Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[1714579799]

1714579799

[1714579799]

1714579799

[cygan]

to all hat-avatar wearers... maybe you are interested in being part of the next edition
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5478136.0

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[hisslyness]

https://mempool.space/block/000000000000000000008ed27e5d18709c450b78367df4bfbf37dd7b9a1fb6ec

Fees are more than block rewards! mempool cost is crazy at the moment!

Is this a way to artificially suppress the price…

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[nutildah]

https://mempool.space/block/000000000000000000008ed27e5d18709c450b78367df4bfbf37dd7b9a1fb6ec

Fees are more than block rewards! mempool cost is crazy at the moment!

Is this a way to artificially suppress the price…

I don't know. This is madness. There is a second-layer shitcoin market that's currently all the rage on bitcoin, but the bubble has to pop at some point. Its gonna be brutal for them, good for everyone else.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[philipma1957]

This year is ending with a bitcoin price $60k?

Doubt.

Same. I don’t see us even hitting $50K this month/year. It would require breaking through some pretty long lasting resistance levels. $45K or maybe even $47K I would see as possible, but it would take a great deal of buying to get us to even $49K, let alone breaking the psychological barrier of $50K in such a short time.

my peak number was 48.1k for dec 2023

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

https://mempool.space/block/000000000000000000008ed27e5d18709c450b78367df4bfbf37dd7b9a1fb6ec

Fees are more than block rewards! mempool cost is crazy at the moment!

Is this a way to artificially suppress the price…

I don't know. This is madness. There is a second-layer shitcoin market that's currently all the rage on bitcoin, but the bubble has to pop at some point. Its gonna be brutal for them, good for everyone else.

Well it might be enough to answer the question for a lot of people still wondering where miners will get their fees in the end.

Now they just need to work out why will people still be transacting in the future when fees are always so high?  

Turns out it is the same reason as why they do now... but it's OK if they need to work through it.

[philipma1957]

https://mempool.space/block/000000000000000000008ed27e5d18709c450b78367df4bfbf37dd7b9a1fb6ec

Fees are more than block rewards! mempool cost is crazy at the moment!

Is this a way to artificially suppress the price…

I don't know. This is madness. There is a second-layer shitcoin market that's currently all the rage on bitcoin, but the bubble has to pop at some point. Its gonna be brutal for them, good for everyone else.

Actually this is a good thing.

Btc = a large t-bill do not make small moves with it.

Ltc and Doge = small value moves.


So buy small amounts of LTC And DOGE for small money moves.

Stack btc at an exchange until it is at least 1000 value then move it to you wallet. 1000 moved for 20 bucks is not the end of the world.

As for miners  (me) this is a good christmas. 🎄

BTW fees for btc will never be under 5 sats for extend periods of time. once the ½ ing happens.

I know of five or six ways big pools can jack fees at a profit to them.

If a dummy like me knows them the pools also know them.

Simplest one downclock you gear on the first  3 days of a jump. You save on power bigly. You clog the pool.

Fees go up. ⬆️ On fourth day put your gear on full speed.

You pull in bigger fees and more blocks.

That is an unstoppable method. ( I can not conceive of a fix for this)


And that method works better and better as each ½ ing passes.

[Torque]

OT:

I'm so glad to see movie review sites not being paid off by Hollywood anymore to write gushing reviews of terrible movies, and finally getting back to writing brutally honest critical reviews of terrible movies.

https://www.indiewire.com/criticism/movies/rebel-moon-part-one-a-child-of-fire-review-zack-snyder-netflix-1234935678/

There is now no more money left to write woke propaganda in support of terrible woke movies such as Indiana Jones and The British Arsehole Woman.
Hollywood has pretty much died on its ass this year. If it hadn't been for Barbie and Oppenheimer literally almost all Hollywood movies over $100 million can be considered failures this year (Super Mario Bros is a French/Japanese made movie distributed by Universal).

<snip>

--sorry for the long rant.  

In addition to everything that you said, which even most normies these day now realize, they are also changing cinema into "corporate product" built specifically for a future of streaming.

Remember when studios were desperate to trim movies down to 1h:30m, and a series episode to 45m runtime?

