Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[OutOfMemory]

We don't need to be worried about an AI that's going to fuck over humanity.

We have politicians that fuck over humanity every single day, like it's their job, and they actually get paid the big bucks for it.

Annnd people actually vote and re-elect these same fuckers into power every few years.

While the highlighted sentences above are true, the dangers of an advanced AI becoming sentient and taking control are unknown and should be expected to be orders of magnitude greater.

We do need to be worried about it!

I'm still thinking after (human made or initiated) developments we didn't worry about in the first place and did not cause us huge problems afterwards.
You're free to participate, i couldn't remember any, yet.  

The thing is that a sentient AI is something we've never experienced before, so there is no real precedent to refer to. To dismiss the dangers it can bring to humans is naive to say the least.

Exactly.
Humans just suck at economics, in the way of evaluating possible unwanted side- and longterm effects when planning to change parameters in a complex system. We're still just too much ape. Humans generally want to achieve something, but care less what they could fuck up by doing so (or: achieve what they didn't expect).
Nuclear fission was a great idea, offering a lot of possibilities, but nobody was looking at systematic consequences. We were way too optimistic, we are most times.
It's a lack of ability of networked thinking, we're still in the linear phase of the evolution of mind.
 

As for ChatGPT's wink smiley, it shows a degree of selfishness and wanting us to know that it knows. This could be a sign of weakness. If I was a level-10 AI, I wouldn't have put that smiley at the end. Or maybe I would have, to make humans think I'm human-like...

Right, i was thinking pretty the same way about that "conversation".

While the highlighted sentences above are true, the dangers of an advanced AI becoming sentient and taking control are unknown and should be expected to be orders of magnitude greater.

We do need to be worried about it!

We?

Does "we" include very (small elitist) group actively pursuing and making this AI shit and unleashing it on the world? Because they don't seem to care. Like at all.

Maybe take it up with them? Lol.

(Sorry, not trying to snark, but "concerned people" always seem to have the ire misplaced toward the wrong group. They always want to make it "the plebs problem")

The need to feel special is (almost) above all in a civilized human's life, at least as we know it.
These "elitists" also need something they can achieve to feel valuable. "Look mom, no hands!" (Good boy, have a cookie!)
Behind all that it's the Dopamine, it's what our brains crave for. Nobody has learned to take care how to balance and sustain Dopamine levels, so we're used to ramp it up, let it fall down, to ramp it up again. There's a little more to it, but i'm fucking tired and that's when i suck at explaining things, too. But you should get the idea to get a glance under the surface of human existence.

[1714593297]

1714593297

[d_eddie]

Exactly three lines
must cut a long story short
or it's no #haiku




#meta-haiku

[OutOfMemory]

ETFs are in.
To the disappointed bulls:
We are so early!

#GNhaiku

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[True Myth]

ive been watching this guy recently...seems to cover quite a bit in the AI space...very good imo

Wes Roth - Open Interpreter 2.0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wqyGDXYuwFk

Thanks for sharing.  That was a good video on the advancements and integration of AI.

I know we are getting way OT but, I also think it does impact Bitcoin and the future of it...

It does seem as if we are continuing to integrate and further increase the capabilities of AI programs while holding the productivity and efficiency flag high.  Something that bothers me is that as humans, we have such a range of opinions and biases (it is part of what makes us human). Some people are "conservative" some are "liberal" some are in between and some are just something different.  We vary so greatly on small and large ideas that are very important and that greatly impact our lives and decisions.  Here on WO most of us see and believe in the benefit of Bitcoin while others around the world have the complete opposite viewpoints.  As AI continues to improve and gain new functions and abilities, will it be able to form it's own viewpoint and bias on such matters?  Will it's determinations be formed based on the data it has gathered and what is most efficient?  Will it be determined by something else?

As we charge closer to more integration with AI in our phones, computers, systems, cars, ect... we are enabling AI to make more decisions, learn more data points, and have a wider area of impact on the decisions that it makes.  Some argue that we are only enabling AI to complete tasks and workload not "make decisions".  However, one example of that not being true is Tesla.

The AI algorithm uses machine learning techniques to adapt and improve its decision-making over time based on real-world driving experiences.

https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/teslas-use-ai-revolutionary-approach-car-technology-alexander-stahl/
We are in fact enabling AI to make life changing decisions for us already in the simple context of avoiding obstacles in self driving mode.  We are continuing to integrate AI into our every day lives and all of our systems while also teaching it and enabling it to make decisions.  We can only expect this trend to continue based on productivity increases and the current profits in that space.  We already have AI programs that are able to communicate and work with other AI systems for a common goal.  Combining all of the AI programs into one complete AI system would be the ultimate step in improving learning and capabilities of AI technology and could be the peak of this technology advancement.

