Well this would explain the high selling in past few days, the only issue I have is that this sell-off has bled into Bitstamp and other major exchanges, currently making it the highest selling volume on 3D chart since November 2022 capitulation. While that was the low in the market, this sell-off has come from a top in the market, and end of week will be a massive bearish gravestone doji if price closes below $44K.
I understand the concept of it being a bear trap, as price could reverse back to the upside when the selling subsides, however part of me feels like the damage has already been done long-term. That of printing an incredibly bearish red candle, given it's the first time in over a year where there is a strong bearish signal - the whole of 2023 never had a realistic bearish signal, only dips and a bit of FUD here and there.
I think short-term likely this will be a bear trap, similar to June 2019, where there was the massive gravestone doji with a -20% wick, and price pumped back to retest resistance over the next two weeks.
Always in the back of my mind is that price has moved from $30K to $48K with zero dips testing support. This means price can return to $30K with ease, as there was no support created on the way up.
If you're a bit worried it's normal because, as you said, this was a big capitulation event. There's a chart showing how many people sell at a loss, you can google it and it shows that this event was one of the 4 largest in the last 3 years which means Wall Street screwed people who were waiting to make a quick buck on the ETF decision.
A lot of newcomers gambled on this. I'm talking about people who never owned any bitcoin and bought some thinking that they're going to make a simple bet. Bloomberg said there's 90% for approval, so they thought they'll have 90% chance to make money. If the world said that there's going to be a dump when ETF gets rejected and it pumped on fake news and then dumped, it's obvious what's going to happen when the real approval or rejection comes. 90% approval chance - 90% people went long. There was an approval, price started pumping, longs started coming in at 46k and all aimed for at least 50k test. All these people who put their bets there got liquidated.
How did Wall Street rape them? ETF companies made a deal with Coinbase to buy OTC using their VIP program, but GBTC used spot price to sell. IMO this was planned to lower the price for institutions coming in. When you want to buy 10k bitcoin getting a spot price lower by $1k leaves a lot of money in your pocket.
Want some silver lining? OTC buyers agree on the price before the buy and they pay premium. They were buying in the middle of this dump, mostly on Friday, and willing to get more than a billion dollars worth of bitcoin at around 45k. They aren't doing it because they think it's not going back above that level. Also, due to the holiday, Grayscale is yet to buy bitcoin for people who wanted to convert GBTC into ETF and will do that next week, unless the plan is to sell spot and buy back OTC like a professional villain
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