Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[BitcoinBunny]

Time to load up or time to sing.

[1714259864]

1714259864

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Wekkel]

I do think that this is the correction dump or right side Bart following the recent fake pump.

[...]

Totally reasonable, imo.
When i was entering BTC, i was facing a bear trap that made me sell everything again. A few days later i had to enter at a higher price. That was the day my diamond hands were born.

Lost the most by unplanned selling.

Indeed, only sell with a predetermined plan or .... never sell 

[philipma1957]

And when you thought things couldn't get any weirder your cordless screwdriver starts acting up:

Vulnerabilities on Bosch Rexroth Nutrunners May Be Abused to Stop Production Lines, Tamper with Safety-Critical Tightenings

-> https://www.nozominetworks.com/blog/vulnerabilities-on-bosch-rexroth-nutrunners

Apparently it cost too much to pay a human to check mission critical systems with a analog device now.

*glad I'm not going to be around for this future.

I am lucky 67 all kids are dead.

Just me and the wife.  We had a good amount of fun for years and still have fun now.

If it all collapses in more than 15 years I would be 82 so I caught a break. Compared to most people under 45 at this moment.

[vapourminer]

just had a buy pop at ~41.5k


this ETF stuff is like the most awesomest thingie ever..

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[El duderino_]

Is this god candle in the room with us?

[philipma1957]

just had a buy pop at ~41.5k


this ETF stuff is like the most awesomest thingie ever..

I set my buys a bit too low oh well

40,404
39,398

Maybe we get these.

Maybe not.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

just had a buy pop at ~41.5k


this ETF stuff is like the most awesomest thingie ever..

I set my buys a bit too low oh well

40,404
39,398

Maybe we get these.

Maybe not.

There's this theory by British Hodl that the big buyers are on the sidelines with a few billions waiting for GBTC to bleed out completely. The commission is 1.5% yearly, while the new ETFs have undercut each other and the cheapest of the lot are at 0.15% - one tenth of GBTC's management fee. So GBTC customers will get out of there to get in some cheaper ETF. The buyers are just waiting for this wave of sell orders to reach a price bottom.

Here's the British Hodl guy explaining this in 17 minutes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=reELJVofC3I

A thank you goes to @cAPSLOCK for pointing me to it.

[DaRude]

just had a buy pop at ~41.5k


this ETF stuff is like the most awesomest thingie ever..

I set my buys a bit too low oh well

40,404
39,398

Maybe we get these.

Maybe not.

There's this theory by British Hodl that the big buyers are on the sidelines with a few billions waiting for GBTC to bleed out completely. The commission is 1.5% yearly, while the new ETFs have undercut each other and the cheapest of the lot are at 0.15% - one tenth of GBTC's management fee. So GBTC customers will get out of there to get in some cheaper ETF. The buyers are just waiting for this wave of sell orders to reach a price bottom.

Here's the British Hodl guy explaining this in 17 minutes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=reELJVofC3I

A thank you goes to @cAPSLOCK for pointing me to it.

Who's at 0,15%? Cheapest that i know of is Franklin EZBC at 0,19%
Looks like GBTC had to sell another ~2.000BTC on the 12th or another day of -$88MM outflows, don't have inflow data for the 12th for other ETFs, anyone has a convenient source? There's still over 617k BTC in GBTC hopefully after first week majority would wash trade into other ETFs to save on the fees.

EDIT: Bloomberg is showing -$484,1MM outflow from GBTC on day2 so around -11k coins with inflows to other ETFs staying almost the same as day1

[Biodom]

just had a buy pop at ~41.5k


this ETF stuff is like the most awesomest thingie ever..

I set my buys a bit too low oh well

40,404
39,398

Maybe we get these.

Maybe not.

There's this theory by British Hodl that the big buyers are on the sidelines with a few billions waiting for GBTC to bleed out completely. The commission is 1.5% yearly, while the new ETFs have undercut each other and the cheapest of the lot are at 0.15% - one tenth of GBTC's management fee. So GBTC customers will get out of there to get in some cheaper ETF. The buyers are just waiting for this wave of sell orders to reach a price bottom.

Here's the British Hodl guy explaining this in 17 minutes on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=reELJVofC3I

A thank you goes to @cAPSLOCK for pointing me to it.

