Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion

[UnDerDoG81]

Yeah I am in Germany. Holding for 10+ years. After 1 year of holding its tax free (they wanna change this). But I don’t know how it is when I convert bitcoin into USDT and then later in euro if I wanna cash out fiat. Or buy back.

So I set a sell order at 69k. Doesn’t feel right. But at some point you have to let your kids go.

[1714281171]

1714281171

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[Paashaas]

Yeah I am in Germany. Holding for 10+ years. After 1 year of holding its tax free (they wanna change this). But I don’t know how it is when I convert bitcoin into USDT and then later in euro if I wanna cash out fiat. Or buy back.

So I set a sell order at 69k. Doesn’t feel right. But at some point you have to let your kids go.

Start selling around €200k next year not below €150k.

[goldkingcoiner]

Yeah I am in Germany. Holding for 10+ years. After 1 year of holding its tax free (they wanna change this). But I don’t know how it is when I convert bitcoin into USDT and then later in euro if I wanna cash out fiat. Or buy back.

So I set a sell order at 69k. Doesn’t feel right. But at some point you have to let your kids go.

Why not just sell and buy again? That way no tax on that 'initial' investment sum later, if the law changes.

If you convert to USDT, it still counts the same as if you cashed out. The 1 year law only allows back and forth transactions between wallets that you provably own.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[WatChe]

I wish I was accumulating Bitcoin for last four years then I would be in much better position. Still I am happy with whatever I have. I do agree that selling at this time is not a good option because one might miss bigger piece of cake coming in next few months.
I told you my situation for which I did that and I am happy that BTC has benefitted me and my family in big way.
This help from BTC has taught me a lesson to keep investing in BTC to improve standard of living. 

a bit after the 2017 ath (21k) when btc price had fallen to like 13k usd or so i sold of a good chunk of my stack to augment my retirement plans to the point where i retired years ahead of even my most optimistic estimates.

best decision ever. wife and i are having a blast and no clocks or worries.

only you decide what is best for you and yours.

You are lucky to sell at 13k because AFAIK the price after Dec 2017 ATH went down to 3.5k in Dec 2018.

I fully agree with you that you must have your own strategy with you that tells you whats best for you and your family.

[JimboToronto]

That sounds like a plan. I was also thinking to sell 10% maximum. Question is, would you keep that in USDT?

Why not just keep it in Bitcoin unless you're spending it on a purchase or other payment?

[El duderino_]

That sounds like a plan. I was also thinking to sell 10% maximum. Question is, would you keep that in USDT?

Why not just keep it in Bitcoin unless you're spending it on a purchase or other payment?

bc all depends on your holding

for example a little fiat to cover stuff ain't bad... imagine after 69k ATH... if I didn't sold any for no mather what reason, maybe buy property or travel, supporting live style or whatever... and even if not spending it then there is the possible opportunity of being back lower and still have some dirty FIAT.
But the main main thing is if I didn't sold any and my desire to buy something expensive is there like property or whatever then I just have some cash bc I surely wouldn't sell any there at the 20k ish price we got served for more as a year or so.
sometimes cash is needed for fast decisions and selling some at high prices is logical for such.

Just my thought, keep in mind the biggest amount stays in corn and the maybe opportunity to buy back low is just a thing.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OgNasty]

That sounds like a plan. I was also thinking to sell 10% maximum. Question is, would you keep that in USDT?

Why not just keep it in Bitcoin unless you're spending it on a purchase or other payment?

I'm bullish as hell on Bitcoin and have been for over a decade.  A side effect of it's meteoric rise is that my asset allocation has gotten way out of whack.  I don't want to sell any BTC, but I do feel like there comes a point when it's irresponsible to have so much of your wealth in a single asset.  So I can understand the profit taking.  I also think that moving some capital into dividend paying equities can help you build up your income to be a regular purchaser of BTC instead of a holder. 