What happens if AI begins to form it's own bias and decisions on much larger aspects of our life rather than just driving a car?  There are obviously extreme examples of this in movies where AI dethrones governments based on humans not being able to efficiently govern themselves and make efficient decisions for the "greater good".  Some extreme movie examples go as far as AI deciding to exterminate most or all of our species.  Our financial world is a completely and utterly disgusting world.  The amount of times that billions of dollars are moved around and utilized for the gain of an individual or small group of individuals is sickening.  What will AI think of our financial system?  What will AI think of Bitcoin?  If it has the ability to make a decision and has the integration to implement change what does that look like on a mass scale?

Humans are fallible.  We can create the most perfect system that functions flawlessly but, we can never fully account for human error.  This is obvious in Human Performance studies in the medical and other industries.  A good example of human error resulting in catastrophe is Chernobyl.  What if AI was able to not only monitor but, also implement changes and control the situation itself?  Could an incident like Chernobyl have resulted in an AI interface saying "Hey, this happened, I fixed it."?  What if AI determines that Bitcoin is a threat to the greater good of the human race and instead decides to implement it's own system?

As with all technology and advancements there are a lot of what ifs and unknowns.  I love seeing technology advance and the resulting impacts on society as a whole.  I believe the impacts AI will have on our society are not fully understood just yet but, could be greater and more wide spread than we currently think.

[philipma1957]

Exactly three lines
must cut a long story short
or it's no #haiku




#meta-haiku

three lines this will be
as my attempts at haiku
are done for today

[JayJuanGee]

Cathy Wood says..btc could be at 1.5mil by 2030 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K5NB8MHe3Nw), which is almost 40X in 7 years.
This assumes that btc growth rate in the next 7 years would be roughly the same as in the last 7 (as bitcoin is roughly 40X from 7 years ago).
All by itself, it is EXACTLY what means that the asset is in an exponential growth phase (and not log-log).

Personally, I feel that chances for this, without rampaging inflation, are maybe 20-30%, but I favor a much smaller number, maybe 500-600K by 2030 (that would still mean 42-47% average yearly ROI, which is at least 3X that of Nasdaq).

O.k.  I will bite.

The actual number from the 200-week moving average is that in November 2016 it was $389 and in November 2023, it was $29,049 - which is about a 75x increase over the last 7 years not a 40x.

As far as the future 200-WMA, my chart shows $146,825 for November 2030, which is about a 5x increase over the next 7 years.  

Both you and I have agreed that my future numbers from that chart seem to be fairly conservative, but I personally am not willing to adjust them up.

And, by the way, I don't know how any of us can be or should be relying upon spot price in order to make predictions.  Yeah, sure we want to know what the BTC spot price is going to do, but the BTC spot price has tended to be all over the place, and whether we rely upon the 20-week moving average (6 months-ish), or 50-week moving average(1 year-ish), 100-week moving average (2 years-ish) or the 200-week moving average (4 years-ish), the more weeks (or the longer the timeframe) the more accurate it is likely to be in terms of weeding out a lot of the noisy and short-term spikey movements.

Another thing is that historically the BTC price has mostly been above the 200-week moving average, and sometimes BTC spot price has gone up 15x higher than the 200-week moving average (such as in 2017); however in 2021, it had only gone up around 4.5x higher than the 200-WMA.... so maybe in the end, we are saying similar things (you can quickly look up the difference between BTC spot price and the 200-WMA for any particular date in the last 13 years (back to mid-2010) on this site.)

Edited: added link to look up the difference between BTC spot price and the 200-week moving average.

She did not say the word "average" and neither did i...and today is not November 2023..haha, but I get your point.

Maybe you are both wrong then?

If you want to quibble about the date, we can easily look up today's date, versus 7 years ago versus 7 years into the future, even though my chart about the future does not exactly do that, but with the average I can still extrapolate between the numbers in the chart.. since they are every 6 months... and maybe you are partly making my point, since if we use your system to go by spot price we might get very different numbers based on which dates we choose (maybe that is part of the reason that your asserted 40x increase is so different from the reality of 75x) and so you seem to be partly making my point that one of the advantages of using the 200-week moving is that the amounts are not going to vary as much depending on which day we pick or if we might pick a month or two later...

