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Question: What happens first:
New ATH - 41 (70.7%)
<$60,000 - 17 (29.3%)
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Author Topic: Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion  (Read 26354395 times)
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ChartBuddy
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March 01, 2024, 07:01:19 AM


Explanation
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OutOfMemory
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March 01, 2024, 07:27:14 AM
Last edit: March 01, 2024, 07:42:30 AM by OutOfMemory
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

If I were a day trader I’d be a little concerned that the ETF volumes seemed to have peaked, yet. If we see lower volumes again tomorrow it could be a warning sign. Something to watch for. With the halving right around the corner though I think you’re better off sitting through any short term pain.

FTFY

It's not easy for institutions to shift huge investment sums around like that. Those already invested in spot ETF decided to do so before the SEC gave their thumbs-up, so they had their volumes ready. A part of the money just flew off GBTC to be embraced by Greyscale's (or Grayscale's?) new competitors.
All the other (unlucky) institutional investors have to first get significant investment changes nicked off by directors, shareholders etc. first, while some even still wait if ETFs might be a thing and observe before they decide to get in. So if you were a day trader, you might also be heading for losses by selling too early. But that's what daytraders do. They win, they lose, they win...
As we know here in WO, most are better of by trading market cycles. But if one is the type that is mainly driven by Adrenaline and Dopamine rushes, this would probably bore him/her to death.  
To each it's own, they say...



…and avoid the Kopfkino by getting a new wallet.

Bet I’m not the only one that googled that very cool term.

Didn't hear/read that term in quite some time...

Reason why I had to eat less than ramen.  Angry





Where in the world can i get such recent stats?
Everything i found (so far) is dated back by about two working days.
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March 01, 2024, 07:58:29 AM
Last edit: March 01, 2024, 09:14:43 AM by DirtyKeyboard

ChartBuddy's 24 hour Wall Observation recap
..
All Credit to ChartBuddy

Monthly on hold for a minute, imgur giving problems.

EDIT: Look at me, so quick to blame others.  I fubared something, and can't fix it right now.
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March 01, 2024, 08:01:17 AM


Explanation
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March 01, 2024, 08:32:24 AM
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https://twitter.com/DTAPCAP/status/1763438615198142822
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March 01, 2024, 09:01:21 AM


Explanation
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greensheep
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March 01, 2024, 09:28:02 AM

Does anyone care to explain or know how these ETF's work?
Do they hold indefinitely?
Do they sell at x y Z % profit?
Do they sell when the clients(boomers) say sell?
Or is the fund manager in control?
Do they actively trade too?

Thanks,
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March 01, 2024, 09:40:49 AM
Merited by El duderino_ (2), JayJuanGee (1)

I was just having a read through some of the recently released email history between Satoshi and Martii 'Sirius' Malmi. I only just became aware of these, so thought I'd share in case others had missed/are interested:

https://twitter.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1761040089075888292

One question I've always had is why he picked 21 million? Why not a round number, like 50m or 100m? And why is a Satoshi 100 millionth of a BTC and not a 10 millionth or a 1,000 millionth? Did he make assumptions about future value and therefore the minimum required 'value' of a satoshi relative to fiat?

Curious.
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March 01, 2024, 09:43:59 AM
Merited by vapourminer (1), JayJuanGee (1)

Blacrock neutralized Greyscale record outflows yesterday. With this pace by the end of the year Greyscale will be no more on the ETF market. I doubt that all ETF companies will survive Blackrock's competition.

https://twitter.com/BitMEXResearch/status/1763474314609766412

strawbs
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March 01, 2024, 09:46:19 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

Does anyone care to explain or know how these ETF's work?
Do they hold indefinitely?
Do they sell at x y Z % profit?
Do they sell when the clients(boomers) say sell?
Or is the fund manager in control?
Do they actively trade too?

Thanks,

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-etfs-explained-what-are-they-how-do-they-work-1032961880?op=1
BitcoinBunny
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March 01, 2024, 09:50:00 AM
Merited by JayJuanGee (1)

I was just having a read through some of the recently released email history between Satoshi and Martii 'Sirius' Malmi. I only just became aware of these, so thought I'd share in case others had missed/are interested:

https://twitter.com/pete_rizzo_/status/1761040089075888292

One question I've always had is why he picked 21 million? Why not a round number, like 50m or 100m? And why is a Satoshi 100 millionth of a BTC and not a 10 millionth or a 1,000 millionth? Did he make assumptions about future value and therefore the minimum required 'value' of a satoshi relative to fiat?

Curious.


You've probably done a Google but this Quora (such an awful awful site...) answer seems plausible.


Quote
There has been a lot of speculation why the number 21 was chosen.

It could be symbolic. In 2008 the global M1 money supply was estimated at $21 trillion.

An interesting explanation was suggested by Christian Seberino in 2018.

21 million was chosen in order to involve floating-point arithmetic. The maximum integer that can be represented with 51 bits is just slightly over 2100 trillion.

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March 01, 2024, 09:54:35 AM
Merited by Paashaas (1)


Yes please.
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March 01, 2024, 09:56:43 AM
Last edit: March 01, 2024, 10:24:29 AM by BitcoinBunny
Merited by JayJuanGee (1), d_eddie (1)

Does anyone care to explain or know how these ETF's work?
Do they hold indefinitely?
Do they sell at x y Z % profit?
Do they sell when the clients(boomers) say sell?
Or is the fund manager in control?
Do they actively trade too?

