "sell the news" guy.
The small difference in our opinions could be described as follows:

Me-"from the ETF approval flat or down for 3-4 mo, followed by the reversible bump around the halving, then flat until about May-June, THEN a strong, possibly two-humped bull.

@darkangel11: basically LFG...it will be mostly up from the get go because the crowd would be pumped by the Black Rock.

I grant you that your scenario is possible, just because the general public could be enticed to FOMO, but it kind of goes against what I observed in my investment career.
That said, I agree that over long term, this might be a very strong bull, so i don't intend to trade it in-and-out.
At some point, I believe, large Sovereign funds would get involved, as predicted by multiple players.

[Hueristic]

This year is ending with a bitcoin price $60k?

BTC/USD: Bitcoin Consolidates Near $41K After 8% Drop Kicks Off Weekly Trading
Market participants endured the worst single-day performance in nine months, but Bitcoin is still up 150% on the year.

Bitcoin prices BTC/USD consolidated near the $41,000 threshold on Wednesday after a cold plunge of 8% took traders by surprise on Monday. The top crypto asset suffered its worst day in nine months after profit taking clipped some of Bitcoin’s recent gains on the back of the highly-coveted spot Bitcoin ETF.
With that in mind, BTC has pulled back from its 2023 peak of $44,700, hit last week, which was the highest point seen since April 2022. Traders who bought in early this year shouldn’t worry about the fresh drop – Bitcoin flaunts a hefty 150% year-to-date gain, outperforming nearly all large-cap assets.
Undeterred prospects for the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF continue to steer the token’s price trajectory. Active talks between the US financial watchdog, the SEC, and BlackRock, the asset manager who awaits a decision on its BTC ETF application, are improving the crypto investment climate on Wall Street.


Source 1.


BTCUSD technical analysis (Chart).

Many people are still buying...


Source 2.

It seems I called this one too early but I was not wrong, it is just too early... Do we agree?

It is not that Bitcoin will not enter a correction just that it is yet to do so, but things are looking good.

Since I've been gone for a while I need to know which Altcoins you are interested in, which Altcoins should I update first?

Bitcoin is looking great but the price already reached the April 2022 high which is the top for this bullish wave. So, watch out, it can go higher but a correction can develop at anytime.

The Altcoins are different though, specially the medium sized and smaller ones.
These can show plenty of room available for additional growth.

So let me know in the comments section which Altcoins you want me to look at first and I will publish everyday.

You will have to look into my profile in order to find the updates, daily.
I will do them all, one by one.

Thanks a lot for your continued support.


Source 3.


Bitcoin: Overlooking The Wave Count?

Bitcoin appears to be in a smaller magnitude Wave 4 (see chart) which implies one more push higher to complete the impulse structure. such a move can see price into the mid to high 46Ks over the next couple of weeks. While this is good news for those who have been or are looking to go long, there is one technical problem that is likely being overlooked by most.



Source 4.

My opinion:

If we look at all the above things well, then we can notice that before the end of this year, the price of Bitcoin is going to be higher, maybe it can exceed $60 thousand. we may have to wait until December 19, 2023 to see them, only then will we actually know how many pips Bitcoin ends the year at.

Maybe we're going to see something like Rocket and it's too soon.

I've highlighted and bolded the issue for you and have a couple questions.


1) Did you forget what thread your in?


2) Do you always plagiarize or did you just forget to apply attributions?

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Torque]

OT:

I'm so glad to see movie review sites not being paid off by Hollywood anymore to write gushing reviews of terrible movies, and finally getting back to writing brutally honest critical reviews of terrible movies.

https://www.indiewire.com/criticism/movies/rebel-moon-part-one-a-child-of-fire-review-zack-snyder-netflix-1234935678/

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[pawel7777]

I'm so glad to see movie review sites not being paid off by Hollywood anymore to write gushing reviews of terrible movies, and finally getting back to writing brutally honest critical reviews of terrible movies.

Is the Hollywood still not dead? I haven't watched any of their garbage in years, but apparently there's still some demand for this impotent "art".
It's all just a matter of (short) time till the movie-making business gets completely replaced with AI.

[Hueristic]

OT:

I'm so glad to see movie review sites not being paid off by Hollywood anymore to write gushing reviews of terrible movies, and finally getting back to writing brutally honest critical reviews of terrible movies.

https://www.indiewire.com/criticism/movies/rebel-moon-part-one-a-child-of-fire-review-zack-snyder-netflix-1234935678/

Reacher season 2 out.

[Torque]

OT:

I'm so glad to see movie review sites not being paid off by Hollywood anymore to write gushing reviews of terrible movies, and finally getting back to writing brutally honest critical reviews of terrible movies.

https://www.indiewire.com/criticism/movies/rebel-moon-part-one-a-child-of-fire-review-zack-snyder-netflix-1234935678/

Reacher season 2 out.

Haven't watched yet. Is it any good?

I rather liked season 1.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[kellrobinson]

https://t.me/CSWSquare/13158

[Hueristic]

OT:

I'm so glad to see movie review sites not being paid off by Hollywood anymore to write gushing reviews of terrible movies, and finally getting back to writing brutally honest critical reviews of terrible movies.

https://www.indiewire.com/criticism/movies/rebel-moon-part-one-a-child-of-fire-review-zack-snyder-netflix-1234935678/

Reacher season 2 out.

Haven't watched yet. Is it any good?

So far it is, watched the first 3.

I rather liked season 1.

Yeah season one kicked serious ass!

[JayJuanGee]

Corporations will now be able to report btc gains on their asset if they hold it, pumping their overall stock price value for EOY reporting.

Funny how a major barrier to corporate bitcoin holding adoption is changed right before the coming Bitcoin ETF approvals?

What amazing timing! I'm shocked, shocked I tells ya! /s 

https://twitter.com/davidmarcus/status/1734974716505649531

This is indeed a big deal but it’ll be another year before it goes into effect so the timing of it being announced right before the ETF approval doesn’t mean much. What it does mean is that a perfect storm is once again brewing for the 4 year ATH to get set in mid/late 2025. Exciting for people who are already happy with the $40K price.

As JJG said, but it might have been covered in words, the fair value accounting for bitcoin can be adopted by companies already in Q1 2024:

Early adoption is permitted for both interim and annual financial statements that have not yet been issued (or made available for issuance). If amendments are adopted in an interim period, they must be adopted as of the beginning of the fiscal year that includes that interim period.

https://fasb.org/page/getarticle?uid=fasb_Media_Advisory_12-13-23

I had not noticed or seen that language about having such restrictions, and sure maybe it could become misleading if a company adopts the changed way of reporting in the middle of their statement or reporting period.. so maybe that means that some companies might decide to start right away or they might start at some point early or in the middle of 2024, but if they were to start in the early or in the middle of 2024, then they would have to amend all of their earlier statements for their reporting year, so if they report for the fiscal year they would have to go back to October, and if they report for calendar year then they would have to make sure all of their reports for the whole year are accurate from January (which might be amending their older issued reports). 

If we look at all the above things well, then we can notice that before the end of this year, the price of Bitcoin is going to be higher, maybe it can exceed $60 thousand. we may have to wait until December 19, 2023 to see them, only then will we actually know how many pips Bitcoin ends the year at.

Maybe we're going to see something like Rocket and it's too soon.

More immediately, if we look at this week's candle, we would have to get above $43,786 for it to close in the green, so I am not sure how great the odds are, because we ONLY have right around 24 hours before this week's candle closes, so the price would need to rise by more than $1,500 as I type this post.