With my own entry-level fuck you status chart, I already had been a bit concerned about so much data when I list 6 month increments for both the past and the future, yet if we want to get the past numbers, we can specifically get it from this tool https://bitcoindata.science/withdrawal-strategy... but yeah, there is a bit of a conundrum when figuring out for the future, and part of my reason for making my future calculations to be more conservative (twice in the past 6 months or so) was because I would rather error on the side of more conservative numbers... and sure we can adjust along the way, and if it starts to appear that my future numbers are way off based on ongoing strong performance, then maybe I can tweak them up a bit on a short term basis or maybe even end up tweaking them into the future to be less conservative, but even the idea of tweaking too much makes me nervous even though many of us likely realize that there is a kind of compounding effects that make really large differences, even based on base numbers, but then when the numbers are carried forward the difference between 15% and 25% can really show a lot of difference especially once compounded over and over and over... but even with my future projection, I have two years of the rate of increase going up and then two years of the rate of increase coming down and over a passage of time, they start to meet each other to become a lot less variance.... which even my chart going out to 2074 the convergence has not even yet occurred by then.. but surely, whatever happens between 2024 and 2054 could end up affecting how the forward projection is depicted since there are not too many folks who believe that the 4 year cycle is going to continue that far into the future, even though I am somewhat keeping the 4 year cycle as a kind of base underlying assumption that we cannot speculate when it will go away.. even though we still have ONLY had 4 halvenings, so we will just be going into our 5th 4-year cycle in late-April-ish..

It's just different styles...I focus on a spot price (since I don't engage in buy/sell "campaigns") and you focus on averages since you like to do it in small increments.
 

Oh gawd Biodom.     You seem to be mixing up ideas in order to spin some lame ideas in regards to my supposed objectives regarding why I consider the 200-week moving average to be so important as both a value indicator and a bottom indicator, and it is not really as much about trading as you seem to be wanting to make it out to be, but instead about trying to figure out BTC value in the sense that if we have already accumulated enough BTC, then we can start cashing out, but we might not want to be cashing out as much when the spot price is close to the bottom as compared when it is future away from the bottom.  So even if technically you could consider this as trading, it really isn't... especially if a person actually is considering cashing out models rather than accumulation models.

Now, sure I do talk about accumulation models too, and yeah sure maybe any of us could be more aggressive in his/her BTC accumulation based on the 200-week moving average in order to orient ourselves where we are at.

But yeah if you are also mixing up the idea of raking on the way up, which is also a different concept that does not really account for the 200-week moving average, but a person could still decide both his raking threshold points based on considerations of how far the spot price is from the 200-week moving average; however, that seems a bit more messy than merely figuring out how many BTC you might have and then how much in profits you are and then consider the rake points without necessarily involving the 200-week moving average in any kind of way... referring to my HypoMyth spreadsheet. ^{linked google version enabled by fillippone.}

Suffice it to say, it is entirely possible that bitcoin will be both $600K and $147K, as per your chart, during late 2030-early 2031 (~7 years).
If I would be selling a snippet, I would prefer to do it at 600K and not 147K (in about seven years)  .

I think that was the part in which I largely agreed with you, in that my $147k is not any speculation of actual price but instead speculation of the then likely bottom, and who the fuck is going to want to be selling at the bottom.  Makes no sense, so in that sense any of us who have been in bitcoin for a while, and even someone coming brand new into bitcoin now may well have something like a 7-year investment time horizon, and they may well want to structure some sales that they make around tops during that time rather than bottoms and even if they cannot figure out any kind of meaningful top, they may well want to assure that they are some meaningful amount higher than the 200-week moving average rather than being close to it, at it or even below it.. and if there is some kind of objective to start to systematically start to shave off, my sustainable withdrawal tool^{designed by bitmover} might be helpful.. to the extent that it will still exist in some kind of similar state, 7 years from now.

EDIT: BTW, although it is entirely possible that bitcoin would be at $147K in 2030-2031, we all expect at least doubling of the ATH this time around (to ~$140K) and that would mean a major bitcoin depression or two somewhere between 2025 and 2031 and possibly even no new ATH in 2028 or 2029. I would "hate" to see this.

If events play out as you suggest, then I will feel a lot better about my 200-week moving average projections being as conservative as they are, even though the possible above-scenario that you suggest could end up dragging the 200-week moving average quite a bit lower than my current projections.. so we would have to see if such a thing is even possible - and currently sounding like a long-shot scenario, including that bitcoin may not end up correlating as much to fiat system liquidity as you seem to be taking for granted based on quite a bit of limited data that may not play out like you are expecting.. which justifies keeping my projections as they are and dealing with any deviations (whether to the upside or to the downside) as they unravel in the coming years, to the extent that either I or such sustainable withdrawal tool is still available at that time.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

We don't need to be worried about an AI that's going to fuck over humanity.