Thanks,

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/bitcoin-etfs-explained-what-are-they-how-do-they-work-1032961880?op=1



Your mommy and daddy gave you 10 dollars to buy Bitcoin.
But you don't quite understand how Bitcoin works or think it's dangerous to hold the Bitcoin yourself.
You get annoyed because you can see Bitcoin's value go up and up and you still have not bought any.
You smash your He-Man action figure against the wall in rage.

Now Johnny comes along and has a Bitcoin ETF, he says:
"Don't do that to your He-Man action figure, instead buy Bitcoin via myself and you will have all the He-Man action figures in the world."

ETFs have been approved by the government investment daddy.
You give Johnny the 10 dollars to invest in Bitcoin and he takes care of the rest, taking a small percentage of your 10 dollars.
That's how Johnny makes his money but Johnny HAS TO BUY enough Bitcoin to cover the rest of your initial 10 dollars.
Your investment still tracks the current price.
Johnny will take care of hodling the Bitcoin, the access keys, wallet management etc.
Johnny is pretty reputable usually as he has created other approved ETFs in the past for gold for example and other people bought that too.

When you ask Johnny for your investment, he will give it to you and sell the Bitcoin also.
The Bitcoin amount will be the same as when you bought in, but your investment can have gone up or down.

As always, it is probably still safer to buy the Bitcoin yourself and hold direct access.
But if you're five, maybe Johnny is the better option.

ChartBuddy
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March 01, 2024, 10:01:18 AM


Explanation
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Gachapin
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March 01, 2024, 10:02:51 AM
Last edit: March 01, 2024, 10:23:08 AM by Gachapin

Guys, a stupid question. I had the paper with my seed phrase on the bed and used my iPhone in my hand to enter the PIN code of my ledger. These 2 minutes my iPhone camera was probably directed towards my seed phrase. Should I be worried? Or am I good? Is NSA watching and has my seed phrase already? Please only serious answers.

Edit: I’m in Thailand right now and using True 5g mobile provider. And German citizen. Nothing to do with the US government.
You don't have to worry because even if you have used your iPhone towards your seed phrase that doesn't mean you should worry about it at all. However, if you're someone who thinks a lot and fears a lot then I suggest you to create a new wallet and write your seed phrase once again on paper. NSA doesn't really have much time to watch everyone, it's just a fear that's pushed into our minds. Just relax and follow the steps that I suggested, you'll be 100% safe and you won't have to even worry about NSA or anyone else.


I have to ask UnDeRDog81 why on earth did you have your seed out in the first place?



The PIN code to access my ledger is written on the same paper lol. So far I’m good. I think I’m too paranoid. I did all the stamping of the seed phrase on washers thing. Twice. And now I’m in a foreign country. Risk of losing my seed phrase (the paper) is a possibility if I create a new wallet. Not even 100% sure if the camera was pointed on the seed or not. But yes I agree, maybe if I get too much Kopfkino I will create a new wallet. But if they were really watching it would have been gone already I think.


I doubt that. I think the NSA has access to a bunch of sensitive passwords. But rogue employees probably face a 100 year sentence for treason, if they used them.
Also it's not the agencies employees watching and collecting the data.  It's all 100% automated.
These agencies have huge databases, probably with pics from within every home in the US (taken with peoples smartphones) but in general they only gonna see through data in cases it's of interest for them.
Don't make the mistake to think they don't collect trivial data. It's just a problem of data storage. And I believe they figured that one out..
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March 01, 2024, 10:17:11 AM
Merited by Hueristic (1), JayJuanGee (1)


Watching this model it really looks like we had the worst bear market ever in this cycle,  with BTC being undervalued like never before in history.  That'd actually make sense with all these fake BTC being sold and the many lender crashes afterwards..

Wouldn't be surprised too much, if S2F had a great comeback...
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March 01, 2024, 10:32:49 AM

Google Gemini's five year old ETF explanation. I prefer mine.  Angry

Quote

Absolutely! Here's a way to explain Bitcoin ETFs to a five-year-old:

Imagine a special treasure box

This box holds something called Bitcoin. It's like invisible money that people use on computers.
A Bitcoin ETF is like a club that takes care of the treasure box.
Instead of buying the whole box, you can buy tiny pieces of the club, like stickers!
How does it work?

When you buy a sticker from the club, it helps them buy more Bitcoin for the treasure box.
If the value of the Bitcoin in the box goes up, your sticker becomes worth more, just like if the treasure gets shinier.
But if something happens and the Bitcoin loses value, your sticker might be worth a little less.
Why is it special?

Grown-ups like using Bitcoin ETFs because it's an easier way to get some of that invisible Bitcoin treasure without having to figure out how to buy it and keep it safe themselves.
Let me know if you'd like to learn more about the treasure called Bitcoin!
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March 01, 2024, 10:40:41 AM


Watching this model it really looks like we had the worst bear market ever in this cycle,  with BTC being undervalued like never before in history.  That'd actually make sense with all these fake BTC being sold and the many lender crashes afterwards..

Wouldn't be surprised too much, if S2F had a great comeback...

S2F projections would have been valid last cycle if China Ban and FTX fraud wouldn't have happened, some analysts said (maybe even PlanB himself, IIRC).
The current cycle was projected to reach between $300k and $450k, somewhere after 2018. With Spot ETFs in place, this could be exceeded, but i have more trust in the old numbers. So, yes, the most bearish cycle so far should have been the last one, but it should somehow compensate later, according to economic theories.
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March 01, 2024, 11:01:19 AM


Explanation
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March 01, 2024, 11:28:35 AM

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