That's a "funny" theory.
As Novo explained it...tracking+fee is what matters the most.
If your fee is 0.2%, but your tracking is off 10%, you would not attract anybody.
You have months to decide on this.
The other thing is "crypto bros" are happy to shell out roughly 0.4% for a trade on Coinbase (kraken's are about half of those), which is a 0.8% round trip (on ONE trade).

[Biodom]

Is this god candle in the room with us?

Yes, but it is an invisible one.

[True Myth]

My degenerate buy orders continue.  Thought I was out of powder until next week but, I rallied the troops.

Glad I don't have a S/O to answer to.  I imagine it would go something like this:

Me: "No, we can't go to that fancy restaurant you've been asking about. We don't have the money this week."

S/O: *stares silently with arms crossed*

Me: "Yes, I spent all of our left over money this week on a digital coin... no we can't spend it..."

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[smartcomet]

some proposals for a new poll:


Which BTC price will be reached first, 50k or 40k?

What is the Bitcoin price at halving date?

What is the highest Bitcoin price until halving date?

Will we have new ATH before halving?

If ETFs keep their pace of 0.6B net flow per day ,it will be 60B in 100 days. So  may see ATH before havling.

I guess
50K ,70K ,70K ,Yes.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

[edited out]

GBTC has been trading at a discount since Feb '21 (that's almost 6% in fees from the top) and was -40% just in June '23. It wasn't the inflow from tax accounts that closed that gap down to -1.9% day before approval, but a bet for an ETF. Now those that bought at the discount shall rip the benefit, fillippone had a whole thread on GBTC somewhere

In regards to fillippone's thread, you are talking about this one?

some proposals for a new poll:

[1] Which BTC price will be reached first, 50k or 40k?

[2] What is the Bitcoin price at halving date?

[3] What is the highest Bitcoin price until halving date?

[4] Will we have new ATH before halving?

1) both of those prices are within the don't wake me up zone.

2)  $45k-ish, give our take $10k.      I know that is boring, so my next answer would be $87.5k - give or take $7.5k, which would then surely require my answer to number 4 to be in the affirmative.

3) $87.5k give our take $7.5k

4) based on my answers to 1, 2 and 3, it is almost compelled that I answer yes to this one, but if my first answer is not correct, then my back up answer would be no.

Always do as they do, never do as they say you should do.

Vanguard: "BTC is bad mmkay, it's really volatile, so it's bad as a long term investment"

Meanwhile, Vanguard is number 2 and 3 shareholders of MicroStrategy (15% total) and Coinbase (14% total).

Nice numbers, but where is the sauce to consider them facts? 

Regarding their original statement:
There are also customers and "customers". 

I was thinking that the number one shareholder in Microstrtategies would be Michael Saylor... so is there even 15% available after that?

I see that BitcoinBunny provided the source in his subsequent post.. and surely those articles seem to answer a lot of questions.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[JayJuanGee]

And when you thought things couldn't get any weirder your cordless screwdriver starts acting up:

Vulnerabilities on Bosch Rexroth Nutrunners May Be Abused to Stop Production Lines, Tamper with Safety-Critical Tightenings

-> https://www.nozominetworks.com/blog/vulnerabilities-on-bosch-rexroth-nutrunners

Apparently it cost too much to pay a human to check mission critical systems with a analog device now.

*glad I'm not going to be around for this future.

I am lucky 67 all kids are dead.

Just me and the wife.  We had a good amount of fun for years and still have fun now.

If it all collapses in more than 15 years I would be 82 so I caught a break. Compared to most people under 45 at this moment.

I am thinking that you are referring to the difficulties that younger people are going to have in order to have a good life, if we might presume that there might be a decent number of folks under 45 who are having troubles with the various benefits of contributing into a system such as social security and having both a pension plan and a 401k.. but still there might still be some redemption for those who at least recognize bitcoin, and the more that I write, the more that I consider some of the challenges that are already here and that are likely going to continue to burden the younger folks with the whole degradation of the current fiat system (and the current debt system).. but still bitcoin could well end up facilitate a quite a bit of the transition without necessarily needing to go through as much violence as what had to happen in earlier transitions when the state spends itself into some kind of need for a transition... With bitcoin, the optimist in me causes me to be unsure about whether war will be necessary for such transitioning.

just had a buy pop at ~41.5k

this ETF stuff is like the most awesomest thingie ever..

I set my buys a bit too low oh well

40,404
39,398

Maybe we get these.

Maybe not.

Hard to say.