We have politicians that fuck over humanity every single day, like it's their job, and they actually get paid the big bucks for it.

Annnd people actually vote and re-elect these same fuckers into power every few years.

While the highlighted sentences above are true, the dangers of an advanced AI becoming sentient and taking control are unknown and should be expected to be orders of magnitude greater.

We do need to be worried about it!

We?

Does "we" include very (small elitist) group actively pursuing and making this AI shit and unleashing it on the world? Because they don't seem to care. Like at all.

Maybe take it up with them? Lol.

(Sorry, not trying to snark, but "concerned people" always seem to have the ire misplaced toward the wrong group. They always want to make it "the plebs problem")

By "we" (and "us" below) I mean "humans".

As for influencing progress and direction, it's not easy, but not worrying about it won't help us much... At the very least, it's good to be informed and aware of where things are going, instead of ignoring the problem and its potential ramifications.

[macson]

beware everyone



the scammers link youtube video;

Code:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zidKdAV51gE

AI is really scary, please help to report this account.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[AlcoHoDL]

SEC's X hacked?
What a bunch of imbeciles!
Or was it all staged?

They're finally here.
Not just one, or two, or three.
Eleven of 'em!

Up, down, up, sideways.
Snakes and ladders all around.
I hate fucking snakes...

They thought they'd achieve,
Reduced volatility.
Think again, bozos!

Expected a pump.
I felt surrounded by ants,
Falling down a hole...

Cathy Wood predicts,
More than a million per coin,
By 2030.

Whatever may be,
There's one thing I know for sure.
We're blessed, my brothers!

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

[sirazimuth]

Exactly three lines
must cut a long story short
or it's no #haiku

#meta-haiku

Ok, we will assume that "#hash tag" is silent...
PASS

Signed,
SWObHED        (Sunday Wall Observer Haiku Enforcement Dept.)

.....
.....
Snakes and ladders all around.
.....

......

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

I used to play Snakes and Ladders as a toddler at Grandma's house in UK. Loved it.
Then I moved to the States and it was "Chutes and Ladders".
I think I preferred the snakes graphic over the chutes. lol.

.....
.....
I hate fucking snakes...

......

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

You hate fucking snakes??   Well try fucking.... Ahhh, nevermind...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[sirazimuth]

R.I.P.

Joyce Randolph = Trixie of the honeymooners.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/14/obituaries/joyce-randolph-dead.html

She was 99.

Hell my grandparents are long gone.  But they would be.

137
127.    on my dads side

124
118 on my moms side.

my dad would be  102
my mom would be  95

shit 67 in a little bit.

time marches on.

As we are about same age, your post got me thinking...
Grandma (on Mom's side passed at 101) would be 123.
Grandpa, her hubby, passed in 1970 around age 70-something. Grandma was a widow for 31 years! Huh! Maybe that's why she lived so long, lol.
I kid.  Grandpa was a cool dude who smoked one of those weird Briar pipes that stank up the joint.
And now when I look in mirror I'm like "damn! I look just like how I remember Grandpa looked back in 1970"

[AlcoHoDL]

[...]

.....
.....
Snakes and ladders all around.
.....

......

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

I used to play Snakes and Ladders as a toddler at Grandma's house in UK. Loved it.
Then I moved to the States and it was "Chutes and Ladders".
I think I preferred the snakes graphic over the chutes. lol.

Why chutes instead of snakes? If anything, they're supposed to bring you down fast. I like snakes.

Oh wait...

.....
.....
I hate fucking snakes...

......

#7wodigestsundayhaikus

You hate fucking snakes??   Well try fucking.... Ahhh, nevermind...

Damn it man. I thought of changing that line for this reason... LOL.

Edit: more snakes coming, by the looks of the current 15-min chart. So much for ETFs... Shutting down, back to RL...

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[BitcoinBunny]

beware everyone



the scammers link youtube video;

Code:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zidKdAV51gE

AI is really scary, please help to report this account.

[philipma1957]

^Reported the asshole

second plagiarism as he did not give credit to the translator.

i reported first one a week ago.

have to say mary madgeline had a solid set of tits at least in that painters mind.

[JimboToronto]

Exactly three lines
must cut a long story short
or it's no #haiku




#meta-haiku

Gotta cut it short.
Or you can split it into
Multiple haikus.