[Biodom]

As someone who never sold or took profits since the purchase in 2013, what yall think of the idea to sell 1% at every 10k+? Starting now at 69k and next would be 79k and so on. I don’t need the money thank god. But even though I believe in Bitcoin, I really would like to have something left if ever some black swan event happens, western governments ban cashing Bitcoin out, a hack of the network or whatever. Even though I don’t need the money, if any black swan event occurs, I would love to keep my lifestyle as it is right now. Retired. Traveling. Spending about 2k a month for everything including rent, food, travel costs etc.

What do the long term investors here do? Still 100% in Bitcoin (I am) and forever until the last day?

Edit: The next question is, I would not want to hold fiat on my
Bank account. But I also don’t want stable coins. I don’t want to hold anything the government can take from me.

Edit2: I don’t trust Blackrock and all the others. I find these ETFs fishy. And they COULD have a plan to destroy Bitcoin. That’s why this question.

The main idea is: sell when you must, but "must" could be different.
1% every 10k makes some sense, but these are "artificial" numbers, not corresponding to some "natural" progression.
I am in more of a "sell to pay for something" camp.
However, you are a bit strict with your approach (no banks, no stables, etc).
What's left: gold/silver (physical), residential real estate, including rental projects (worldwide), farm land or farms, timberland/timber.
Selling from bitcoin into equities-strange, but also within reason.

I saw the youtube video (sorry, no link) about a couple of german multimillionaires investing in timber as diversification.
I am amazed by the fact that $2k/mo is enough to live (in Germany, I assume), including traveling and rent.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[d_eddie]

Are y'all going for a quadruple top or something? The collapse on the other side of this is going to be really bad.

Oho! Look who's here! I'm buying the rumor right now...

[UnDerDoG81]

As someone who never sold or took profits since the purchase in 2013, what yall think of the idea to sell 1% at every 10k+? Starting now at 69k and next would be 79k and so on. I don’t need the money thank god. But even though I believe in Bitcoin, I really would like to have something left if ever some black swan event happens, western governments ban cashing Bitcoin out, a hack of the network or whatever. Even though I don’t need the money, if any black swan event occurs, I would love to keep my lifestyle as it is right now. Retired. Traveling. Spending about 2k a month for everything including rent, food, travel costs etc.

What do the long term investors here do? Still 100% in Bitcoin (I am) and forever until the last day?

Edit: The next question is, I would not want to hold fiat on my
Bank account. But I also don’t want stable coins. I don’t want to hold anything the government can take from me.

Edit2: I don’t trust Blackrock and all the others. I find these ETFs fishy. And they COULD have a plan to destroy Bitcoin. That’s why this question.

The main idea is: sell when you must, but "must" could be different.
1% every 10k makes some sense, but these are "artificial" numbers, not corresponding to some "natural" progression.
I am in more of a "sell to pay for something" camp.
However, you are a bit strict with your approach (no banks, no stables, etc).
What's left: gold/silver (physical), residential real estate, including rental projects (worldwide), farm land or farms, timberland/timber.
Selling from bitcoin into equities-strange, but also within reason.

I saw the youtube video (sorry, no link) about a couple of german multimillionaires investing in timber as diversification.
I am amazed by the fact that $2k/mo is enough to live (in Germany, I assume), including traveling and rent.

I left Germany as soon as the Covid madness started. I purchased an apartment in Turkey in 2021 (85k euro) and brought all my stuff from Germany to there. So I dont pay rent for my apartment. The monthly costs of the apartment are 50 bucks for the whole complex (swimming pool, electricity for elevators, security salary etc.). I am still registered in Germany because of the tax free cash out option. Other than that I don’t have anything to do with Germany. So right now I’m living in Thailand for over a year. But heading back to Turkey soon. I’m spending about 1.5 to 2k a month here for rent and eat good food and coffee and stuff. I’m a happy guy if I can keep this lifestyle. Not interested in lambos and yachts and blow. In Turkey I live a real good life for 500-700€ a month due to not paying rent and having no other expenses besides food.