Well imagine a world where directors are now being flat out told to pad their movies and tv shows with useless boring filler shots, lengthening their runtime significantly, because the studios will want to "cram as many commercial breaks as we can into them in the future".

That is already happening, without a doubt.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

OT:

I'm so glad to see movie review sites not being paid off by Hollywood anymore to write gushing reviews of terrible movies, and finally getting back to writing brutally honest critical reviews of terrible movies.

https://www.indiewire.com/criticism/movies/rebel-moon-part-one-a-child-of-fire-review-zack-snyder-netflix-1234935678/

There is now no more money left to write woke propaganda in support of terrible woke movies such as Indiana Jones and The British Arsehole Woman.
Hollywood has pretty much died on its ass this year. If it hadn't been for Barbie and Oppenheimer literally almost all Hollywood movies over $100 million can be considered failures this year (Super Mario Bros is a French/Japanese made movie distributed by Universal).

<snip>

--sorry for the long rant.  

In addition to everything that you said, which even most normies these day now realize, they are also changing cinema into "corporate product" built specifically for a future of streaming.

Remember when studios were desperate to trim movies down to 1h:30m, and a series episode to 45m runtime?

Well imagine a world where directors are now being flat out told to pad their movies and tv shows with useless boring filler shots, lengthening their runtime significantly, because the studios will want to "cram as many commercials as we can into them in the future".

That is already happening, without a doubt.

Used to love the long epic 3 hour movie stuff before (I prefer the 3 hour Superman cut over the original 2 versions except for the stupid Lex Luthor "babies" stuff, the rest is fine), but indeed recently it has seemed to me they are now padding things for padding things sake and that probably also disadvantages cinemas heavily.

Killers of the Flower Moon is the perfect example of a movie that could have had more than 1 hour trimmed off from it without losing anything significant. The Irishman I couldn't take after 2 hours in and realising it had another 2 hours to go.
Just too much repetition.

Also with MI7, which I did enjoy, it was not necessary to pad things out that much. Tom Cruise is gone far too long after the jump during the train stuff. The entire intro could have just been the CIA scene with a few images on a screen what had happened, so lose a good 10-15 minutes. I think the reveal of Tom Cruise then works far better also. The other scenes during that 25 minute intro were unnecessary. MI5 Rogue Nation had the perfect intro. Exciting, funny and just got on with it.

[Biodom]

OT:

I'm so glad to see movie review sites not being paid off by Hollywood anymore to write gushing reviews of terrible movies, and finally getting back to writing brutally honest critical reviews of terrible movies.

https://www.indiewire.com/criticism/movies/rebel-moon-part-one-a-child-of-fire-review-zack-snyder-netflix-1234935678/

There is now no more money left to write woke propaganda in support of terrible woke movies such as Indiana Jones and The British Arsehole Woman.
Hollywood has pretty much died on its ass this year. If it hadn't been for Barbie and Oppenheimer literally almost all Hollywood movies over $100 million can be considered failures this year (Super Mario Bros is a French/Japanese made movie distributed by Universal).

<snip>

--sorry for the long rant.  

In addition to everything that you said, which even most normies these day now realize, they are also changing cinema into "corporate product" built specifically for a future of streaming.

Remember when studios were desperate to trim movies down to 1h:30m, and a series episode to 45m runtime?

Well imagine a world where directors are now being flat out told to pad their movies and tv shows with useless boring filler shots, lengthening their runtime significantly, because the studios will want to "cram as many commercial breaks as we can into them in the future".

That is already happening, without a doubt.

I simply refuse to watch anything with commercial brakes in the middle of actual performance (before is OK).
That's why I barely watch TV..maybe cable or streaming of channels with no commercials here and there, like HBO/Max, etc.
For those outside of US: contrary to football (called soccer in US), where there are NEVER commercials during the game (because the game never stops apart from the halftime break), American football and other sports are filled to the brim with in-game commercials, which, to me, make those events largely unwatchable 3 hr affairs.

[darkangel11]

Definitely not the "sell the news" guy.
The small difference in our opinions could be described as follows:

Me-"from the ETF approval flat or down for 3-4 mo, followed by the reversible bump around the halving, then flat until about May-June, THEN a strong, possibly two-humped bull.