As for the other replies, I would definitely buy back Bitcoin if it drops and we see another bear market. I missed this chance in the last 3 cycles. Even though I am kind of a veteran in holding, the last 3 bear markets were rough and I don’t want to stay on the sideline and watch another one. Also as I said, 11 years in Bitcoin but I still don’t fully believe that Bitcoin is 100% here to stay. As soon as it gets too powerful, the cabals will find a way to get it under control. They are dominating this world for hundreds, maybe thousands of years. They won’t let a crypto coin take the power from them.

[JayJuanGee]

Hi all, long time no log. I've missed you all (except for the idiots).

I had a life-changing BTC theft, I am a  security-oriented kinduva guy. It's a long story, plz don't ask. Three-letter-agencies are involved.

I am also old, quit my job, etc.

The good part? I paid off 10 years of debt with BTC, fixed up my old house, bought a cool 2005 truck. The best part? I gave a $100 paper wallet to a family member. He reported that it was now $3k.

EDIT: I am trying to catch up on two years of posts. Good Stuff, all around!

I am not going to ask, but there are a lot of things in life that suck.  I had a BTC theft that was quite significant in size too, but luckily I was able to retain most of my then stash... so it did not go to a level of losing all of it.. and so I had a period in which I did not want to say anything about the matter, and I still tend to be a bit judicious in some of my revealing of any details - even though it is worth noting that for me, I had come to realize (and recalculate) that I did not need as many BTC as I had accumulated, so there was a path forward in order to reconsider matters, and also to fix a lot of the vulnerable areas.. and mine was largely related to a sims attack and it had several components that were kind of crazy in terms of how sophisticated the attack seemed to be and then even mistakes that I made too... and a few areas in which I just got lucky.. in terms of little quirks that caused the loss to be less than it could have had been.

Hopefully you either were able to retain some coins in order to have a base upon which to rebuild, even if it might not be as much.. or you are ready, willing and able to start to rebuild from scratch.. especially since you already know the value of having coinz.. yet I know that some folks could become disgruntled with some of these kinds of matters, especially if there is something like government involvement or some various kinds of injustices that were involved that might not make a whole hell of a lot of sense.

One time in around 2017 or 2018, I had a person file a small court claim against me that was truly trivial, stupid and the person was truly in the wrong - but feeling self-justified to file a claim for a good/service in the carrying out of a contract, yet in the end I ended up having to pay a judgement for that and it was a pretty small amount, but something that the person truly did not deserve... and so maybe that judgement plus other various complications in running a business and sometimes having various disputes with customers and also sometimes with government agencies wanting to sometimes get extra cuts that seem to be not warranted, and other kinds of problems of people trying to rob your business in various ways - including physical break-ins.. I decided that I was putting way too much time and efforts into something that was not worth the headache.. including that it was costing money and tying up capital.. ... so I guess I am just trying to point out various injustices.. that can sometimes contribute towards of web of considerations and reconsiderations in order to consider another possible road forward.. and yeah, hopefully, bitcoin remains part of your way forward and even resuming accumulation if that might be part of the current better way forward.

As someone who never sold or took profits since the purchase in 2013, what yall think of the idea to sell 1% at every 10k+? Starting now at 69k and next would be 79k and so on. I don’t need the money thank god. But even though I believe in Bitcoin, I really would like to have something left if ever some black swan event happens, western governments ban cashing Bitcoin out, a hack of the network or whatever. Even though I don’t need the money, if any black swan event occurs, I would love to keep my lifestyle as it is right now. Retired. Traveling. Spending about 2k a month for everything including rent, food, travel costs etc.

What do the long term investors here do? Still 100% in Bitcoin (I am) and forever until the last day?

Edit: The next question is, I would not want to hold fiat on my
Bank account. But I also don’t want stable coins. I don’t want to hold anything the government can take from me.

Edit2: I don’t trust Blackrock and all the others. I find these ETFs fishy. And they COULD have a plan to destroy Bitcoin. That’s why this question.

All of that about selling on the way up seems reasonable, but I don't know how you sell and then not end up with some kind of vulnerability in terms of how you are going to keep your money, unless you find someone who will give you physical cash or something similar for your BTC sales.

[edited out]

That sounds like a plan. I was also thinking to sell 10% maximum. Question is, would you keep that in USDT?

That is true.. USDT could be possible.. so then are you keeping it on exchanges or in some wallet.  You can store USDT on Aqua wallet, if you don't want to keep that value on exchanges.

Yeah I am in Germany. Holding for 10+ years. After 1 year of holding its tax free (they wanna change this). But I don’t know how it is when I convert bitcoin into USDT and then later in euro if I wanna cash out fiat. Or buy back.

So I set a sell order at 69k. Doesn’t feel right. But at some point you have to let your kids go.

Start selling around €200k next year not below €150k.

That seems to be fighting with the hypothetical to go that extreme.  So for example, if someone is starting to feel like he can start shaving some off without putting much if any of a burden on his stash, then I don't see any problems with that.. even though you could be correct that getting over €150k is easy peasy... in other words, I don't see any reasons to let the perfect become the enemy of the good... in other words good enough to start selling, but surely the person who is doing the selling has to be able to live with the consequences that he might have had been able to get more if he had waited.. but I surely am not a waiting kind of guy since I think that we can set buy and/or sell orders in such way that the price is coming to us. and so we already planned what we were going to do once the price gets to the spot that we had already set.. which ends up being incrementalist and likely less gambling than if the numbers are set at such heights that may well not end up getting met.

@UnDerDoG81 can also play around with his numbers by plugging them into fillippone's Google spreadsheet that is based on a model that I had presented in this post.

[ChartBuddy]

Explanation
Chartbuddy thanks talkimg.com

[OutOfMemory]

Had to put the Bitcoin earring-tag project on hold. 
My 17 years old trusty, eeePC901 running Windows XP, died today. It's a 9inch minibook, because i have limited space and the "laptop" (more a knee-top... LOL) did fit perfectly in the space above the milling machine (a converted engraving machine, built like a tank).
The thing is beyond repair, i have to look for replacement. What pisses me off is that you can only buy tablets (only one USB port, but i need two) or totally cheap chinese no-name netbooks with small screen sizes up to 10 inch, otherwise i could run windows 10/11 on newer, fanless hardware, which is expected to live longer in the dusty environment.
I hope i can get some appropiate replacement asap.

Shit happens. 

[OgNasty]

Are y'all going for a quadruple top or something? The collapse on the other side of this is going to be really bad.

Oho! Look who's here! I'm buying the rumor right now...

He’s not wrong. The drop from $250K down to $75K is going to be brutal.

[El duderino_]

Are y'all going for a quadruple top or something? The collapse on the other side of this is going to be really bad.

Oho! Look who's here! I'm buying the rumor right now...

He’s not wrong. The drop from $250K down to $75K is going to be brutal.

Such play out would be a gift from heaven

250 - 75/120ish

[JayJuanGee]

Are y'all going for a quadruple top or something? The collapse on the other side of this is going to be really bad.

Oho! Look who's here! I'm buying the rumor right now...

He’s not wrong. The drop from $250K down to $75K is going to be brutal.

Such play out would be a gift from heaven

250 - 75/120ish

That is still pretty specific, and of course a correction from $250k to $120k is barely over 50%, so in that sense $75k would be right around 70%, which seems more realistic.. so gosh, who knows?  We could have several 20% to 50%-ish corrections between here and $250k, but who even says that $250k would be the top, since that is not even quite half of gold's market cap.. ...so maybe more realistic to be thinking some where between $250k and $600k as a reasonable top for this cycle.. even though I still find it difficult to assign very high values to upside scenarios, since I would prefer to error on the side of conservatism.. even i am tentatively thinking that the upside for this cycle could be $2 million or more, with about a 0.5% likelihood... so the other 99.5% of other possibilities would have to be contained below that.... meaning between $70,184 and $1,999,999.99.  Nice if it would end up being a 1 and 8 9s.