@darkangel11: basically LFG...it will be mostly up from the get go because the crowd would be pumped by the Black Rock.

I grant you that your scenario is possible, just because the general public could be enticed to FOMO, but it kind of goes against what I observed in my investment career.
That said, I agree that over long term, this might be a very strong bull, so i don't intend to trade it in-and-out.
At some point, I believe, large Sovereign funds would get involved, as predicted by multiple players.

You said something about 10% reduction in the first months after the approval, which made me think about the "sell the news" theory. Then you said 3-4 m flat, which is more of my gut feeling that nothing will happen until they actually open for business and it's going to be a few months after the approval... BUT I don't underestimate the FOMO. The same FOMO that made people buy like crazy when Musk entered the market with Tesla. It takes just one big player like that Qatar fund that people are gossiping about to enter the market for the FOMO to start. It's all fun and games as long as they buy below 1k bitcoin per trade and everything bigger is OTC.

Since you're talking about movies... I stopped going to the cinema during the pandemic. We bought a 4k tv and a surround sound system and it was such a good decision.
No more watching commercials for 15 minutes before the actual movie starts.
We can pause for bathroom or tea.
We can answer the phone while watching.
So much cheaper especially since the nearest cinema is 15 min by car.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[cAPSLOCK]

https://mempool.space/block/000000000000000000008ed27e5d18709c450b78367df4bfbf37dd7b9a1fb6ec

Fees are more than block rewards! mempool cost is crazy at the moment!

Is this a way to artificially suppress the price…

I don't know. This is madness. There is a second-layer shitcoin market that's currently all the rage on bitcoin, but the bubble has to pop at some point. Its gonna be brutal for them, good for everyone else.

Actually this is a good thing.

Btc = a large t-bill do not make small moves with it.

Ltc and Doge = small value moves.


So buy small amounts of LTC And DOGE for small money moves.

Stack btc at an exchange until it is at least 1000 value then move it to you wallet. 1000 moved for 20 bucks is not the end of the world.

As for miners  (me) this is a good christmas. 

BTW fees for btc will never be under 5 sats for extend periods of time. once the ½ ing happens.

I know of five or six ways big pools can jack fees at a profit to them.

If a dummy like me knows them the pools also know them.

Simplest one downclock you gear on the first  3 days of a jump. You save on power bigly. You clog the pool.

Fees go up. ⬆️ On fourth day put your gear on full speed.

You pull in bigger fees and more blocks.

That is an unstoppable method. ( I can not conceive of a fix for this)


And that method works better and better as each ½ ing passes.

Using LTC and DOGE as a makeshift Layer 2 is certainly a good plan.  For now.  I just paid some webhosting bills for one of my BTC nodes using LTC.  The problem is they have the exact same issue as Bitcoin in the end.  This plan will not work forever.  If everyone starts using Litecoin for little purchases then the fees will explode.

I will resist going into the reason why just making the block size larger will also not work.  But altcoins built on the Bitcoin codebase will eventually fall under their own weight.  Or their fees will go just as high (or conceivably higher).

We have several scaling methods emerging that solve some of the problems of trying to use Layer 1 chains.

Lightning is way better than LTC/Doge because it is working as a completely different network with different tradeoffs from Bitcoin.  We can do literally billions of transactions on Lightning and keep no central permanent database of those transactions.  So no bloated blockchain to drag around, and to cause centralization in the end.  Also this adds some privacy.

Liquid is a blockchain model that is run by people who can do enterprise level file storage, bandwidth and compute (that is if anyone ever uses it).  This blockchain is somewhat centralized by design, and the benefit is the people who run it are incentivized to offer a good fee to do transactions on it.  It has the potential to obsolete both LTC/Doge and ETH.  Because the tradeoffs ALLOW for a giant blockchain.  But we still have the base layer to come home to.

Other scaling projects will emerge, as well as forks of the above two.  But those are the ones that are ready for action today.

I am aware that neither of these two solutions is adopted enough to use in all cases.  This is why I did not web hosting transaction in LTC.  But the sooner the better... because the other plan just doesn't work.  It can't scale.